Fred Thompson

Historical Reality Of Iowa (Top Three) And New Hampshire (Top Two) Are The Only Choices For Presidential Nomination Of Either Party

All of the candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination contend they will go on, even if they perform poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire.

But the historical reality is that unless one ends up in the top three in Iowa AND the top two in New Hampshire, there is no future for such a candidate.

The only exceptions are Bill Clinton in 1992 in Iowa in 4th place behind “favorite son” Tom Harkin, “Uncommitted”, and Paul Tsongas, but Harkin winning 76 percent of the vote; and John McCain, who in 2008 in Iowa ran behind Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, but lost to Thompson for third place only by a total of 424 votes. NEVER has anyone in either party ending up lower than second place in New Hampshire won the Presidential nomination of either political party!

Thus, only five Iowa third or fourth place finishers have ended up winning New Hampshire and being the nominee: Bill Clinton fourth in 1992, Michael Dukakis third in 1988, George McGovern third in 1972, John McCain fourth in 2008, and George H W Bush third in 1988.

So, assuming the polls are correct, Jon Huntsman (not really competing in Iowa), Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and probably Newt Gingrich, are “toast”, with Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and probably Rick Santorum (due to a late surge at the proper time), the real contenders in New Hampshire.

That would mean that Rick Santorum would become the candidate of the “social conservatives”, but the odds are that Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire and go on to become the GOP nominee for President in 2012 against President Obama!

Tom Ridge Endorsement Of Jon Huntsman An Interesting Development In Light Of Poor Poll Performance of Huntsman: Is There Still Hope For Mainstream Republicans?

The endorsement today of Jon Huntsman, former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China, for the Republican Presidential nomination, by former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, who also was our first head of the Homeland Security Department under President George W. Bush, is an interesting, and possibly revealing, development!

With Huntsman so low in the polls, only one or two percent, and in danger of being eliminated from future Republican debates as a result, it would seem odd that Ridge, a reputable moderate, would bother endorsing him, when it seems like a lost cause.

But, as has been said earlier in other posts, one must remember that John McCain in 2007 and John Kerry in 2003 looked hopeless at this point of those Presidential campaigns, and instead, Howard Dean and Wesley Clark in 2004 and Rudy Guiliani and Fred Thompson in 2008 looked like the favorites as rivals for the Presidential nominations of their parties.

So to assume that Rick Perry and Mitt Romney might be the frontrunners all the way is a major gamble in many ways!

With Huntsman easily the best candidate in the race, and with solid foreign policy credentials that no one else has, it might be said that former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty’s endorsement of Romney, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval endorsements of Perry might be a major blunder!

Again, IF the GOP nominates Huntsman, and fights the Tea Party influence, they have a golden opportunity to defeat Barack Obama! If not, it is a lost cause in an almost certain way!

The Lack Of Reliability of September Third Year Presidential Polls: Wesley Clark And Rudy Guiliani!

The tendency to believe presidential election polls in the fall of the third year of a Presidential term comes back, as we enter September, with Rick Perry having a growing lead over Mitt Romney for the Republican Presidential nomination.

In 2004, former Army General Wesley Clark was leading polls for the Democratic nomination, and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean was seen as the favorite by the end of the year, but Senator John Kerry won the nomination.

In 2008, former NYC Mayor Rudy Guiliani led in September for the Republican nomination, with Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee in second place, but Senator John McCain was the nominee.

So it is not yet smart to assume that Perry or Romney have the Republican nomination for 2012 guaranteed!

With both John Kerry and John McCain being “dark horses” at this point in 2004 and 2008, keep your attention on former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman as the “dark horse” of the race, with excellent credentials and centrist tendencies, but extremely low poll ratings.

If Huntsman emerges, it will be a John, but with a different spelling as Jon, who will have been the surprise of the Presidential campaign for the third straight election!

But also realize that both John Kerry and John McCain lost their races to George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and the odds of Huntsman to become President, while better on paper than any other Republican candidate, have to be seen as a long shot!