Barack Obama

South Carolina Primary: Why Do African Americans In That State Favor Joe Biden Over Kamala Harris And Cory Booker?

One of the great mysteries of the 2020 Presidential campaign is the massive support in public opinion polls for Joe Biden in the South Carolina primary coming up in February.

Biden has a mixed record on race, considering that he opposed school busing in the 1970s, and was a cosponsor of a tough crime bill in 1994, which led to a large number of African Americans being incarcerated, some unjustly, by a very harsh piece of legislation.

It seems Biden’s support may be due more to the fact that he served as Vice President under President Barack Obama, and yet Obama has purposely not endorsed his former Vice President.

Right now, Joe Biden is not doing well in public opinion polls in Iowa or New Hampshire, so South Carolina, with its large African American population, may be his ultimate life line.

But the debate is why are not Senator Kamala Harris of California and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey doing well in South Carolina, as one would have thought?

And also, will the other African American candidate, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, late in entering the Presidential race, perform any better than Harris or Booker?

Thanksgiving Day A Day To Be Thankful For In Many Ways

Today is Thanksgiving Day, and we have a lot to be thankful for.

We are thankful that we have a democratic system of government, where there is accountability for one’s behavior in our Constitution and Bill of Rights.

We have violations in our history much too often, but the Constitution and Bill of Rights have ability to be utilized to counteract such violations.

Thank goodness that the Democrats won the House of Representatives in 2018, and are putting Donald Trump’s feet to the fire, no matter what happens in the US Senate.

The Republican Party is sealing its long term doom if it continues to back the lawlessness and corruption of Donald Trump.

Donald Trump, no matter what happens in 2020, will have his historical reputation in tatters, as his lack of ethics, morality, common decency, and concern for those less fortunate, guarantee his condemnation in the long run of history.

While neither political party is ideal or perfect, the Democratic Party is triumphant in the long run of history for having concerned itself with the advancement of average Americans from FDR to LBJ to Barack Obama.

There is plenty of room for improvement, but the Republican Party of Lincoln, TR, and Ike is long gone, and the GOP stands condemned for its lack of concern for average Americans since the inauguration of Ronald Reagan onward.

Corruption Levels Of Democratic And Republican Presidencies Since 1963

Fifty six years have passed since Lyndon B. Johnson became President, and in that period, we have had six Republican Presidents and four Democratic Presidents.

Republicans have held the Presidency thirty plus years since 1969, and Democrats have been in the White House for 25 years in that half century plus.

The record shows that Democrats have had a total of three executive branch officials indicted, with one conviction and one prison sentence.

Meanwhile, Republicans have had a total of 120 executive branch officials indicted, with 89 criminal convictions and 33 prison sentences.

To be fair, Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush each had one indictment, one conviction, and one prison sentence each.

But Richard Nixon had 76 criminal indictments, 55 convictions, and 15 prison sentences, while Ronald Reagan had 26 criminal indictments, 16 convictions, and 8 prison sentences, and George W. Bush had 16 criminal indictments, 16 convictions, and 8 prison sentences.

Meanwhile, Bill Clinton had, after all the investigations and publicity by Republicans in Congress, a total of 2 criminal indictments, one conviction, and one prison sentence. Jimmy Carter had one indictment, and no convictions and no prison sentences, while Barack Obama had ZERO indictments, convictions, and prison sentences.

And then, there is Donald Trump, who already, in less than three years, has seen 6 major figures indicted and convicted and having prison sentences, including Michael Cohen, Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, George Papadopoulos, and now, Roger Stone, and many others Russian connected also facing criminal charges that may not lead to convictions because they are in Russia.

And this does not include the many past and present cabinet members and other significant figures who have been caught in corruption, and will, in many cases, face indictments, convictions, and prison sentences in the future, as this administration is likely to surpass all previous Republican Presidents in levels of criminality!

Is Kamala Harris Indeed “The Female Barack Obama”? The Hype Seems Not To Be Happening For 2020

California Senator Kamala Harris seemed to be on the road to becoming “The Female Barack Obama”, a person of mixed race, attractive appearance, and the potential to be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2020.

But, surprisingly, Harris has languished in the background, seemingly faltering, while Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, has surged to number four among Democratic candidates, replacing Harris.

While it is too early to write Harris off, the feeling is developing that she will not win any early state in February, and might have trouble even in California on Super Tuesday, by the power of Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg.

In theory, Harris could be a Vice Presidential running mate, but more likely, she will simply have a long career in the US Senate, and maybe pursue the Presidency in a later time in the mid to late 2020s.

A Sense Of What Might Happen In The Presidential Election Of 2020

This blogger and author has been away for a few days, and has decided to wait until we know the results of the few elections taking place in 2019, before making an educated guess on the Presidential Election Of 2020. With the upset victory of Andy Beshear over Matt Bevin for the Kentucky Governorship, and the gaining of the majority in both houses of the Virginia legislature for the first time in a quarter century, the situation for Democrats looks very promising for 2020.

Understand, without a clear answer as to who the Democratic Presidential nominee will be, it is far from easy to judge how the nation will go a year from now.

But with signs that college educated people, inner suburbs, women, African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, and young people are alienated from Donald Trump and the Republican Party, here is my estimate of what might happen, subject to change, and a final judgment in late October of 2020.

Let us begin with what states are assured to be in the Democratic camp next year:

New England states—Maine (including the 2nd Congressional district which went to Donald Trump in 2016), Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island–a total of 33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic states–New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia—a total of 59 electoral votes

Southern states—Virginia—13 electoral votes

Midwest states—Illinois, Minnesota—30 electoral votes

Mountain West states—New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado—20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast states—California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii—78 electoral votes

This group of guaranteed states for the Democrats number 20 plus DC, and a total of 233 electoral votes, 37 short of the number needed to win the Presidency.

Now, states likely to go to the Democrats in order of odds—Arizona (11) and Florida (29)–a total of 40 electoral votes, giving the Democrats 273 electoral votes, 3 more than needed to win the Presidency.

Other states that might go to the Democrats—in order of odds—Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16)—a total of 77 additional electoral votes.

This would make for a total of 27 states plus DC, and a grand total of 350 electoral votes.

But also, one more electoral vote is possible, the 2nd Congressional district of Nebraska (Omaha metropolitan area), which voted for Barack Obama in 2008, so a final total of 351 electoral votes, leaving 187 electoral votes for Donald Trump or Mike Pence, or whoever the Republican Presidential nominee might be.

So the Republicans would win 23 states—West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas (all in the South)–Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska except for the 2nd Congressional District, Kansas, Oklahoma in the Midwest and Great Plains—and Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Alaska in the Mountain West—a total of 187 electoral votes!

I welcome commentary on my estimate, and it will be an exciting year to November 3, 2020!

One Year To The Presidential Election Of 2020: My Past Record On The Last Three Presidential Elections

Here we are one year before the Presidential Election of 2020, and one of my contributors-commentators on this blog, D, asked awhile back that I come up with an estimate of what might happen in the upcoming Presidential contest.

I wish to point out that in 2008, I predicted the results of the Electoral College within one electoral vote, as I thought the Electoral College would be 364-174, and it ended up as 365-173.

I had not thought that one district in Nebraska, in the Omaha metropolitan area, would give an electoral vote to Barack Obama over John McCain, with Nebraska and Maine being the two states that have permitted split electoral votes, and with Nebraska only doing this in 2008. My article on this election was on November 2, 2008.

On November 4, 2012, my article predicted that Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney by an electoral vote of 332-206, and celebrated the precise electoral vote victory in an entry on November 9, 2012.

In 2016, I predicted on November 5, 2016, that Hillary Clinton would win over Donald Trump by a margin of 352-186, and was, like everyone else, totally off base, and still recovering from the shock in 2019.

So I have been accurate twice, and totally wrong the most recent time, and now it is time for projecting what might happen in the year 2020, although the estimate and judgment could be changed dramatically by events not possible to predict.

And since we do not know who the nominees of the major parties will be, it is much harder to project the ultimate result.

However, I will post my prediction, after being away for a few days, in midweek, and I welcome commentary by anyone reading this blog.

14 Weeks Until First Vote In Iowa Caucuses

As the House of Representatives is working on its impeachment inquiry involving President Donald Trump, the political calendar is starting to close in on many Democratic Presidential contenders.

It is now only 14 weeks until the first Americans vote on 2020, with the Iowa Caucuses taking place on Monday, February 3.

Iowa is not truly decisive on who wins the nomination and the Presidency in either major political party, as the only times that Iowa was a sign of the future was when an incumbent President was not on the ballot, and even then, not very often.

Democratic Party

Walter Mondale in 1984

Al Gore in 2000

John Kerry in 2004

Barack Obama in 2008

Hillary Clinton in 2016

George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Bill Clinton in 1992 failed to win Iowa.

Republican Party

Gerald Ford in 1976

Bob Dole in 1996

George W. Bush in 2000

Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, Mitt Romney in 2012, and Donald Trump in 2016 failed to win Iowa.

So only George W. Bush in 2000 and Barack Obama in 2008 won Iowa and went on to win the Presidency in the fall of those years.

So do not expect that who wins Iowa will automatically be the nominee for the Democrats in November 2020.

Since 1972, Iowa has been accurate on the Democratic nominee 43 percent of the time, and 50 percent accurate on the Republican nominee.

Iowa is not representative of the nation in its population mix, but it gives a leg up to a few of the candidates, while dashing the hopes of so many others.

Death Of ISIS Leader A Momentary Positive For Donald Trump, But It Will Not Last

The announcement this morning of the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi by Special Forces in Syria is a momentary positive for Donald Trump, as was the case with the death of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan on May 2, 2011 during the administration of Barack Obama.

It will certainly go down as an accomplishment that Trump can lay claim to, as Obama did with Osama bin Laden.

But it does not mean that America is safely isolated from the Middle East quagmire, and since so many ISIS fighters were released from prison as a result of the Turkish assault in Syria against Kurds in the past two weeks, one can be sadly assured that there will be a revival of ISIS under different leadership, ready to commit terrorist acts and torture people as they did from 2014 onward.

The likelihood of ISIS retribution for the death of their leader is certain, and will affect European nations but also the United States, making the idea of foreign travel by Americans not a good idea short term, and possibly, long term.

We can rejoice and congratulate Donald Trump on this, but the road ahead in international affairs in the year up to the Presidential Election of 2020 is impossible to predict, as to whether it will benefit Trump, or his Democratic opposition, all based on events we cannot forecast.

Donald Trump Donation Of Salary Not Unique: Herbert Hoover And John F. Kennedy Also Donated Their Salary To Charity

Donald Trump once again showed he was a liar, more than 13,000 times in less than three years, when he asserted yesterday, that he was the first President since George Washington to donate his salary to charity.

First point to make is if he did donate his salary, which one can highly doubt, who gained the benefit is the question. Trump has claimed he has given to the National Park Service (hard to believe); the Department of Education; the Department of Veterans Affairs; the Small Business Administration; the Surgeon General’s Office; and the Department of Agriculture. I would think there should be some proof beyond his statement, with his consistent habit of lying about everything imaginable.

Secondly, the record shows two Presidents, both super wealthy for their times, regularly donated their salaries. These were the 31st President, Herbert Hoover (1929-1933), and the 35th President, John F. Kennedy (1961-1963).

Finally, even if Donald Trump is donating his salary, by playing golf, he has spent at least 83 years of his salary on his hobby, at taxpayer expense. And he has spent more on golf in less than three years in office than Barack Obama spent on vacations over eight years.

A Sense That Pete Buttigieg Is On The Rise As A Moderate Alternative To Joe Biden

The big winner of the Ohio Presidential debate this past week seems to many to be Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, who is seen as on the rise as a moderate alternative to Joe Biden.

Mayor Pete has been successful in raising large amounts of money in the third quarter, and his debate performance demonstrated his intelligence, his knowledge, and his perception of what Americans want, similar in his understanding of what Americans were looking for as when they voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

He is not promoting “pie in the sky”, massive changes in four years, as Bernie Sanders, and even Elizabeth Warren are doing, knowing full well that the nation is not going to elect a Democratic Congress large enough in majority to do the kinds of path breaking changes that Franklin D. Roosevelt and Lyndon B. Johnson were able to bring about in 1935-1936 and 1965-1966, respectively.

As Pete has said, we first need to recover from the chaos and anarchy of Donald Trump, and to expect the nation to go to the far left, and support a required end of all private health insurance, is simply not reality.

This blogger takes the view that Americans should have a choice of keeping the health care coverage they have, or move toward government control through Medicare, but not force it on everyone over a four year period, and always allow private health insurance as an alternative, left up to the decisions of individual Americans and their families.

A long range goal is extend Medicare in stages, first to those between 50-65, then those in their 40s, then those in their 30s, and continuing on, but again with private insurance allowed if preferred.

And in foreign affairs, Mayor Pete would offer a revival of American respect and responsibility, veering away from the disastrous and reckless diplomacy of Donald Trump, and would restore American rationality and respect among our allies, and recognition that he would not be pushed around by authoritarians as has been occurring with Donald Trump.

A young, dynamic President is needed, and Mayor Pete fills the bill, following in the Democratic Party tradition of John F. Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama. A new generation of leadership is required.