Marco Rubio

Six Of Twelve Remaining Republican Presidential Candidates Should “Throw In The Towel” And Withdraw From Race!

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So we are now in 2016, and in four weeks, we have the Iowa Caucuses on February 1, and then on February 9, we have the New Hampshire Primary.

With four weeks to go until the first votes, we have 12 remaining candidates for the White House on the Republican side, but really, it is time for six of them to withdraw before the first vote, as there is zero chance of any of these six ending up as the GOP nominee for President:

Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore

Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania

Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas

Dr. Benjamin Carson

Carly Fiorina

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky

The race comes down to Donald Trump; Senator Ted Cruz of Texas; Senator Marco Rubio of Florida; Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey; Governor John Kasich of Ohio; and former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida.

After Iowa and New Hampshire, it is likely that two of these six will have ended their quest for President, with Christie and Bush the likely dropouts at this point.

This will leave Trump with his demagoguery; Cruz with his extremely far right conservatism; Rubio with the best chance to end up as the nominee ultimately; and Kasich as the “dark horse”, who could end up as the nominee or as the Vice Presidential choice.

Long Term Political Projections For 2016 And Beyond!

Ronald 1 Comment

As 2016 arrives tomorrow, some long term projections for the upcoming year politically.

Next December, we can see how accurate these projections are:

Donald Trump will NOT be the Republican Presidential nominee, and he will lose both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary.  He will be a sore loser there, and will announce a third party movement, but will win NO states in November, but take away votes from the Republican nominee, similar to Ross Perot in 1992.

The Republican nominee for President will be Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who will select Ohio Governor John Kasich as his Vice Presidential running mate.

Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic Presidential nomination, and will select Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown as her running mate for Vice President to blunt the effect of Ohio Governor John Kasich as the Republican Vice Presidential nominee.  And remember Ohio is the crucial state historically in the Electoral College, as NO Republican has won the White House without Ohio!

Hillary Clinton will become the 45th President of the United States , and Sherrod Brown will become the 48th Vice President of the United States, winning by a substantial margin in the Electoral College, keeping the 242 electoral votes of 18 states (Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii) and the District of Columbia, PLUS the following “swing states”—Ohio (18); Virginia (13)–thus insuring an Electoral College majority of 273 when 270 are required;  but also, in addition, the following:  Colorado (9); Iowa (6); Nevada (6); New Mexico (5); New Hampshire (4)–a total of 25 states and 303 electoral votes.

The only loss for the Democrats will be Florida, which will go to Rubio, a home state favorite, and taking away 29 electoral votes, from the 332 of Barack Obama in 2012 to the 303 of Hillary Clinton.  So Hillary Clinton will win 25 states, instead of the 26 that Obama won in 2012. The final electoral vote will be 303-235.

Hillary Clinton will name Vice President Joe Biden her Secretary of State.

Hillary Clinton will gain the opportunity to select FOUR Supreme Court nominees in her four year term, as follows:  Ruth Bader Ginsburg,  Antonin Scalia, Anthony Kennedy, Stephen Breyer–but of course, this cannot be proved to be correct until that next four year term is completed!

The US Senate will go back to the Democrats, gaining the seats up in Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Missouri, going from 44 seats plus two Independents (Maine, Angus King; and Vermont, Bernie Sanders) to 51 plus 2, effectively 53 seats to 47 for the Republicans, from the present 54 seats for the GOP.  Senator Chuck Schumer of New York will be the Senate Majority Leader as a result.  The President Pro Tempore position will go back to Vermont Senator Patrick Leahy, the longest serving Senator with 42 years and another elected term beginning in 2017.

The US House of Representatives will go from 247 Republicans to 188 Democrats, to a gain of 17 seats, and a new total of 205 Democrats and 230 Republicans.  Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin will remain Speaker of the House of Representatives.

So the line of succession will be President Hillary Clinton; Vice President Sherrod Brown; Speaker of the House Paul Ryan; Senate President Pro Tempore Patrick Leahy, followed by the cabinet officers, beginning with Joe Biden.

We shall see in a year how accurate my prognostications are!  Happy New Year 2016!

Crazy, Out Of Control Donald Trump Or Right Wing Extremist Ted Cruz: Is This What The Republican Party Will Offer In 2016?

Ronald 6 Comments

Billionaire Donald Trump has his biggest lead in polls yet with the latest poll showing him with 36 percent, a 20 point lead over Texas Senator Ted Cruz, with both of them being very scary and terrifying, at the thought of either being the Republican Presidential nominee!

Cruz is rapidly rising, despite his extremist right wing views, and the fact that almost no Republican Senator likes or respects him, making it clear that he would have very little support from his own colleagues, were he to be elected President.  He consorts with hate mongers and right wing extremists of all kinds, and makes no apologies for it.  He is a loose cannon, and again, reminds us so much of his look alike, Wisconsin Senator Joseph McCarthy, of the infamous Red Scare of the 195os!

And then there is Donald Trump, who is crazy, out of control, and has attacked, insulted, and vilified just about everyone, and yet keeps public support in the polls!

What is the list of who Donald Trump has attacked, insulted, and vilified?  It includes the following:

Mexicans and Hispanics

African Americans

Muslims

Refugees

Immigrants

Women

Jews

The Disabled

Journalism in general

New York Times

Washington Post

Fellow Republican candidates for the Presidency—Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Scott Walker,George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, John Kasich

Senator John McCain and former Governor Mitt Romney, past Presidential candidates

Former President George W. Bush

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

And the list goes on and on and on, and yet Trump has large audiences hanging on every word and insult, as if the nation has gone totally insane, at least based on his audiences and poll ratings!

Is America about to nominate a “Reality Star” of tremendous egotism and arrogance and narcissism, or a Senator who is disliked by everyone and is much further to the extreme Right than any candidate in the race?  And could either Trump or Cruz actually defeat Hillary Clinton eleven months from now?

If so, America is doomed for the long term future in domestic and foreign policy!

Closing Down Mosques, Requiring Muslim ID Badges, Closing Down Cafes And Diners And Wherever Muslims Meet: Meet American Fascism And The Republican Party Of 2015!

Ronald 30 Comments

The Republican Party of 2015 has gone so far to the Right that now it can be compared to Fascism in many ways!

Donald Trump asserts that all mosques in America should be shut down, which only incites anti Muslim hatred and endangers all Muslims in the United States.

What Trump forgets is the concept of the First Amendment and religious freedom!  Can one imagine if we had a politician say all Catholic Churches, all evangelical Christian churches, all mainline Establishment Protestant churches, or all Jewish synagogues should be shut down?  Would we ever allow or conceive of such action by any level of American government, which would make us no different than what Nazi Germany represented, as they shut down Jewish synagogues, and in fact, torched and desecrated them?  Have we gone mad as a nation, that we even have a Presidential candidate who can utter such bigotry and fascist tendencies, and sit by and ignore it?

Donald Trump also declares that we should require Muslim ID badges, reminding us of the branding of Jews with a yellow star in Nazi Germany, and are Americans ok with that, as if so, why not some day do that to other religious groups or ethnic minorities?  And he wants a database established to track all Muslims in America in their daily existence.

Marco Rubio wants us to close down cafes and diners and wherever Muslims meet, making him an American Fascist as much as Donald Trump!  Are we to arrest and imprison all Muslims in America as we did with Japanese Americans in World War II?

Are we to repeal the Bill of Rights and end freedom of assembly, along with freedom of religion, as well as freedom of speech?  Does anyone really think that shutting down public places where Muslims might congregate will prevent them from meeting underground?  Are we out to promote paranoia among Muslims in America, where the 99 percent who are NOT terrorist oriented will be motivated to defend themselves by joining groups that promote Al Qaeda or ISIL (ISIS)?

Are we going to allow those who advocate hate, such as Pam Geller, Franklin Graham, and others who promote Islamophobia, to undermine our nation and its basic values, and create a situation that will incite violence against anyone seen as Muslim?

Do we think such individuals would not be willing to defend themselves in a nation where there are so many firearms, many in the hands of mentally unstable individuals?  How do we gain a sense of peace and tranquility long term, when we are having demagogues advocating violence, warfare, and a native American Fascism?

All decent people MUST condemn Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, and all other Republicans who advocate similar Fascist ideas, as well as Pam Geller and Franklin Graham and others of their ilk! They undermine any hope of coexistence, as all they do is accomplish what the evil terrorist groups want the most–the dissolution of America and its values!

Paris Terror Attack Makes Clear Growing Threat To President And Presidential Candidates!

Ronald 9 Comments

My new book on Presidential assassinations and threats has pointed out the constant and growing danger of assassination threats to our Presidents, including Barack Obama, and my recent op-ed in THE HILL on October 22 drew attention to the growing threat to Presidential candidates, with Donald Trump and Dr. Benjamin Carson now, after much delay, receiving Secret Service protection.  Hillary Clinton, as former First Lady, automatically receives such protection.

As I have pointed out, all Presidential candidates deserve at least some protection, with those doing better in attracting crowds and gaining in public opinion polls having more protection, which would now include Bernie Sanders, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush at the least.

The idea that the French President, Francois Hollande, was in danger at the soccer stadium at the time of the Paris terror attack last night, and had to be whisked out is alarming, and all Western European leaders, as well as those from Canada, Australia and the US are going to need  heightened protection in this age of terrorism gone overseas from the Middle East to the rest of the civilized world.

The western world is faced with a crisis that Pope Francis has called World War III, but without organized governments engaged in the terrorism, presenting a massive challenge as these terrorists are willing to commit suicide to achieve their goals, unlike the former Soviet Union, which was a constant threat during the Cold War, but also had leadership that wished to win, rather than sacrifice their lives.

So as a result, it was possible over time to overcome the Soviet threat, but in this age of terrorism, it is hard to see a resolution of this crisis no matter what the strategy is that is adopted.

We live in the most crucial time since World War II, and we need statesmanship and courage to meet the challenge!

“Establishment” Republicans Panicking, Moving Toward Draft Of Mitt Romney!

Ronald 4 Comments

“Establishment” Republicans are in full panic, as Donald Trump and Dr. Benjamin Carson remain first and second in all public opinion polls in the first caucus and primary states, and in national polls.

The “Establishment” Republicans see Jeb Bush faltering; John Kasich not “taking off”; Chris Christie faltering; and Marco Rubio doing better, but still not fully trusted by the mainstream Republicans.

But the question is whether taking a “retread”, Mitt Romney, who has run twice already, and been defeated in the past national election, will bring unity and victory.

History would tell us that such a quest by the “Establishment” Republicans will end in failure, even if, somehow, Romney agreed to run, and he does not seem eager to go through another round of a Presidential campaign, three times in a row.

Don’t hold your breath on this one!

 

 

Gender, Racial And Ethnic Diversity Of Republican Presidential Candidates Will Not Affect Voting Patterns In 2016 Presidential Election!

Ronald 11 Comments

The Republican Party, which has done very little to promote gender, racial or ethnic civil rights is now bragging that they are a “diverse’ party with Presidential candidates of gender, racial and ethnic identity.

It is true that Carly Fiorina is female; that Dr. Benjamin Carson is African American; and that Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are Hispanics of Cuban ancestry.  It is also true that in the 2012 Presidential election cycle that Michele Bachmann was female and Herman Cain was African American.

Having said that, none of these candidates in 2012 or 2016 represent the interests of their “groups”!

The vast majority of women would not have backed Michele Bachmann and will not back Carly Fiorina, if somehow, she was to win the Republican Presidential nomination.  She is totally against the kind of issues and legislation that most women want and expect, and most women will back Hillary Clinton if she is the Democratic nominee.

The overwhelming number of African Americans will, most certainly, reject Dr. Benjamin Carson were he to become the GOP Presidential nominee, as he has no concern about the plight of lower middle class and poor people of his race, and has sold out to the “white Establishment.”  And the same applies to Herman Cain in 2012.

And neither Ted Cruz nor Marco Rubio would do well among Latinos, as only three and a half percent of people of Spanish ancestry in America are of Cuban origin, while about 65 percent are Mexican Americans and 18 percent are Puerto Rican Americans. Neither group nor other Hispanics of other national origins would support these two Senators with their harsh, hard line attitudes on immigration reform.

So the GOP can “brag” all they want about their “diverse” pool of candidates, but it is all a facade and an insult, really, to women, African Americans, and people of Hispanic ancestry in America!

Have Democratic Presidents Been Treated “Better” Than Republican Presidents By News Media Since FDR Onward? NO!

Ronald 41 Comments

If you listened to Republican and conservative propagandists, it would seem that the Republican Party  is at a disadvantage when it comes to the “liberal”, “mainstream” news media, in coverage of Presidents and Presidential candidates.

Nothing could be further from the truth, as anyone who studies American history KNOWS that Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have all been subjected to an inordinate amount of attacks and criticism on every issue and personal quirk imaginable, and many have been purely fiction and mythology!

The job of ALL news media is to challenge, expose, and reveal weaknesses and inconsistencies in Presidential candidates, and Hillary Clinton, in particular, has had much more attacks, criticism  and fictional and mythological stories than ANY GOP Presidential candidate.

But the fact that Marco Rubio has issues with handling his finances; that Donald Trump has had three marriages and multiple bankruptcies; that Dr. Benjamin Carson has sponsored phony nutrition supplements that supposedly cure cancer; that Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, and Bobby Jindal support an anti gay church leader who advocates gays be murdered; that Chris Christie has left his state in financial tatters and is still being part of the investigation of the “Bridgegate” Scandal in New Jersey; that Carly Fiorina lies constantly about just everything she talks about; and numerous other issues and controversies that  are real and true, not fabricated, is something that the news media and hosts of political debates should be expected to address, and to confront the candidates on these issues.

Instead, the Republican candidates as a group are “crybabies”, and Ted Cruz has suggested that a political debate be conducted by right wing conservative talk show hosts Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Mark Levin, none of them legitimate journalists, but instead pure hate propagandists who exploit the gullible nature of too many listeners on talk radio and viewers of Fox News Channel.

And yet, one Republican Presidential candidate, Governor John Kasich of Ohio, says the party and candidates need to stop complaining and “sniping”, grow up, and expect the news media to be on the offensive, and to be mature enough to deal with it, and really answer the questions posed to them, just as Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O’Malley have to deal with regularly!  And that makes John Kasich a legitimate and serious Presidential candidate, separating the adults from the chidren!

With Jeb Bush Floundering, Opportunity For John Kasich Potential To Rise Grows Dramatically!

Ronald 15 Comments

It is clear that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is floundering in his Presidential bid, with his expression of exasperation at the toil and turmoil of campaigning, his complaints about being attacked by Donald Trump, and his wish he was able to do other things rather than waste his time, is stunning.

Despite his family name, one can say that Jeb Bush is probably done, unless he makes a major revival in today’s  Republican Presidential debate in Boulder, Colorado, sponsored by CNBC.

This opens up opportunity for John Kasich  to emerge as the “Establishment” candidate, and be able to combat the fact that Donald Trump and Dr. Benjamin Carson are in a massive lead in public opinion polls.

Marco Rubio is already showing signs that he is about to destroy his chances, by his announcement that he plans to vote against the budget deal negotiated by outgoing Speaker of the House John Boehner, designed to keep the economy and budget stable until 2017 and the next President, and give incoming Speaker Paul Ryan a breather as he takes over House leadership. This is simply designed to gain support of the extremist right wing Freedom or Tea Party Caucus in the House, a massive error by Rubio.  It is almost as if Rubio, who has now condemned his job in the Senate, saying he has never liked it, is about to push himself out of politics altogether by his reckless behavior.

But also Rubio complaining about being unhappy as a Senator makes one wonder about his character, as the people of the third largest state, Florida, gave him the gift of serving in the Senate, which many people, including this author and blogger, would “die” for, and yet he is complaining about a “plum” job, one of the best one could attain for.  So this also makes Rubio far from the ideal candidate for President, because it makes one wonder whether he is interested in being President no matter what challenges he will face, and would he be able to handle the frustrations of the job, just by asking Barack Obama!

John Kasich has now expressed total exasperation about Donald Trump wanting to deport 11 million people and build a “Trump Wall”, which he considers preposterous; about Dr. Benjamin Carson, who now says he wants to end Medicare and Medicaid completely, along with his many whacko statements and revelations about his background; about Rubio, complaining about being a Senator; and about Bush, who seems not to want to work for the Presidency and wants the job handed to him on a silver platter, as if he is “entitled” to it!

Kasich is expressing what moderate conservative Republicans and outsiders, such as this blogger, feel, and the belief that John Kasich remains the best choice for the GOP, with his long career in the House of Representatives; his business and media career; and now his popular leadership as Governor of the most crucial state for any Republican Presidential nominee, the state of Ohio.

If the GOP had any sense, and its voters had mainstream ideas, John Kasich would be the nominee, but right now, the odds on that seem long.  The question is whether the party will overcome its extremist right wing Tea Party-Freedom Caucus and come into the light of a mainstream alternative to the Democrats, having lost the popular vote five of the last six times for the White House.  If they do not, the Republican Party long range future is doomed!

The Republican “Establishment”: Can It Overcome Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, And Carly Fiorina?

Ronald 52 Comments

It has been more than 100 days now of the Donald Trump phenomenon, and for the first time, Donald Trump is not first, ending up second behind Dr. Benjamin Carson, in an Iowa public opinion poll.  It seems as if the Trump surge may be starting to fray at the edges.

But the fact that Dr. Benjamin Carson is now ahead of Trump in Iowa, and the fact that Carly Fiorina, while weaker in polls than she was, is also still in the top few in any poll, one has to wonder will the Republican “Establishment”, which has always controlled the party nomination, except for Barry Goldwater a half century ago, be able to recover and choose the nominee of their party?
The fact that Texas Senator Ted Cruz is also doing better in the polls worries the “Establishment”, as Cruz is despised by John McCain, Mitt Romney, and now, even former President George W. Bush, who so stated that “I do not like that guy” at a fundraiser for his brother Jeb Bush, who is floundering badly in the polls, and has cut his campaign staff and spending, signs of a dying campaign.

But with Jeb Bush in trouble, and Chris Christie not improving his situation either, and predicted by many to be on his way out of the race soon, who is there the “Establishment” can have confidence in?   It comes down to a man who despite some stupid statements and low ratings in the polls still seems viable for some reason, and could run a decent campaign against Hillary Clinton, and at least compete in debates and in experience.

That is Ohio Governor John Kasich, with 18 years in the House of Representatives and in his second term as Governor, with a high public opinion rating, and slowly rising in New Hampshire, with little chance in the Iowa caucuses.

This blogger has said before that John Kasich is the best Republican in the race, although he is no J0n Huntsman, who competed in 2012, and is still the best Republican available to be President, although he is not running, and instead is promoting the “No Labels” movement for a bipartisan choice that could unite Democrats, Independents, and Republicans.

Ohio is the crucial state, as anyone who studies Presidential election history is well aware of, and were Kasich to combine with Florida Senator Marco Rubio, a “new generation” and telegenic figure from the other crucial state of Florida, a man who has some connection to the Establishment, but a foot in the camp of the challengers to the Establishment as well, it would be by far the best general election ticket.

Nobody in their right mind can think that Trump, Carson or Fiorina could actually win the election, but a Kasich-Rubio ticket, or even as some suggest, a Rubio-Kasich ticket of two men a generation apart in age as Barack Obama and Joe Biden are, with the “elder statesman” in the supporting role, COULD have a shot at winning over Hillary Clinton, although the odds are clearly, ultimately, against that scenario for the GOP!