Colorado

Time For John Hickenlooper, Steve Bullock, And Beto O’Rourke To Give Up Presidential Candidacies, And Run To Help Create Democratic Senate Majority In 117th Congress!

It is time for three Presidential contenders to give up their candidacies and run instead for the US Senate in their states, and help create a Democratic Senate majority for the 117th Congress of 2021-2022.

Former Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado; Montana Governor Steve Bullock; and former Texas Congressman from El Paso, Beto O’Rourke, have no real opportunity to continue further, although O’Rourke has qualified for the third Democratic debate in Houston in September. Despite that, and his courageous and outstanding reaction to the El Paso Massacre, it is clear that he is NOT going to progress any further to the top tier of candidates.

Bullock is fascinating, and did well in the second Presidential debate, but he came in too late, and has no traction, despite his being quite impressive.

And Hickenlooper, well, he is a massive dud, and apparently is leaving the race later today.

All three would be wonderful Senators, and the Democrats need a minimum gain of four seats, or three, if the Vice President in the next term is a Democrat, and can organize the Senate majority.

If the Democrats win the Presidency, but fail to win the Senate majority, then nothing will be accomplished, as Mitch McConnell or his successor as Senate Majority Leader, will bottleneck any agenda of any Democrat, whether it be Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, or Pete Buttigieg, the most likely choices at this point to be serious contenders for the Democratic nomination for President.

16 Months To Election: 15 States In Contention In Electoral College

With 16 months until the Presidential Election of 2020, the election is settled in 35 states, and the remaining 15 states are in contention, and will decide the Electoral College and the winner of the Presidency.

8 states were Republican last time, but are, in theory, in contention:

Arizona

Florida

Georgia

Michigan

North Carolina

Pennsylvania

Texas

Wisconsin

Additionally, Nebraska is Republican, but allows split electoral votes since 1992, and in 2008, Barack Obama won the 2nd District electoral vote, so in theory, that district, including Omaha and its suburbs, is in contention.

The Democrats won 5 states that are, in theory, in contention:

Colorado

Minnesota

Nevada

New Hampshire

Virginia.

Additionally, Maine is Democratic, but allows split electoral votes since 1972, and Donald Trump won the 2nd District electoral vote, so in theory, that district, including most of the state away from Portland, Augusta and nearby coastal areas, is in contention.

So both Nebraska and Maine have the potential to see one electoral vote go to the loser of the state, in the statewide race.

If the Hispanic-Latino vote can be magnified for the Democrats, it gives them the chance to win Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

The close Democratic majorities in their five states in contention—Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia—give the Republicans the opportunity to pick up electoral votes there.

It seems clear at this time that when and if the Hispanic-Latino vote increases enough for the Democrats, likely by 2024 and 2028, and with increased electoral votes in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas assured after the 2020 Census, then the Democrats could have a lock on the Presidency for the long term, even if the Midwest states of Michigan and Wisconsin become more Republican, and even if Minnesota and Virginia were to become more competitive for the Republicans. And Colorado and Nevada, with increased Hispanic-Latino influence over the next decade, would be more assuredly Democratic as well.

Even Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nebraska would matter far less, as well as Ohio, which now looks out of contention for the Democrats at present.

Four Presidential Candidates Who Should Run For Senate Instead

It is clear, with the announcement today officially that Montana Governor Steve Bullock is running for President, making for a total of 22 candidates, that there are simply too many, and that some of them need to give up the fight, and run instead for the US Senate, to bolster the chances of a Democratic take over in 2020.

Without the Senate, any Democratic President will face the impossibility of accomplishing his or her goals for the nation, both domestically and in foreign affairs.

So some friendly advice as follows:

Steve Bullock of Montana, run for the US Senate, and since you have been a popular Governor for two terms, spend your time on helping the Democrats gain the Senate majority and defeat Senator Steve Daines.

John Hickenlooper of Colorado, the same advice for you, run to defeat Cory Gardner, one of the most endangered Republicans.

Beto O’Rourke of Texas, you could really help make the Lone Star State turn “Blue” after your close race against Ted Cruz in 2018. Run to retire John Cornyn.

And Stacey Abrams, who is rumored to be thinking of announcing for President, instead you should run for Senator in Georgia, and defeat David Perdue.

And Now Number 22 Announces: Colorado Senator Michael Bennet

When this author and blogger published yesterday about the impending announcement of Presidential candidacy by Montana Governor Steve Bullock, he did not know or imagine that Colorado Senator Michael Bennet would “jump the gun” and announce, probably two weeks before Bullock is expected to announce for President.

In any case, once Bullock jumps in the race, with Bennet already now in, we will have 22 Democratic Presidential candidates, the most ever.

However, one can be sure that once the debates begin in late June, and go on for every month, and once the question of money, polls, and adequate staff support start to kick in, we can expect that by the fall, probably half of the group will not be competing in the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary and beyond.

The newest entrant is the 7th sitting US Senator to announce, and has been in the Senate for ten years, first appointed to replace Ken Salazar as he became the Secretary of the Interior under President Barack Obama a decade ago.

Bennet graduated from Wesleyan University, and then Yale Law School, where he was editor in chief of the Yale Law Journal.

Previously, Bennet had been the Chief of Staff to Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, before the latter became Colorado Governor. Ironically, now Bennet is competing with his former boss for the Presidency. He was Superintendant of the Denver Public School System from 2005-2009 before his appointment to the Senate. He was elected to a full term in 2010, and reelected in 2016.

Bennet’s father was a major figure in Democratic politics, having worked for Hubert Humphrey, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton; and his grandfather was an adviser to Franklin D. Roosevelt. The father also was President and CEO of National Public Radio, and President of Wesleyan University, so Bennet comes from a very distinguished background.

When Bennet won his second term in 2016, he gained more votes than Hillary Clinton, who won the state. He also won more votes than any Democrat in Colorado history in a state wide race, and more votes in rural counties than any Democrat in Colorado history.

Bennet has been a typical Democrat in his record on voting, and has been noted for sharp attacks on Senator Ted Cruz, causing more views on C Span when he attacked Cruz in January 2019 for his hypocrisy on the federal government shutdown spurred by President Donald Trump.

Bennet was born with a Jewish mother and Christian father, and while not observant, he acknowledges his Jewish roots.

Bennet underwent what is termed as successful prostate cancer surgery in April, and says it is cured, but that could become an issue in the campaign.

The fact that he was born in New Delhi, India, while his father was an aide to the US Ambassador to India, could become an issue as well, although it seems that he was born on the US Embassy grounds, which would be US territory. This is similar to John McCain born in the Panama Canal Zone, which his dad was serving at the US Navy Air Station in 1936.

Whether Bennet, who is 54, can make a dent in the Presidential campaign is yet to be seen, but at the moment, not perceived as likely. He portrays himself as a pragmatist and centrist. Coming from Colorado, a key purple state that has gone to the Democrats lately, makes him significant, although John Hickenlooper, his former boss, is also competing with his aide for the Presidency.

Joe Biden Moves To The Forefront As Michael Bloomberg And Sherrod Brown Decide Not To Run For President

With moderates Michael Bloomberg and Sherrod Brown deciding not to run for President in 2020, Joe Biden moves to the forefront as the best moderate centrist Democratic Presidential candidate, at least on paper in and polls.

We also have Senator Amy Klobuchar, former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro, former El Paso Congressman Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke, plus possibly John Hickenlooper, former Colorado Governor, who has just announced for President as possible moderates who might compete.

With Klobuchar apparently the only candidate from the Midwest “battleground” states that Hillary Clinton lost, and Castro and O’Rourke from Texas, which could conceivably go “Blue” and make it unnecessary for a Democrat to win the Midwest, and Hickenlooper from a critical Rocky Mountain West state, any of them could be the person to replace Joe Biden, if he falters, and any of them could also be the Vice Presidential running mage with Joe Biden.

At this point, these five listed above are probably those with an edge to win the nation, rather than further left nominees, but it is clear that the race is wide open, and all candidates will have to be vetted, and many will fall short, and none will be perfect in their backgrounds and records in office.

Democrats Won Much Bigger Victory Than Thought On Election Night, Could Be Transformative For Long Term

As more seats are flipping in California, at least four of the 14 previously Republican held seats in the House of Representatives, it looks as if the “Blue Wave” is larger than what occurred for the Republicans in 2010 and 1994, and already is the most for Democrats since 1974 after the Richard Nixon resignation, and the highest percentage voting since 1966, when the Republicans gained seats under Lyndon B. Johnson, in the midst of the Vietnam War escalation.

It is now likely that the Democrats will have gained about 40 seats in the House of Representatives, but also significant are the gains of Democrats in the suburbs of Atlanta, Georgia; Dallas, Texas; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; and the gaining of a majority of House seats in Arizona.

It is now possible to say that Suburbia has become more likely to leave the Republicans behind long term, and join urban areas against the constant support of the rural areas of many states for the Republicans.

White rural America is fighting the tide toward urban and suburban educated people, women, racial and ethic minorities, young people, and independents who are abandoning the Republican Party.

It is clear that the Trump Republican Party is losing out in the long run, just as occurred in California in the 1990s when Republican Governor Pete Wilson worked to pass discriminatory legislation against Hispanics in the state, with the result being overwhelming Democratic control in the state legislature, in state executive offices, and in Congress, where the monopoly of Democrats has become a flood.

We can now imagine a turn in the next decade of Arizona, Texas, and Georgia toward support of the Democrats in Presidential elections by 2024 and 2028 for sure, and once Texas goes that direction, the Presidency is safe in the hands of Democrats.

Already, the Northeast and New England are Democratic strongholds, and the Midwest now has Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota controlled by Democratic Governors in time for reapportionment of seats after the Census of 2020. And in the Mountain West, we see Democrats doing very well in New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada, and having the first Democratic Senator in Arizona in more than thirty years. The Pacific Coast of California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii are also solid.

So even though Ohio and Florida were not bright spots for the Democrats, the old adage that Ohio matters may not matter, and realize that the Buckeye State had a split personality on Election Day, as Democrat Sherrod Brown won an overwhelming victory, even though Republican Mike Dewine defeated Richard Cordray.

Florida is not yet settled at this writing, as a recount is going on, but it could be that Florida will be seen as an outlier, and despite their being the third largest state in population and electoral votes, if and when Texas goes “blue”, and joins California and New York, it might not matter what happens in Florida.

Key Democrats To Elect As State Governors: Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams, Ben Jealous, Gavin Newsom, Richard Cordray, J. D. Pritzker, Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer

It is urgent that Democrats, who at present, only have 16 state governorships, win a majority of the 36 gubernatorial races taking place this November.

Among the crucial races to win are the following:

Andrew Gillum in Florida

Stacey Abrams in Georgia

Ben Jealous in Maryland

Gavin Newsom in California

Richard Cordray in Ohio

J. D. Pritzker in Illinois

Tony Evers in Wisconsin

Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan

With other large states in Democratic hands and likely to remain so, including:

Andrew Cuomo in New York

Tom Wolff in Pennsylvania

it would mean that Democrats would control most of the larger states’ executive branches, crucial for reapportionment of seats in state legislatures and the US House of Representatives after the Census in 2020.

Only Texas of the top ten states in population would be likely to remain Republican, and with North Carolina (Roy Cooper) and New Jersey (Phil Murphy) and Virginia (Ralph Northam) and Washington State (Jay Inslee) all under Democratic Governors, it would mean 12 of the top 13 states with nearly two thirds of the nation’s population would be controlled by Democrats.

Add Democratic states likely to remain so, including Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Louisiana, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, Rhode Island, and the possibility of winning in Maryland, Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont, and New Mexico, and you have a majority of Democratic run state governorships. Finally, Nevada and Arizona seem long shots, but could, in a “Blue Wave” be won by Democratic nominees for governor in those states.

But even if not a majority of states, if the large populated states are won, it will benefit the Democrats in the coming reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives.

11 Democrats, Non-Southerners, Who Became Republicans Over The Past Half Century

It is a well known phenomenon that a massive number of Southern Democratic politicians switched to the Republican Party in the years and decades after the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 under the administration of President Lyndon B. Johnson.

But it would be instructive to trace those Democrats, in their younger days, who were not Southerners, who made the switch from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party.

Following is a list of the more prominent such examples, numbering eleven.

In the early 1960s, actor Ronald Reagan, who had been a liberal Democrat and union leader in his younger days, became a Republican, influenced by his wife Nancy’s father, and soon was recruited by Southern California businessmen to run for Governor, and that was the beginning of an amazing transformation in views.

Donald Trump originally was a Democrat, and contributed to New York City and State Democrats, became an Independent, then went back to the Democrats, and finally allied himself with the Republican Party in 2011 and after.

Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City, started off as a Democrat, and worked for the Robert F. Kennedy campaign in 1968, and voted for the 1972 Democratic Presidential nominee, Senator George McGovern, before becoming an Independent, and then a Republican.

Elizabeth Dole was a Democrat who worked for Lyndon B. Johnson, but later became a Republican in 1975, married Senator Bob Dole, and was a cabinet member twice, sought the Presidential nomination herself, and then was a Senator from North Carolina from 2003-2009 as a Republican.

Vice President Mike Pence left the Democratic Party in the early 1980s, after having supported Jimmy Carter in the 1980 Presidential election, and ran for the House of Representatives and Governorship of Indiana as a Republican.

Condoleezza Rice, left the Democratic party in 1982, and became the National Security Adviser and Secretary of State under Republican President George W. Bush.

Ben (Nighthorse) Campbell left the Democratic Party in 1995, while a US Senator from Colorado, and became a Republican.

Susana Martinez left the Democratic Party in 1995, and later served as Governor of New Mexico as a Republican.

Norm Coleman left the Democratic Party in 1996, while serving as Mayor of St. Paul, Minnesota, and later was a Senator from Minnesota for one term as a Republican.

Herman Badillo, former Bronx, New York Congressman, left the Democrats in 1996, and identified with the Republican Party.

Michael Bloomberg left the Democratic Party in 2001 before running for Mayor of New York City as a Republican, just as Rudy Giuliani had done before him.

Likely Changes In Electoral Votes And Congressional Seats As Result Of 2020 Census Figures

We are two years away from the 2020 Census, which will determine:

Electoral Vote Changes for 15 or 16 states
Congressional Seat Changes for 15 or 16 states
Federal Funding of Domestic Programs for all states

With Donald Trump’s attempt to cut population growth in the Census by putting fear into undocumented immigrants filling out the Census forms, it could affect all of the above.

As things now stand, 6 states are certain to gain electoral votes and Congressional seats, while 9 other states lose electoral votes by 2024, and Congressional seats by the 2022 midterm elections.

Interestingly, California, which has regularly gained multiple seats for decades, has not grown enough in comparison to the total population of the entire nation, so will for the first time ever gain no seats at all. Of course, with many undocumented immigrants, more than any other state, there is a theoretical possibility that California could, conceivably, lose a seat if enough of this group do not fill out Census forms.

The state of Virginia also has not grown enough, just like California, so is unlikely to gain a new electoral vote or Congressional seat.

Texas will likely gain 3 electoral votes and seats, while Florida will gain 2, and with Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, and Oregon all gaining one each. All these states are in the Sun Belt, except Oregon in the Pacific Northwest.

So a total of 9 seats and electoral votes will be gained by a total of 6 states, which means those 9 seats will come from 9 different states, with 7 coming from the Northeast (Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania) and Midwest (Ohio, Michigan Minnesota, Illinois), and two from the South (West Virginia, Alabama).

It is also possible with changes in population in the next three years, that an additional seat could be lost by Illinois, and gained by Montana in the Pacific Northwest, which has lost a seat before, and might gain it back.

So at a maximum, 16 states will see their electoral votes and Congressional seats change, 7 gaining as a maximum and 9 losing as a maximum. The other 34 states will have no change at all.

Also, with Rhode Island about to lose a seat, it will be left with only one Representative At Large, joining Alaska, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Delaware, assuming Montana gains a seat. Otherwise, the total number of states with only one House seat would grow from 7 to 8.

2020 Census Should NOT Have Citizenship Question, A Plot To Harm Major States And Under Count Population, Affecting Millions Of People

Donald Trump is trying to cause a lower census count, with his move to require a citizenship question on the 2020 Census for all people to answer.

In the past, much of the time, there was no citizenship question at all, and when it existed, it was only for the small percentage of people who were asked to fill out a long form, not s short form.

The whole purpose is to scare and frighten undocumented immigrants, who will be concerned about arrest and deportation, and prevent them from filling out the forms.

That will cause an under count in California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgia, North Carolina and other states, and cut available services and funding, since that is based on actual count of population, not estimates.

It is a particular strike against California, which probably has the most undocumented immigrants, and is strongly anti Trump.

17 states have started a law suit to prevent this horrible, discriminatory plan.

The Founding Fathers did not declare a census should only count citizens, but rather all people living in the boundaries of the nation.

This is an assault on common decency and dignity of all people, including the DACA (Deferred Action For Childhood Arrivals) children who are here for decades now, through no action on their own, and who still are not protected from deportation to nations they have no memory of or association with.