Presidential Election Of 2020

Justin Amash And Howard Schultz The Potential Spoilers In 2020 Presidential Election

In the midst of the battle for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020, one can lose sight of the reality that a third party or independent candidate could affect the election result, as it did in 2016.

Third parties and independent candidacies for President have played a role in past elections, and the death last week of Independent and Reform Party Presidential candidate H. Ross Perot brings that to mind.

Presently, we have two potential spoilers–Michigan Republican Congressman Justin Amash, who might run as the Libertarian Party nominee against Donald Trump; and billionaire businessman Howard Schultz of Starbucks fame, who might run as an independent nominee, and harm the Democratic Presidential candidate.

Either or both could draw millions of votes, as Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Jill Stein of the Green Party did in 2016, when Johnson gained 4.5 million votes and Stein gained 1.5 million votes. Additionally, Evan McMullin of Utah, who ran as an Independent, gained about nearly three quarters of a million votes. So together, these three non major party nominees gained a total of about 6.75 million votes , about 5 percent of the total popular votes cast.

Ralph Nader and Patrick Buchanan had played roles in the 2000 Presidential election, as Ross Perot did in 1992 and 1996. And John Anderson was a factor in 1980, as George Wallace was in 1968.

Whether Amash and or Schultz will be a major factor in 2020, and draw millions of votes, is a center of speculation in the summer of 2019!

The Possibility Of A Latino President: Julian Castro

The idea of a Latino President is becoming more possible, as former Obama Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, who also was Mayor of the 6th largest city, San Antonio, Texas, has reached the 130,000 donors needed to be able to participate in the third Democratic debate in September.

This development, along with his excellent performance at the first debate and making fellow Texan former Congressman Beto O’Rourke look weak by comparison, elevates Castro to a much more serious candidacy.

With people of Hispanic ancestry being one of every six Americans, and with Mexican Americans being two thirds of all Hispanics, Julian Castro can be seen as a possible President.

There is no larger minority in America than Mexican Americans and of Hispanics totally, and Castro has proved he can govern a major city, and a major federal bureaucracy as a cabinet officer.

Castro would be 46 at the time of the next Presidential inauguration, the third youngest President in American history, about a month younger than Bill Clinton, and about six months younger than Ulysses S. Grant.

It would also mean that “a new generation” of leadership–with John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama—would be added to by Julian Castro, making them the second, third, sixth, and fourth youngest Presidents in American history.

Could Nikki Haley Replace Mike Pence As Vice Presidential Candidate For Donald Trump In 2020?

Rumors are spreading that former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley might replace Vice President Mike Pence on the ticket with Donald Trump for the Presidential Election Of 2020.

It seems startling that such would occur, as Mike Pence has been a loyal soldier for Trump, refusing in any way to take a stand against anything Trump says or does, and therefore is perceived as unwilling to challenge his boss.

But Nikki Haley is one of a very few Trump Administration figures to survive with her reputation intact, and adding her to the ticket would help to appeal to women, and would help to improve the image of Donald Trump, who has been clearly seen as a misogynist.

The fact that Haley is also of heritage from India through her parents might also draw some ethnic support to Trump.

Whether this would happen seems unlikely, and one wonders how would Donald Trump reward Mike Pence for his loyalty, if he was to replace him on the ticket.

What position could he offer Pence as solace for losing the opportunity to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency?

The Rise Of Kamala Harris

As a result of the first Democratic Presidential debates in Miami, Florida, it is clear that the biggest beneficiary of those debates is California Senator Kamala Harris.

She has surged to number two in many polls, just behind Joe Biden, but in striking distance of the former Vice President.

Harris has been able to raise much more funding, and much more attention is being given to the charismatic Senator, often called the “female Barack Obama”, due to her mixed race ancestry, with her mother being born in India and her father in Jamaica.

Harris has a great passion and intensity, which is very appealing, and she has a delightful laugh, and her good looks make her a very attractive potential President.

If she can do well in the early caucuses and primaries, and win the California Primary on March 3, 2020 convincingly, she will be hard to stop for the Presidential nomination of the Democratic Party.

Does Elizabeth Warren Neutralize Bernie Sanders As A Presidential Candidate?

It could be that Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren might neutralize Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders as a Presidential candidate.

After the first set of debates, Warren has surged in support, and is expressing much of the same message as Sanders.

In the first polls coming out after the debates, she has been shown to be ahead of Sanders in several polls.

The fact that she is younger by eight years, and comes across to many as much more pleasant and cordial and sincere than Sanders does, is a major problem for the Vermont Senator.

One gets the sense that Bernie Sanders may have reached his peak, and may be on the decline, and not just temporarily, but time will tell.

Can Mayor Pete Buttigieg Gain Support Of African Americans, A Crucial Democratic Voting Bloc?

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg was perceived as having done well in the first Democratic debate, but yet did not gain in public opinion polls, and a lot of it, beyond his being gay, is his inability, so far, to gain African American support, a key voting bloc for Democrats in any national election.

The racial situation in South Bend, where recently a black man was killed by a police officer, has made any attempt to improve Buttigieg’s standing among African Americans ever the harder.

But also, many African Americans are extremely devout Christians, and they have an issue with the idea of a gay President, who also has a husband.

So the question is whether Mayor Pete has any real chance of being the Democratic Presidential nominee if he cannot win over substantial African American support.

That will be a key factor in the turmoil surrounding the Democratic Presidential sweepstakes.

Are We Ready For Another “Revolutionary” Change, Beyond Barack Obama?

Democrats are faced with a challenge that will determine the Presidential Election of 2020.

Is the nation ready for another “revolutionary” change, beyond Barack Obama?

The nation elected a mixed race African American Senator to the White House eleven years ago, something much more “revolutionary” than electing the first Catholic President John F. Kennedy in 1960.

The question is whether the nation is ready to do any of the following:

Elect the first woman President (Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tulsi Gabbard)

Elect the first mixed race woman President (Kamala Harris)

Elect the second African American male President (Cory Booker)

Elect the first Latino President (Julian Castro)

Elect the first gay President (Pete Buttigieg)

Elect our first Jewish President (Bernie Sanders, Michael Bennet)

Elect our first Hindu President (Tulsi Gabbard), who was born in the US territory of American Samoa.

Elect our oldest first term President at inauguration (Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren)

Elect the first President who will reach 80 years of age in office (Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden)

Elect our first sitting Mayor (Pete Buttigieg, Bill de Blasio)

Elect the first sitting Congressman since James A. Garfield in 1880 (Tulsi Gabbard, Seth Moulton, Tim Ryan, Eric Swalwell)

Elect a President younger than Theodore Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy (Pete Buttigieg, Tulsi Gabbard, Eric Swalwell, Seth Moulton)

Is It Time For A New Generation Of Leadership For The Democrats?

After watching both Democratic Presidential debates this week, one has to ask the question:

It is time for a new generation of leadership for the Democrats?

The Democratic Party, historically, has regularly gone for younger candidates for President than the Republicans.

Witness Franklin D. Roosevelt, age 51; Adlai Stevenson, age 52; John F. Kennedy, age 43; Lyndon B. Johnson full term, age 56; Hubert Humphrey, age 57; George McGovern, age 50; Jimmy Carter, age 52; Walter Mondale, age 56; Michael Dukakis, age 56; Bill Clinton, age 46; Al Gore, age 52; Barack Obama, age 47.

Compare this to Dwight D. Eisenhower, age 62; Gerald Ford, 1976, age 63; Ronald Reagan, age 69; George H W Bush, age 64; Bob Dole, age 73; John McCain, age 72; Mitt Romney, age 65; Donald Trump, age 70.

So nominating Bernie Sanders, age 79; Joe Biden, age 78; or Elizabeth Warren, age 71—all of whom would be the oldest first term nominated Presidential candidate—might be the wrong way to go!

Might it NOT be better to nominate, at their ages at the time of the Presidential Election of 2020?

Pete Buttigieg age 39

Tulsi Gabbard age 39

Eric Swalwell age 40

Julian Castro age 46

Beto O’Rourke age 48

Cory Booker age 51

Steve Bullock age 54

Kirsten Gillibrand age 54

Kamala Harris age 56

Amy Klobuchar age 60

Two Week Hiatus From Commentary, Will Return On June 24 Before Democratic Presidential Debates Begin

This blogger and scholar will be taking a two week hiatus from commentary, returning shortly before the Democratic Presidential debates in Miami, Florida.

This will be the longest break in commentary, as for many years, no more than one or two days has passed without some posting, and even that occurring rarely.

So to my readers, tune in the week of June 24.

The State Of The Democratic Presidential Race Before The First Debates At The End Of June

We are about two and a half weeks before the first Democratic Presidential debates, which will be held in Miami, Florida on June 26 and 27, and broadcast on MSNBC.

With 23 candidates, and only 20 scheduled to make it to the debates, based on public opinion polls and financial contributions, how do things stand at this point?

Joe Biden is comfortably ahead but is starting to make blunders and causing criticism to begin at his whole approach to his campaign, acting as if he does not have a major challenge, but that attitude will change quickly on the debate stage.

And if one looks at history, the front runner never ends up as the nominee in any Presidential competition.

So who seems to be charging ahead to challenge Joe Biden?

Bernie Sanders has been upended by Elizabeth Warren for the time being, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg continues to be a sensation in Town Hall debates.

Kamala Harris is also looking in good shape at this time.

On the other hand, Seth Moulton and Steve Bullock, late announcing as part of the race, may both fail to make the debate stage, while non politicians Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang are certain to be there, and one wonders if they will have any impact.

Others, such as Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Jay Inslee, and Kirsten Gillibrand are waiting hopefully for a big improvement in their fortunes at the end of June.

One thing is certain: A large number of the candidates will not survive the summer as serious contenders, as the first debate, and the second one in Detroit, Michigan, at the end of July, will cut down the competition, likely by one third to one half of the 23 contenders at the beginning of this competition.