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Arizona And Georgia Key States Now, NOT Florida And Texas!

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As a result of the Midterm Elections of 2022, after the Presidential Election of 2020, it is clear that Arizona and Georgia are the key states for the Democrats, although they do not make up for the Republican dominance of Florida and Texas!

But with Pennsylvania and Michigan also becoming more likely Democratic based on recent elections, and adding the Northeast and Pacific Coast, the Midwest states of Illinois and Minnesota, and a few Mountain states, such as Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, the prognosis for the Democrats in 2024 and beyond, is looking good, in regards to the Electoral College!

Automatic Mail Ballots Should Be Sent By All States To All Voters As A National Law To Insure Voting Rights!

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Nine states and Washington, DC send automatic mail ballots to all eligible voters who reside in their states.

These states include:

California
Colorado
Hawaii
Nevada
New Jersey
Oregon
Utah
Vermont
Washington State
Washington, DC

There is no viable reason why voters have to show up in person to vote, as long as they are registered and live in the state they reside in.

Such a system of mail in voting boosts voting, particularly of poor people, racial minorities, the disabled, members of the military, and the elderly.

Voting rights were guaranteed over time, and then added to by the Voting Rights Act of 1965, along with Constitutional amendments 15, 19, 23, 24, and 26, and so therefore, there should be ZERO boundaries for voting!

If we are to remain a democracy, this needs to become a national law that goes into effect by the Presidential Election of 2024, if not earlier with the Midterm Congressional Elections of 2022!

The 2020 US Census Has Surprises, As Announced Today

Ronald 1 Comment

It is ironic that this author wrote about the 2020 Census yesterday, not aware that precise information would be given out today, Monday.

And there are a few surprises.

The total population of the US is over 331 million people, up from about 309 million in 2010.

Texas will gain only two seats, not three, and Florida will gain one seat, not two.

Colorado, North Carolina, Oregon and Montana will gain one seat each.

Arizona, thought to be likely to gain a seat, will not do so.

New York loses one seat, but only because of a shortage of population by the small total of 89 people!

Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, California, and West Virginia will lose one seat for each state, with California losing representation for the first time ever!

Minnesota and Rhode Island, expected to lose one seat each, avoided such a loss.

So now, with Montana gaining a seat, there will only be 6 states with one statewide House member—Alaska, Delaware, Vermont, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.

This is the second slowest population growth in US history, after the 1930s.

And the trend of the South and West gaining at the expense of the Northeast and Midwest continues as it has for many decades.

When Census Figures Come Out Later This Year, It Will Affect Multiple States

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The 2020 Census figures will come out in a few months, and will affect multiple states in Congressional representation in 2022 and beyond, as well as the Electoral College.

A number of the larger populated states will continue to lose representation and electoral votes, as they have faced for several decades.

This includes New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, and Michigan, but also California is likely to lose a Congressional seat and an electoral vote for the first time ever in America history. Also, West Virginia, Rhode Island and Minnesota are likely to lose a seat and an electoral vote.

The states which will gain include Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, and Montana, with Texas and Florida gaining the most.

Montana will move from one statewide House seat to two, while Rhode Island will move from two seats to one, so Rhode Island will join Vermont, Delaware, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming as the seven states that have only one House member for each state.

Presidential Nomination Contest Should Have Representative States In Each Section In First Month Of Primaries

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It seems likely that the whole process of nomination of Presidential candidates based on primaries will undergo dramatic change in 2024 and after.

It is time to stop Iowa and New Hampshire from having the first contests, as neither state is at all representative of the nation, as both are primarily white, rural, and small in population.

Diversity is needed, and the larger states in population should have a greater impact than smaller states in timing of primaries.

And caucuses, now in very few states, need to be abandoned completely.

Regional primaries makes the most sense, with the five major regions rotating in order of timing, but other states in each region given the opportunity to join the representative states if they choose, or else have their later primaries after the first five weeks of the primary season.

So we would have the Atlantic Coast be represented by Pennsylvania; the South represented by Florida; the Midwest represented by Wisconsin; the Mountain and Plains area represented by Colorado; and the Pacific Coast represented by Washington State in the first five weeks, with other states in each region able to add on if they wish, or else come after the first five weeks of primaries, starting in Mid March of the Presidential election year.

Final Projection On Congressional Elections Of 2020

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With only five days to go until the Congressional Elections of 2020, this author and blogger wishes to indicate his final projection on what is likely to happen.

The House of Representatives will witness a major Democratic gain, with the estimate being about 15 seats, to a total of approximately 250 Democrats and 185 Republicans, giving the Democrats a wide margin for the next elections in 2022.

Democrats will gain seats in California, Florida, Illinois, Texas, Virginia and Pennsylvania, reaching about five more than I estimated on May 2 in my earlier projection, and a large number will be female and minority.

The US Senate will see a Democratic takeover, and have 53-55 seats. The Democrats will lose Alabama, regrettably, although Doug Jones is an exceptional Senator, the best Alabama has had in a long time, but Alabama is simply unwilling to appreciate a man as decent and accomplished as Doug Jones. If he does indeed lose his seat, however, Jones should be part of the Biden team, maybe as a cabinet member.

The Republicans will lose seven to nine seats, with assuredly the following seven gains and possibly two more:

Arizona, Mark Kelly over Martha McSally

Colorado, John Hickenlooper over Cory Gardner

Maine, Sara Gideon over Susan Collins

Georgia, Jon Ossoff over David Perdue

Montana, Steve Bullock over Steve Daines

North Carolina, Cal Cunningham over Thom Tillis

Iowa, Theresa Greenfield over Joni Ernst

Kansas, Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall

South Carolina, Jaime Harrison over Lindsey Graham

Georgia’s other seat, presently held by Kelly Loeffler is more difficult to determine, and will not be settled until January.

Sadly, this author and blogger doubts the defeat of John Cornyn in Texas or Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but sees the first seven listed above sure to go Blue, and Kansas and South Carolina possible, so therefore, with the loss of Alabama, but the gain of seven Republican seats, at least 53 Democrats, and the possibility of up to two more, for a grand total of 55 maximum!

Democrats Gaining In Southeast And Southwest, Likely Transforming American Politics In The 2020s

Ronald 2 Comments

Indications are that Democrats are starting to gain support in both the Southeast (North Carolina, Georgia) and the Southwest (Arizona), and are running even in Florida and Texas, and keeping their lead in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

If this trend continues, the Midwest Rust Belt states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania), while still important, will be less significant in future Presidential elections.

And it looks as if many of the Senate seats that are being decided this November will end up with a Democratic Senator–as in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.

The electoral map in future elections will be vastly different than it has been in previous election rounds.

Cuban Americans Are Distinctly Republican, But Competition For The Vote Of Other Latinos Is Strongly Democratic

Ronald 1 Comment

It is well known that the majority of Cuban Americans have been conservative and supporters of the Republican Party, since the first migration of Cubans to South Florida in 1959, and particularly after the failed Bay of Pigs fiasco under President John F. Kennedy in 1961.

And yet, younger Cubans are much more Democratic, as this scholar and professor discovered in his classes over the years.

Still, the effect of Fidel Castro and his brother Raul Castro permeate the strong anti Communism of Cuban Americans in Florida, New Jersey, New York and California, major centers of Cuban Americans. But Cubans are only about 4 percent of all Latino Americans.

Other Latino Americans still tend to be strongly Democratic, so it is expected Joe Biden will win the vast majority of Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, and other Latino groups from Latin America, with the one exception of Venezuelans.

Florida will be more complex because of the strength of the Cuban vote in South Florida, but the growing Puerto Rican presence, especially in central Florida in the last few years, makes it a real competition for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Elsewhere, the Mexican American vote, and population (which is two thirds of all Latinos in America), makes it likely that Arizona may turn “Blue” and that Texas will be much more competitive than ever in the past thirty years. And Georgia and North Carolina also will be tight races due to Latinos.

Already, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado are strongly Democratic.

So the battle for the Latino vote is very much to be noticed in this upcoming Presidential election, and in Senate and House races.

Vote By Mail Should Be Alternative, And Should Be Offered Everywhere This November For All Elections

Ronald 9 Comments

With the nation in the midst of the CoronaVirus Pandemic, it is essential that all states offer Vote by Mail as an alternative, making it mandatory for all elections!

As it is, about 25 percent of voters vote by mail, including this blogger and author.

People who are older; those who are disabled; those who are in hospitals, nursing homes, and other public institutions; and others who find it inconvenient to stand in lines at polls on Election Day already vote by mail.

If Donald Trump had his way, no one would vote by mail, as he knows that is the only way that a majority of people, not electoral votes, would vote for the Republican party. They make it their mission to make voting harder, and to work to undermine the right to vote for minority groups, and make voter suppression their major effort in office!

Standing online yesterday in Wisconsin, forced on voters by the Republican Party of Wisconsin and the US Supreme Court majority of conservative Republicans, was a total outrage and disgrace!

The right to vote is sacred, and no one needs to prove his residence, as long as he or she has registered to vote with proper identification. Once that has been established, we should follow Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah and Hawaii, all enlightened states, that have all of their elections by mail already!

Sixteen other states also have vote by mail allowed, including my state of Florida, but also California and Arizona as major centers of population. allow it.

It is time for such states as New York, Massachusetts, Virginia, Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, and particularly Southern states, to spread democracy to all citizens!

Will South Carolina Be Joe Biden’s Last Hurrah?

Ronald 2 Comments

Indications are, based on recent public opinion polls, that former Vice President Joe Biden is likely to win the South Carolina Presidential Primary this Saturday, by a substantial margin.

The endorsement by African American Congressman and House Majority Whip James Clyburn of Biden is a real boost to Biden’s candidacy.

But the question is whether the upcoming vote is the last Hurrah for Biden, as he lacks adequate financial resources, and is not showing up well in Super Tuesday primaries next Tuesday, when 14 states, including California, Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Colorado as the most significant states, conduct their elections. Senator Bernie Sanders is favored to win most of those primaries.

Winning South Carolina might help, but it is only three days to those Super Tuesday primaries, so if Biden does poorly on Tuesday, March 3, it likely will be the end of his dream of becoming the 46th President of the United States!