Presidential Election Of 2020

Does The Ukraine Scandal Help Or Hurt Joe Biden’s Presidential Candidacy?

The Ukraine Scandal, which has led finally to the impeachment move against President Donald Trump, with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi terming it “bribery”, a specific impeachment charge contained in the Constitution, may help or hurt Joe Biden’s Presidential candidacy.

It seems clear that Hunter Biden, Joe Biden’s younger son, was not engaged in any corruption, and neither was his father, but of course, subject to potential revelations in the future.

If there is a real scandal, then Biden’s potential to be the Democratic Presidential nominee and have a chance to win the Presidency, will be harmed. It also becomes another burden, no matter what else is going on, for Biden to have to answer questions and deal with this for the next year if he gains the nomination.

But also, Biden could be harmed by just the image of illegality, and it could weaken the case that he is the best person to challenge Donald Trump.

The next few months will tell the story if Joe Biden is unable to overcome the attempt by Trump to damage his candidacy.

And with two more moderates suddenly entering the Presidential race belatedly–former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick–Biden will certainly have more competition in the caucuses and primaries beginning in just the next two and a half months.

Pete Buttigieg Soars To First In Iowa Caucus Poll

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg has surged to first place in a new Iowa Caucus poll, the Monmouth University poll, an amazing rise for a mayor of a small sized city in a red state. He has gained 14 points since the summer, rising from 8 percent to 22 percent, three points ahead of Joe Biden.

It is time to start seeing Mayor Pete as a serious contender, rather than as a curiosity.

His major negative is that he has almost no support in the African American community, which right now is smitten with Joe Biden, a surprise when one thinks that either Kamala Harris or Cory Booker would have a strong support in that community, and yet does not do so.

Mayor Pete being gay and having a husband will alienate evangelical Christians, who, however, would never vote Democratic in any case.

One might say that having an urban executive government record of 8 years in South Bend, Indiana, is not a plus, but actually, being a mayor is often more on the front lines of what is America than being a Governor of a Southern state, such as Arkansas (Bill Clinton); or as Georgia one term of four years (Jimmy Carter); or two years as Governor (Woodrow Wilson in New Jersey); or four years as Governor (Franklin D. Roosevelt in New York); or no government experience (Donald Trump); or a much shorter one year mayoralty as Grover Cleveland in Buffalo, New York, or Calvin Coolidge in Northampton, Massachusetts, or Andrew Johnson in Greeneville, Tennessee.

American history is full of surprises, so do not write Mayor Pete off, as he might very well be the Democratic Presidential nominee and the 46th President of the United States!

Nikki Haley Has Damaged Her Image Irreparably With Criticism Of Rex Tillerson And John Kelly Opposition To Donald Trump, And Her Laudatory Endorsement Of Trump

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, earlier Governor of South Carolina, always had a good reputation, including her opposition to Donald Trump’s candidacy in 2016 for the Presidency.

When she agreed, however, to be his UN Ambassador, her image was harmed, although she came across as one of a very few Trump appointees not involved in corruption nor in unseemly advocacy of horrific policies.

There is no question that Haley has political ambitions, but her decision to criticize former Trump appointees Rex Tillerson and John Kelly for trying to recruit her to undermine Trump, makes her look totally unable to see the danger that Trump represents in both domestic and foreign policy, and on the issue of separation of powers.

It seems clear that Haley is trying to undermine Vice President Mike Pence, and possibly replace him as the Vice Presidential nominee in 2020.

This shows she has no principles, decency, ethics, morals, or scruples other than her own advancement. She is totally delusional, when she says Trump was always truthful, and that she had no doubts about his capability to be President, a mind boggling assertion on her part! How could she say that Trump listened well, and that she always enjoyed working with him, when we know that Trump is on a constant rampage of anger on Twitter and in public statements?

So she has lost a lot of decent Americans who wanted to believe she was a quality figure, a rare one, but now it is clear she has no concern except her own aggrandizement. She is willing to see the destruction of the Republican Party by her constant endorsement of the worst President in American history, a denial of all GOP Presidents of the past!

So Nikki Haley is just another typical disgraceful Republican who should be repudiated for future political office, as she is willing to accept the lawless, abuse of power, and obstruction of justice of Donald Trump!

Is Kamala Harris Indeed “The Female Barack Obama”? The Hype Seems Not To Be Happening For 2020

California Senator Kamala Harris seemed to be on the road to becoming “The Female Barack Obama”, a person of mixed race, attractive appearance, and the potential to be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2020.

But, surprisingly, Harris has languished in the background, seemingly faltering, while Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, has surged to number four among Democratic candidates, replacing Harris.

While it is too early to write Harris off, the feeling is developing that she will not win any early state in February, and might have trouble even in California on Super Tuesday, by the power of Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg.

In theory, Harris could be a Vice Presidential running mate, but more likely, she will simply have a long career in the US Senate, and maybe pursue the Presidency in a later time in the mid to late 2020s.

No Thanks, Michael Bloomberg! We Do Not Need Another Aging Billionaire Muddying Up The Democratic Presidential Competition!

The rumors have been around for months, but no thanks, Michael Bloomberg!

We do not need another aging billionaire muddying up the Democratic Presidential competition.

Bloomberg would have great trouble winning the White House, with his controversial record as New York City Mayor, and antisemitism would rear its ugly head, and the nation is not about to elect a New York City former Mayor, as most of the nation hates New York City, for no good reasons, but reality that hatred does exist.

The possibility of a brokered and divided Democratic National Convention is alarming, and would only help Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

It is time for narrowing of candidates, not broadening of the candidate pool.

If a moderate in place of Joe Biden is desired, it should not be Bloomberg, but more likely Mayor Pete Buttigieg, or Senator Amy Klobuchar.

Right now, a moderate ticket of Pete and Amy seems more likely, with their Midwest background, to have the opportunity to win the White House, certainly better than aging candidates reaching their 80s in a first term.

There will be plenty of time to evaluate Bloomberg over time, but first thoughts are, as stated above, no thanks!

One Year To The Presidential Election Of 2020: My Past Record On The Last Three Presidential Elections

Here we are one year before the Presidential Election of 2020, and one of my contributors-commentators on this blog, D, asked awhile back that I come up with an estimate of what might happen in the upcoming Presidential contest.

I wish to point out that in 2008, I predicted the results of the Electoral College within one electoral vote, as I thought the Electoral College would be 364-174, and it ended up as 365-173.

I had not thought that one district in Nebraska, in the Omaha metropolitan area, would give an electoral vote to Barack Obama over John McCain, with Nebraska and Maine being the two states that have permitted split electoral votes, and with Nebraska only doing this in 2008. My article on this election was on November 2, 2008.

On November 4, 2012, my article predicted that Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney by an electoral vote of 332-206, and celebrated the precise electoral vote victory in an entry on November 9, 2012.

In 2016, I predicted on November 5, 2016, that Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump by a margin of 352-186, and was, like everyone else, totally off base, and still recovering from the shock in 2019.

So I have been accurate twice, and totally wrong the most recent time, and now it is time for projecting what might happen in the year 2020, although the estimate and judgment could be changed dramatically by events not possible to predict.

And since we do not know who the nominees of the major parties will be, it is much harder to project the ultimate result.

However, I will post my prediction, after being away for a few days, in midweek, and I welcome commentary by anyone reading this blog.

The Democratic Presidential Race Thins As Tim Ryan And Beto O’Rourke Withdraw From Race

The Democratic Presidential race is thinning as Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke have withdrawn from the competition in the past week.

Both were considered moderates, and some thought O’Rourke had a real chance to move ahead, but both candidacies floundered without much public support in polls and in fund raising.

Both Ryan and O’Rourke were the rare white men running for the nomination, with the only serious such candidates left being Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg.

There is also Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, and Tom Steyer, but the most competitive white men are Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg.

The odds of a woman or a minority person being the nominee seems more possible, which is fine, but if that happens, it will mean the Democratic Party has not nominated a white man for President since 2004.

The Division Of The Suburbs Politically: Inner Vs. Outer

Indications are that suburbia, traditionally Republican for decades, is changing.

Political observers see two areas of suburbia–the inner suburbs near major urban areas, and the outer suburbs, much further away and closer to rural areas.

The inner suburbs have become more racially and ethnically diverse, and are tending toward the Democratic Party, as in California’s Orange County as just one example in the Midterm Congressional Elections of 2018.

Meanwhile, the outer suburbs are seemingly very loyal to the Republican Party, since there is far less diversity further away from the cities, and reflect the conservative values common to rural America.

The fact that the inner suburbs are tending Democratic should be a good sign for the party in the Presidential Election of 2020, but whether what happened in 2018 is a trend, or an exception, is hard to assess at this point.

Death Of ISIS Leader A Momentary Positive For Donald Trump, But It Will Not Last

The announcement this morning of the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi by Special Forces in Syria is a momentary positive for Donald Trump, as was the case with the death of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan on May 2, 2011 during the administration of Barack Obama.

It will certainly go down as an accomplishment that Trump can lay claim to, as Obama did with Osama bin Laden.

But it does not mean that America is safely isolated from the Middle East quagmire, and since so many ISIS fighters were released from prison as a result of the Turkish assault in Syria against Kurds in the past two weeks, one can be sadly assured that there will be a revival of ISIS under different leadership, ready to commit terrorist acts and torture people as they did from 2014 onward.

The likelihood of ISIS retribution for the death of their leader is certain, and will affect European nations but also the United States, making the idea of foreign travel by Americans not a good idea short term, and possibly, long term.

We can rejoice and congratulate Donald Trump on this, but the road ahead in international affairs in the year up to the Presidential Election of 2020 is impossible to predict, as to whether it will benefit Trump, or his Democratic opposition, all based on events we cannot forecast.

Alternative Candidates Who Might Enter The Democratic Presidential Race

Hard to believe, but rumors are spreading that there could be alternative candidates who might enter the Democratic Presidential race.

These would include:

2016 Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton

Former First Lady Michelle Obama

Former 2004 Presidential nominee John Kerry

Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg

Former Attorney General Eric Holder

Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown

Most of these ideas are totally preposterous.

It is time for Hillary Clinton to pass the torch finally, and make an unequivocal statement she will not run, as she would divide the party and the nation in such a way that would be totally destructive.

Michelle Obama is not going to run, too smart to consider it.

John Kerry is another too old nominee, who is from the distant past, 2004 as a Presidential candidate, and would be 77 when taking the oath, and the last thing we need is another old candidate.

The same goes for Michael Bloomberg, who would five months younger than Bernie Sanders and nine months older than Joe Biden, and would be one month short of 79 in January 2021, too old, and really too divisive with his record as NYC Mayor, and not loyal to the Democratic Party.

Eric Holder and Deval Patrick would only create more racial division, with Cory Booker and Kamala Harris and Julian Castro already in the race, and Holder highly controversial and being 70 the day after the inauguration, and Deval Patrick just another Massachusetts politician, but with no real constituency to run.

If any candidate deciding to run makes sense, it just might be Sherrod Brown, who considered running, and would be a strong competitor from Ohio, but if he is to run, time is of the essence. He would be 68 at the time of the inauguration, and might be a good Vice Presidential choice instead of for the Presidency.

But except for Brown, really, the next Democratic Presidential nominee needs to come from the present, rapidly dwindling list, and dreaming of alternatives needs to end!