Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney, A Profile In Courage, First Senator In American History To Vote To Convict President Of His Own Party!

Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, was a true “Profile in Courage” yesterday, by voting to convict Donald Trump on the impeachment charge of “Abuse Of Power”.

This blogger and author was not a great fan of Mitt Romney in his failed 2012 Presidential bid, considering him a hypocrite for criticizing ObamaCare, which was based to a great extent on RomneyCare in Massachusetts. I did not want him as President, and think he lacked enough concern for the average American.

But that is the past, and Romney knows he will suffer attacks and condemnations from within the Republican Party for his action to be the first US Senator in American history to vote to convict a President of his own party in an impeachment trial. That took guts and also showed the true religiosity of Romney with his Mormon faith, whether one agrees or likes the Mormon Church and its teachings.

The accusation that he plans to run for President again is preposterous, and Romney may, very well, not run for reelection in 2024, but the future is not important as the present, to take a stand against the lawlessness and arrogance of Donald Trump.

The fact that Romney’s own niece, Ronna Romney McDaniel, is chair of the Republican National Committee, put her in an awkward position, and she did, indeed, make clear her objection to her uncle’s decision. But that does not matter, and whatever one thinks of Romney in the past, it is clear that his vote is based upon principle and courage, so it is proper to applaud and salute Mitt Romney for a decision that will live in history, and could be another chapter, updated, of John F. Kennedy’s famous “Profiles in Courage” book in 1956!

Romney will withstand the storm of criticism, and if moronic son Donald Trump, Jr is able to have Romney expelled from the Republican Party, as he called for in anger yesterday, the party will be the loser, not Romney.

If Romney is a true independent, he will be a greater Senator long term than being captive to a corrupt political party, so bring it on, is my thought!

Will Four Or More Republicans Call For Witnesses In Donald Trump Impeachment Trial?

With the Donald Trump Impeachment Trial to begin in earnest on Tuesday, January 21, the first full day of the last year of this Presidential term of office, the question arises whether at least four Republican Senators will buck their leader, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and call for witnesses to testify.

John Bolton, former National Security Adviser, is the key witness in mind, although there are others, including Mick Mulvaney (the Acting White House Chief of Staff), Attorney General William Barr, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Vice President Mike Pence, as well as lesser figures.

If even John Bolton gets to testify, it will be a victory for Democrats, but the question is whether there are Republican Senators who want to know the truth, or are just interested in backing the President, no matter what abuses of power he has engaged in.

The best estimate is that we will find the following Senators supporting testimony:

Susan Collins of Maine

Lisa Murkowski of Alaska

Mitt Romney of Utah

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Rob Portman of Ohio

Cory Gardner of Colorado

If only three of the above support witnesses, it would be a 50-50 tie, and the belief is that Chief Justice John Roberts could rule in such a tie situation, and would support witnesses.

But this is such an unprecedented situation, so we are guessing at what will be the ultimate decision on this matter.

Trump’s Threat Against Iran’s Cultural, Historical, And Religious Sites Makes Him A War Criminal Under International Law!

Donald Trump’s Twitter threat to bomb and destroy Iran’s Cultural, Historical, and Religious Sites if Iran responds to the assassination of Qasem Soleibani with military force, not only threatens the outbreak of general war in the Middle East, leading to a potential World War 3, but also makes him a war criminal under international law.

Such threats and potential attacks demonstrate how Trump has gone off the rails totally, and is a National Security threat, who needs to be removed immediately.

Sadly, though, we are seeing Republicans rush to defend him and his actions and utterances, including those one might think would hold back support, including Mitt Romney and Ben Sasse.

Clearly, the Republican Party officeholders have gone totally insane, and we now have a rogue government in international affairs, and the danger that we will have this insane leader move ever further to threaten war on many fronts.

This maniac is capable of declaring martial law and suspending the Constitution, and he must be stopped as a threat to American democracy and world peace and order!

Deval Patrick Joins The Presidential Race Belatedly

Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick entered the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination this week, further muddying up the waters at a time when we need fewer candidates.

Patrick is impressive in many ways, but being connected to Bain Capital, the company started by Mitt Romney, is not a plus, and it seems to this blogger that he has little chance to be a major factor in the race, in that sense joining former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has decided not to compete in the February 2020 contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

The concern is that by having ever more contenders, the Democrats will shoot themselves, and help Donald Trump to win the Presidency, even after he is impeached by the House of Representatives, but failing to be convicted in the US Senate.

The fact that there are still ten contenders in the MSNBC debate this coming Wednesday in Atlanta, cosponsored by the Washington Post, is not good, as clearly some of them have zero chance to be the nominee.

At the same time, other contenders, including Julian Castro and Steve Bullock, are probably now no longer to be seen as serious contenders.

But one cannot see Tom Steyer or Tulsi Gabbard as serious contenders, and they are in the upcoming debate.

Hopefully, the number of contenders will soon decline rapidly after this fourth debate.

One Year To The Presidential Election Of 2020: My Past Record On The Last Three Presidential Elections

Here we are one year before the Presidential Election of 2020, and one of my contributors-commentators on this blog, D, asked awhile back that I come up with an estimate of what might happen in the upcoming Presidential contest.

I wish to point out that in 2008, I predicted the results of the Electoral College within one electoral vote, as I thought the Electoral College would be 364-174, and it ended up as 365-173.

I had not thought that one district in Nebraska, in the Omaha metropolitan area, would give an electoral vote to Barack Obama over John McCain, with Nebraska and Maine being the two states that have permitted split electoral votes, and with Nebraska only doing this in 2008. My article on this election was on November 2, 2008.

On November 4, 2012, my article predicted that Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney by an electoral vote of 332-206, and celebrated the precise electoral vote victory in an entry on November 9, 2012.

In 2016, I predicted on November 5, 2016, that Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump by a margin of 352-186, and was, like everyone else, totally off base, and still recovering from the shock in 2019.

So I have been accurate twice, and totally wrong the most recent time, and now it is time for projecting what might happen in the year 2020, although the estimate and judgment could be changed dramatically by events not possible to predict.

And since we do not know who the nominees of the major parties will be, it is much harder to project the ultimate result.

However, I will post my prediction, after being away for a few days, in midweek, and I welcome commentary by anyone reading this blog.

14 Weeks Until First Vote In Iowa Caucuses

As the House of Representatives is working on its impeachment inquiry involving President Donald Trump, the political calendar is starting to close in on many Democratic Presidential contenders.

It is now only 14 weeks until the first Americans vote on 2020, with the Iowa Caucuses taking place on Monday, February 3.

Iowa is not truly decisive on who wins the nomination and the Presidency in either major political party, as the only times that Iowa was a sign of the future was when an incumbent President was not on the ballot, and even then, not very often.

Democratic Party

Walter Mondale in 1984

Al Gore in 2000

John Kerry in 2004

Barack Obama in 2008

Hillary Clinton in 2016

George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Bill Clinton in 1992 failed to win Iowa.

Republican Party

Gerald Ford in 1976

Bob Dole in 1996

George W. Bush in 2000

Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Donald Trump in 2016 failed to win Iowa.

So only George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008 won Iowa and went on to win the Presidency in the fall of those years.

So do not expect that who wins Iowa will automatically be the nominee for the Democrats in November 2020.

Since 1972, Iowa has been accurate on the Democratic nominee 43 percent of the time, and 50 percent accurate on the Republican nominee.

Iowa is not representative of the nation in its population mix, but it gives a leg up to a few of the candidates, while dashing the hopes of so many others.

Republican Senators Who Do Not Support Lindsey Graham Resolution Condemning House Impeachment Inquiry

Mitt Romney of Utah

Susan Collins of Maine

Lisa Murkowski of Alaska

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Mike Enzi of Wyoming

Cory Gardner of Colorado

Johnny Isakson of Georgia

This means that Lindsey Graham is not able to gain support from the entire Republican Senate caucus, and is a hint of the likelihood that such a resolution to condemn the House of Representatives Impeachment Inquiry will fail to gain a majority of the US Senate.

It could be that a vote for conviction in an impeachment trial might be 54-46, not enough to remove Donald Trump, but a major slap in the face, nevertheless to the 45th President.

And it could be more than seven Republican Senators could end up voting against Trump, although the likelihood of reaching the threshold of 20 Republicans joining with all 47 Democrats to remove Donald Trump is very much a long shot.

Support For Trump Impeachment Becomes A Majority In Latest Public Opinion Polls

As Donald Trump makes clear that he will not cooperate in any fashion with the Democrats wanting testimony and documents, support for impeachment and removal from office has reached a majority in public opinion polls, including the Fox News Channel poll.

That never happened with Bill Clinton, and Richard Nixon only two weeks before his resignation in 1974, and Trump is too confident that nothing can happen to him, but it is clear that his refusal to cooperate with a legitimate investigation is undermining public support, and further harms his campaign for reelection.

With suburbanites, educated women, farmers, and many working class whites seeing that Trump is a loose cannon and has harmed many with his insane tariff policy toward China and the European Union, Trump is clearly delusional, and thinks he can survive impeachment by wild Twitter statements, including calling for impeachment of Republican Senator Mitt Romney, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. His ignorance shows through, as he seems not to understand that only people in the executive and judicial branches of government can be impeached.

His public statements and Twitter feed only are undermining him more by the day, and sealing his fate as a failure as President, never having had a majority in any reputable public opinion poll supportive of him and his Presidency!

Some Republican Senators Begin Expressing Criticism Of Donald Trump

In the midst of the impeachment crisis, some Republican Senators are beginning to separate themselves from Donald Trump, after being silent for so long.

So we have Mitt Romney of Utah, Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Susan Collins of Maine, and Joni Ernst of Iowa expressing sharp criticism of Trump, with Romney the strongest in his statements, and Trump bitterly attacking him, and stupidly, calling for his impeachment, something that cannot be done against a member of Congress, but only the executive and judicial branches of government.

All of the above are facing reelection in 2020, except for Romney, who does not face voters again until 2024.

How much further Sasse, Collins, and Ernst will go against Trump will be interesting to watch, and one senses that others, including those not facing reelection in 2020, will start to turn against him, with long serving member Chuck Grassley of Iowa defending the “whistleblower” investigation on the Ukraine controversy.

So the impeachment drama, and how it will affect the Congressional and Presidential elections of 2020, continues to draw attention, as, with 13 months to go, the unpredictability of what will occur in November 2020 is clearly very concerning.

Would Any Republican Senators Vote For Conviction Of Donald Trump In Impeachment Trial? It Is Possible Up To 23 Would Do So, Three More Than Needed To Remove Trump From Oval Office!

As the likelihood of the impeachment of Donald Trump increases daily, the question arises whether any of the 53 Republican Senators would actually vote for his conviction and removal from the Presidency.

It has been reported that privately up to 30 Republican Senators would wish to do so, but are unwilling to risk their Senate seats to vote in public, where they need to be listed as to their vote on the matter.

Looking at the list of Republicans, it seems to this author and blogger that the following 23 might decide to convict Trump:

Richard Shelby of Alabama

Lisa Murkowski of Alaska

Marco Rubio of Florida

Johnny Isakson of Georgia

Chuck Grassley of Iowa

Joni Ernst of Iowa

Pat Roberts of Kansas

Rand Paul of Kentucky

John Kennedy of Louisiana

Susan Collins of Maine

Ben Sasse of Nebraska

Deb Fischer of Nebraska

Richard Burr of North Carolina

Rob Portman of Ohio

James Lankford of Oklahoma

Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania

Tim Scott of South Carolina

John Thune of South Dakota

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Mike Lee of Utah

Mitt Romney of Utah

Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia

Mike Enzi of Wyoming

All of these Senators, except four, do not face election until 2022, or 2024 in the case of Fischer and Romney, while Roberts, Enzi and Alexander are retiring in 2020, and Isakson is retiring early at the end of 2019 due to poor health . Only Collins, Ernst, Sasse and Capito face election in 2020, but possibly could be considered “yes” votes for conviction.

If all of these 23 GOP Senators voted to convict, added to 47 Democrats and Independents, it would mean the vote to convict would be 70-30, enough by three, allowing, in theory, three of the Senators facing election in 2020 to decide NOT to remove Trump.