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The News Media And Public Opinion Polls On Trial On Election Day: Are They Reliable?

Today, Election Day 2020, it is clear that the news media, particularly the establishment media–the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC–need to be demonstrated to be reliable and accurate in their coverage of the 2020 election campaign.

Or will they have “egg in their faces” again, as in 2016, when there was total shock at the result of the election, the victory of Donald Trump?

And the same goes even more with the multitude of public opinion polls, which misjudged what was about to happen, and also the prognosticators, many well known, and some like this author and blogger, NOT well known, who all believed Hillary Clinton would win the Presidency!

A one time blunder, or error, can be explained, as it was in 1948 when no one thought Harry Truman would defeat Thomas E. Dewey!

A second time, when all evidence is that Joe Biden will likely win a landslide victory over Donald Trump, would be fatal in many ways, making Americans unwilling to believe the major news media and public opinion polls in the future!

Hopefully, the right wing news media, notorious for lies and deception, most notably Fox News Channel, the New York Post, and the Wall Street Journal, all Rupert Murdoch owned and operated, will be repudiated beyond any redemption! The same applies to right wing talk show radio hosts, including Rush Limbaugh, Michael Savage, Mark Levin, and a host of other extremists who exploit the American people on a regular basis!

Hopefully, we will know sometime tomorrow, Wednesday, November 4!

The Donald Trump Base Is Withering Rapidly

As the election day ticks down to 22 days today, it is clear that the Donald Trump base of about 35-40 percent is withering rapidly.

The COVID 19 Pandemic and the outrageously poor reaction of Donald Trump and Mike Pence to that disaster is turning senior citizens and even white working class men away from Donald Trump.

The fact that he has called his followers “disgusting”, and glad he does not have to shake their hands, is being noted by many former Trump supporters who now realize Trump would not want them at his Mar A Lago residence in Florida.

Trump is massively losing among those of his former supporters who have a brain and intelligence, morality, and ethics, and see what a disgusting human being he is!

More Trump backers in 2016 have seen how dangerous and unstable he is, and how his narcissism has led him to endanger American foreign policy, and side with authoritarian leaders, including Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, and Mohammed bin Salman, among others.

Many conservatives are realizing that Trump is not a conservative, and many former Republican officeholders have repudiated him as a destroyer of Republican Party history and values.

Trump has made no effort to expand his receding base, and every poll, even on Fox News Channel, shows Joe Biden far ahead in “swing states”, and competing even in states that by all rights should not be contestable, including Georgia, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Arizona.

This is not an issue of whether Joe Biden is a perfect candidate, as no such person exists, but rather whether he represents the interests and concerns of average Americans, whose families have struggled and continue to struggle.

Joe Biden comes from a working class background, and has always had the traits needed for a President—intelligence, knowledge, experience, compassion, empathy, decency, morals, ethics, humanity, and a magnificent record of service unmatched in American history.

The nation is realizing Joe Biden is the right person to deal with the worst conditions we have seen since the Great Depression, far greater than the Great Recession of a decade ago. Only his approach to the future, with Kamala Harris by his side, can help the nation to recover from the COVID 19 Pandemic, the economic calamity, and the racial divide that has been encouraged by the Trump Administration.

If Donald Trump Loses Just 4 Percent Of Republican Voters, He Loses Election Massively!

Donald Trump is losing more than four percent of Republican voters, according to public opinion polls, who seem mostly to be cultish like, willing to accept any Trump outrage as acceptable.

But the revelation that Trump has paid no federal taxes for 10 of the last 15 years through 2017, and only paid $750 each year of 2016 and 2017, is enough to turn a small sliver of Republicans, who still have a brain and reasoning power, against Trump!

After all, they and the rest of us, except the very wealthy, DO pay federal taxes, so why should Donald Trump NOT pay his fair share of taxes?

Trump also has exploited the federal budget with all of the costs of all his golfing adventures, and charging everyone who goes to any of his Trump hotels, including Vice President Mike Pence and others, higher rates, paid at federal budget expense. And when his children travel and spend, it is all on the rest of us taxpayers!

So statistics indicate that Trump has no chance to win simply by losing a small percentage of Republican voters, which now seems certain!

Beyond the small sliver of Republicans who have a brain and ethics, also consider that Joe Biden’s lead among women is nearly double that of Hillary Clinton in 2016, and that similar statistics hold for independents and moderates for Biden as compared to Clinton in 2016.

And third parties will not take nearly 6 percent of the vote and help Trump this time around, but rather no more than 2-3 percent at most.

Joe Biden will go into Tuesday night’s debate with a tremendous edge, and all he needs to do is expose the lies, the danger, and the incompetence of Donald Trump.

Also, realize that Trump is losing MORE former Republican officeholders and cabinet and military personnel who served under Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush, as well as those who worked for the Presidential campaigns of Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney!

And many conservative commentators, those NOT connected to Fox News Channel, or other further right wing media, also long have condemned Trump, and are engaged in working to retire him, and bring him to justice!

So watch as Donald Trump deteriorates before our eyes in the next month, and yet threatens American democracy, while the military has made it clear that they will not back any undemocratic moves by the Fascist in the White House!

Donald Trump Disparages Military Service, Heroism, And Sacrifice

One would think America had reached bottom with Donald Trump behavior and utterances, but no, not so!

We now learn that Donald Trump, who used “bone spurs” as the excuse to avoid military service during the Vietnam War, has regularly disparaged military service, heroism, and sacrifice, and it has all been confirmed by Fox News Channel, imagine that!

Calling those who served or serve in the military “Suckers” and “Losers”,

and not wishing to visit cemeteries to honor the dead,

and more concerned about the effect on his hair at a military site if it rains or is windy,

and condemning Senator John McCain as a “Loser’ for being captured and imprisoned for five years in Vietnam,

and threatening his son Donald Jr if he joined the military, when he was young, with him being disowned by his own father,

What can one say, and how can Donald Trump recover from this revelation, as already, there are hints that many military retirees, and family members, and troops presently serving, are rapidly abandoning Trump, with a sense of outrage and fury, and rightfully so!

Donald Trump has no patriotism, no loyalty to the nation he leads, and yet he is unwilling to condemn the evils of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, and is clearly compromised, so is a traitor, clear and simple!

Trump is a disgrace to the Oval Office, and must be prosecuted to the full extent of the law, and face life in prison, along with his evil wife and first three children!

He is a stain upon the Presidency, and it will take years to undo the damage he has wrought!

Republican National Convention a Total Failure On First Evening, Led By Donald Trump Jr. And Kimberly Guilfoyle, Amid Promotion Of Fear And Hysteria!

To be a Republican today and NOT be embarrassed by the disastrous Republican National Convention on Day One, would mean that you are literally insane yourself!

The speeches by a group of truly disgraceful people promoted fear and hysteria, and tried to convince us that Joe Biden is a left wing terrorist out to destroy suburbia and the American way of life!

Anyone who follows politics KNOWS that Joe Biden is a decent human being, a man of compassion and empathy, certainly not perfect, but much more a man of character and integrity than we have seen in the past four years.

Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle were particularly off the wall, crazy and looney, and both seemed to be high on cocaine, when one looked in their evil eyes and saw them both screaming, and they were both overly loud and unhinged!

This is a couple, with Donald Trump Jr. divorced, and Guilfoyle being his girlfriend, but also, in the past, she was the wife for five years, ironically, of California Governor Gavin Newsom, 15 years ago.

It is now clear why Newsom removed himself from this marriage, and in a sense, this couple of Trump Jr and Guilfoyle are “meant” for each other, as two disgusting, despicable, excuses for human beings!

She used to be on Fox News Channel, so one gets the drift of how this crazy woman has disgraced herself yet again last night. And she insulted Puerto Rico, seemingly unaware that it is part of the United States!

The Republican Attack On Kamala Harris Begins, Including “Birtherism”, But It Will Not Succeed!

The Trump Presidency, the Republican Party, and the extreme right wing Fox News Channel and conservative talk radio and propagandists are already deeply in attack on Vice Presidential nominee Kamala Harris in every possible and obscene way imaginable.

This includes preposterous claims that Harris was not born in America, when she was born in Oakland, California, and therefore the “birtherism” charge used against Barack Obama is coming back.

She is being called too progressive or not progressive enough, and being portrayed as becoming the future President, since Joe Biden, supposedly, is close to being feeble mentally, and will resign soon. This is said after Biden conducted a great speech yesterday and today, as well as Harris doing so, and inspiring people that there is a coherent future after Donald Trump.

Joe Biden can bike vigorously, and is in good physical shape, while Trump rides in a golf cart, and becomes more incoherent by the day, totally delusional, and clearly terrified that Biden and Harris have such a large lead in all polls.

So now Trump is trying to prevent people from voting by causing massive postal service delays, which also endangers people getting their medications on a sustained basis by mail.

Trump is totally out of control, hysterical, while Biden and Harris are promoting a national mask policy for the next few months, as a consistent manner to curb the number of people who get the CoronaVirus and cut the number of deaths, which are at a high now, more than anytime since May!

The Battle For The Republican Future After Trump

The Republican Party seems likely to collapse in the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2020, suffering their worst defeat since 1964.

Just as the party collapsed in 1912, and again in 1964, now in 2020, four years late–that is, 56 years, not 52 years—a major regeneration of the party in Congress and the competition for the Presidency seems likely.

It looks right now as if the Democrats will win a lot more than the three to four seats needed to win the majority in the Senate, and that the Republicans will lose another minimum ten seats in the House of Representatives, after losing 42 seats in the 2018 midterm Congressional elections.

And the issue arises, who in the party has a likelihood of competing for President in 2024, with of course, always the possibility someone not yet elected or noticed will enter the fray if successful in this upcoming election.

Youth seems likely to triumph, and there are people in the Senate who can be seen as rivals for the future nomination for President, as well as some not in the Senate.

In the Senate, we have some “old timers”, meaning those who have already run for President, including Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Marco Rubio of Florida. All of them are quite horrific as thoughts as future Presidents, particularly the first two, but really, all three.

Then, we have three others, who clearly, plan to run for President—Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Ben Sasse of Nebraska—and all but Sasse are seen as equally totally horrific.

We also have Nikki Haley, former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor, and for awhile, thought to be “somewhat appealing”, but no more, after her recent total loyalty to Donald Trump, and the halo she once had is gone.

We also have the horror of the possibility of Donald Trump Jr. or Ivanka Trump considering a run!

And we have the disgrace of Florida Senator Rick Scott, who should have been in federal prison for Medicare-Medicaid fraud from years ago, and instead went on to two terms as Florida Governor, and now Florida Senator, winning all three races by about one percent, and all three races very suspect as to vote total manipulation. Just looking at him is enough to make one vomit!

And if one looks to have regular vomiting, think of the disgrace of Fox News Channel’s Tucker Carlson, a true Know Nothing moron, with no ethical or moral compass at all!

Then, there is also Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, who both have handled the CoronaVirus Pandemic responsibly, and are perceived as moderates.

And another Governor, who has handled the crisis horribly, Ron DeSantis of Florida, will probably be angling as well for the Presidency, and makes a Floridian like myself disgusted as to the three state wide office holders in the third largest state, being as obnoxious as Rubio, Scott, and DeSantis!

Of course, if Trump is reelected, Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo might also enter the race, but it is assumed for this article that Trump will lose!

As an “outsider”, a progressive such as myself, if asked, who could one imagine “accepting” as a future President, and with this progressive hiding his eyes behind a total mask, it would have to be Ben Sasse, Larry Hogan, or Charlie Baker, as the rest of the group totally sickens me.

Likely, one of these sixteen will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024, and the odds will be against Sasse, Hogan or Baker, realistically!

Likely Republican Field For Presidential Race Of 2024 Very Large

The Presidential Election of 2020 is upon us in 100 days, but, believe it or not, there are hints already of who might run for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024, whether or not Donald Trump wins reelection.

Likely, there might be someone not talked about yet, who emerges as a serious contender, who has served, or will serve, in the US Senate or a state Governorship.

So what is being discussed here is highly speculative, but let me make it clear: The field is wide open.

So here goes, a list of 17 potential contenders:

if Donald Trump loses election, he would be eligible to run again in 2024, and try to match Grover Cleveland in being President, losing, and then contending again.

Additionally, his son, Donald Jr., seems to have Presidential ambitions, although the level of his competence and intellect is highly doubtful.

Also, Trump’s daughter, Ivanka Trump, is also rumored to be thinking of running, but only if Donald Jr, steps aside, but everyone knows that the President favors his daughter over his other children.

Once we get past the Trump family, here is a list of 14 other potential contenders in no special order:

Vice President or former Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana

Former South Carolina Governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida

Senator Rick Scott of Florida

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky

Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska

Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas

Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri

Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida

Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland

Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo of Kansas

And we can finish with, believe it or not, Fox News Talk Show Host Tucker Carlson!

Dr. Anthony Fauci A True Hero, And Should Be Time Magazine’s Person Of The Year For Upholding Science And Health!

Dr, Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, is being mostly sidelined and ignored by President Donald Trump, who does not want to hear his insights and expertise on the infectious disease which has killed nearly 140,000 Americans in less than five months.

The CoronaVirus Pandemic is the greatest health crisis in the sense of deaths that we have seen in a century. While Fauci does not claim to have no imperfections, which we all do, he is certainly someone to be relied upon and respected, although many Americans who ignore science think he is a threat to Donald Trump’s reelection.

Fauci has served American public health in various capacities for more than a half century, and still has total energy as he nears 80 years of age this coming December. He has been an adviser to every President in the past forty years, and played a major role in dealing with the AIDS crisis, when it arose in the 1980s and after.

Fauci has been one of the most cited scientists in scientific journals for much of his career. He graduated first in his class at Cornell University Medical School in the mid 1960s. He has received over 30 honorary doctorates at universities in the United States and foreign nations. He has been the author, coauthor or editor of more than one thousand scientific publications, including several textbooks.

Sadly, he has had the need for a security detail, due to death threats and strong criticism from extremist right wing critics, including many on Fox News Channel. They do not have a clue on science or health, but promote the Trump agenda of ignoring the pandemic, as their only goal is to reelect Trump, despite his incompetence and lack of concern about the pandemic!

Dr. Fauci is a truly inspirational figure, and should be chosen as the Person of the Year by Time Magazine in December, and Joe Biden should utilize him in 2021 in a more respectful way than Donald Trump has displayed!

Anti Trump Republican Group Pinpoints Six Convicted Felons Under Donald Trump As Proving Lawless Presidency

The Lincoln Project, a leading Republican anti Trump group working to defeat him in 2020, just put out a great video portraying the six convicted felons under the Donald Trump Presidency:

Michael Cohen

Paul Manafort

Michael Flynn

Roger Stone

Rick Gates

George Papadoupoulos

This anti Trump group, along with Republican Voters Against Trump; Right Side PAC; and 43 Alumni For Biden are all contributing to an aggressive campaign against Trump, but also his enablers in Congress, who have overlooked his transgressions, and now face reelection in their states.

Republican activists, including John Weaver, Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt, George Conway, Bill Kristol, Mike Murphy, Anthony Scaramucci, and independent 2016 nominee Evan McMullin are working not only to stop Trump and his supporters in Congress. They also want to undermine potential 2024 candidates Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri, Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Fox News Channel talk show host Tucker Carlson, all who are rumored to be planning to run in the image of Donald Trump.