Nevada

The Cinco De Mayo Holiday, And Recognition Of Role Of Mexican Americans In American Politics

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Today is the 150th anniversary of a Mexican uprising against a French army taking over Mexico during the rule of Emperor Napoleon III in France. Although the Mexican people did not overthrow French influence and control until five years later, this is seen as a celebratory Mexican national holiday.

This celebration of Mexico’s history should remind us that Mexican Americans are part of the largest minority group in America, with over ten percent of the nation being from Mexican heritage, and almost two thirds of all Hispanics-Latinos being of Mexican heritage, and all Hispanics and Latinos being 16 percent of the nation, more than the 12.5 percent of the country which is African American.

Mexican Americans who vote have always voted overwhelmingly Democratic, although about 40 percent did vote for George W. Bush when he was Governor of Texas in the 1990s, and in his two terms as President.

The growth in the Mexican population, and the fact that they are very young as a group, makes them prime factors in the future of American politics, as with the growth of Mexican American population, states that have been Republicans and anti immigrant in their politics are starting to move toward a situation where the Republicans will lose those states over time.

With over 60 percent of Mexican Americans already residing in California and Texas, California is already lost to Republicans in the Presidential race, and it is believed that Texas will turn Democratic in the next decade.

The same is likely in Arizona, the ground zero of nativism toward Latinos, and it is already so in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico,

Additionally, the Hispanic and Latino population is affecting the politics of Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, as well as Florida, with much of the transition being because of Mexican Americans.

So while there is a lot of anger about an estimated 7 million illegal immigrants from Mexico, the actual Mexican American population which is legal is growing and coming of age, and will have a dramatic effect on the future of Congress and the Presidency over the coming decade, including having a great influence on the upcoming election in November.

The Seven “Swing States” And Four “Red” States Which Will Decide The Presidential Election Of 2012

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Many ill informed people might think that the Presidential Election of 2012 is nearly even, based on some public opinion polls that show the popular vote close or tied, particularly the case with Fox News Polls, which tend to distort reality, but are believed by those who see that so called “news channel”, and the “poison and hate” it disposes, as being absolute Gospel!

But in reality, the election is NOT close at this point, with the decision based on seven “swing” states, all of which Barack Obama won last time, and all seven in which he has a clear lead at this point.

Of course, no one can live on polls at any moment of time, and it will be essential for Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and others who speak for the Administration to get out there and be actively campaigning and spreading the word over the next six months, but the fact that Mitt Romney has major problems with Independents, women, Hispanics and Latinos, Young people, and Evangelical Christians, make it clear that he has a massive set of challenges to overcome Barack Obama, and this is not the time to put betting money on the former Massachusetts Governor.

The seven states that will be most paid attention to, and visited by both campaigns over the next six months are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

Additionally, four “red” states have a shot at switching to Obama, with those states in order of likelihood to switch including Missouri, Arizona, Montana and Georgia.

So instead of listening to propaganda, realize that it is these seven “swing” states and four “red” states that are the crux of the election!

Arizona Ripe For Pickup By Barack Obama In Presidential Campaign Of 2012

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Arizona, the center of anti immigrant legislation, and arguably the ‘looniest” state in America, at least according to Bill Maher, is ripe for pickup by the Democratic Party and Barack Obama in the Presidential campaign of 2012.

Yes, it is true that the legislature is overwhelmingly Republican, and that both Senators (John McCain and Jon Kyl) are Republicans, and that the majority of the House delegation is Republican, and that Governor Jan Brewer is Republican, but yet with the growing Hispanic and Latino population, now about 30 percent, it looks as if Arizona is, over time, going to go the way of California, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado and vote Democratic.

Even Texas in the future, certainly by 2020, is likely to tip Democratic as long as the GOP continues its nativist mentality toward immigrants.

No one is saying that Obama will win Arizona, but there is a good chance that he could, and even if he does not, Arizona is likely to be a closer race than it was in 2008, when an Arizona Senator named John McCain won his home state, but not by as much as one would have thought (about 8.5 percentage points of the vote and 196,000 popular votes).

Obama Strategies To Win Reelection In 2012: Alternative Routes To Victory

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Barack Obama seems extremely likely to win the entire Northeast from Maine to Maryland and Washington, DC in 2012, with possibly New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as exceptions. So that would be 112 electoral votes, or without Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, 88 electoral votes.

He is expected also to win the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon and Washington as well, which would mean 74 electoral votes.

In the Midwest, Illinois is a certainty, and the upper Midwest seems strongly Democratic too, including Michigan, WIsconsin, and Minnesota, which means these four states are together a total of 56 electoral votes.

So far, that adds up to 218 electoral votes, without New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and with them, it is 242, 28 short of the number needed, 270 electoral votes, to win the Presidency.

So what is needed to guarantee an Obama victory?

1, The state of Florida with 29 electoral votes would put Obama over the top with all of the above states, and add Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, all with growing Hispanic and Latino populations, and supportive of Obama the last time, and you get 26 electoral votes, to replace a possible loss of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

2. Another scenario is to win Ohio and Missouri, the two states most representative of the winning Presidential candidates, with Ohio being with the GOP nominee every time he has won in US History, and Missouri wrong only twice on the Presidential winner since 1900–1956 and 2008–with their combined 28 replacing Florida or Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

3. Another strategy is to try to win in Georgia and Arizona, along with Missouri, three states won by John McCain in 2008, but all susceptible to moving to Obama with growing Hispanic and Latino populations. This way one gains 37 electoral votes, replacing either Florida OR Iowa and the three Southwestern states.

4. Also, if Obama wins Virginia and North Carolina, he wins 28 electoral votes and does not need Florida, OR Ohio and Missouri, OR Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado!

The point is that Obama has many scenarios to win, and it is very hard to imagine that all of the above combinations of states will go to a Republican party as right wing and divided as it now is, demonstrated even more by the debacle over the middle class tax cut continuation, leading to a split between Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

So Obama supporters need to work hard, but the future looks bright!

As Iowa Caucuses Near, Growing Problems For Front Runners Paul, Gingrich, Romney

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As the Iowa Caucuses near, just eight days from now, there are growing problems for the front runners in the polls.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul is having problems explaining away the hateful, prejudiced, racist, anti Semitic, anti gay rants on his newsletters in the 1980s and 1990s, claiming he is not responsible for what was published under his name.

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is having his account of his first divorce challenged, as court records show that he pursued the divorce, rather than his first wife. Also, it has been noted that Gingrich, even in the 1970s and early 1980s, expressed interest in running for President one day, and stated the view that his first wife, considerably older than himself, would be a burden to run with, because of the age difference and his view that she was not attractive enough to be First Lady!

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the acknowledged wealthiest person running for President, has refused to release any financial records, which only a small number of presidential possibilities have failed to do in the past. This is an issue that will not go away, particularly because of the knowledge that when he worked at Bain Capital, his goal was to cut work forces at companies controlled by that corporation, rather than to increase job opportunity, something he claims he would be good at, as compared to Barack Obama.

So more than ever, the Iowa Caucuses seem more muddled, and probably insignificant, since the number of participants are so small, and so one sided in their views, that they are not representative of the nation, or really, even New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada, the other “early states”!

The Knives Come Out At Republican Presidential Debate: All The Better For Barack Obama!

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The Republican Presidential debate last night in Las Vegas, Nevada, sponsored by CNN, saw the knives really come out in the open!

Mitt Romney and Herman Cain were viciously attacked by Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann. The gloves came off, and the gentle tone of earlier debates is obviously over for good!

Romney handled the attacks quite well, but lost his cool and his smile, and was annoyed at the constant interruptions by Perry and Santorum. Herman Cain kept his cool more, but his economic ideas were ridiculed by Perry, Santorum and Bachmann, with Romney a little more diplomatic.

It makes some wonder if Romney is considering Cain as his Vice Presidential running mate. Certainly, there is no chance of any other opponent being considered.

But first things first, as Romney is not well liked by his opponents, just as in 2008, and will face a long torturous road to the nomination, particularly from Rick Perry, who has the funds to run a long race.

All to the better for Barack Obama, who had to be smiling last night!

The Nevada CNN Republican Debate: Romney Widens His Lead

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The Nevada CNN Republican debate tonight was a clear cut victory for Mitt Romney, but also a time of real conflict between Romney and Rick Perry and Romney and Rick Santorum.

Herman Cain was criticized broadly on his 9-9-9 plan and Romney on Romneycare in Massachusetts; but there was great contentiousness and confrontation throughout the debate, particularly between Romney and the two Ricks, who constantly interrupted the former Massachusetts Governor. Romney lectured both of them in a very strong manner, which helped his case, and the audience seemed quite supportive of Romney.

It seems to the author that despite Santorum and Michele Bachmann trying to draw attention to their differences with Romney and Herman Cain and Rick Perry, that neither gained enough to be a major factor in the Presidential nomination battle.

On the other hand, Newt Gingrich probably gained a bit more legitimacy, as did Ron Paul. Both obviously, even if one does not like their views on issues, are extremely intelligent, and are effective in asserting their views.

So Romney gained; Gingrich and Paul benefited; Perry and Cain did not come across well; and Santorum and Bachmann, despite valiant efforts, did not improve their position in the battle for the nomination.

While Perry has lots of money, and Cain has likeability, it would seem as if Gingrich and possibly Paul, could become the real threats to Mitt Romney, if there is any real possibility of denying him the nomination. But betting money would still be on Mitt Romney as the GOP Presidential candidate in 2012!

The Nevada GOP Presidential Debate: In The Ultimate State Of Illegal Immigration, High Umemployment, And High Foreclosures!

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It is extremely ironic that the Republican Presidential debate tonight in Las Vegas, Nevada, sponsored by CNN, is in the ultimate state of illegal immigration, high unemployment, and high foreclosures!

Here we have Herman Cain talking about electrified, barbed wire, 20 foot high fences to keep refugees from entering the country. He jokes about it, and also earlier had talked about having alligators in moats to stop illegal immigration. Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and even Mitt Romney talk tough about creating barriers, and being hardline about undocumented aliens, as if we are about to deport 11 million people who have become part of our society in a positive manner, but yet face discrimination in states such as Arizona and Alabama!

At the same time, the Republicans have no plans on job creation, and instead refuse to support legislation to keep teachers, fire fighters and police officers on the job, undermining the education and safety of American citizens. They refuse to back any programs for infrastructure or technology advancements, and to extend unemployment compensation to the most desperate! What a despicable state of affairs!

Also, Mitt Romney makes clear that there should be no slowing of foreclosures on housing, effectively throwing people out on the streets of America without any shelter, except maybe their cars, if they still own one!

Nevada is, in many ways, GROUND ZERO, on the most crucial issues of the day, and the Republicans will, hopefully, face tough grilling by Anderson Cooper and CNN on their hard hearted, “tough love”, approaches to crucial issues of survival for those less fortunate in our society!

Herman Cain: Reality Check As He Faces Attacks On The Right, The Center, And The Left

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Herman Cain says he is not the “Flavor of the Week” or “Flavor of the Month”, but he most assuredly is such!

After being on Meet the Press on Sunday and speaking in Tennessee, where he is on a book tour, Cain has major problems and is being attack on the Right, the Center, and the Left!

Cain has not raised much money, has no real campaign staff, and spends time promoting his newly published book in a state that does not vote until Super Tuesday on March 6, long after the early caucuses and primaries. This, in itself, is the weirdest way to campaign for President!

But getting beyond that, the Right, the Center and the Left are displaying anger with and at him. Why, specifically?

On the Right, Herman Cain seems unwilling to support a constitutional amendment against gay marriage, which it is clear would never pass in any case. But by leaving it to states, as he advocates, he has made enemies, particularly among social conservatives who like Michele Bachmann or Rick Santorum.

Secondly, Cain has demonstrated that he is a novice on foreign policy, claiming to admire Henry Kissinger and John Bolton, which is, as critics say, like admiring both Antonin Scalia and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a totally preposterous concept. And Cain actually said he saw Clarence Thomas as a model, enough to undermine his legitimacy to be President! It shows he is not ready for “prime time”, and has no clue on international affairs, another thing which upsets conservatives as well as progressives. His ideas on Afghanistan show no depth or knowledge of that war, which has been going on for a decade!

Third, Cain talks about sales taxes on “new goods’, and none on “used goods”! What in the world does that mean, and is it not true that if fewer “new goods” are purchased which would be likely if they are subjected to a sales tax, then the economy will suffer and never recover? And since food and clothing would be taxed, is Cain proposing used clothing only, and how can food be “used”? His 9-9-9 economic plan would hurt the poor and the middle class, and benefit the wealthy, and is an outrageous attack that could be called the true “class warfare”!

And then the Left is furious at Cain’s suggestion that abortion not be allowed for rape or incest, as that is “rare” according to him, and “life of the mother” would be left up to the family. What does all that gobbledygook mean anyway?

And then to suggest an electrified fence along the US-Mexican border is impractical and also horrifying, the concept of inflicting harm on refugees and possibly killing them, and using troops to shoot and kill if necessary to stop refugees! That would be a massive violation of human rights, and would America want to have that image in the world, that it is ready to shoot and kill, or execute by electric shock any refugee, who while doing something technically illegal, is just trying to make a better life in America and escape from poverty?

Herman Cain is a preposterous candidate, and the attacks by his opponents in the Republican Presidential race are likely to escalate in Tuesday’s Presidential debate scheduled in Nevada, and sponsored by CNN. This man, with no political experience at all, is indeed not only the “Flavor of the Week or Month”, but the biggest joke of the loony GOP campaign to find a legitimate candidate for President!

The Collapse Of The Jon Huntsman Campaign: The End Of Any Chance For Moderation In The GOP!

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Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, arguably the most moderate and qualified candidate in the Republican race for the Presidential nomination, seems ready to implode his campaign.

Consistently low in public opinion polls since he announced his candidacy in June of this year; running out of campaign money, including that of his personal fortune, even before third quarter totals are in; seen as only marginal in his debate performances up to now; and now announcing a boycott of this week’s Nevada debate sponsored by CNN, because of Nevada changing its caucus election date, therefore interfering with New Hampshire’s early primary date, it seems highly unlikely that Huntsman can become even briefly the “flavor of the week”, as Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and now Herman Cain, have been able to accomplish.

Do not be surprised if Jon Huntsman becomes the first of the present eight candidates to withdraw from the race, a sad moment for the party when it does happen, as it will eliminate any chance for a moderate nominee for the Republican Party.

Of course, one might say that Mitt Romney has been a moderate in the past, but it is clear that Romney will be a chameleon, a person ready to move to the right to appeal to the Tea Party Movement if it will help promote his candidacy and prevent a third party challenge.

If one is looking to Mitt Romney to move to the center, don’t hold your breath as he has abandoned every viewpoint he had that once gave him promise as someone to believe in .

In sum, Mitt plus ambition means the ultimate “flip flopper” in in play, and moderation goes out the window, once Jon Huntsman withdraws from the race, likely very soon!