Barack Obama

Iowa Presidential Debate Crucial As Caucuses Are Three Weeks From Today

The Democratic Presidential debate on Tuesday night is crucial as the caucuses near us three weeks from today.

The latest polls indicate close to a four way split, with only five points between first place finisher Bernie Sanders and fourth place finisher Joe Biden.

It is clear anything could happen on February 3, and it could dramatically influence New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada later in February.

We must remember that Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008 went on to the Presidency after winning iowa in those years.

A win in Iowa could lead to victories in New Hampshire and onward, and that, if occurring, could have a dramatic effect on Super Tuesday, when 14 states, including California and Texas, the two largest, vote in primaries and caucuses on March 3.

A failure to end up at least in third place in Iowa would likely be the death knell of a candidacy.

And yet, even Amy Klobuchar, who is not seen seriously right now, but being from neighboring state Minnesota, could surprise us, having visited all 99 counties in Iowa.

So Tuesday’s debate will be a test of how she can perform, along with how Joe Biden will fare, and also whether Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, numbers one and two, treat each other. Additionally, whether Pete Buttigieg, now third in most polls, can compete against his older and more experienced rivals.

How the debate is judged by media will certainly have a dramatic effect on the likely voting lineup on February 3.

But an additional potential influence on what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire is the upcoming Impeachment Trial of Donald Trump, which will force Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar off the campaign trail, possibly giving an edge to Biden and Buttigieg.

The Ten Major Heroes Of Public Affairs In 2019

The list of major heroes of public affairs in 2019 would include the following in no special order:

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi of California

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff of California

Former House Oversight Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings of Maryland

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler of New York

Former President Jimmy Carter of Georgia

Former President Barack Obama of Illinois

Former Vice President Joe Biden of Maryland

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg

Representative Ted Deutch of Florida

Representative Eric Swalwell of California

Who Does Barack Obama Want To Be The Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Former President Barack Obama has been very careful to avoid any hint of who he supports for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but making clear he will endorse someone when the smoke has cleared, and it is obvious who is the future nominee.

That is not a new idea for former Presidents, as they do not wish to undermine their own reputations by interfering in the process in an open fashion.

But there are strong rumors that Obama tried to convince former Vice President Joe Biden not to run, only to be ignored by Biden.

There are also strong hints that Obama is concerned that if Senator Bernie Sanders or Senator Elizabeth Warren is the nominee, that it will harm the Democrats’ chances to win over Donald Trump, as Obama seems to believe that Medicare for All is a losing proposition with many voters.

The feeling seems to exist that Obama might prefer Mayor Pete Buttigieg as a bridge to the future, as he was, and as John F. Kennedy was 60 years ago.

South Carolina Primary: Why Do African Americans In That State Favor Joe Biden Over Kamala Harris And Cory Booker?

One of the great mysteries of the 2020 Presidential campaign is the massive support in public opinion polls for Joe Biden in the South Carolina primary coming up in February.

Biden has a mixed record on race, considering that he opposed school busing in the 1970s, and was a cosponsor of a tough crime bill in 1994, which led to a large number of African Americans being incarcerated, some unjustly, by a very harsh piece of legislation.

It seems Biden’s support may be due more to the fact that he served as Vice President under President Barack Obama, and yet Obama has purposely not endorsed his former Vice President.

Right now, Joe Biden is not doing well in public opinion polls in Iowa or New Hampshire, so South Carolina, with its large African American population, may be his ultimate life line.

But the debate is why are not Senator Kamala Harris of California and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey doing well in South Carolina, as one would have thought?

And also, will the other African American candidate, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, late in entering the Presidential race, perform any better than Harris or Booker?

Thanksgiving Day A Day To Be Thankful For In Many Ways

Today is Thanksgiving Day, and we have a lot to be thankful for.

We are thankful that we have a democratic system of government, where there is accountability for one’s behavior in our Constitution and Bill of Rights.

We have violations in our history much too often, but the Constitution and Bill of Rights have ability to be utilized to counteract such violations.

Thank goodness that the Democrats won the House of Representatives in 2018, and are putting Donald Trump’s feet to the fire, no matter what happens in the US Senate.

The Republican Party is sealing its long term doom if it continues to back the lawlessness and corruption of Donald Trump.

Donald Trump, no matter what happens in 2020, will have his historical reputation in tatters, as his lack of ethics, morality, common decency, and concern for those less fortunate, guarantee his condemnation in the long run of history.

While neither political party is ideal or perfect, the Democratic Party is triumphant in the long run of history for having concerned itself with the advancement of average Americans from FDR to LBJ to Barack Obama.

There is plenty of room for improvement, but the Republican Party of Lincoln, TR, and Ike is long gone, and the GOP stands condemned for its lack of concern for average Americans since the inauguration of Ronald Reagan onward.

Corruption Levels Of Democratic And Republican Presidencies Since 1963

Fifty six years have passed since Lyndon B. Johnson became President, and in that period, we have had six Republican Presidents and four Democratic Presidents.

Republicans have held the Presidency thirty plus years since 1969, and Democrats have been in the White House for 25 years in that half century plus.

The record shows that Democrats have had a total of three executive branch officials indicted, with one conviction and one prison sentence.

Meanwhile, Republicans have had a total of 120 executive branch officials indicted, with 89 criminal convictions and 33 prison sentences.

To be fair, Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush each had one indictment, one conviction, and one prison sentence each.

But Richard Nixon had 76 criminal indictments, 55 convictions, and 15 prison sentences, while Ronald Reagan had 26 criminal indictments, 16 convictions, and 8 prison sentences, and George W. Bush had 16 criminal indictments, 16 convictions, and 8 prison sentences.

Meanwhile, Bill Clinton had, after all the investigations and publicity by Republicans in Congress, a total of 2 criminal indictments, one conviction, and one prison sentence. Jimmy Carter had one indictment, and no convictions and no prison sentences, while Barack Obama had ZERO indictments, convictions, and prison sentences.

And then, there is Donald Trump, who already, in less than three years, has seen 6 major figures indicted and convicted and having prison sentences, including Michael Cohen, Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, George Papadopoulos, and now, Roger Stone, and many others Russian connected also facing criminal charges that may not lead to convictions because they are in Russia.

And this does not include the many past and present cabinet members and other significant figures who have been caught in corruption, and will, in many cases, face indictments, convictions, and prison sentences in the future, as this administration is likely to surpass all previous Republican Presidents in levels of criminality!

Is Kamala Harris Indeed “The Female Barack Obama”? The Hype Seems Not To Be Happening For 2020

California Senator Kamala Harris seemed to be on the road to becoming “The Female Barack Obama”, a person of mixed race, attractive appearance, and the potential to be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2020.

But, surprisingly, Harris has languished in the background, seemingly faltering, while Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, has surged to number four among Democratic candidates, replacing Harris.

While it is too early to write Harris off, the feeling is developing that she will not win any early state in February, and might have trouble even in California on Super Tuesday, by the power of Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg.

In theory, Harris could be a Vice Presidential running mate, but more likely, she will simply have a long career in the US Senate, and maybe pursue the Presidency in a later time in the mid to late 2020s.

A Sense Of What Might Happen In The Presidential Election Of 2020

This blogger and author has been away for a few days, and has decided to wait until we know the results of the few elections taking place in 2019, before making an educated guess on the Presidential Election Of 2020. With the upset victory of Andy Beshear over Matt Bevin for the Kentucky Governorship, and the gaining of the majority in both houses of the Virginia legislature for the first time in a quarter century, the situation for Democrats looks very promising for 2020.

Understand, without a clear answer as to who the Democratic Presidential nominee will be, it is far from easy to judge how the nation will go a year from now.

But with signs that college educated people, inner suburbs, women, African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, and young people are alienated from Donald Trump and the Republican Party, here is my estimate of what might happen, subject to change, and a final judgment in late October of 2020.

Let us begin with what states are assured to be in the Democratic camp next year:

New England states—Maine (including the 2nd Congressional district which went to Donald Trump in 2016), Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island–a total of 33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic states–New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia—a total of 59 electoral votes

Southern states—Virginia—13 electoral votes

Midwest states—Illinois, Minnesota—30 electoral votes

Mountain West states—New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado—20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast states—California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii—78 electoral votes

This group of guaranteed states for the Democrats number 20 plus DC, and a total of 233 electoral votes, 37 short of the number needed to win the Presidency.

Now, states likely to go to the Democrats in order of odds—Arizona (11) and Florida (29)–a total of 40 electoral votes, giving the Democrats 273 electoral votes, 3 more than needed to win the Presidency.

Other states that might go to the Democrats—in order of odds—Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16)—a total of 77 additional electoral votes.

This would make for a total of 27 states plus DC, and a grand total of 350 electoral votes.

But also, one more electoral vote is possible, the 2nd Congressional district of Nebraska (Omaha metropolitan area), which voted for Barack Obama in 2008, so a final total of 351 electoral votes, leaving 187 electoral votes for Donald Trump or Mike Pence, or whoever the Republican Presidential nominee might be.

So the Republicans would win 23 states—West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas (all in the South)–Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska except for the 2nd Congressional District, Kansas, Oklahoma in the Midwest and Great Plains—and Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Alaska in the Mountain West—a total of 187 electoral votes!

I welcome commentary on my estimate, and it will be an exciting year to November 3, 2020!

One Year To The Presidential Election Of 2020: My Past Record On The Last Three Presidential Elections

Here we are one year before the Presidential Election of 2020, and one of my contributors-commentators on this blog, D, asked awhile back that I come up with an estimate of what might happen in the upcoming Presidential contest.

I wish to point out that in 2008, I predicted the results of the Electoral College within one electoral vote, as I thought the Electoral College would be 364-174, and it ended up as 365-173.

I had not thought that one district in Nebraska, in the Omaha metropolitan area, would give an electoral vote to Barack Obama over John McCain, with Nebraska and Maine being the two states that have permitted split electoral votes, and with Nebraska only doing this in 2008. My article on this election was on November 2, 2008.

On November 4, 2012, my article predicted that Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney by an electoral vote of 332-206, and celebrated the precise electoral vote victory in an entry on November 9, 2012.

In 2016, I predicted on November 5, 2016, that Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump by a margin of 352-186, and was, like everyone else, totally off base, and still recovering from the shock in 2019.

So I have been accurate twice, and totally wrong the most recent time, and now it is time for projecting what might happen in the year 2020, although the estimate and judgment could be changed dramatically by events not possible to predict.

And since we do not know who the nominees of the major parties will be, it is much harder to project the ultimate result.

However, I will post my prediction, after being away for a few days, in midweek, and I welcome commentary by anyone reading this blog.

14 Weeks Until First Vote In Iowa Caucuses

As the House of Representatives is working on its impeachment inquiry involving President Donald Trump, the political calendar is starting to close in on many Democratic Presidential contenders.

It is now only 14 weeks until the first Americans vote on 2020, with the Iowa Caucuses taking place on Monday, February 3.

Iowa is not truly decisive on who wins the nomination and the Presidency in either major political party, as the only times that Iowa was a sign of the future was when an incumbent President was not on the ballot, and even then, not very often.

Democratic Party

Walter Mondale in 1984

Al Gore in 2000

John Kerry in 2004

Barack Obama in 2008

Hillary Clinton in 2016

George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Bill Clinton in 1992 failed to win Iowa.

Republican Party

Gerald Ford in 1976

Bob Dole in 1996

George W. Bush in 2000

Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Donald Trump in 2016 failed to win Iowa.

So only George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008 won Iowa and went on to win the Presidency in the fall of those years.

So do not expect that who wins Iowa will automatically be the nominee for the Democrats in November 2020.

Since 1972, Iowa has been accurate on the Democratic nominee 43 percent of the time, and 50 percent accurate on the Republican nominee.

Iowa is not representative of the nation in its population mix, but it gives a leg up to a few of the candidates, while dashing the hopes of so many others.