“Blue” State

Three Potential Democratic Presidential Contenders In 2020 From Virginia: Terry McAuliffe, Tim Kaine, Mark Warner

As the 2020 Presidential campaign begins, there are three potential candidates who come from Virginia, which has become a very “Blue” state.

Former Governor Terry McAuliffe has hinted he plans to run. He is probably the most controversial of the three Virginians, having been the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee during the first George W. Bush term, as well as Chair of the Hillary Clinton 2008 campaign for President, and co-chairman of the reelection campaign of President Bill Clinton in 1996. He is certainly the most hard nosed politician of the three Virginians.

Senator Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton’s Vice Presidential running mate, may run, but does not seem drawn to the idea of running at this point. Many observers feel that Kaine did not help Hillary Clinton, and was a lackluster campaigner. Also, Kaine is seen as moderate in a party moving to the left rapidly.

Senator Mark Warner, also seen as a moderate, and about the wealthiest member of Congress, has long been thought of as a potential candidate, and he has been very active in pursuing the Russian Collusion investigation in the Senate, as the ranking member or Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Interesting point is that all three Virginians have been Governors of their state, and all three have been seen as successes in that position, leading to Kaine and Warner being elected to the Senate.

But none of these three seem at this point, even if they announce, to be likely to win the Democratic nomination.

The one who might have the best chance is Warner, but although he is a more dynamic person than Kaine, it still seems unlikely that he will get very far in the various primaries and caucuses in 2020.

But of course no one can be sure what will happen in any Presidential campaign, so it will be interesting to see if any of these three Virginia politicians move forward toward the nomination in 2020.

The “Short List” Of Vice Presidential Choices For Hillary Clinton

According to the Associated Press, the “short list” of Vice Presidential choices for Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton includes:

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren

Virginia Senator Tim Kaine

Housing and Urban Development Secretary and former San Antonio, Texas Mayor Julian Castro

All three are excellent choices, but this blogger would recommend Castro as the best choice.

It is important to keep Democrats in the US Senate, as even one seat might matter for a majority.

Castro is only 42, which is wonderful, since he represents a new generation of leadership in the future, and is a Latino of Mexican heritage, the future of America, with 65 percent of all Hispanics in America being of Mexican heritage.

The likelihood of a Latino President in eight years, possibly Castro at age 50, is a great possibility.

Castro may not have direct foreign policy experience, but then neither does Warren, and while Kaine is on the Foreign Relations Committee and speaks Spanish, and is 58, a good age for a Vice President with a President eleven years older, and is an excellent choice, Castro is the best overall fit at this time. He gives the Democrats a chance to make Texas competitive, and move that state toward becoming “Blue” by 2024, when Castro could be the successor to run for President.

Once Texas turns “Blue”, the Electoral College is insured for the Democrats for the long term future!

Right Wing Hysteria Over Obama, Proved Wrong Again And Again!

When Barack Obama was reelected President in 2012, the right wing went nuts, claiming all kinds of disasters for the nation, and they continued to state that in 2014, as well as 2013.

Gasoline was supposed to rise to over $5 a gallon, but instead it is half of that or less.

Unemployment was supposed to stay at 8 percent, but instead it is under 6 percent.

The stock market was going to crash, but instead it is at an all time high.

The American economy was going to go belly up, and instead, we have the strongest growth in many years, and a 5 percent growth rate in the third quarter of 2014.

Nearly eleven million jobs have been created, the most since Bill Clinton was President.

Ebola was supposed to decimate America, and it has, instead, turned out to be a major scare based on hysteria and panic, encouraged by the right wing.

California was going to go bankrupt, and instead has a four billion dollar surplus, a tremendous revival, despite projections that this “blue” state was going down the wrong path, and instead it is Kansas, a “red” state, that is in dire condition because, unlike California, which raised taxes, Kansas cut them dramatically.

Barack Obama was accused of undermining Israel, but it was our Iron Dome system which saved Israel in the recent Mideast conflict, and despite petty differences between Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Obama remains a strong supporter of the Jewish state, without necessarily having to agree on every detail and request of the Israeli government.

Obama was accused of having one scandal after another, but every so called scandal has collapsed on its own weight of no substance, including the attack on Benghazi, Libya, that led to the death of four diplomats and support staff, including the US Ambassador to Libya.

It was said that Barack Obama was going to declare martial law, and that he was lawless and dictatorial, while also being accused of being weak and unwilling to use American military power, but both accusations have been proved ridiculous, and Obama is doing an excellent job of dealing with terrorism in the Middle East and Africa, without putting boots on the ground.

The right wing, whether Fox News Channel, Talk Radio, the Republicans in Congress, or the conservative think tanks, have been proved wrong and hysterical so often, one wonders how any intelligent person could take anything that they claim to be legitimate!

The Odyssey Of Charlie Crist

Former Republican Governor Charlie Crist of Florida is attempting a comeback to the Governorship, this time as a Democrat, after having left the GOP in 2010, running as an Independent for the US Senate, which he also ran for as a Republican in 1998.

This is the most important race for the Governorship, as Florida is the largest state to have a truly competitive race for Governor or Senator, as California and New York are “Blue”, and Texas is “Red”.

This is also a rare case of a Governor switching parties and winning on the other party line, only five times before in American history, and also a rare race of a former Governor against the sitting Governor who replaced  him, with Rick Scott being his opponent.

Crist is seen by many as a chameleon, a person who is untrustworthy and slick and good at manipulation, but also he is extremely charismatic, a great orator, very handsome with his white hair, and someone hard not to like on a personal level, while Scott is none of these attributes, and is seen by many as totally crooked, with his Medicare scams that he paid millions of dollars in fines, but avoided prison time, which many think he should have served!

It is ironic that Charlie Crist was on the short list of Senator John McCain for Vice President in 2008, and now, if he wins the Governorship of the fourth largest state, and a crucial swing state for 2016, it is conceivable that he could be the Vice Presidential running mate of Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, or really, almost any Democratic Presidential nominee.

And of course, were something to go wrong, he could be President of the United States by succession, or even being the nominee in four to eight years after 2016 for the Presidency, after having served as Vice President of the United States!

What an interesting odyssey for Charlie Crist, and the future is there for much more, if he is able to come back as Florida Governor!

Six Cities For Democrats and Four For Republicans Competing For 2016 National Conventions!

The bids are in for the two national conventions of the major political parties competing for the Presidency in 2016.

The Democrats have bids from Birmingham, Alabama; Cleveland, Ohio; Columbus, Ohio; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; New York City (Brooklyn); and Phoenix, Arizona.

The Republicans have bids from Cleveland, Ohio; Dallas, Texas: Denver, Colorado; and Kansas City, Missouri.

It would be interesting if both parties chose Cleveland, as the parties have, occasionally, chosen the same city for their conventions, but somehow, this author does not see either party actually choosing Cleveland.

What makes the most sense is to choose a city in a state that is competitive, or significant enough to be considered possibly a win for the political party involved.

Going on that assumption, it makes no sense for Birmingham, Alabama to be chosen by the Democrats.

New York City (Brooklyn) would be a popular favorite, but New York is guaranteed to the Democrat Presidential nominee in 2016.

Philadelphia would be a good choice, in a state which could be competitive, although the Democrats are a heavy favorite to win the state, so it seems unlikely as the choice that will be made.

So that leaves Columbus, Ohio and Phoenix, Arizona as the remaining choices, as both states are highly competitive, but with Ohio more likely to go Democratic, and being, in many ways, the key swing state.

So the prediction of this blogger is that Columbus will be the host for the Democratic National Convention, the capital city of the state, and a better choice, overall, than Cleveland would be.

As far as the Republicans are concerned, the best choice, in the opinion of the blogger, is Denver, Colorado, a true swing state, but Dallas would be the backup if the GOP wants to send the message just how important Texas is, as the danger of an eventual move toward becoming a “blue” state becomes more possible as the years go by.

So the emotional favorite for this author for the Democrats is his home of New York, which he left for Florida 25 years ago, but the likelihood that Columbus will be chosen, with a backup of Phoenix.

While the author has no emotional favorite for the Republicans, the likely emotional choice for them would be Dallas, but with the likelihood that Denver will be chosen, and doubtful for Kansas City and, particularly, for Cleveland!

We shall see how accurate the author is in his predictions of Columbus for the Democrats and Denver for the Republicans!

Texas Republicans Go Far Right Tea Party Extreme! But Wendy Davis And Castro Brothers Make For Democratic Future!

Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick are the most right wing candidates in the country in many respects, as the GOP nominees for Governor and Lieutenant Governor of the Lone Star State, Texas! They make outgoing Governor Rick Perry and Senator John Cornyn look moderate, which they, most certainly, are NOT! Abbott and Patrick are more in the tradition of Senator Ted Cruz, and with many loony Tea Party type Congressmen in Texas, it bodes ill for the future of Latinos, African Americans, women, labor, and environmentalists in the state of Texas!

Denial of health care to millions, and promotion of creationism and denial of global warming, and shaping their own distorted view of American history is also part of the cancer of the right wing tilt going on in Texas in the Republican Party!

But the Democrats are not giving up on the possibility of their Gubernatorial nominee, Wendy Davis, being triumphant this fall, and already, there is discussion of Congressman Joaquin Castro of San Antonio, challenging Senator Ted Cruz for his Senate seat in 2018.

At the same time, a campaign for his identical twin brother, outgoing San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, newly selected to be Housing and Urban Development Secretary for President Obama, to be a possible Vice Presidential running mate in the 2016 Presidential election is being seriously discussed.

It could be that the Castro twins could be the redemption of a state rapidly moving toward a likely “Blue” or Democratic status by 2020, with the chance it could happen with a possible Wendy Davis victory in 2014, followed by Julian Castro being on the team of any Democratic Presidential nominee, not just Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, in 2016!

Texas And Florida: Two States With Two Competing Presidential Candidates For The GOP!

Texas is the second largest state in population, and Florida is soon to be the third largest state.

Texas is “red”, but seen as turning “purple” and eventually “blue” by 2020 or after.

Florida is “purple”, strongly Republican, but won by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Both are extremely important battlegrounds for the future of the Presidency, with a total population of about 45 million combined, and becoming more Hispanic and Latino annually.

And both have two competing Presidential candidates for the Republican nomination for President in 2016.

Texas has outgoing Governor Rick Perry and freshman Senator Ted Cruz, while Florida has former Governor Jeb Bush (whose brother and father were elected to public office from Texas), and freshman Senator Marco Rubio.

Cruz and Rubio are the new generation, while Perry is the longest serving Governor of Texas, and one of the longest serving Governors in American history, and Jeb Bush was last in public office eight years ago, and last competed in an election 12 years ago.

Bush and Perry both have ties to George W. Bush, one his brother, and the other his Lieutenant Governor, who succeeded him when he was elected President.

One would have to say that Bush and Rubio seem far more likely contenders than Perry and Cruz, with both ranked higher on lists by political prognosticators.

It seems clear that Rubio is unlikely to run if Bush does, while Perry and Cruz will both compete, neither one wishing to give in to the other.

As far as becoming President, it will be very difficult for any Republican, but the best betting money is on Jeb Bush if he announces, as his overall image, despite his last name, puts him near the top of the potential list of nominees for the White House!

Virginia Turning Blue: Great Sign For Democratic Party Future!

Virginia, the home of more Presidents than any other state, has been seen as a bellwether state, as it holds its state elections in the year after the Presidential election.

For the first time since 1969, Virginia now has a Democratic Governor, Terry McAuliffe, along with a Democratic Lieutenant Governor, a Democratic Attorney General (although a recount is going on as the victory was razor thin), and two Democratic Senators (Mark Warner and Tim Kaine).

Assuming the recount for Attorney General keeps the Democrat as the winner, it is a sign that the right wing Republican Party in Virginia has lost its bearings, and that the state of Virginia, while still officially seen as purple, is really becoming a Democratic state, largely due to the growing influence of federal government workers, a large portion of the population in the Northern Virginia counties.

It is also seen as a great moment for Hillary Clinton, who is closely associated with new Governor Terry McAuliffe, a prodigious fund raiser for her husband, Bill Clinton, when he was in office.

With Virginia in the Democratic camp, the future of the party is in good shape for Presidential races (with Barack Obama winning the state twice), and Virginia’s trend may soon be seen in Georgia and Texas.

As California Turned “Blue”, Texas Will, Very Likely, As Well By 2020!

It is hard to recall that California was for a long time strongly Republican in Presidential contests and in Congressional seats as well, but the decision of the Republican Party to work against the interests of Hispanic and Latino Americans under Governor Pete Wilson twenty years ago doomed the GOP in that state, to the point that there are hardly any Republicans in the Congressional delegation and a minority in both houses of the state legislature. Additionally, California is no longer a battle ground for the Presidential elections, and having 55 electoral votes is twenty percent of what is needed for winning the Presidency!

Once Hispanic and Latino Americans in Texas, the second largest state in population, become more active in voting, and as more young Hispanics and Latinos grow up to the age of voting, and realize the importance of fighting against the regressive attitudes of Governor Rick Perry and the Texas Congressional delegation and state legislature, the odds of the state electing a Democratic Governor and winning more Congressional seats, and turning “Blue” for the Presidential elections of the future, in the same manner as California, becomes much more likely. And 38 electoral votes, added to the 55 of California, gives future Democrats one third of all of the electoral votes needed to win the White House!

With rising stars such as State Senator Wendy Davis, who is leading the fight against a strict abortion law in the state legislature; and with the rise of Mayor Julian Castro of San Antonio, and his brother, Congressman Joaquin Castro, the rise of the Hispanic and Latino participation, and that of the women who feel wronged by the extremist agenda of Rick Perry and the conservative Republican legislature, will eventually reverberate on elections over the next seven years!

So the GOP may have dominance in the Lone Star State right now, but the odds of it changing dramatically by 2020 and after is very high. The Democrats will be unlikely to win the state in the Presidential Election of 2016, but very likely to have a real opportunity to do so in the Presidential Election of 2020, and once that happens, the GOP will be on its death bed, at least in the sense of being able to count on the backing of the second largest state, and that will make the Republican Party a minority party for the long haul, if it indeed survives!

Early Presidential Poll Shows Hillary Clinton Way Ahead Of Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, And Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton, former First Lady, New York Senator, and Secretary of State, is quietly mulling the possibility of seeking the Presidency in 2016.

At this point, in an early poll, Clinton is way ahead of three leading potential Republican opponents according to the latest Quinnipiac poll:

Against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie—8 points

Against Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan—12 points

Against Florida Senator Marco Rubio—16 points

And the indications are that Hillary Clinton could turn Texas, the second largest state in population and electoral votes, “blue” by 2016, with about 900,000 new Latino population growth, and only less than 200,00 Anglo white population growth.

And different polls show Clinton winning Wisconsin against Ryan and Governor Scott Walker, and winning Florida against Rubio and former Governor Jeb Bush.

Of course, it is much too early to have a definitive conclusion, but right now Hillary is in great shape. However, in 2006, she was also in “great shape” in polls, but still lost the nomination to Barack Obama in 2008!