The tendency to believe presidential election polls in the fall of the third year of a Presidential term comes back, as we enter September, with Rick Perry having a growing lead over Mitt Romney for the Republican Presidential nomination.
In 2004, former Army General Wesley Clark was leading polls for the Democratic nomination, and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean was seen as the favorite by the end of the year, but Senator John Kerry won the nomination.
In 2008, former NYC Mayor Rudy Guiliani led in September for the Republican nomination, with Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee in second place, but Senator John McCain was the nominee.
So it is not yet smart to assume that Perry or Romney have the Republican nomination for 2012 guaranteed!
With both John Kerry and John McCain being “dark horses” at this point in 2004 and 2008, keep your attention on former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman as the “dark horse” of the race, with excellent credentials and centrist tendencies, but extremely low poll ratings.
If Huntsman emerges, it will be a John, but with a different spelling as Jon, who will have been the surprise of the Presidential campaign for the third straight election!
But also realize that both John Kerry and John McCain lost their races to George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and the odds of Huntsman to become President, while better on paper than any other Republican candidate, have to be seen as a long shot!