Presidential Election Of 2020

2019 Will Be The Most Significant Year Since 1968, Tumultuous And Transformative

The year 2019 will assuredly be the most tumultuous and transformative year since 1968.

The Democrats taking over the House of Representatives means full investigation of the Presidency of Donald Trump, and the likelihood of the impeachment of Donald Trump.

It might seem that Trump will survive in office, but this blogger believes he will be forced out by resignation, and a deal whereby his children and son in law will avoid prosecution, if Donald Trump agrees to resign.

The pressure on Trump will grow, and his health will likely get worse, and while it might seem that he will not give in and resign, the same thought 45 years ago about Richard Nixon, this blogger’s belief that he will leave office by mid year is strongly held.

If he leaves office no later than June 20, 2019, then Trump will have served exactly 29 months, matching the exact term of President Warren G. Harding from 1921-1923, which is the 4th shortest term of any President in American history.

The likelihood of a President Mike Pence is strong, but he would face party opposition from a number of Republican potential challengers, including John Kasich, Jeff Flake, or Bob Corker, all of whom will not be in public office in 2019.

Also, the likelihood of growing conflict between Chief Justice John Roberts and President Trump will become part of the story of the end of the Trump Presidency.

And Nancy Pelosi, the best Speaker of the House since Thomas “Tip” O’Neill (1977-1987), will play a major role in the events transpiring next year.

And also expect a major battle between the “old timers” (Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders), as well as between them and a new generation of leadership much more diverse, for the Presidential Election Of 2020, including Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Eric Garcetti, and Chris Murphy, among other Democratic contenders.

Latinos In Congress Gain Major Role In 116th Congress

There are 57 million Latinos, from Puerto Rican heritage, as well as Cuban, Mexican, and one from Ecuador in the United States as 2018 comes to an end.

A record of 43 Latinos will be sitting in the 116th Congress, with some in leadership roles, as Latinos now constitute 18 percent of the total population, the nation’s largest minority group.

New Mexico Representative Ben Ray Lujan has been chosen by the Democratic Caucus to be Assistant Democratic Leader, the fourth ranking position in the House Leadership, and could be on the road to being a future Whip, Majority Leader, or even Speaker of the House in the future.

Meanwhile, Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto will be in charge of the party’s campaign arm for Senate races in 2020, the first Latina to have a position of authority in the Democratic Party.

The Congressional Hispanic Caucus will be headed by Texas Representative Joaquin Castro, and his brother, Julian, is about to announce his candidacy for President, the first serious Latino to compete for the White House.

The caucus will pursue comprehensive immigration reform; reconstruction in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria; raising the minimum wage; lowering the cost of health care; and dealing with climate change.

Ten new Latinos are coming to Congress, the largest increase ever, with five Democrats who were first time candidates defeating Republican incumbents in November, including one Latina.

Four other Latinas will be in the new Congress, including two from Texas, and one from the Bronx, New York, and one born in Ecuador.

35 of the 43 Latinos in the next Congress are Democrats, to 8 Republicans, with only one new Republican Latino, elected in Ohio, the first Latino ever elected from Ohio.

Seven other first time Republican Latinos Congressional candidates lost, in the era of the anti Latino and anti immigrant rhetoric common to Donald Trump and his administration.

And two Republican Latinos lost their seats in California and Florida, not a good sign for Latino impact on the Republican Party in the future.

Four Potential New England Democratic Presidential Contenders In 2020: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Chris Murphy, Joe Kennedy III

Four New England Democrats are potential rivals for the 2020 Democratic Presidential sweepstakes.

It is certain that Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts will run, but interestingly, they could cancel each other out in the ultimate finals race a year from now, since they are so similar.

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut is a very appealing younger Democrat in his mid 40s, and this author has good vibes about him having a good chance of going far in the Presidential competition.

And Congressman Joe Kennedy III of Massachusetts, the grandson of Robert F. Kennedy, who looks much like Ted Kennedy, while only 38, is also thought to be considering a run for the White House.

Since there are so many potential contenders, numbering in the high 20s in number, it is simply too early to judge what might happen, and how far these New Englanders might advance.

Experience, Not Age, Should Rule In Government, After Donald Trump

As a result of the disaster that is Donald Trump, it is urgent that Americans elect the next President based on solid experience in government.

We do not need or want anyone who has spent his life in business alone.

We also should not elect anyone who has not had substantial experience in government, although one is not putting a specific number of years of experience as the requirement.

One thing is clear:  Age cannot be a factor, as is now being proved by the masterful leadership of future and past Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.  She has demonstrated that she is the right person for the times, but has also agreed that she will leave no later than four years, and give the younger generation an opportunity to gain experience in lower level leadership, so as to take over when she and the other veteran Democratic leaders, Steny Hoyer and James Clyburn, leave no later than 2022.

What is needed is proof of skill in government policy making, and if it is determined that Joe Biden, or Bernie Sanders, or Michael Bloomberg, or John Kerry, or even Jerry Brown is the “right” person, then we simply have to insure that his running mate for Vice President is someone, male or female, who is fully equipped to take over if anything happens to the President who might have reached his 80s in age.

It might also be wise for any of these soon to be octogenarians to make a pledge not to seek a second term, and by choosing a Vice Presidential nominee, be grooming such person for the succession if needed during the term, or for after that term, although, obviously, others could challenge the Vice President for election in the next term.

If, on the other hand, we move toward much younger leadership, let us be certain that such younger nominees have enough experience, vision, and goals to make such person an appropriate President of the United States.

Nancy Pelosi Proves A Woman Can Overwhelm A Bully, A Braggart, A President Who Is Unfit To Be President

Nancy Pelosi was a great, productive leader of the House as Speaker from 2007-2011, and she will be again.

She was easily the best Speaker of the House since Thomas “Tip” O’Neill, who was Speaker under Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan from 1977-1987.

She accomplished more under the last two years of George W. Bush and the first two years of Barack Obama than any modern Speaker other than O’Neill in the past 45 years, and makes all Republican Speakers–Newt Gingrich, Dennis Hastert, John Boehner, Paul Ryan–look pitiful by comparison.

The House of Representatives will have a much more complicated calendar for the first time in 12 years, as she will push and promote the Democratic agenda in the next two years, along with consideration of the possible impeachment of Donald Trump.

Her performance in showing up Trump at an open to the press 17 minute verbal dispute in the Oval Office was masterful, and showed she can best a man who thinks he is smart and brilliant, but was shown to be “an Emperor without clothes”.   Trump was humiliated by how Pelosi portrayed him  and his manhood, and has shown, despite her reaching the age of 80 by 2020, that she is the right person to lead Democrats into a hoped for massive victory in 2020 for the Presidency and the US Senate, and retention of the House majority.

Growing Likelihood Of Challengers To Donald Trump For GOP Presidential Nomination In 2020

With Donald Trump being “individual No. 1”, clearly the center of probes by Robert Mueller, the Special Counsel, and also by the Southern District of New York, the likelihood grows of Republicans, who have just come off a 40 seat loss in the House and control of the lower chamber, being alarmed enough that serious challengers to Donald Trump’s nomination for a second term seem likely.

One can expect the following Republicans to consider challenges to Trump.

Outgoing Ohio Governor John Kasich.

Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse.

Utah Senator Mitt Romney, the 2012 Presidential nominee.

Outgoing Arizona Senator Jeff Flake.

Former South Carolina Governor and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

There could be others as well, but this list seems quite realistic, although the more that challenge Trump, the less likely there would be success.

It would be much easier if only one challenger took the bait, and went after Trump.

One can think back to 1979-1980, when President Jimmy Carter was challenged by both Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy and California Governor Jerry Brown.  

The one thing about even one challenger to a sitting President is that the result has been that while the President won the nomination, he ended up losing the election, with three of the four times losing massively.

William Howard Taft won only 23 percent in 1912 after being challenged by former President Theodore Roosevelt, and having to deal with TR as the Progressive Party nominee, as well as Democratic nominee Woodrow Wilson.

Jimmy Carter won only 41 percent in 1980 after being challenged by Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown, and having to deal with an independent nominee, John Anderson, as well as Republican nominee Ronald Reagan.

George H. W.  Bush won only 37 percent in 1992 after being challenged by Pat Buchanan, and having to deal with independent nominee Ross Perot and Democratic nominee Bill Clinton.

At this point, before we begin the new year, it would seem as if John Kasich would have the upper hand on a challenge over others, and that Ben Sasse, representing a new generation of conservative leadership, would be an additional major challenge to Trump, were Sasse willing to mount a campaign.

Of course, any challenge to Trump would also be indirectly a challenge to Vice President Mike Pence as the “heir apparent”.

Mueller Investigation Proves Donald Trump Has Committed Impeachable Acts, But Trump Denies Everything

The Robert Mueller investigation, as of Friday, has proved that Donald Trump has committed impeachable acts, but Trump denies everything.

The next two years, clearly, will see a constant battle over Trump, as he clearly has no intentions of leaving office.

The 2020 election seems more than ever a battle for the Constitution and American democracy.

The fireworks we have seen in two years of Donald Trump are just the prelude to the most tumultuous and dangerous moment in American history, far surpassing even the Civil War, the Great Depression and World War II, and Richard Nixon and the Watergate Crisis.

With a divided Congress, impeachment seems likely, but absolutely no possibility of the Republican controlled US Senate doing the right thing, and moving to convict and remove the President by a two thirds vote.

It is clear that Donald Trump cares more about himself than he does for the nation, and will stop at nothing to divide us, and attempt to win a second term.

It would seem highly unlikely that he could possibly win a second term, but in theory, he could cobble together a combination of states and electoral votes and pull another victory out, even with public opinion polls unlikely to ever show a majority support him.

One even has to wonder if he lost reelection, whether he would accept defeat and leave office on January 20, 2021, and how the government bureaucracy would conduct itself in such an eventuality.

By comparison,  Richard Nixon looks so much more principled and respectful of the Constitution, while Donald Trump is clearly of a totalitarian mind, and somehow, he must be stopped and removed from office.

The Best 14 Potential Democratic Presidential Candidates For 2020

As one looks ahead to 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate who he considers to be the 14 best potential Democratic Presidential candidates for 2020.

There are an estimated 30 or more potential candidates who might announce for President, but many of them seem wanting in many respects, and as stated by this author yesterday, having more than about a dozen would be counterproductive.

Of course, individual politicians who wish to run are not going to concern themselves with numbers, but I wish to indicate the list that I feel is the most legitimate, and most likely, that we will see the final few Presidential contenders emerging  as  serious possibilities.

So in no special order, except by geographical sections, here goes:

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut

Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey

Former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware

Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota

Former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro of Texas

Former Congressman Robert Francis (Beto) O’Rourke of Texas

Governor Steve Bullock of Montana

Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon

Senator Kamala Harris of California

Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles

Congressman Eric Swalwell of California

So the list includes 8 Senators, 2 House members past or present, three Mayors past or present, 1 Governor, and 1 former Vice President of the United State, who served in the Senate for 36 years..

It is an impressive list, heavily weighted toward US Senators, but with some alternatives from elsewhere, and some from farther left and others more toward the moderate center, with the question being what is the best strategy for the Democrats for the Presidential campaign of 2020.

Democratic Donnybrook Could Endanger Chances Of Democratic Party Unity For 2020

Now that the nation is looking toward the new 116th Congress, opening on Thursday, January 3, with a Democratic controlled House of Representatives and a Republican controlled Senate, attention is starting to be paid to the upcoming Presidential Election of 2020.

The season for announcing one’s candidacy is upon us, and already, it seems clear that the Democrats are going to offer the nation too many candidates.

The all time record is the Republicans in 2016 offering 17 candidates, and it forced debates to be two rounds, which was totally preposterous and confusing, and benefited Donald Trump.

We might, this round for the Democratic party, be faced with 30 or more potential nominees, but honestly, that is totally crazy.

This author believes that more than 12 candidates makes a mockery of the process, and it is urgent that potential candidates be realistic, and not shoot for the stars, so to speak.

It is counterproductive for many, who realistically have to believe their chances are limited, to crowd a field of candidates with much more funding, name recognition, staff, and journalistic attention required to sustain themselves, but not available for so many candidates.

An ideal group of 12 would include some veterans of presidential campaigning; some newcomers; some racial and ethnic representatives; some women; and some from diverse geographical sections of the nation.

Not everyone has the personality, temperament, and ability to be President, and it is essential that a tone of realism is introduced into the process.

If the Democrats become engaged in a full scale donnybrook, it will endanger the chance of the party for unity in 2020, and could lead to Republican retention of the White House.

The 116th Congress, 2019-2020, In Detail: Hopefully, The First Step To A Democratic Senate and Democratic President Elected In 2020

The 116th Congress, opening on January 3, 2019, will have exactly 100 new members, an all time high turnover.

It will contain 235 Democrats and 200 Republicans in the House of Representatives, a gain of 40 seats by the Democrats, the most massive turnover since the Midterm Elections of 1974, after Richard Nixon had resigned that August due to the Watergate Scandal.

The Senate will be 53 Republicans to 45 Democrats and 2 Independents (Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont), an increase of two seats for the Republicans.

It is much more “Blue” or Democratic and younger and more diverse in every way, a true “Blue Wave”.

The average age of the newcomers is age 49.

63 of the new members are Democrats, and 37 are Republicans, with the Democrats having 60 new House members and 3 Senators, while the Republicans have 31 new House members and 6 Senators.

So there are 91 new House members and 9 new Senators, making a turnover of about 20 percent of the House and 9 percent of the Senate in membership.

40 of the new 100 members of Congress are women, 36 in the House and 4 in the Senate.

60 of the new members are men, 55 in the House and 5 in the Senate.

24 of the new House members are Hispanic, Native American and people of color, but all of the newly elected Senators are white.

History Makers include: Marsha Blackburn (R) of Tennessee, the first woman elected to Congress from her state; two Native American women elected to the House from Kansas and New Mexico; the Kansas Congresswoman being the first openly gay person elected to Congress from Kansas; first two Latina women elected to Congress from Texas; first Muslim women elected to Congress from Michigan and Minnesota; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from New York the youngest elected Congresswoman ever in Congress; the first black Congresswoman ever elected from Massachusetts and Connecticut; and Kyrsten Sinema the first woman elected to the Senate from Arizona, and also first openly bisexual member of the Senate.

We also have older new members in their 70s, Mitt Romney in the Senate at 71, and Donna Shalala of Florida in the House at 77.

The new Congressional group is highly educated, with 70 percent having gone to graduate school; one third having law degrees; 12 having MBAs; seven members having at least two graduate degrees; and Kyrsten Sinema having four graduate degrees.

19 members have served in the military, including 6 in the Army, 11 in the Navy, and 2 in the Air Force.

4 of the newcomers are professional athletes in their past, including 2 NFL football players, 1 professional hockey player, and 1 mixed martial arts fighter.

Also, there are 3 doctors, one dentist, 1 nurse, and 5 educators in the group of 100 new members of Congress.

The average age of members of Congress remains about the same as it has been, 58.5 years.

The total number of women in Congress are 124, an all time high, including 100 in the House and 24 in the Senate.

Finally, 21 percent of the Congress is Hispanic, Native American, and people of color.

Hopefully, the “Blue Wave” of 2018 will lead to a Democratic Senate and Democratic President in the Presidential Election of 2020.