New Hampshire

The Growing Surge Of Newt Gingrich, And The Growing Likelihood Of Independent Presidential Candidacies Of Ron Paul And Jon Huntsman!

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Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich looks more than ever the likely Republican nominee for President as a result of recent events and likely scenarios.

He received the endorsement of the Manchester Union Leader in New Hampshire.

He received the backing of two major Iowa newspapers this week.

It is thought likely, with the removal of Herman Cain from the race, that Gingrich will receive most of his support.

It is also thought likely that Cain will endorse Gingrich before the Iowa caucuses.

It is also likely that Donald Trump will endorse Gingrich after the December 27 debate to be moderated by Trump.

And Gingrich is ahead in the Iowa polls, and if he wins that race, we may see some of the other candidates withdraw, and it seems certain that such candidates as Rick Santorum, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann would prefer Gingrich over Mitt Romney as the GOP nominee, and would endorse him.

Only Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman would be unlikely to back Gingrich, and both might be considering third party or independent runs for the White House.

Interestingly, ONLY Paul and Huntsman are refusing to take part in the charade, the circus, the farce known as the Trump debate on December 27. This says a lot about the GOP race, that only these two men can really be seen as principled and consistent in their views, whether one likes them or not! They are not going to spend time flattering the ego of Donald Trump!

A Lincoln-Douglas Style Debate In New Hampshire: Newt Gingrich Vs. Jon Huntsman Later In December!

Ronald 2 Comments

A very interesting two man debate will be occurring later in December in New Hampshire, with the opponents being former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, first in most public opinion polls right now, and former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, running last or close to last in most polls.

It would seem that there would be no purpose to such a debate for Gingrich, who fancies himself as a great debater, a brilliant intellectual, and boasts that the odds are great that he will be the GOP nominee for President.

But Gingrich will have a tough competitor in Jon Huntsman, who is superior in his knowledge on foreign policy over any other GOP candidate, and has a strong record of CONSISTENCY in his views on domestic matters. He is certainly the long term “dark horse” in the GOP race, hoping to emerge in New Hampshire and go on to Florida and beyond.

This author has been saying for a long time that Huntsman is the only truly viable candidate for the Republican Party, so this is his chance to shine and excel, and make Gingrich, the boaster, the braggart, the “windbag”, look bad!

This is of more value than the eight way debates that have been going on, and the whole concept of a Lincoln-Douglas debate is thrilling in so many ways!

And note that Mitt Romney has refused a Gingrich offer for a similar debate! And for sure, Romney would refuse a similar two way debate with Jon Huntsman!

Major Turning Point For Republican Presidential Race: Endorsement Of Newt Gingrich By Powerful New Hampshire Conservative Newspaper

Ronald 2 Comments

It has been assumed all along that Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts Governor, was the front runner, and that he would win the GOP Presidential nomination.

Now it can be said that is much less likely as conservative discontent with Romney and his chameleon status, his constant flip flopping on just about every issue, has led the Manchester Union Leader, the leading newspaper in New Hampshire, to endorse former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has surged to the lead in many public opinion polls after a disastrous start to his campaign five months ago.

Gingrich has many faults and shortcomings that can be utilized against him by President Barack Obama, but he comes across as far more exciting, interesting, and controversial in his actions and utterances than does Romney.

The first question will be whether Gingrich can garner his significant newspaper endorsement with a victory over Romney in the New Hampshire primary, which is practically home territory for Romney, who governed next door, and now has a home in the Granite State.

More than ever, the primary in New Hampshire seems like the turning point it has almost always been, in the sense that since the primary began in that state in 1952, every Presidential winner has won the primary in New Hampshire except Bill Clinton in 1992, George W. Bush in 2000, and Barack Obama in 2008.

It is clear the the Obama team needs to do a lot more preparation for a possible Gingrich candidacy, although at present, they have been assuming a Romney candidacy.

Most observers would think at this time that a Romney candidacy would be more challenging to Obama than a Gingrich candidacy in 2012. But it has been a reality that no one can truly be sure how a Presidential matchup would work out until the actual campaign gets under way in the fall of 2012.

Nate Silver Gives Odds For Republican Presidential Candidates A Year Before The Presidential Election

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Nate Silver of the NEW YORK TIMES on Friday explained, according to his statistical model, the odds of any GOP candidate for President having the opportunity to win the popular vote in the 2012 Presidential Election..

Note he does not say that any of these candidates will win the election, because, of course, the Electoral College will decide who wins the White House, and four times the popular vote loser nationally (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000) has won the election.

According to his model, the best candidate with the most opportunity to win is Jon Huntsman, the former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China, who has so far made no dent in the public opinion polls.

And yet, Silver’s argument is that with a 2.5% growth of the economy in 2012, a fairly tepid growth thought to be the most likely and best scenario, Huntsman has a 71 percent chance of winning the popular vote, as compared to 58 percent for Mitt Romney. No other candidate can win under this model, with Herman Cain having a 41 percent chance, Rick Perry a 30 percent chance, and Michele Bachmann having a 12 percent chance.

IF there is a stalled economy with no growth, Huntsman’s chances rise to 90 percent, Romney to 83 percent, Cain to 70 percent, Perry to 59 percent, and Bachmann to 34 percent.

If GDP grows only 2.3 percent instead of 2.5 percent, Huntsman has a 73 percent chance of winning, Romney 60 percent, Cain 44 percent, Perry 32 percent, and Bachmann 14 percent.

If the economy grows by the unexpected amount of 4 percent GDP growth, then Huntsman has a 55 percent chance, Romney 40 percent, Cain 25 percent, Perry 17 percent, and Bachmann 5 percent.

Notice that Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are not even considered in this model drawn up by Nate Silver.

It ultimately comes down to what the author has said many times; that Jon Huntsman, despite his poor performance in polls so far, is by far the best bet for the Republican Party against Barack Obama, BUT the Tea Party does not care for him; evangelical Christians will not like him for being a Mormon; and unless he can win New Hampshire, he will have no opportunity to move ahead, and right now it seems unlikely.

And since Romney has many of the same problems as Huntsman, as listed above, and has actually less of a chance than Huntsman among key GOP groups, it looks likely that the Republican Party will blow the chance they theoretically have to win the White House!

The Collapse Of The Jon Huntsman Campaign: The End Of Any Chance For Moderation In The GOP!

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Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, arguably the most moderate and qualified candidate in the Republican race for the Presidential nomination, seems ready to implode his campaign.

Consistently low in public opinion polls since he announced his candidacy in June of this year; running out of campaign money, including that of his personal fortune, even before third quarter totals are in; seen as only marginal in his debate performances up to now; and now announcing a boycott of this week’s Nevada debate sponsored by CNN, because of Nevada changing its caucus election date, therefore interfering with New Hampshire’s early primary date, it seems highly unlikely that Huntsman can become even briefly the “flavor of the week”, as Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and now Herman Cain, have been able to accomplish.

Do not be surprised if Jon Huntsman becomes the first of the present eight candidates to withdraw from the race, a sad moment for the party when it does happen, as it will eliminate any chance for a moderate nominee for the Republican Party.

Of course, one might say that Mitt Romney has been a moderate in the past, but it is clear that Romney will be a chameleon, a person ready to move to the right to appeal to the Tea Party Movement if it will help promote his candidacy and prevent a third party challenge.

If one is looking to Mitt Romney to move to the center, don’t hold your breath as he has abandoned every viewpoint he had that once gave him promise as someone to believe in .

In sum, Mitt plus ambition means the ultimate “flip flopper” in in play, and moderation goes out the window, once Jon Huntsman withdraws from the race, likely very soon!

The Washington Post-Bloomberg GOP Presidential Debate: Romney Still Ahead!

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The Washington Post-Bloomberg GOP Presidential debate tonight in New Hampshire was more of the same: Mitt Romney winning the debate!

Romney continued to look competent, confident, relaxed, smiling, and unruffled. He certainly had a good day, with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie endorsing him, and then sitting in the audience at the Dartmouth College debate in New Hampshire.

Herman Cain was given the seat next to Romney, due to his being second in recent polls, but he was constantly under attack for his 9-9-9 plan, which economists have said will not work, and would particularly harm poor people. It seems as if he probably did not win support based on his responses to the attacks, which seemed lame.

Rick Perry did not improve his standing, which has been in decline, and actually looked confused and uncomfortable when the camera happened to focus on him when he was listening to others speak.

Jon Huntsman, sadly, did not seem to improve his image, despite his great credentials, and it now seems unlikely that he will improve in the polls, unless miraculously he can build up in New Hampshire, the state he is counting on to boost his campaign.

MIchele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich did nothing spectacular to improve their chances, although Gingrich did gain applause for some of his rhetorical lines!

All of the candidates avoided specifics on the economy, and made many claims that were exaggerated, already being pointed out just a half hour after the debate, which simply focused on that subject. It was easier for them to condemn others and call for firings and blame, and to attack the Federal Reserve Board and Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The candidates made it clear they did not want to raise taxes one cent, and yet did not want to cut defense, something which is impossible in reality if taxes are not raised.

Did any of the candidates give hope that the economy would indeed be better under them than under President Obama? If anyone seriously thinks so, they are delusional!

It will be interesting to see the polls in the next few days, as to who ends up second behind Romney. Will Cain keep his second position, or who will replace him as the “anti Romney”? That is the question that most comes out of this debate, with another one scheduled next week, sponsored by CNN in Nevada, one of the states with the highest rate of unemployment!

The “Dark Horses” Of The Republican Presidential Race: Ron Paul And Herman Cain

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It is still nearly three months to the first voting in the Iowa Caucuses on January 3, followed by the vote in the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada Caucuses, the South Carolina Primary, and the Florida Primary, all within the month of January!

The Republican Presidential race has gone from one favored candidate to another, including Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, with three other well known candidates floundering–Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich.

Meanwhile, two other candidates–Ron Paul and Herman Cain–ignored by the mainstream media and many political experts–are suddenly surging and drawing attention, and makes one wonder could either of them actually win the GOP Presidential nomination to oppose President Barack Obama in November 2012?

Paul has certainly been gaining more support, and his views on social and foreign policy issues resonate with many more voters than when he ran four years ago.

Herman Cain, who is African American and the CEO of Godfather Pizza, has been an even bigger surprise to many, and seems to arouse support in an emotional manner.

Today, at the Values Voters Summit in Washington, DC, a group of social conservatives, Ron Paul won 37 percent of the straw vote, with Cain second with 23 percent, way ahead of the other candidates.

Can this really happen–either one being the next nominee of the Republican Party? It seems highly unlikely, but after Barack Obama winning the Democratic nomination and the Presidency in 2008, who can be so sure that it could not happen in the Republican Party, and in the right (or wrong) circumstances lead to one of them in the White House in 2012?

The Crazy Presidential Caucus-Primary System Shows Up Again!

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It is amazing to the outside world and to many Americans how this nation goes about picking its presidential candidates of the major political parties,and it cries for reform pronto!

Just as in 2008 with the Democrats, now the Republicans in the state of Florida have decided they want an earlier date for their primary, and in so doing, they lose some convention delegates, and force the four earlier states that traditionally have voted first in the presidential caucuses and primaries to move them earlier to January, rather than February.

So Iowa’s caucuses will occur at the beginning of January, followed by New Hampshire’s primary approximately a week later, and then by South Carolina’s primary and Nevada’s caucuses, finishing up January with Florida voters participating in the GOP primary there on January 31.

This will force all of the candidates to increase their campaign time in these five states, as they lose at least a few weeks by the earlier dating of the beginning of the nomination process.

With many of the primaries and caucuses scheduled as regional events on March 6, it is still likely that by the “Ides of March”, March 15, that one Republican will have enough delegates to be the nominee of the party.

But the idea that rural, unrepresentative states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and to some extent, South Carolina, have such a major influence on the nomination, calls for massive reform of the whole system, but this is brought up every four year cycle, but never leads to change.

Florida, by breaking the rules and scheduling their primary earlier, and with them being the fourth largest state, and soon to be third, still seems ultimately the most important early state.

But there is no need to be envious of those who run, whether Democrat or Republican, as the whole nomination process is a mess and makes the seeking of the White House a true chore and challenge that wears many candidates out, including in support and financing!

The Fox News Channel-Google Republican Debate: More Of The Same!

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The third Republican debate in two weeks in Orlando, Florida, witnessed no surprises, as Rick Perry and Mitt Romney remained the clear front runners, but it seemed to the author that Romney may have made some headway and gained on Perry, as a result of Romney’s strong responses to various Perry challenges, and Perry’s seeming inability to look directly at Romney while speaking!

The race still seems to be primarily between those two men, but again Jon Huntsman gave some strong answers, and his sudden surge in New Hampshire to third place in percentage of poll support behind Romney and Perry makes him someone worth watching. It was clear to the author of this blog that Huntsman is, in many ways, the most interesting candidate in the race, someone to watch!

The only other candidate who came across strongly was Newt Gingrich, who is obviously very smart and knowledgeable. If that were all that could be said about Gingrich, he would be in good stead, but his own shortcomings and ethical and moral lapses weaken him as a candidate, while making one realize that in pure intellect, he is at the top of the list!

Rick Santorum came across as worse just by his stated desire to reverse “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”, adding to his “gay” problem which has dogged him all along, and led to his name becoming a synonym for a sex act, all due to his own fault and total obsession with homosexuality.

Michele Bachmann was more on the offensive against Perry, the person who has most weakened her since he entered the race over a month ago, but did not seem to gain at all in her quest to be taken seriously again. And her suggestion that Americans should not have to pay taxes, keep all their money, was totally ridiculous!

Ron Paul came across as what he is, a libertarian, but despite polls, cannot be seen as having a real shot at the nomination of a party which dislikes much of what he believes in.

Herman Cain gained sympathy over the revelation that he had survived for five years since having stage 4 colon and liver cancer, but quite frankly, made one wonder about the wisdom of a person running for President with such a medical past. The miracle of five years survival is wonderful, but makes one worry whether he would survive long enough to serve a full presidential term.

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, first time in the presidential debate, offered humor with some answers, but his strict libertarianism, competing with Ron Paul, came across as more whacky than even Paul, and is a minor figure in the race, good for libertarians, but enough to convince anyone that libertarianism is not where America should be heading!

So again, in conclusion, Romney gained, Perry may have lost some traction, and Huntsman seemed stronger and someone not to be disregarded.

No one made an impression that would make one want to say goodbye to Barack Obama in the White House!

A Major Challenge And Testing Ground For GOP Presidential Candidates: Five Debates In Six Weeks In September And October!

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The eight person Presidential race for the Republican nomination in 2012 now faces a major challenge and testing ground: Five debates over a six week period in September and October are scheduled, bound to thin out the race in a major way!

Debates scheduled to occur are as follows:

September 7 at the Reagan Library in California
September 12 in Tampa, Florida, site of the national convention next year
September 22 in Orlando, Florida
October 11 in Hanover, New Hampshire
October 18 in Las Vegas, Nevada

For political junkies, there is much to look forward to!