Electoral College

Ted Cruz Gives Up His Canadian Citizenship! The Question Is Why?

Ronald 3 Comments

Texas Tea Party Republican Senator Ted Cruz, a clearly ambitious seeker of the Presidency in 2016, has given up his dual citizenship as a Canadian citizen.

Born in Canada of a Cuban immigrant father and an American mother, and living in Calgary for his first four years, Cruz has, therefore, repudiated the nation in which he was born!

The question is why, as it is not unusual for someone to be a dual citizen of two nations, and to be proud of where he or she was born, as well as where he or she lives in the present.

It is not as if Canada is an unfriendly nation, or a dictatorship, or that Cruz has bad memories up to age 4 in his homeland.

So it is clear that Cruz is doing this to try to make people forget he was NOT born in the United States, and hopes to bypass questions about his citizenship, and ability to run for President.

It is ironic that Cruz is worried about this, when his supporters claim there is no problem, while at the same time, these same “Birthers” continue to assert that Barack Obama was born in Kenya, not Hawaii, despite the newspaper reports of his birth, and his Hawaii birth certificate.

It is not totally clear that Cruz can run, but since his mother is American, it is thought that he can run, based on his mother’s citizenship.

But it all comes down to this: Ted Cruz would give up his soul, if need be, to become President of the United States!

However, Senator Cruz, be assured that even if you, somehow, became the GOP nominee, with your hateful, divisive, despicable views on every subject imaginable, there is no way you are going to win 270 electoral votes, the number needed to become President.

So dream on, but you will remain in the Senate, until, hopefully, San Antonio Congressman Joaquin Castro, who is Mexican American, runs against you in the midterm elections for Congress in 2018, and retires you from public office as someone who contributes nothing positive to American politics. Rather, you are one of the most divisive characters in American politics since Joseph McCarthy, to whom you have an amazing facial resemblance, as well as personality!

Jon Huntsman Hints That He Might Run For President Again In 2016

Ronald 2 Comments

Former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman will give the commencement address at the University of Wisconsin in Madison on May 17th.

He has also been interviewed recently by Larry King on his online PoliticKing series, with the interview available on You Tube!

He is involved in leadership of a group called NO LABELS, which purpose is to stop the divisiveness on Capitol Hill and bring solutions to our domestic and foreign policy problems.

Barack Obama was concerned that Huntsman might be the GOP Presidential nominee in 2012, and has very high respect for him.

This author has certainly made clear over the years of his blog of his admiration and respect for Jon Huntsman, who he sees as the ONLY legitimate candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2016. He is very knowledgeable, very informed, very impressive as a public speaker, has a handsome manner about him, a warm personality that fits what we need in the Presidency in the future, if there is to be a viable alternative to Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden. When one compares Huntsman to ANY other Republican who might run for President, they all come across as laughable by comparison. Their intelligence level, their compassion, their understanding of what really affects the middle class and the poor, and their understanding of the world, all demonstrate massive gaps!

No one else has his breadth of experience, particularly in foreign policy, so important for the next term, other than Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, but he also has proved he can lead as Governor and get things done.

His problem is the right wing extremism of the Republican Party, and the evil Tea Party Movement, which are likely to prevent any chance of his being a serious candidate for the nomination, unless he chooses to run as an independent or third party candidate, but if he does that, it will insure the Democrats, who have the edge in the Electoral College anyway, will keep the White House!

The Republicans’ Last Stand For The Senate, 2014!

Ronald 1 Comment

The year 2014 is the last time that the Republicans have an opportunity to gain control of the US Senate, having lost it in 2006, and failing to regain it in 2008, 2010, and 2012.

Nate Silver believes that the GOP MIGHT gain control of six seats needed to make a majority, but does not predict more than that!

The reason for that is that the Democrats have to defend 21 seats, while the Republicans only have 15 seats to defend, all due to the good Democratic year of 2008, when Barack Obama helped to keep a Democratic majority in the Senate, at the time of his first election.

But in 2016, the Senate will have only 10 Democratic seats facing election, while the Republicans will have 24, and that guarantees that, even if the Republicans gain a slight majority and control in 2014, that they will lose it for sure in 2016, with a strong Democratic Presidential nominee and the Electoral College greatly favoring the Democrats for the White House.

But do not assume that the Democrats will actually lose six seats, and realize that ObamaCare will become a popular and positive move in the coming months, with over 6 million now covered by it, and many former critics, who had listened to GOP propaganda and right wing talk show hosts, realizing how good a plan it really is, and a true life saver for millions!

And If Barack Obama can have some luck and skill in foreign affairs over the next seven months, as with possible resolution of the Ukraine crisis with Russia, then all bets are off on the GOP gaining the Senate in 2014.

But again, even if they do, the GOP will NOT have control for more than two years, and 2016 will see a major Democratic resurgence in the upper chamber!

Four Years Of ObamaCare: Over 5 Million SIgned Up, And Now Irreversible Law!

Ronald 8 Comments

It is now four years since ObamaCare, the Affordable Care Act, became law, and over 5 million people have signed up since October 1 of last year, despite the flawed beginnings of the website.

ObamaCare is here to stay, but will certainly need adjustments and tweaking as it grows further, just like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicare Part D needed to make such changes.

The Republican Party has attempted to end ObamaCare by over 50 votes in the House of Representatives, but it has been for naught, since the Senate is presently Democratic.

But even if the Republicans were to win the Senate and keep the House in the 2014 midterm elections, ObamaCare will not end, as President Obama has the power of the veto, and there is no chance that a two thirds override of a Presidential veto could ever occur.

So the GOP is looking ahead to their vision of winning both houses of Congress AND the Presidency in 2016, but their chances of that occurring are miniscule to zero, as ONLY if they were to nominate Jon Huntsman, would there be even a chance of defeating Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or any other Democrat, with the Electoral College heavily tilted in favor of the Democratic nominee, with the Republicans refusing to change their tune in their attitudes towards women, Latinos, African Americans, labor, the poor, the young, and the elderly.

The GOP is self destructive, and to imagine that they would be willing to repeal all aspects of ObamaCare, taking away health care from millions, and denying senior citizens the closing of the “donut hole” on prescriptions; the end of children being covered under their parents’ plans until age 26; the end of coverage for people with pre-existing conditions and no more lifetime coverage; and many other benefits that have already helped many people who never had health care coverage before ObamaCare, is truly a sign that they do not give a damn about the health of the American people.

This is particularly so with the fact that ObamaCare is far less advanced than Hillary Care was in the 1990s, when Republicans fought it and defeated it in 1994, with the Heritage Foundation–Bob Dole-Newt Gingrich Republican plan which, in many details, became RomneyCare in Massachusetts in 2006, and then was suddenly no longer acceptable once Barack Obama moved to adopt it as a compromise from the concept of Medicare For All or the “public option”, both more “radical”, while ObamaCare allows private health care companies to control the market place.

The GOP has lost all credibility, and in the long run, if not the short run, when the American people finally “get it”, what that party is doing, they will suffer electorally in a massive way!

The Coming GOP Battle Between Ted Cruz And Rand Paul: Neither Good For The Republican Party!

Ronald 6 Comments

It is now clear, after the CPAC convention, that the battle for the soul of the Republican Party is, most likely, to be between Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.

Cruz represents the aggressive, in your face, bombastic image of the Tea Party, while Paul represents the libertarian, isolationist view of the same Tea Party.

Both hate the national government, and both want to cut domestic social spending, and have no desire to deal with the problems of the working class and the poor.

Both want to undermine the GOP establishment, and work against the idea of working with President Obama, and accepting that part of politics is negotiation and compromise.

Both men have very little ability to win a national election, as both are seen as extreme, and unable to take “Blue” states away from the Democrats.

Both appeal to those who want to put America back in the age of laissez faire of the Gilded Age, and want to assist the one percent who have become more wealthy and powerful at the expense of the middle class.

Cruz has a demagogic manner about him, reminding many of Joseph McCarthy in appearance and style, but he is seen as dangerous because despite his egotism, he is clearly very smart. However, he is willing to throw other Republicans “under the bus”, with his working against fellow Texas Senator John Cornyn, and also resisting Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, as well as attacking past Republican Presidential nominees Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. Cruz has no ethics when it comes to pursuing his own ambitions, and he is extremely vain and arrogant. Imagining him dealing with foreign leaders is an absolute horror!

Paul, on the other hand, supports the idea that businesses should be able to reject customers based on race, being critical of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. He is a libertarian like his dad, former Texas Congressman Ron Paul, and believes that philosophy is realistic in the 21st century. He would love to cut defense spending enough so that we would withdraw from many of our bases around the world , an appealing idea, but not a realistic one. He comes across as more a visionary than Cruz, more pleasant than Cruz, willing to give respect to the elder statesmen of the party, and work with Establishment Republicans in the Senate, while disagreeing with them. He seems, overall, not as bright and ambitious as Cruz is.

Both are horrible choices for President, and both would lose, but the feeling is that Cruz is more of a threat, although the belief is that he would crash and burn, once the election campaign was in full swing. It seems likely that Paul would do better in electoral votes, and would be more liked personally, but still could not win a national election.

The ultimate question is why the Republican Party seems incapable of finding a truly great Presidential candidate, although in the long run, that does not matter as the Electoral College math dooms them in 2016, as long as they continue to alienate many major voting groups.

So the decline of the GOP, by a massive electoral defeat in 2016, seems more likely as the clock ticks toward the election year!

CPAC Convention: The Lunatic Right Displays Itself!

Ronald 39 Comments

Watching, listening, and reading about the Conservative Political Action Conference makes anyone with a stable mind roll his eyes in wonderment at what conservatism has become!

All the losers of the past were there and ranting and raving their insanity, including Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Paul Ryan, and Mike Huckabee. The “newcomers”,” people not yet defeated but soon to be, including Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal and Chris Christie, also appeared, and made fools of themselves. Of course, the ultimate lunatic and embarrassment, Donald Trump, also spewed his sick mind and constant need for attention. And to top it off, Sarah Palin is making an appearance, as if any sane, intelligent person cares! And Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, desperately trying to keep his seat, showed up brandishing a rifle, a horrible image for a Senate leader to display just a year after the Sandy Hook Massacre!

Jeb Bush and Scott Walker stayed away, for both a smart move, and Jon Huntsman was also not there, and at least for Bush and Huntsman, who are the most mainstream of this group of characters, it made sense NOT to be there!

Speaker of the House John Boehner was not invited, which should really be seen as a blessing, as he has upset right wingers by being exasperated with the Tea Party Movement, for making his job absolutely impossible in the lower chamber.

It is still reality that ONLY Jeb Bush and Jon Huntsman would have ANY chance to be elected over Hillary Clinton in the Presidential Election of 2016, but not very good odds for either of them. And again, let this author repeat, that the Electoral College strongly favors ANY Democrat to win the White House, and as long as the GOP alienates African Americans, Latinos, women, and many young voters, it will not win the White House. And as long as it fights the idea of national health care coverage for all; acceptance of gay rights and same sex marriage; opposition to immigration reforms; favors the energy industry over the environment; and continues to fight against a living wage for the poor and middle class, it will lose for the long term future! And if it continues to promote religion and theocracy, it will NEVER win the White House ever again, in a nation that believes in separation of church and state!

So those of us who care about our fellow Americans can sit and observe the CPAC Conference, and feel good that the potential candidates and the Republican party are sealing their doom for 2016 and beyond!

John Kasich For Republican Presidential Nomination? Not To Be Overlooked!

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As the Republican Party seeks a potential Presidential nominee for 2016, one that is starting to come to mind is Ohio Governor John Kasich, elected in 2010.

Kasich is a very engaging person, who served 18 years in Congress, including heading the House Budget Committee in the mid 1990s, and working for gun regulations against the wishes of the National Rifle Association. Kasich has always shown an independent streak, and also was a substitute on Fox News Channel talk shows for Sean Hannity and Bill O’Reilly, and briefly, had his own show, often making more sense than the typical right wing hosts on that cable channel.

Kasich has made mistakes as Governor, including the attempt to curb collective bargaining rights for labor, soundly defeated in a referendum; and rejecting funding for a high speed rail project; and his 2010 gubernatorial victory over Governor Ted Strickland was won by only 77,000 votes statewide. Like any politician, one can find weaknesses in his record and background, but he could give any Democratic Presidential nominee a good challenge, although the Democrat would still be heavily favored, ultimately, in the Electoral College.

Kasich had a business career in the first decade of the 21st century after leaving Congress, so he has had Congressional experience, business experience, and state government experience, and has decided, unlike most Republican governors, to allow expansion of Medicaid. He has also refused to align himself with the Tea Party Movement, which is in his favor.

Considering that Ohio is a true “swing ” state that could go either way in future Presidential elections, Kasich would have a good chance to perform better than many other potential GOP candidates, and considering that Ohio had six Republican Presidents from the 1870s to the 1920s, the “Buckeye” state cannot be ignored, so should Kasich win another term as Governor, he would have to be considered seriously for President, which he briefly sought in 1999 before dropping out.

Since personality and communication abilities really matter, Kasich should be in the front of the pack. Even if one does not agree with Kasich, it is hard not to like him personally, something one cannot say about many of the potential GOP Presidential candidates!

The Presidential Election Of 2016–257 Democrats, 206 Republicans, Five States (75) Swing States!

Ronald 38 Comments

With Chris Christie, the New Jersey Governor, starting to lose public support due to the multiple scandals emerging in the past two weeks, the Republican Party is in crisis mode, as Christie was thought to have the best chance to defeat Hillary Clinton, or any other Democrat in the Presidential Election of 2016.

In actual fact, Christie had no real chance to win, and it was highly unlikely that he could have emerged from the primaries and caucuses as the nominee of his party, in the first place.

The facts have been there all along: the Democrats are a lock to win the Presidency in 2016 and beyond, with their support from Hispanics-Latinos, African Americans, women, labor, young people, educated people who believe in science, and those who believe in the promotion of gay rights, including marriage, whether they are gay or lesbian or straight in their sexual orientation!

The Electoral College is a “fait accompli” for the Democrats, with a guaranteed 257 electoral votes to 206 for the Republicans! Only five states are truly in play, and the Democrats won all five in 2008 and 2012, and are likely to win most, if not all of these five states, in 2016!

These states are:

Florida 29 electoral votes
Ohio 18 electoral votes
Virginia 13 electoral votes
Colorado 9 electoral vote
Nevada 6 electoral votes

This is a grand total of 75 electoral votes in dispute!

So If the Democrats win Florida, or Ohio, or Virginia, they win the Presidency!

If they win Colorado and Nevada together, with none of the other three, they win the Presidency!

To believe that the Democratic nominee will not win the small number of 13 electoral votes needed to win the required number of 270, requires one to be in hallucination!

Face the facts: The Democrats will win the White House in 2016, no matter who is their nominee, and since any likely candidate will be white, not African American as Barack Obama is, just makes the job of winning somewhat easier!

Of course, if the Democratic nominee wins all five of the above states in contention, then that person wins 332 electoral votes to 206 for the Republican nominee.

This is precisely the electoral vote in 2012!

And realize that Texas (38), Georgia (16). and North Carolina (15) all are moving toward the likelihood of Democrats winning their electoral vote by 2020, if not 2016, and North Carolina having gone for Barack Obama in 2008, if not in 2012!

So were these states to switch, not likely but possible in 2016, the electoral vote in 2016 could be as high as 401-137!

The Most Significant Long Range Events Of 2013

Ronald 1 Comment

Now that we are in the last day of 2013, it is time to reflect on what the most significant long range events of 2013 are, events that will affect us in the future, and are signs of progress, which can never be reversed.

They include in no special order:

The accomplishment of national health care, a dream since Theodore Roosevelt first mentioned the concept in his Progressive Party campaign in 1912, later suggested by Harry Truman, partially enacted by Lyndon B. Johnson, attempted by Bill and Hillary Clinton unsuccessfully, promoted by Senator Ted Kennedy, and finally becoming law under Barack Obama. Even with all of the kinks and quirks now and in the future, national health care is here to stay, finally making America reach the stage of all other democracies in the world, but as usual the last to adopt social and economic reform, as compared to Europe, Canada, and Australia.

The acceptance by the Supreme Court of the concept of gay marriage, and the expansion from nine to eighteen states of acceptance of same sex marriage, and nothing will ever reverse what has happened, and eventually, the Supreme Court will mandate its legality throughout America, just as they did for interracial marriage in 1967. Many may not like it, but just as with interracial marriage, one does not have to engage in either interracial or same sex marriage, but it is nobody’s business to tell someone else who he or she is to love and to have the benefits of marriage, and no religious institution needs to accept it, as civil marriage will always be available.

The civil war raging in the Republican Party, which will determine if the party of Lincoln, TR, and Ike will survive or go into the dustbin of history, which Is certain, if the right wing Tea Party Movement is allowed to take over the party apparatus, and control the House and Senate Republican caucuses, and control major state governments around the nation. An extreme right wing Republican Party will not survive, and will give the Democrats such dominance that a moderate centrist party, maybe on the pattern of the Whig Party of Henry Clay, Daniel Webster, John Quincy Adams and Abraham Lincoln in the 19th century, will then emerge as a valid alternative to the more leftist Democratic Party by comparison.

The rise of a permanent Democratic majority in the Electoral College, as Georgia, Texas, Arizona and North Carolina will turn “blue” over the rest of the second decade of the 21st century, due to the growth in the Hispanic-Latino population, and the alienation of women from the Republican Party, which is working to control the reproductive lives of women. Both groups will swing these Sun Belt States to the Democrats, and with the Atlantic Coast from New England down to Virginia, and the Pacific Coast and the Upper Midwest more “blue” all of the time, there will be no way that Democrats will lose the White House over the next couple of decades, whether they nominate Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, or someone else, for the Presidency in 2016 and beyond.

The Supreme Court will turn more liberal, as over the remaining years of this decade, the likelihood of new Supreme Court appointments, as well as circuit and district courts, will fall to Democratic Presidents, who no longer have to worry about a filibuster proof majority of 60 votes. The need for only 51 votes or 50 with the Vice President breaking the tie, insures that the courts, and eventually the high Court, will take a different view over time on same sex marriage, abortion rights, civil rights, and civil liberties, reminding one over the next two decades (due to lifetime appointments) of the history of the Warren Court.

A happy 2014 to all my readers and contributors!

Governors And The Presidential Election Of 2016

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It has often been pointed out that more Governors have been elected President over the course of American history than Senators.

From 1900 on, the following Presidents were earlier Governors of their states—Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.

The argument is that being a Governor prepares one better for the Presidency than serving in the national government in Washington, DC.

Whether this is true or not, the argument now is that the national government, and particularly the Congress, is so engaged in stalemate and gridlock, that the best choice in the Presidential Election of 2016 would be to go once again for a Governor or former Governor, as occurred four times of the past six Presidents, and seven of the past ten national elections.

So if that is the case, what is the market among Governors?

First, the Democratic side:

Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Andrew Cuomo of New York
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Mark Warner of Virginia
Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Jerry Brown of California
Howard Dean of Vermont
Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Dannel Malloy of Connecticut

Now the Republican side

Chris Christie of New Jersey
Jeb Bush of Florida
Scott Walker of Wisconsin
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
John Kasich of Ohio
Jon Huntsman of Utah
Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Mike Pence of Indiana
Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Rick Scott of Florida

So, at least in theory, nine former or sitting Democratic Governors and twelve former or sitting Republican Governors are potential Presidential nominees.

Having said that, it is clear that some of these two groups are highly unlikely to be a candidate, or to have any realistic chance to be the nominee, including for the Democrats: Brown, Dean, Malloy, and Patrick, and for the Republicans: Scott, Martinez, Sandoval, Pence, Haley, and sadly (because he would be the best choice for the GOP long term), Huntsman.

For the Democrats, O’Malley and Cuomo and Warner (who has also served in the Senate), would be the best choices, were it not for the “800 pound gorilla” of Hillary Clinton and the slightly smaller version of Joe Biden. Were it not for them, these three listed Democrats would be a great term to compete for the nomination. Hickenlooper is also a good candidate, but would not be considered as likely to have a good chance, and Schweitzer might very well run, based on recent comments and activities, but the odds for him, especially against Clinton and Biden as things now stand, are extremely high of failure, and even of being mostly ignored by political pundits.

For the Republicans, Christie and Bush would be the most likely to have a real opportunity for the Presidency, but with the Tea Party Movement, neither is very popular, to say the least. Walker might be a better bet on that score, with Jindal seeming less attractive as time goes by, and Perry a real long shot based on his past performances. The “dark horse” to watch would be Kasich, who had a long career on Capitol Hill and knows how Washington works, and despite his mixed record in so many areas, is personally appealing, unlike any of those listed In this paragraph, in many ways the most appealing personally other than Huntsman.

If one had to bet which of each list would have the best chance, all things being equal, one would say O’Malley for the Democrats and Kasich for the Republicans, but the odds are that it will be someone from Capitol Hill–Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden for the Democrats, and Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Paul Ryan for the Republicans, with the Democrats having the clear edge in the Electoral College, because of the support of the Atlantic Coast and Pacific Coast, and the likelihood of strong support in the upper Midwest and Illinois and Iowa, along with Virginia, an unmatchable scenario for the Republicans, as we look at the political situation as 2013 ends, but always subject to changing times that are unpredictable.