Presidential Election Of 2020

17 Republican States, All South, Great Plains, And Mountain West, Live In Alternative Universe As Rabid Trump Supporters

After six months in office, Donald Trump’s public opinion ratings languish at 36 percent in many polls, and no higher than 40 percent in any of the reputable polls.

But in a Gallup poll, we discover that there are three tiers of states–17 states who love Trump and give him a rating of 50 or higher; 16 states where his rating is 40-50 percent; and 17 states where his rating is below 40 percent, and as low as 26 percent.

The 17 states that love Trump are in the South, Great Plains, and Mountain West, states that together have very few electoral votes–with West Virginia the highest support with 60 percent, followed by North Dakota with 59 percent and South Dakota with 57 percent, and then Montana and Wyoming with 56 percent and Alabama with 55 percent. All of the Great Plains states are part of the group, and the poorer Southern states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, South Carolina, besides Alabama, and the Appalachian states of Kentucky and West Virginia, in addition to the four smaller populated Mountain States (Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah), and Alaska. All 17 were Republican states in 2016.

The 16 states that give Trump between 40-50 percent include Maine and New Hampshire in New England; North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Texas, and Mississippi in the South, with only Mississippi being a very poor state economically; Pennsylvania, and the Midwestern states of Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri; and Arizona and Nevada in the West.

And then,the 17 states that totally reject Trump include the New England area minus Maine and New Hampshire; the entire Northeast down through Virginia, except Pennsylvania; Illinois and Minnesota in the Midwest; Colorado and New Mexico in the Mountain West; and the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. Vermont with 26, Massachusetts with 29, Maryland and California with 30, and New York with 31 give the lowest support to Trump.

So overall, the map of support is similar as it was in the Presidential Election of 2016, and the key area of contention remains the Midwest and Pennsylvania, and Florida, which elected Trump; and they will determine whether the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 can win the White House.

The Donald Trump Jr. Email Explosive Revelations Hastens The End Of The Trump Presidency On Accelerated Pace

The Donald Trump Jr email scandal keeps evolving, and now it is up to EIGHT participants in the meeting, despite the fact that Trump’s son wanted to be “transparent” and provide all of the facts, but instead we have new revelations daily about the Russian participation in the meeting in June 2016, designed to undermine Hillary Clinton’s Presidential campaign.

Trump Jr comes across as a deceitful and massive liar, just like his father, and Jared Kushner, Jr’s brother in law and son in law of Donald Trump, looks more and more like a sleazy character, who now has changed his security clearance forms three times, and revealed he had contact with more than 100 Russians, many of them connected to Vladimir Putin.

It is becoming evident that this is a far greater and more dangerous scandal than Watergate, and one can imagine that Richard Nixon, in the after life, is watching, shaking his head, and wondering how Trump gets away with it, when he was unable to do so.

But it is also clear that the Trump Presidency is on an accelerated pace to its demise, with the likelihood of a resignation sooner, rather than later.

Trump cannot be enjoying being President, as he is under constant attack and criticism, rightfully so, but something he is not accustomed to in his privileged life span.

Now that the scandal is directly affecting his family, and the possibility of future indictments as a result, one can assume that while Trump is willing to throw any of his staff or cabinet “under the bus”, that is not true of his family.

In theory, Trump could pardon his son or son in law if they were in legal danger, as Bill Clinton pardoned his half brother, Roger Clinton, of drug charges on his record, right before Clinton left office.

Trump’s mental and physical state is eroding, as he looks drained and older in appearance after just six months in the White House, and his erratic emotional behavior is truly alarming, as he undermines the reputation of the Presidency every single day.

So I can see a scenario where Trump decides he has had enough, that no one can take away the fact that he has been the 45th President of the United States, and that he will always have his followers who will believe in him.

He will wish to fight another day from the sidelines, dividing America for the rest of his life, continuing his obnoxious public persona, making him the most divisive President ever in American history.

And I can foresee that Trump would use his pardon power to protect his family and a few close associates from legal jeopardy, resign after that, and then Mike Pence, likely, despite controversy, would pardon Trump from any judicial or legal action, copying the Gerald Ford model with Richard Nixon.

Of course this would insure that Mike Pence would finish the term, much under a cloud of his own involvement in the Russian collusion, but he could be facing investigation for his own possible statements and actions, and would be challenged for the nomination within the Republican Party. The Democratic Party would be the odds on favorite to win both houses of Congress in 2020, as well as the White House, ending this “national nightmare”, as Ford declared it after Nixon’s resignation in 1974!

Trump-Putin Summit Meeting A Clear Sign That Putin Has Trump In His Grasp, Undermines Trump Legitimacy As President

The Trump-Putin Summit Meeting yesterday at the G-20 Summit is a clear sign that the Russian autocrat has our President in his grasp, and has undermined Trump’s legitimacy as our President.

All the intelligence agencies are absolutely certain that Russia intervened in our 2016 Presidential election, and helped Trump to win.

Trump has been unwilling to agree to the reality and the facts, calling it “fake news”.

Different versions of the meeting by the Russian Foreign Minister and our Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have emerged from the meeting, and the question is whether Trump really pressed the issue with Putin, and whether he will simply accept their version that they did NOT interfere in our election. A “robust” and “lengthy” discussion, as depicted by Tillerson, apparently was a distortion of the meeting, another lie of the Trump Presidency!

The idea that we had a summit meeting with only Tillerson as an observer, with his close past ties with Russia when he was head of Exxon Oil, is an outrage, when we should have had H. R. McMaster, the National Security Adviser, and or James Mattis, our Secretary of Defense, in the meeting. Between Trump and Tillerson, we had a grand total of 12 months experience in diplomacy, compared to many decades of experience by Putin and his Foreign Minister. This is an outrage that everyone should be alarmed about, and one can be sure many Republicans and conservatives in and out of Congress are truly alarmed!

IF Trump does not continue to challenge Putin and resist their propaganda, he will be permanently harmed, and we will have to worry that he is in league with them to help promote his fortunes, by their planned interference in our midterm elections in 2018 and the Presidential Election of 2020.

Can one even imagine the reaction if Barack Obama had colluded with Russia, or George W. Bush, or Bill Clinton?

Can one imagine how the far Right conservatives and the evangelical Christian Right, which have embraced Vladimir Put as a “Friend”, based on support of guns and opposition to gay rights, would have reacted if, in particular, Obama had done what Trump has done, promote a “bromance” with a man responsible for deaths of journalists and opponents, as revealed by Richard Engel in a one hour special on MSNBC last evening, part of a new series titled “On Assignment”?

The idea that men and women who profess religion could unite with a totalitarian dictator such as Putin only shows the corruption of right wing evangelicals, such as Franklin Graham, son of Billy Graham! The idea that right wing commentators, such as Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Mark Levin, among others, would just accept that Putin is no danger to America, is also a true example of how lacking in substance these characters are, only concerned about making as much profit as possible on their propaganda, and no concern about American national security!

The way things look now, Donald Trump is truly the “Manchurian Candidate”, and we are permitting the Russians to infiltrate and undermine our political system with equanimity, instead of with alarm!

Russians Invaded American Electoral Process In 2016, And Are Ready To Do It Again In 2018 And 2020 With Trump Support!

The most alarming aspect of Donald Trump unwilling to admit that the Russians invaded the American electoral process in 2016, is that the Russians are ready and able to do it again in 2018 and 2020, with Trump being the beneficiary of such intervention, if action is not taken rapidly to prevent such a disaster from occurring again.

The fact that, supposedly, Trump brought up the issue in his private meeting today with Vladimir Putin at the G-20 Summit, which was immediately dismissed by Putin, and was followed by both sides agreeing to “move on”, is not an adequate end to the controversy, and the investigation of the issue must continue.

With all of the efforts to fight and resist Trump, it could be that we are doomed to have Trump continue to dominate, with the help of a foreign power, that our intelligence agencies may not be able to combat.

This is totally outrageous and unacceptable, and all efforts by those forces that wish to preserve the election process as totally legitimate, have quite a challenge, as the midterm Congressional elections are only 16 months from now, and the Presidential campaign will start in the middle of 2018, when it is likely that the first potential nominees will start to announce their candidacies, hoping to gain some advantage over those who wait till after the midterms, if they have an election to deal with first, before they announce.

The Congressional investigations, and the Special Counsel investigation of Robert Mueller must move forward with haste, while at the same time, all possible preventive measures are taken to keep the next two election rounds, and those that follow, totally honest and legitimate.

Trump Voter Fraud Commission An Attack On Voting Rights, Clear And Simple!

The Trump Voter Fraud Commission, set up and headed by Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who is infamous for promoting voter suppression tactics, has become a total failure, as 44 states refuse to comply with all of the information that the commission is asking the states to provide.

Trump wants this commission, because he cannot accept that he lost the popular vote by 2.85 million to Hillary Clinton, and claims that millions of illegal immigrants voted, with absolutely no such evidence of this crazy theory.

What Trump is trying to do is a clear attack on voting rights, and an attempt to cut millions off the voter rolls, so that Trump can have less opposition for a reelection campaign in 2020.

The fact that all but a few states refuse to cooperate is a good sign, as we now have a situation in which the stares are the progressive forces, against a right wing reactionary federal government headed by Trump cronies.

This is the precise opposite of the 1960s, when we had southern states, including Mississippi and Alabama most notably, but others as well, that worked to undermine civil and voting rights, and were forced into compliance by the federal government.

There are those conservatives who believe in states rights when it is convenient, but now want that to be ignored when it comes to states and cities protecting the environment; and also law abiding immigrants, even if they may have overstayed their time as a visitor, or entered illegally, but have led law abiding lives for decades in this nation, and should not face deportation, as the Trump Administration is pursuing, to the outrage of millions of Americans!

Jon Ossoff Loses Georgia Race, But All Four Special Elections Show GOP Edge Dramatically Cut From Elections In November 2016

All of the four Congressional special elections, due to sitting Republican Congressmen taking positions in the Trump Administration, were won by Republicans, but in all four districts, the margin of victory was much closer than the races for those seats in November 2016.

It is disappointing that Jon Ossoff lost the race in the Georgia Congressional District, but Karen Handel’s margin of victory is one fifth what it was for Tom Price last year.

The same for Ryan Zinke’s seat in Montana; Mike Pompeo’s seat in Kansas; and also Nick Mulvaney’s seat in South Carolina.

But one must realize all four districts are strong Red districts, so the massive narrowing of the margin of victory is a major story.

The reality is that 23 Congressional districts with Republican wins in 2016 were also Congressional districts won by Hillary Clinton, and none of these four special elections were among those 23 districts.

So it comes down to the reality that IF Democrats can win those Clinton districts, with all of the discontent and turmoil over Donald Trump and the Republican agenda, they would be on the way to a likely gain of the House of Representatives majority in 2018, whereby 24 seats need to be gained.

But to do so, the Democrats must be much more aggressive in their campaigning, and must vigorously work to recruit the best possible candidates, so that they can revive their fortunes before the Presidential Election of 2020.

This is NOT the time to be downcast over the Ossoff defeat, but to applaud how he cut down the Republican party edge in the district by about 19 points, and mobilized thousands of people to become engaged in politics, who had never done so before.

Confidence and optimism are the key words to be emphasized and pursued!

California Politics: From “Senior Citizens” To “New Generation” Heirs Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, And Eric Garcetti: Potential Presidential Candidates

California, one out of eight people in America, is finally seeing a political turnover, with the retirement of Senator Barbara Boxer (age 76)in 2016, and the future retirement of Governor Jerry Brown (age 80) at the end of 2018.

Now it is urgent that Senator Diane Feinstein, who will be 85 in 2018, decide NOT to run for another six year term. The best choice to replace her is Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti.

“Senior Citizens” in their late 70s or 80s should not be running for office, although many have, but it is time for California to set the standard, and already they have Senator Kamala Harris to replace Senator Boxer, and the likelihood of Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom succeeding Jerry Brown as Governor.

Having leadership in their late 40s and early 50s would be a sign that the Golden State is looking to the future, and interestingly, all three–Harris, Newsom, and Garcetti—would be potential Democratic Presidential candidates in 2020, 2024, or beyond.

Fresh, young blood is desperately needed to deal with the issues of the 2020s and beyond, and no matter how good a record some may think Diane Feinstein has had, it is time to retire, Diane! Do you get it?

Could It Be A Battle Between Two Upper Septuagenarians For The Democratic Presidential Nomination In 2020?

This blogger has written recently on the potential field of candidates for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination, with him emphasizing the desirability of a “newer” generation of leadership in their 40s and 50s.

But having said that, the possibility does exist that the major battle for the nomination could be between two upper septuagenarians with long political careers, and many people who greatly admire them.

I am referring to former Vice President Joe Biden, who also served 36 years in the US Senate from Delaware; and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who has served 27 years in Congress, in both the House of Representatives and Senate as the first successful long term Independent Socialist, who only became a Democrat when he announced for President, and now is officially an Independent again, although he caucuses with the Democrats.

Biden will be 78 two weeks after the 2020 election, and Sanders will be 79 shortly before that election.

Both are dedicated public servants, who have millions of admirers who remain ready to support their favorite candidate, if they decide to run for President.

Biden is comparatively more centrist, while Sanders is the extreme left of the Democratic Party.

Were both to run, while they would have many other candidates competing, it could be a battle royal for the ages, with their advanced age being an issue, although Donald Trump, were he to run in 2020, would be 74 and a half at the time of the election.

We have never had two people in their 70s as the alternatives, although Hillary Clinton was 69 in 2016.

Trying to predict who would triumph is quite a challenge, but this author thinks that Biden would have an easier time, with his Establishment credentials, and with Sanders still having to deal with the “Socialist” label, and being Jewish, even though he is not at all devout.

In the long run, however, it would still be preferable to have a “newer generation” of leadership leading the Democratic Party and the nation into the 2020s.

The Need For A Real “Newer” Generation Of Leadership, Age 47 To 60 In Election Year 2020!

With the victory of Emmanuel Macron as President of France, it draws attention to the need for a real “newer” generation of leadership in America to move the nation forward in 2020 and beyond.

So although age alone should not decide who should be President, or Presidential candidates, there is an argument for a big drop in age of the next President, similar to what happened when Dwight D. Eisenhower left office at age 70 in 1961, and was replaced by 43 year old John F. Kennedy.

The same situation arose when George H. W. Bush left office at age 68 in 1993, and was replaced by 46 year old Bill Clinton.

So if age is an issue, then the following are those potential Democratic Presidential candidates who should be in the forefront:

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, age 47 in 2020.

Los Angeles, California Mayor Eric Garcetti, age 49 in 2020.

Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, age 51 in 2020.

Future California Governor (heavily favored in 2018) Gavin Newsom, age 53 in 2020.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, age 54 in 2020.

Senator Kamala Harris of California, age 56 in 2020.

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, 60 in 2020.

With Donald Trump, if still in office in 2020 being 74, this would mean a drop in age of 27 down to 14 years if any of the above seven named possible nominees were to emerge as the next President.

This group includes three women (Gillibrand, Harris, Klobuchar); two African Americans (Booker and Harris who is multi racial); one Jewish and Mexican American (Garcetti); and two White Anglos Males (Murphy and Newsom). We would have three California contenders (Garcetti, Newsom, Harris); three from the NY, NJ, Connecticut metropolitan area (Gillibrand, Booker, Murphy); and one from the Midwest (Klobuchar). Two will be in their 40s (Murphy, Garcetti); four in their 50s (Booker, Newsom, Gillibrand, Harris); and one just 60 years old at that time (Klobuchar).

If this blogger were to forecast his sense of what “may” happen, I would think the ones to watch are Murphy, Garcetti, Newsom, and Klubuchar, but just an educated guess!

The Democratic Presidential Rumor Mill Grows From 18 To 25! But Probably 10 “Serious” Possibilities!

Nine days ago, this blogger published an article, discussing 18 potential Democratic Presidential candidates for 2020.

My article was a bit ahead of the media in bringing up the issue, but now the rumor mill has come up with 7 more potential Democratic candidates, making for a total, in theory, of 25!

This is the silly season, right after the First Hundred Days of Donald Trump, and having a list this lengthy does seem a bit ridiculous.

However, for the record, the other 7 names being bandied about are:

Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley from 2007 to 2015 and Baltimore Mayor before that from 1999-2007, age 57 in 2020, who this blogger should NOT have left off the original list. O’Malley was once thought of as the “new generation” of leadership, but could not compete against Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and the rumors that Joe Biden would run. Certainly, he belonged on the original list of 18, making it 19, and has a likely better chance in theory than some on that list.

Entrepreneur, businessman, and owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball team, Mark Cuban, age 62 in 2020, who is very personable and appealing, and could be the “outsider”, equivalent of the Democrats’ Donald Trump, but personally, this blogger is not keen about outside businessmen with no government experience, and Donald Trump just adds to that feeling, that it is not a great idea.

Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe, age 63 in 2020, who leaves office at the end of this year, but was formerly Democratic National Chairman from 2001-2005; Bill Clinton co chair in the 1996 Presidential campaign; and Hillary Clinton chair in the 2008 Presidential campaign, has the disadvantage of being connected to the Clintons, and has an image of being a bit sleazy and crooked throughout his political career, so would not seem a likely choice to get very far in the 2020 Presidential race. If anything, Senators Tim Kaine and Mark Warner seem more likely candidates from Virginia.

New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, age 60 in 2020, whose sister Mary was a long time US Senator from Louisiana fromJimmy 1997 to 2015, and whose father, Moon Landrieu, was Mayor of the city from 1970-1978, and Housing and Urban Development Secretary under Jimmy Carter from 1979 to 1981, has become recently controversial with his decision to remove Confederate monuments in the city, including those of Jefferson Davis and Robert E. Lee. Being a moderate Southern Democrat might make some think of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, but it would seem highly unlikely that he would have much of a shot at the nomination for President.

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, who would be 49 in 2020, and who is Jewish and also of Mexican heritage as well, and mayor of the second largest city in America in the largest state in America, might possibly be a more serious nominee on paper. Garcetti has long experience in city government, being a member of the LA City Council, and then its President, for nearly a total of 12 years on the Council, and Mayor since 2013. Being a person of urban and multiple ethnic and religious Los Angeles, the most diverse city possible in America, might just be a positive in the long run, and this is a person to watch, in the view of this blogger.

We also have two Massachusetts members of the House of Representatives, Seth Moulton, who would be 42 in 2020; and President John F. Kennedy’s grand nephew, Robert F. Kennedy’s grandson, and former Congressman Joe Kennedy II’s son, Joe Kennedy III, who would be only 40. Moulton has served since 2015 in the House, and Kennedy since 2013, and both have made names for themselves with their liberal views, and both are seen as ambitious rivals, but a bit young to be thinking of running, or be considered at all for the Presidency. Also, only James A. Garfield in 1880 went directly from the House to the Presidency, and then he was tragically killed within months. To believe a House member would be elected is highly unlikely.

In the view of this blogger, one could add O’Malley and Garcetti to the shorter list with Chris Murphy, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Cuomo, Gavin Newsom, Mark Warner, Sherrod Brown, and Elizabeth Warren as the most legitimate candidates.

So I am saying a total of 10 serious candidates is likely, which is certainly long enough—6 US Senators, 3 Governors (assuming Newsom is elected California Governor), and 1 Mayor, LA Mayor Garcetti. The list also includes 2 women, 1 African American, and 1 Jewish and Mexican combination (Garcetti). This is a pretty representative list.

Any commentary by my readers on this and the April 25 article is welcome!