US House Of Representatives

The States That Will Decide Senate Control—Moderate Democrats Bill Nelson Of Florida, Claire McCaskill Of Missouri, Heidi Heitkamp Of North Dakota

Ronald 5 Comments

Three “Red” States, those who voted for Donald Trump, have moderate Democratic Senators, who face tough challenges to be reelected.

Those states are Florida and Bill Nelson, Missouri and Claire McCaskill, and North Dakota and Heidi Heitkamp.

Progressives are not necessarily happy with these Senators, as they tend to be far less liberal than most Democrats, but there is no way for the Democrats to succeed and be a majority, if they repudiate those who tend to be more centrist.

So the hope is that Nelson, McCaskill, and Heitkamp can keep their seats, as if they do not, there is no chance of Democrats being a majority in the US Senate, and the potential loss of some of the 49 present Democratic seats would be disheartening.

It is ironic that it seems likely that the Democrats will win Nevada with Jacky Rosen, and Arizona with Kyrsten Sinema, but if they lose any or all three of the presently held Democratic seats, they will end up in negative territory.

Of course, IF the Democrats could produce a “miracle” and win with Beto O’Rourke in Texas over Ted Cruz, and in Tennessee with Phil Bredesen over Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn, along with Nevada and Arizona, the loss of the moderate Democrats would be less significant, as long as at least one of those three seats was retained.

The Potential For More Women Senators And Governors After The 2018 Midterm Elections, Mostly Democrats

Ronald 4 Comments

More women than ever before are running for public office on the state legislative level, for the US House of Representatives, and for the state governorships and the US Senate.

Particularly in the Democratic Party, women will have a much greater role after the midterm elections, no matter who might lose.

2018 is the greatest year of women candidates for public office, surpassing 1992 and 2012, and the difference is that this round is a midterm election, while the other two were years of presidential elections.

So 53 women are running for the Senate and 476 running for the House of Representatives, while in 2012, the numbers were 36 for the Senate and 298 for the House, and in 1992, the numbers were 11 for the Senate, and 106 for the House.

There are presently 23 women Senators, and the numbers, depending on results in the midterm, could increase to 26, or if a number of women Senators lost their seat next week, the number could be as low as 16.

The Democrats have 17 women in the Senate, with the Republicans having six at the present time. Jacky Rosen in Nevada and Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona, along with Republican Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee, could raise the number up to 26, assuming all women running for reelection were to keep their seats.

12 women are running for governor, and there are six women governors at present. Stacey Abrams in Georgia, who is African American; Laura Kelly in Kansas; Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan; Molly Kelly in New Hampshire; Janet Mills in Maine; Christine Hallquist in Vermont; and Michelle Lujan Grisham in New Mexico, all Democrats, seem to have strong possibilities of being elected, joining two other Democratic women governors, and four Republican women governors at present.

The Attack On Birthright Citizenship And The 14th Amendment By Donald Trump, Mike Pence, And Lindsey Graham

Ronald 4 Comments

Donald Trump has opened up a new area of attack on constitutional law, claiming that he can, by executive order, end birthright citizenship for infants born of undocumented immigrants, bypassing the 14th Amendment’s guarantee of citizenship for all born in the United States in 1868, exactly 150 years ago.

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, for once, is correct when he says that is not possible legally, as executive orders cannot end what is in the Constitution or its amendments.

It is also a fact, despite some, like Vice President Mike Pence, and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham who claim otherwise, that legislation by Congress also cannot end what is in the Constitution or the amendments.

The only way to change what is in the Constitution or its 27 amendments is by another constitutional amendment, as occurred when the 18th Amendment banning liquor (Prohibition) was passed in 1919 and fourteen years later, with much discontent, the amendment was repealed by the 21st Amendment, the only way Prohibition would ever have ended.

If it was that easy to change what is in the Constitution or its amendments, then there would be a move to end the Electoral College, but that will never happen legally unless an amendment is passed by two thirds of each of the two houses of Congress, and three fourths of the states’ legislatures (38 out of 50).

The idea that Lindsey Graham is suddenly a great friend of Donald Trump, after the way that Trump trashed his good friend, the late Arizona Senator John McCain, is infuriating. One can be certain that McCain would fight this idea that Trump has suggested that he has the authority, all on his own, to destroy the language of the 14th Amendment. It is certain that McCain would be angry at Graham for his changed behavior, and it makes one wonder what is going on in Graham’s disturbed mind that he does not know the basic reality of constitutional law.

Of course, those on the Right would say the Supreme Court could justify what Trump wishes to do, and in theory, a lawless Court, which has already made decisions clearly and purely political in the last ten years, could by a 5-4 vote, including compromised Justice Brett Kavanaugh, do such. But it is hard to imagine that Chief Justice John Roberts would wish to be part of a majority that would undermine his reputation and that of his Court in the long run of history.

If such a disgrace were to happen, the Supreme Court would lose its credibility for all time, and would be helping Donald Trump to destroy our democracy, and impose an authoritarian dictatorship on our nation.

There is absolutely no moral or ethical way that this could happen, and be allowed to stand!

And also, the thought that an infant would not have the opportunity for a good life in America, simply because his or her parents were not documented at the time of his or her birth, is to deny the whole point of the Statue of Liberty and Ellis Island, and the reality that tens of millions of immigrants, and not all legal, with many “slipping in” through our borders and not realized what they had done, contributed to our nation’s greatness.

Think of the refugees from Cuba and Vietnam who came to a nation welcoming them from their personal tragedies in the past half century, and think of the refugees who came from all over the world over two centuries to a nation that gave them a chance to succeed and prosper, and benefit all of the American people!

Midwest Governorships (Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa) All May Go Democratic In 2018, Affecting Future Reapportionment In States And Congress

Ronald 3 Comments

With six days to go to the Midterm Elections of 2018, it seems more likely than not that the crucial area of the Midwest will see a tidal wave of Democratic Governorships.

Minnesota is already Democratic controlled in the Governorship, and will likely remain so.

The states of Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa all are tending Democratic, with a victory over Scott Walker in Wisconsin the most heralded election of them all, if it occurs.

If all or most of these states go Democratic in the Governorship races, reapportionment of the state legislatures and the US House of Representatives after the 2020 Census will be under control of Democrats, unlike what happened in 2010 after the last census.

Such victories by Democrats could also have an impact on the Presidential Election of 2020, as it would boost the chances of the leading Midwesterner who might seek the White House, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, part of the tradition of Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, Walter Mondale, and Paul Wellstone. Being from a state that borders on Iowa and its first in the nation caucuses in 2020 is an advantage for Klobuchar.

Another possible gainer would be Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, and both Klobuchar and Brown would have an edge on gaining the white working class support in their section that fell short for Hillary Clinton, and helped Donald Trump to win the Electoral College in 2016.

So watching the Midwest this next Tuesday night and Wednesday will be a center of attention, and also include Congressional districts that are likely to flip Democratic in these states.

Trump, Republicans, Out To Destroy ObamaCare, Suddenly Lie And Deceive Gullible Voters, That They Wish To Preserve Preexisting Condition Coverage!

Ronald 2 Comments

Donald Trump and the Republican Party have reached such a low in so many ways in the past two years, but now they are going even lower.

They are clearly lying “through their teeth”, openly on camera, and denying that they have been out to destroy the Affordable Care Act or ObamaCare, from the day that it became law in March 2010.

They have tried in Congress a total of 70 times to repeal the law, including the provision for coverage of preexisting conditions, and they have been willing to take away health care from 30 million Americans.

Their Governors, including Scott Walker of Wisconsin, running for a third term, and Rick Scott, leaving the Florida Governorship after two terms, but trying to win a Senate seat, have openly lied and denied that they have worked to deny their own constituents basic health care, including expansion of Medicaid.

To see them and members of Congress look in the camera and argue with reporters that they are wrong in stating that they opposed coverage for preexisting conditions is mind blowing, as they are lying incessantly, and expecting gullible and ill informed voters to believe them.

Health care has become the number one issue for millions of Americans, and they know that the Republican Party has worked to take away health care, and that should be the decisive issue in pushing the Republicans toward loss of the House of Representatives, and many state governorships.

And since Martha McSally, Congresswoman in Arizona, trying to win the open Senate seat; and Senators Dean Heller of Nevada and Ted Cruz of Texas; and Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, trying to win the open Senate seat, all voted to destroy ObamaCare, it can be hoped that maybe, just maybe, that issue will defeat some or all four of them, and allow the Democrats, hopefully, to win a majority of the US Senate.

Domestic Terrorist Bomb Threats Against News Media, Democratic Presidents And Others Caused By Donald Trump Rhetoric

Ronald 15 Comments

Donald Trump is guilty of promoting domestic terrorism against the News Media, past Democratic Presidents, and others, through his reckless use of incendiary rhetoric, which encourages unstable followers to commit violence.

We are under danger as a nation from a person or persons who wish to commit political assassination.

And last night, Trump continued to attack the news media and his critics, making fun of the need to be careful in his rhetoric, and then unleashing more of his condemnation of his critics. And this morning, Trump is calling the reports of threats as “Fake News”.

All law enforcement agencies are on alert and doing the work needed to uncover who the culprit is in the domestic bomb threats against George Soros, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Barack and Michelle Obama, Joe Biden, John Brennan, Eric Holder, Maxine Waters, Robert DeNiro, and CNN, with fear that more such bomb threats are to be found, and hoping that no one will be a victim of these bomb threats.

When Americans have to face this threat, and realize that our President makes light of it, and that most Republicans and conservative talk radio and Fox News nighttime hosts make it out that the Left is as dangerous as the Right, one perceives that our division is indeed the greatest since the Civil War.

The nightmare we are living through must somehow come out with a calm and a determination that those of us on the Left will not provoke violence, and that somehow, this crisis will pass.

But with the midterm elections now 12 days away, and hints that Trump will claim fraud if the Democrats make major strides toward a majority, at least in the House of Representatives, one has to wonder what the days after November 6 will be like.

Will law enforcement and the intelligence agencies make Donald Trump and his followers accountable and intervene if needed to keep our democracy alive, if Trump decides to assert martial law and suspend the Constitution?

This is a very scary time to live in America, but we cannot allow the destruction of our democracy!

Midterm Election History In First Presidential Midterms Since 1946, And Likelihood Of Results Of Midterm Elections In 2018

Ronald 4 Comments

With the Midterm Elections of 2018 upon us in less than two weeks, it is time to analyze midterm election results in the first such elections after a new President has come to office, starting with Harry Truman in 1946 and all the way through to Barack Obama in 2010.

We are discussing 12 Presidents and how they were factors in the midterm elections which followed their entering the Presidency.

Six of the 12 Presidents entered that first midterm election with their popularity in public opinion polls under 50 percent—with the order of lack of popularity being lowest to highest the following—Truman, Reagan, Lyndon B. Johnson, Obama, Clinton, and Carter. Notice this list is all Democrats except for Reagan.

The other six Presidents were above 50 percent popularity at the time of the first midterm elections–from the highest to the lowest being George W. Bush, Kennedy, Eisenhower, George H. W. Bush, Nixon, Ford. Notice this list is all Republicans except for Kennedy.

The record shows that only George W. Bush and Kennedy saw the best results, with Bush seeing a gain of 8 House seats and 1 Senate seat, in the year after September 11, and Kennedy losing 4 House seats but gaining 2 Senate seats in the weeks after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

And George H. W. Bush, Nixon, and Eisenhower midterms showed respectively 8 House seats and 1 Senate seat lost; 12 House Seats lost and 1 Senate seat gained; and 18 House seats and 1 Senate seat lost.

Only Ford, three months after taking over the Presidency, and with still a high public opinion rating of 54 percent, but the Nixon Watergate Scandal still reverberating with Ford’s pardon of Nixon, do we see a major loss of 48 House seats and 4 Senate seats lost.

Meanwhile, those six Presidents with a lower than 50 percent public opinion poll rating at the first midterm of their Presidency saw a much greater loss, with Carter having the smallest loss, 15 House seats and 3 Senate seats lost with a 49 percent rating.

Reagan, with a 42 percent rating, lowest except for Truman, saw a loss of 26 House seats but one Senate seat gained.

The other four Presidents—Johnson, Clinton, Truman, Obama—suffered far worse losses—with Johnson losing 48 House seats and losing 4 Senate seats, the same as Ford, who had ten points higher public opinion rating of 54 percent to LBJ’s 44 percent.

Clinton, Truman, and Obama, all Democrats,lost massively in seats in both houses of Congress—Clinton losing 54 House seats and losing 8 Senate seats; Truman losing 55 House seats and losing 12 Senate seats; and Obama losing 63 House seats and losing 6 Senate seats.

What all this leads to is the strong belief that Donald Trump, with 47 percent approval rating most recently, will see a major loss of House seats for sure, and the guess at this time, after much reflection, is that it will be between 40-45 seats. In the Senate, with the great Republican advantage in only having 9 seats open for election, and the Senate having a 51-49 Republican margin, the odds of the Democrats holding on to their seats and gaining two or more of the nine contested Republican seats would seem to lead likely to a 50-50 tie, meaning a one seat Democratic gain, but still a Republican controlled Senate at 50-50, whereby Vice President Mike Pence will still organize the Senate for the next two years. This so unless there is a move by Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who voted against Brett Kavanaugh, and has been attacked by her state’s Republican party leadership, to switch to Independent or Democratic support, and giving the Senate to the Democrats.

The Governorships generally follow Congressional results, and are extremely important for reapportionment of state legislative districts and US House districts after the Census 2020 population figures are tabulated, so having more Governors of one party over the other are crucial. At this point, it would seem likely that the Democrats will gain from 16 present Governorships by 10-11, and have 26-27 Chief Executives of states.

So overall, a Democratic gain to a majority of House seats to about 235-240 and 26-27 Governorships, but likely a tied 50-50 Senate, putting the results worse for Trump than for Reagan in the House and Senate, but not as bad as for Ford among Republican Presidents.

The Trump Crowds And Trump Bullyism And Lies: What Do They Tell Their Children After These Rallies?

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The issue of basic morality and ethics, and the power of a crowd, comes into play as one watches Trump crowds at campaign rallies over the past two years since Donald Trump became President.

It is one thing to excuse people who had hope for change who voted for Donald Trump two years ago.

But how these same people can still support Donald Trump when they see his bullyism, his over 5,000 verifiable lies in office, more than 8 per day on the average, and witness the terrible example he presents for our future generations. They will be the recipients of the long term damage he has wrought on the nation, while he is constantly enriching himself, his real aim in being President, not the welfare of the American people.

Do these parents and grandparents encourage their sons to be bullies, their daughters to accept sexual abuse, and all of them to lie openly with no consequences?

What kind of people are these blue collar, working class people, who are so poorly educated that they accept a con man, a used car salesman, as a person to follow?

One sees these people laughing, as Trump insults everyone, and encourages attacks on journalists doing their job, and tells us that the Democrats are evil, rather than opponents.

One sees these people accept without question his statements about Democrats opposing opiod addiction funding, when the Senate voted 98-1 for it, and only a total of 8 members of the House voted no.

These people have no interest in knowledge, facts, truth.

So what is the future of America when children are being brought up by parents who have no morals, ethics, or values?

A Nightmare Thought: What If America Ends Up With A 218-217 GOP House And A 50-50 GOP Senate For The 116th Congress?

Ronald 9 Comments

With the midterm election only three weeks away, all kinds of scenarios are developing in the minds of political junkies, such as this author.

What if the House of Representatives ends up with a 218-217 majority held by the Republicans, meaning the Democrats only gain 22 seats in the lower chamber, rather than the 23 or more needed to control?

And what if miraculously, the Democrats gain one seat in the Senate, such as Arizona or Nevada, but lose two seats, such as North Dakota and Florida, and end up in a 50-50 tie, meaning Vice President Mike Pence organizes a Senate perfectly divided, and keeps the Senate Republican?

The question arises, have these scenarios ever occurred before in Congressional history, and the answer is YES in both houses of Congress, with twice in the House of Representatives.

In 1917-1919, the Republicans had a 215-214 margin, and third parties and Independents having 6 seats.

Also in 1931-1933, the Republicans had a 218-216 margin, and one third party seat.

In the Senate’s history, there have been eight such cases as follows:

In 1881-1883, there were 37 Republicans and 37 Democrats and two Independents.

In 1883-1885, there were 38 Republicans, 36 Democrats, and two Independents.

In 1893-1895, there were 44 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and four Independents.

In 1931-1933, there were 48 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and one Independent.

In 1953-1955, there were 48 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and one Independent.

In 1955-1957, there were 48 Democrats, 47 Republicans, and one Independent.

In 2001-2003, there were four switches of majority–From January 1-20, Democrat; from January 20 to June 6, Republican; from June 6, 2001 to November 12, 2002, Democratic; and then from November 12, 2002 to January 3, 2003 Republican. This was due to the switch of party and Vice President from Al Gore to Dick Cheney; the switch of Jim Jeffords of Vermont from Republican to Democratic; and the election of a new Senator from Missouri of the opposition party taking the oath of office before the new Senate of 2003 was organized.

Finally, in 2007-2009, there were 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and two Independents.

Senators Who Reached Age 90 In Office, Other Possible Additions To The List in Future Years To 2026, And Democratic House Leadership Reaching 80 By 2020

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Strom Thurmond, Democrat and then Republican, South Carolina 100

Theodore F. Green, Democrat, Rhode Island 93

Robert Byrd, Democrat, West Virginia 92

Carl Hayden, Democrat, Arizona 91

Additionally, the potential future shows the following:

Dianne Feinstein, Democrat, California, would reach age 90 in next term ending 2024 with her reaching that age in 2023, with her victory in November for another six year term assured.

Chuck Grassley, Republican, Iowa, would reach age 90 in 2023 if he won another term in 2022.

Richard Shelby, Democrat and then Republican, Alabama, would reach age 90 in 2024, if he won another term in 2022.

James Inhofe, Republican, Oklahoma, would reach age 90 in 2024, if he won another term in 2020.

Pat Roberts, Republican, Kansas, would reach age 90 in 2026, if he won another term in 2020.

The question is whether it is good for the nation to have five Octogenarians in the US Senate in 2019, and this after John McCain died and Orrin Hatch is retiring.

It is, however, a growing trend, and the present Democratic leadership in the House of Representatives (Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and James Clyburn), all will reach 80 soon, with Pelosi reaching 80 in March 2020, Hoyer reaching 80 in June 2019, and Clyburn reaching 80 in July 2020, so all age 80 during the 116th Congress.

The debate will grow over the aging of Congress, and particularly of leadership and influence over the future of American democracy.