Iowa Caucuses

The Iowa Caucuses: Historically Insignificant, And Worth Ignoring!

Ronald Leave a comment

We have seen the state of Iowa getting an inordinate amount of attention in the Presidential Election race of 2016, as we have seen since 1976. But when one looks at history, we should understand that the Iowa Caucuses are a pure waste of time, that  Iowa is not representative of the nation, and the smart candidate would not put so much effort into the Hawkeye state!

The idea of a Presidential caucus is really very anti democratic, and a primary is a much better representation of the true feelings of the population of a state.  Ideally, ALL states should have primaries, not caucuses.

But since Iowa has a Presidential caucus, the facts are that much  of the time, it has had little or no effect on the Presidential elections.

The record shows that four out of ten times, the Republican caucus in Iowa has chosen a candidate who did not go on to be the GOP nominee–George H. W. Bush in 1980, Bob Dole in 1988, Mike Huckabee in 2008, and Rick Santorum in 2012.  Three other times, the incumbent President had no opposition–Ronald Reagan in 1984, George H. W. Bush in 1992, and George W. Bush in 2004.  And in 1976, in a contested caucus, President Gerald Ford edged out over Ronald Reagan.  Only in 1996 and 200 were the candidates who won the nomination (Bob Dole and George W. Bush) able to win the Iowa Caucuses.  And only the second Bush winning Iowa in 2000 led to the Presidency!

The Democrats have had the Iowa Caucuses be more successful, with the nominee of the party being the winner of the Caucuses seven out of ten times, all but 1976, with “Uncommitted” winning; Dick Gephardt in 1988, and Tom Harkin in 1992, but realizing that Gephardt was from neighboring Missouri, and Harkin was an Iowa ‘favorite son”!  Jimmy Carter in 1980, Bill Clinton in 1996, and Barack Obama in 2012 all won second term support, with Walter Mondale, Al Gore, John Kerry and Barack Obama winning contested primaries when they ran in 1984, 2000, 2004 and 2008 respectively.  And only Obama winning Iowa in 2008 led to the Presidency!

The conclusion is that it really does not matter who wins Iowa as only two Presidents winning Iowa have gone on directly to become President, and that New Hampshire’s Primary is much more accurate and representative in the long run of history as to who will be the party nominees!

Marco Rubio Emerges From “Pack” Of Republicans As “Officeholder” And “New Generation” Of Leadership!

Ronald 4 Comments

It is interesting that in the midst of the “non officeholders” —Donald Trump, Carley Fiorina, Dr. Benjamin Carson—together gaining a majority of the support in most public opinion polls for the Republican Presidential nomination, that we are seeing the rise of Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and to a lesser extent Ohio Governor John Kasich, in the polls, while others, including Jeb Bush, are losing support.

Rubio is taking advantage of the situation to point out that he is on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and that he is a “new generation” of leadership, surpassing his own “mentor”, Jeb Bush!

Rubio has many weaknesses, but the fact that he is Hispanic, is from the  leading “swing” state, Florida, and makes a good personal appearance, are all factors in his rise.

The question is whether he can overcome the “non officeholders” and continue to improve enough in debates to end up as the leader in the polls in the next few months before the Iowa Caucuses occur on February 1.

Winners And Losers In First Republican Debate

Ronald 9 Comments

It is clear to this blogger that the winners of the first Republican debate, in Cleveland, Ohio, last night were in order:

John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Dr Benjamin Carson
Rand Paul

It is also clear to this blogger that the losers of the first Republican debate, in Cleveland, Ohio, lat night were in order:

Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
Mike Huckabee

if one includes the separate debate of the seven at the bottom of the polls, the winners in order were:

Carly Fiorina
Rick Perry

The losers were the rest of the group in the following order:

Rick Santorum
Bobby Jindal
Lindsey Graham
Jim Gilmore
George Pataki

Who came out as potentially “Presidential” in order:

John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush

It seems more likely than ever that one of these three will be the Republican Presidential nominee, but there is a long road to six months from now and the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary and beyond, so we shall see!

Veterans And Evangelicals: Two Groups Alienated From Donald Trump!

Ronald 3 Comments

Donald Trump’s recent attack on Arizona Senator John McCain, that his being a prisoner of war in North Vietnam did not make McCain a hero, was a terrible, disgraceful statement by a man who avoided the draft during the Vietnam War, while McCain suffered with torture, and refused to accept early return unless his fellow prisoners were also released.

That is a true mark of a profile in courage, and McCain, rightfully, whatever disagreements there might be with his views, should be honored, as all veterans who were prisoners of war should be, since that is a tremendous sacrifice for their country.

So Trump has, clearly, alienated millions of veterans of all of our wars, and that will help to destroy his candidacy for President.

Then, to top it off, Trump made it clear that he does not ask God for forgiveness of sins, which certainly will alienate millions of evangelical Christians and Catholics, who take their religion seriously, and vote in large numbers in the Iowa Caucuses, and generally have a great influence on the Republican Presidential race every four years, since the Religious Right became prominent in the late 1970s.

So Trump’s big mouth, and inability to filter what he thinks before he speaks, will, thankfully, undermine his candidacy, and, eventually, force him out of the Presidential race.

But of course, Trump could still run a third party or independent campaign, and have no controls on what he says, and in so doing, he would destroy the Republican Party and guarantee a Democratic Party Presidential and Congressional victory in 2016!

The Clown Bus Group Of Republican Presidential Contenders, Part III: The US Senate

Ronald 4 Comments

In two earlier entries, we have discussed five “losers”, who were or are Republican Governors, but are not to be seen seriously as qualified to be President for various reasons; and three non office holders who think their medical and business careers make them Presidential material, but only in their deluded minds.

In Part III today, we will look at four figures who have served in the US Senate, three still there, and one who left nearly a decade ago.

First, we have Texas Senator Ted Cruz, a look alike for Joseph McCarthy, the old Communist witch hunter of the 1950s. Cruz had no problem shutting down the government in 2013, and continues to call for every part of ObamaCare to be repealed, despite the fact that Texas has more people who have no health care, including Medicaid. Cruz is a very evil man; a very nasty man; a very dangerous man to give executive power to; a man who thinks he is extremely brilliant, simply based on his Princeton and Harvard Law School degrees; a Senator disliked by just about all of his Republican colleagues; a man who would divide America and the Republican Party with his destructive Tea Party extremism.

Then we have Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who is the son of former Texas Congressman Ron Paul, the libertarian champion. The two Pauls have a lot of young people who seem to adore them, as they both hate government, and both are isolationists in foreign policy. Rand Paul is an optometrist, who set up his own association, rather than go through the national organization, and it makes one wonder as to his true skill as an eye doctor. He has blundered on so many issues, and does not come across as very bright; has shown lack of concern for the poor in his own state; has made statements against the Civil Rights Act of 1964 as being enforceable; has led filibusters in the Senate that have made one wonder about his ability to get along with others; but at the same time, has shown concern about privacy rights and the issue of minor drug offenses that has imprisoned so many young people, many of them African American. So despite his faults, he has some redeeming values, but he is not highly regarded by the Republican establishment, and to believe a libertarian will be nominated and elected President requires hallucinations by those who imagine such an event happening.

Then we have South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, who is the major “hawk” in the Senate, along with his good friend, Arizona Senator John McCain. There is not a war or country that Graham and McCain do not wish to intervene in, and both are diametrically the opposite of Rand Paul on foreign policy. While Graham has some more humane views on some issues domestically, he has no real support that could win him the nomination for the Presidency, and many hold it against him that when in the House of Representatives, he led the move toward impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998.

And then we have former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who lost his Senate seat in 2006 by a landslide; who won the Iowa Caucuses in 2012; but who is a right wing extremist on social issues, and is committed to disobey a Supreme Court decision on gay marriage, which is pending, if he becomes President. Santorum is infamous for outrageous, narrow minded views, as he is the favorite of the Religious Right, and his social views would take back America to many decades earlier. His chances of being the nominee are the lowest of these four Senators, all of whom are embarrassments to the historical traditions of the party of Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and Dwight D. Eisenhower!

So we have covered now 12 of 16 potential Republican nominees, and further analysis of the four remaining candidates—one Senator, one former Governor, and two sitting Governors—will be forthcoming soon.

The Clown Bus Group Of Republican Presidential Contenders: An Embarrassment To The Republican Party’s History: Part I

Ronald 3 Comments

With Hillary Clinton having begun her active campaign for the Presidency yesterday, it is time to begin a serious examination of the “Clown Bus” group of Republican Presidential contenders, all of which believe they are qualified to be her opponent in the Presidential Election of 2016. The vast majority are totally pitiful!

We have Chris Christie who faces possible indictment at some point on the “Bridgegate Scandal” about the George Washington Bridge in Fort Lee, New Jersey; who has a very low public opinion rating in his state; who has totally messed up the finances of New Jersey; who has a belligerent, bullyish personality; and who would be a health crisis in the making, with his extreme weight matching that of President William Howard Taft, but Christie not having the intelligence and accomplishments of the 27th President.

We have Rick Perry, who is actually under indictment for corruption in Texas, making him the first indicted candidate for President in American history; who was a total disaster in his 2012 Presidential run, not being able to remember which agencies of the federal government he wished to eliminate; who has new glasses in the past year, which make him look intellectual, but still do not make him intellectual in reality; who promoted the idea of Texas secession from the Union a few years ago; and who has prevented more poor people from having health care under Medicaid than any other Republican governor.

We have George Pataki, who is more moderate in his record as New York Governor than any of his opponents, but despite September 11, is hardly remembered, while NYC Mayor Rudy Guiliani is still someone noticed and remembered. Pataki, whose most notable accomplishment was to defeat Mario Cuomo’s fourth term bid for Governor in 1994, has absolutely no chance to be the nominee, and one wonders why he did not try for the Presidency closer to his leaving the Governorship in 2006, such as in 2008 or 2012, rather than waiting till now.

We have Bobby Jindal, who has been a total disaster for Louisiana government; has tied himself to right wing evangelical Christianity in an extreme way; has destroyed the public school system in his state; has an extremely low public opinion rating in his state; and has made many reckless statements that one wonders about his sanity at times, including promoting the study of creationism in science classes. He also comes across as extremely mean spirited and intolerant!

We have Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa Caucuses in 2008 and seemed moderate at the time, but since then, went to Fox News Channel as a talk show host, and it seemed to infect his brain. Huckabee has become a right wing whacko, evoking extremist Christianity; making ridiculous and divisive statements about women, gay rights and marriage; and embracing defense of reality show crazies, along with asserting he would not enforce Supreme Court decisions that he does not agree with, a shocking sense of lawlessness by anyone who would wish to be President!

The author will comment on other contenders in a Part II and Part III over the short haul, and then make clear which candidates have real legitimacy!

Seymour Hersh Unsubstantiated Article Tries To Take Away Obama Accomplishment Of Killing Osama bin Laden In 2011

Ronald 4 Comments

Seymour Hersh, the legendary investigative journalist known for scooping many stories over a long career, has revealed in an article what he says proves that Barack Obama lied about the killing of Osama bin Laden in May 2011.

Hersh, using one unsubstantiated source, claims that the story of how Osama was killed is false, and that Pakistan knew about the operation, and was in on the entire event, in ways that have been earlier denied by the Pentagon and the White House.

It is not an issue of whether Osama was killed, but how the operation came about. If it was true, which it most certainly is not, it would mean a vast number of people, both political and military, were engaged in a coverup, only adding to conspiracy theories that abound all of the time.

But even responsible Republicans in Congress, led by Arizona Senator John McCain, the rival of the President in the 2008 Presidential election, and a major critic since, has deplored the unsubstantiated story, and said that the government explanation is correct, and that Obama deserves full credit for the successful action.

It is amazing how Obama cannot have credit for anything without accusations that have no basis, but it is good that McCain and other responsible Republicans have backed the President.

Of course, that does NOT mean that the Right Wing lunatics will not claim the story to be true, and assuredly, some of the GOP Presidential candidates will claim the Seymour Hersh story is true. This is based on the total lack of credibility and responsibility of these demagogues who will do anything to manipulate the evangelical Right in the Iowa Caucuses that begin the Presidential campaign next January!

The Evangelical Right And The Republican Party Future In 2016

Ronald Leave a comment

The evangelical Right has an important impact in the Republican Party, but it also is a guarantee of failure for the GOP in the Presidential Election of 2016.

The evangelical Right can affect the results in the Iowa Caucuses and the South Carolina Primary, and in much of the South and the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest, but its candidates cannot win the Presidency.

Out of all of the potential and real GOP Presidential candidates, the following would have the ability to appeal to the evangelical Right:

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

Retired Pediatric Surgeon Dr. Benjamin Carson

Texas Senator Ted Cruz

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal

Former Texas Governor Rick Perry

NONE of the above six will win the GOP nomination, and the majority of the nation’s people (including mainline Protestants, Catholics, and Jews) believes in just the opposite of what the Evangelical Right believes:

They support gay rights and gay marriage as acceptable.

They support gun control laws of some kind.

They support abortion rights for women, possibly with restrictions, but the basic right of women to control their own bodies and future.

They are against religious interference in government policy making.

They support immigration reform, although disagreeing on details.

They support Obama Care, possibly with changes and modifications.

They support protection of the environment from the power of powerful energy companies.

They support a higher minimum wage and other labor reforms.

They are against corporate domination of the campaign finance system.

They are concerned about right wing extremism of all kinds.

The average American is much more tolerant and open minded than the evangelical Right, which, at most, might be able to gain backing of about one third of all Americans, and also of actual voters.

So appealing to the evangelical Right is NOT a path to victory for the Presidency, or even the nomination!

Three Republican Presidential Candidates Announcing First Week Of May! Carly Fiorina, Dr. Benjamin Carson, Mike Huckabee! Ho Hum!

Ronald Leave a comment

This coming week, the first full week of May, three Republican Presidential candidates will officially announce they are running, but none of them are going anywhere in reality, as Bernie Sanders, a major underdog to Hillary Clinton in the Presidential nomination battle in the Democratic Party, has a better chance than any of these three “characters”!

First, according to reports, to announce, will be former Hewlett Packard Chief Executive Officer Carly Fiorina, the only woman in the race for the Republicans, who has had zero political and government experience; was fired for undermining HP; lost a Senate race in 2010 against Barbara Boxer in California; and comes across as arrogant, haughty, and whose main purpose is to try to compare herself to Hillary Clinton, which is a pure joke!

Next, according to reports, to announce, is retired pediatric surgeon Dr. Benjamin Carson, the only African American in the race. But he also has zero political and government experience; says many totally whacky statements; and specializes in denial of science and in attacking gays and lesbians with fury. His “holier than thou” approach and total ignorance of just about every important issue makes him a mockery of a candidate!

Finally, according to reports, to announce, is former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, the winner of the Iowa Caucuses in 2008, and seen then as a somewhat “mainstream” candidate, who has become a totally right wing religious lunatic, making the most asinine and intolerant statements imaginable, probably moved in that direction by his hosting an hour on the weekends for Fox News Channel for several years, before leaving recently, as he plans for another run for the Presidency. Huckabee has not been in office since 2006, and is an also ran, and he is “old news”, although he could be a factor in Iowa, along with Carson.

But nobody with any intelligence really thinks that any of these three characters will end up as the Republican Presidential nominee in 2016, or as Vice Presidential nominee as an alternative!

Bernie Sanders Is Running For President! A True Champion Of The Average American, A La FDR and Hubert Humphrey!

Ronald 3 Comments

Vermont Independent Senator Bernie Sanders is running for President as a Democrat, and the nation will benefit from his candidacy in so many ways.

It will make at least one competitor against Hillary Clinton, an essential step, as no one should ever be unchallenged for a Presidential nomination.

It will force Hillary Clinton to move to the populist left, and to take bold stands on many issues, and if she fails to do so, do not think that it is impossible for Sanders to win the nomination.

If Barack Obama could win, a real long shot, it is conceivable, although not likely, that Sanders could go all the way.

The Iowa Caucuses could favor Bernie, as Clinton only ended up third behind Barack and John Edwards in 2008.

The New Hampshire Primary will again be crucial, and Sanders being a New Englander, could have a shot at winning in this neighboring state to Vermont.

Were Hillary to lose both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, she could be in trouble.

The campaign will allow people to see that Sanders, an independent Socialist who caucuses with the Democrats in the Senate, is not a “monster” because he is Socialist; that he is perfectly harmless and simply speaks for people who are not rich, and cares about the middle class and the poor, the environment, and reviving the “American Dream”.

Sanders is the longest serving Independent member of either house of Congress in all of American history—16 years in the House of Representatives, and 10 in the Senate by 2016, making him one of the most experienced people in government ever to run for President.

Sanders will be able to show that Socialism brought us so many of the programs we accept as normal in America–Social Security, Medicare, Unemployment Compensation, Minimum Wages, Maximum Hours, Sick Leave, Vacation Time, Labor Unions, Aid to Farmers, Public Education, Environmental Protection, Consumer Protection, Civil Rights, and so many other great initiatives that have made America a better place. And it has not led to dictatorship, loss of civil liberties, or any other ridiculous fear that the right wing loves to promote.

Bernie Sanders is a very genuine, kind, gentle man, who is gruff in his voice and rhetoric, because of his passion for those who are not connected to the corporate interests; but he will refuse to run a nasty campaign of attacks or allow himself to be corrupted by corporate money.

Sanders is a true man of the people, and he will elevate the discussion and the tone of the upcoming Presidential campaign of 2016!

Sanders would also be the second Jew to have announced for President, after Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut in 2004, although Senator Paul Wellstone of Minnesota was reported to be planning to run the same year had he not been killed in a small plane crash in 2002.

Bernie Sanders is in the tradition of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Hubert H. Humphrey!