Electoral College

The Battle For The Jewish Vote In The Presidential Election Of 2012: The Role Of The Republican Jewish Coalition

Ronald 3 Comments

The Jewish vote may be a small percentage of all votes cast in national elections, but it is well known that the Jewish community votes in higher percentages than any other group in American society, and the concentration of the Jewish population in certain states can have a great impact on the electoral college, as for example, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, all swing or battleground states.

So the battle for the Jewish vote is intense, with the Republican Jewish Coalition trying to increase the percentage of the Jewish population willing to vote Republican, which was unsuccessful in 2008, when 78 percent of the Jewish vote went to Barack Obama.

Latest indications are that 64 percent of the Jewish vote presently is in the Obama camp, down 14 points, but still two thirds of all Jews. So the Republican Jewish Coalition is hard at work trying to convince even more Jews of the following ideas:

1, Obama is not sufficiently pro Israel, and cannot be trusted to support Israel, due to the well known tension that exists at times between the Obama Administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

2. Obama refuses to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, because of concerns about the Middle East balance.

3. Obama has not visited Israel as President in his first term, although he did as a candidate in 2008.

The reality is that the Republican Jewish Coalition has distorted reality dramatically, so how can one answer these three accusations?

1. Obama has backed Israel in the United Nations, has supported lots of extra aid and military support to Israel, has spoken up in defense of Israel in every way possible. And Israeli Defense Minister and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and President Shimon Peres have issued lavish praise on Obama as a great friend of Israel, as good as any other American President from Harry Truman through George W. Bush, and both Israeli leaders went out of their way to issue these statements of support.

2. It is true that no move has been made to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, but NO President from Lyndon B. Johnson through George W. Bush has been willing to do so, because of sensitivity about peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis, and this includes Republican Presidents Richard Nixon,. Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush, a total of FIVE Republican Presidents, as compared to FOUR Democratic Presidents, including Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Obama!

3. It is true that Obama has not visited Israel in his first term, but NO President, Democratic nor Republican, has done so in their first term, and of course, Ford, Carter, and Bush I only served one term or less as President.

So the accusations of the Republican Jewish coalition are distorted, untrue, purely propaganda, and it will not succeed in bringing larger than about a third of the Jewish vote to Mitt Romney!

The Misleading Public Opinion Polls: The Electoral College Will Decide The Election, Not A Public Opinion Poll!

Ronald 5 Comments

The public opinion poll industry is, sadly, misinforming the American people, when they try to tell us that the Presidential Election of 2012 is going to be a tight race, some even say, similar to 2000!

The facts are that Barack Obama has to deal with certain factors, including:

Massive HATRED by many people who simply will not accept that we have an African American President and will do whatever is required to defeat him.

The fact that the Citizens United case allows corporations SuperPACS, and billionaires to spend inordinate amounts of money to attempt to poison the atmosphere, and defeat Obama simply by the power of money.

The fact that the Republican Party is trying to disenfranchise millions in 24 states, by refusing to accept alternative forms of identification, such as college student IDs, but, as in Texas, for example, accepting gun permits as an acceptable ID. So we are having poor people, college students, the elderly, and minorities being told they cannot vote, unless they spend large amounts of money, time and travel to acquire what is required under various discriminatory state laws, that violate the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and are veiled poll taxes, outlawed under the 24th Amendment to the Constitution in 1964!

But Attorney General Eric Holder, despite being cited for contempt of Congress for flimsy reasons, is determined to do what is necessary to stop these violations of the right to vote!

In any case, only by race hatred, corrupt fund raising, and violations of the Constitution, amendments and civil rights laws, can the Republicans win, and that is NOT going to happen!

Remember the following, which this author has emphasized again and again!

The election will be won in the “swing states”, the “battleground states”, but there are enough BLUE states already to give Barack Obama a total of 242 electoral votes, 28 short of what is needed, a total of 270 electoral votes, to win the Presidency on November 6!

As stated many times before, these states are: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Washington State, Oregon, California, and Hawaii–18 states and Washington, DC.

The “Swing States” or “Battleground States” are as follows: New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada–eleven states with a total of 129 electoral votes, and all of these states, except Missouri won by Barack Obama in 2008, with Missouri lost by just a few thousand votes to John McCain.

So IF Barack Obama wins Florida, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Ohio and Virginia, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Virginia and North Carolina, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins North Carolina and Ohio, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Ohio and Missouri, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia, he wins the Presidency!

Obama is likely to win Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada right now, while having more trouble in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and New Hampshire.

But he COULD win them all, adding Missouri to the other states he won last time! And he has a shot at winning Arizona, Montana and Georgia, as well, with the growing Hispanic and Latino vote in those states! So he COULD win a total of 32 states and Washington DC in this upcoming election!

So Obama COULD win MORE electoral votes than last time, which has been the case for EVERY two term President since Woodrow Wilson failed to do that in 1916, after winning his first term a century ago in 1912.!

Just for the record, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush are the Presidents who won a bigger second term electoral vote than their first term!

So, readers, stop obsessing and worrying, if you are a supporter of Barack Obama, and to those who are Mitt Romney supporters, stop being delusional and believing that your candidate will be the 45th President, because the 44th President of the United States is coming back: FOUR MORE YEARS FOR 44!

No Love Affair Between Mitt Romney And Conservative Leaders! Major Obstacle To Reaching The White House!

Ronald Leave a comment

Mitt Romney has a major problem we have long been aware of!

Conservative leadership is NOT in love with the former Massachusetts Governor!

The Wall Street Journal, Fox News Channel, and other conservative media owned by Rupert Murdoch, has major problems with Romney.

So does Bill Kristol of the WEEKLY STANDARD, the major conservative weekly journal of opinion, and the center of neoconservatives, who brought us into the Iraq War under George W. Bush, and still believe in an aggressive, muscular, foreign policy.

Additionally, evangelical Christians have a major problem with Romney being a Mormon, and the Tea Party Movement is not happy about Romney’s promotion of RomneyCare in Massachusetts, and Romney’s fidgeting about the Supreme Court backing of ObamaCare, which is seen as too similar to RomneyCare, although Romney has now repudiated it for the nation!

So Romney already is behind in electoral votes on the Electoral College map of states, and even with loads of money raised by billionaires and political action committees, and the attempt to disfranchise millions of voters in many states, a violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, it will be extremely difficult for him to win the White House!

Barack Obama And Gay Marriage: Politics Or Principle?

Ronald Leave a comment

The American public seems to be very skeptical of the motivations of President Barack Obama, when he declared support of gay marriage a week ago.

A new public opinion poll indicates that 67 percent of those polled think the declaration was based on politics, compared to 24 percent who think it was based on principle.

There is no question that the declaration of support for gay marriage has created a new dynamic, which could affect the fall election for President.

Not only devoutly religious Catholics and evangelical Christians are vehemently against what Obama has declared, but also the African American community is split, as many blacks who are devoutly religious join white religious voters in opposition.

Also, older voters over 50, and many Hispanics and Latinos who are religious, are also not happy over what Obama has declared.

At the same time, younger voters under 35, single women under 50, college educated voters, a majority in the larger urban states (such as California, New York and Illinois), and obviously, gay voters, are supportive.

The danger to Obama is that his opportunity to win the Southern states he won in 2008 (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida) is now more in play, at least in theory. Also believed to be in play are Indiana and Nevada and Colorado, other “swing” states that Obama won in 2008.

At the same time, Ohio and Iowa are thought to be still in Obama’s camp, due to the economic improvement in those states, along with other Midwestern states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. Pennsylvania still seems safe for Obama, while New Hampshire might be in play.

Let us assume all of the above as stated is fact. How would that affect the electoral map?

Obama starts out with what seems to be 227 electoral votes that are certain, including:

Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, California, Hawaii–18 states and DC.

If one adds Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Iowa, it adds 44 electoral votes, making for a total of 271 electoral votes, one more than needed to win the Presidency! That would mean 21 states and DC went for the President.

Now, let’s be frank! Can one really conceive that Obama will lose all of the following: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Indiana, Colorado, Nevada–a total of 87 electoral votes?

And beyond all this, remember the factor of LIKEABILITY! Romney is not well liked, and people do not feel that he is someone to trust to be out there for average Americans, that he does not and cannot understand the daily struggle of a majority of Americans who are not rich, and never will be rich!

Barack Obama has 60 percent of the nation liking him, as compared to Romney’s 31 percent.

Barack Obama is overwhelmingly favored by Hispanics and Latinos, single women, a majority of those under 35, organized labor, environmentalists, the college educated, and African Americans.

And now the Americans Elect group, which hoped to get a centrist, independent candidate on the ballot online, has come to the realization that there is no one strong or well known enough to be considered as its candidate, and the organization has folded.

So Barack Obama still has a massive edge, even with the issue of gay marriage possibly muddying the waters somewhat!

A Doomsday Scenario: A Possible 269-269 Electoral College Tie For The Presidency!

Ronald Leave a comment

All serious judgment about the Presidential Election of 2012 demonstrates that President Barack Obama should have no problem winning the Electoral College, since he won nine “swing states” in 2008, and is expected to win a majority, if not all, of those nine states again.

But a doomsday scenario has emerged, of what COULD happen if everything went awry!

And that doomsday scenario would lead to a 269-269 Electoral College tie, when 270 electoral votes are needed to win the election, no matter what the total popular vote is!

This 269 electoral vote total for Obama assumes he would win one of the five Nebraska electoral votes as he did in 2008,. when he won the Second Congressional District around Omaha. Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allow splitting of electoral votes, although such an idea has been broached before, but not adopted elsewhere.

Without Nebraska’a one electoral vote of five, Obama could lose to Mitt Romney 270-268!

This whole scenario is based on the idea that Obama loses Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and New Hampshire, all of which he won in 2008, while keeping Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.

This whole scenario is a long shot, but with a country so evenly divided in Congress, who can say that it is not a possibility, as terrible as it sounds!

And if a tie developed, the House of Representatives in January would pick the President, with each state having one vote, so which party controlled the new House and had at least 26 state delegations of their party would choose the President, while the Senate would pick the Vice President, with each state having one vote, but a 50-50 tie a potential in the Senate. Imagine if that happened, and if 25 states had a Republican majority in their House delegation, and the other 25 states had a Democratic majority in their House delegation, keeping in mind that seven states have only one House member–Vermont, Delaware, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and Wyoming!

What a mess, but again the likelihood is quite low of such a scenario occurring!

The Democratic Party Edge In The Electoral College Is Reality!

Ronald Leave a comment

In the midst of all of the public opinion polls about popularity of the Presidential candidates, one is tempted to forget that the Electoral College will decide who the next President will be, and the Democrats have a vast advantage since they have a clear edge in most of the larger states with many more electoral votes.

If one candidate wins the top ELEVEN electoral vote states, he wins the election, even if he were to face a massive defeat in popular votes in the other 39 states!

Of course, no one is likely to win all of the top eleven states, but the point is that the Electoral College gives great power to the larger populated states, and all that is required is to win one more popular vote in a state than your opponent to win all of the electoral votes of that state.

So if one looks at the top eleven states, we discover that the Democrats and President Barack Obama have a guaranteed win in California (55), New York (29), Illinois (20), and New Jersey (14) for a total of 118 electoral votes.

Obama also has an edge to win in Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), and North Carolina (15) for a total of 69 electoral votes.

If Obama wins these eight states, he has 187 electoral votes already, not counting other Northeastern, New England, and Pacific Coast states that he is widely expected to win.

The three states that might go Republican are Texas (38), Florida (29), and Georgia (16), but Florida could go Democratic, and even Georgia is considered a long shot for the Democrats.. These three states together have 83 electoral votes. If Obama won Florida, as he did in 2008, and the eight states he is expected to win, which he also won in 2008, he would have 216 electoral votes from just those nine states!

So together, the top eleven states have 270 electoral votes, EXACTLY what is needed to win the White House!

So forget popular vote public opinion polls, as the odds of Mitt Romney winning the election in the Electoral College, let alone the popular vote totals, is not worth betting on, once one realizes the reality of the Electoral College.

Further proof of the difficulty for Republicans to win a vast majority of the Electoral College is the fact of the massive Electoral College wins by Bill Clinton twice (370 and 379) and Barack Obama once (365), while George W. Bush could not hit over 271 and 286 in electoral votes in 2000 and 2004!

The odds are much greater that Barack Obama will surpass his 365 electoral votes of 2008 in 2012, just as Bill Clinton improved his second time around!

The Seven “Swing States” And Four “Red” States Which Will Decide The Presidential Election Of 2012

Ronald 2 Comments

Many ill informed people might think that the Presidential Election of 2012 is nearly even, based on some public opinion polls that show the popular vote close or tied, particularly the case with Fox News Polls, which tend to distort reality, but are believed by those who see that so called “news channel”, and the “poison and hate” it disposes, as being absolute Gospel!

But in reality, the election is NOT close at this point, with the decision based on seven “swing” states, all of which Barack Obama won last time, and all seven in which he has a clear lead at this point.

Of course, no one can live on polls at any moment of time, and it will be essential for Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and others who speak for the Administration to get out there and be actively campaigning and spreading the word over the next six months, but the fact that Mitt Romney has major problems with Independents, women, Hispanics and Latinos, Young people, and Evangelical Christians, make it clear that he has a massive set of challenges to overcome Barack Obama, and this is not the time to put betting money on the former Massachusetts Governor.

The seven states that will be most paid attention to, and visited by both campaigns over the next six months are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

Additionally, four “red” states have a shot at switching to Obama, with those states in order of likelihood to switch including Missouri, Arizona, Montana and Georgia.

So instead of listening to propaganda, realize that it is these seven “swing” states and four “red” states that are the crux of the election!

Latest Estimate On Presidential Election Results: Obama An Easy Winner Of Second Term!

Ronald 3 Comments

We are now a little more than six and a half months until the Presidential Election of 2012.

The latest estimates on the Electoral College, which will decide who takes the Oath of Office as President of the United States on Sunday, January 20, 2013, make it clear that President Obama has a clear edge to be re-elected.

According to the Associated Press, the Democrats have solid leads in 14 states and the District of Columbia, leading in five New England states, four Mid Atlantic states and the District of Columbia, plus Illinois, and the three Pacific Coast states and Hawaii, for a total of 186 electoral votes.

Obama also leads in four “swing states” in the crucial area of the Midwest (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota), along with Pennsylvania, with a total of 56 electoral votes.

So when you add these 18 states and the District of Columbia, it adds up to 242 electoral votes, only 28 short of the number needed to win the election.

So to believe that Obama will not gain 28 electoral votes as a minimum out of a grand total of 296 remaining electoral votes requires true delusion by those who predict a Mitt Romney and Republican victory!

Nine states are said to be “Up For Grabs”, all “swing states”, including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, for a grand total of 105 electoral votes

So if Obama wins Florida, he has won the election. If he wins Virginia and North Carolina, he has won the election. If he wins Ohio and Colorado, he needs only ONE more vote to be elected, which could come about from New Hampshire’s 4, New Mexico’s 5, Nevada’s 6, or Iowa’s 6.

Obama will probably not win all of the “swing states”, but to imagine he will lose all of them, or enough of them to lose the election, is a figment of a person’s imagination!

Were Obama to win all nine of these states making for a total of 27 states plus the District of Columbia, he would have 347 electoral votes.

Three states lean Republican, but could go to Obama theoretically if everything worked out in an ideal fashion–Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri. Indiana went to Obama in 2008, while Missouri went to John McCain by fewer than 5,000 votes. Arizona could go to Obama because of the rapidly rising Hispanic-Latino vote in a state which has promoted discriminatory laws against them. These three states have 32 electoral votes among them. Were everything to break right, it would allow Obama a grand total of 379 electoral votes and 30 states and the District of Columbia.

The other twenty states are solidly Republican, but with the possible exception of Georgia, with its growing number of Hispanics and Latinos Were the unbelievable but possible win by Obama in Georgia, it would mean 16 more electoral votes and a final grand total of 395 electoral votes in 31 states and the District of Columbia!

One might ask why Obama could end up with fewer electoral votes than 2008, if winning all of the states he won then. The answer is that states that are anti Obama have more electoral votes than they did, under reapportionment that goes into effect once a decade. These states include South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona and Utah.

Meanwhile, states which went for Obama in 2008 lost seats–New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Iowa.

Three states that went for Obama in 2008 gained seats–Florida, Nevada and Washington, while two states which went for McCain in 2008 lost seats–Louisiana and Missouri.

So this is the state of affairs regarding the Presidential Election of 2012 with a little over 200 days left in the Presidential campaign!

13 Former Presidents And Public Service After The Presidency

Ronald Leave a comment

With Presidents Day upon us, another interesting point of investigation about the American Presidency is the extent of public service of former Presidents.

The Presidents who remained active public figures after their Presidency, chronologically, were:

President John Quincy Adams (1825-1829), who served as a Congressman from Boston from 1830-1848, dying on the House floor during a debate over expansion of slavery into the territories gained from the Mexican War.

President Martin Van Buren (1837-1841), who after his difficult term in office due to the Panic of 1837, attempted to come back to the Presidency in 1844, failing at that venture, but running as the Presidential candidate of the Free Soil Party in 1848, the forerunner of the Republican Party.

President John Tyler (1841-1845), who renounced his American citizenship, and served for one year in the Confederate Congress before his death in 1862, which was not officially acknowledged by the United States government, due to his treason, as Americans saw it.

President Millard Fillmore (1850-1853), who after completing Zachary Taylor’s unfinished term without much distinction, came back and ran as the Presidential candidate of the American (Know Nothings) Party, an anti immigrant party, in the 1856 Presidential election, winning only Maryland in the Electoral College, and then went back into obscurity.

President Andrew Johnson (1865-1869), who served a few months as US Senator from Tennessee in 1875, serving alongside many of that body who had voted to remove him from office in the Impeachment trial of 1868, but died after those few months in the upper chamber.

President Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909), who remained active, and ran for President on the third party Progressive Party line in 1912 against his own successor, William Howard Taft, and by running, helped to elect Woodrow Wilson as the next President. He also wrote and made speeches incessantly on every public topic imaginable!

President William Howard Taft (1909-1913), who was appointed Chief Justice of the Supreme Court by President Warren G. Harding in 1921, served nine years, and helped to plan the construction of the Supreme Court Building, which opened five years after he left the Court.

President Herbert Hoover (1929-1933), who served on the Hoover Commission on Organization of the Executive Branch of Government under appointment by President Harry Truman after World War II. Hoover also kept active in writing, and speaking up about public affairs.

President Richard Nixon (1969-1974), stayed active, writing about ten books and doing a lot of traveling around the world, and was an informal adviser to every President after him, including Bill Clinton in whose first term he passed away.

President Jimmy Carter (1977-1981) remained extremely active in his post Presidential years, writing over 20 books, forming the Carter Center to promote peace and diplomacy, and the fight against many diseases, and working for Habitat for Humanity in the construction of housing for the poor. He also had innumerable interviews and constantly spoke his mind on all kinds of domestic and foreign policy issues, and that continues today.

President Bill Clinton (1993-2001) followed in the steps of Jimmy Carter, promoting regular activity through his Clinton Global Initiative, and also promoting earthquake relief in Haiti in 2010 in tandem with President George W. Bush (2001-2009). Also, Clinton was involved in promotion of relief for victims of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 with former President George H. W. Bush (1989-1993). He also has been interviewed regularly and published many books and articles.

So these are the contributions, after being President, of 13 Presidents, and it is highly likely that President Barack Obama will continue that tradition, leaving office, whether in 2013 or 2017, as one of the youngest retired Presidents in our history as a nation!

The Ten Most Important Presidential Elections In American History

Ronald 6 Comments

With Presidents Day coming on Monday, this is a good time to reflect on the 56 Presidential elections that this country has had, and to judge which ten are the most significant, path breaking elections.

Of course, there can be debate and disputes as to the judgment of this author and blogger, but here goes, in chronological order.

Presidential Election of 1789–the selection by the Electoral College of our first President, George Washington, the absolutely right choice for the beginning of our nation under the Constitution, as Washington set important precedents for the future, and had no ambition to grab power long term.

Presidential Election Of 1800–the first time we had an opposition party come to power with grace, and without violence, setting a standard for the future, as Thomas Jefferson defeated John Adams, and the dispute between him and Vice President Aaron Burr, who claimed a tie in the Electoral College, was settled peacefully as well, and caused a modifying of the Electoral College process.

The Presidential Election of 1828–the first one decided by popular vote synchronizing with the electoral vote, and giving the country a so called “Common Man” in the Presidency, Andrew Jackson, representing city workers and frontiersmen alike.

Presidential Election of 1860–leading to the election of Abraham Lincoln, who set out to preserve the Union at all costs, and wielded power in a controversial, but thoughtfully considered way, through four years of the Civil War.

Presidential Election Of 1912–the triumph of progressivism, the recognition that government’s role had been changed irrevocably in a country that had been transformed from an agricultural to an industrial nation, had tripled in population since the Civil War, had become a multi ethnic nation, and had recognized the need for the regulation of capitalism in the public good, as well as political reforms and social justice. And it was the most exciting election, as three Presidents, past (Teddy Roosevelt), present (William Howard Taft), and future (Woodrow Wilson) competed against each other.

Presidential Election Of 1932–the triumph of Franklin D. Roosevelt at the worst moments of the Great Depression, offering hope and action (the New Deal) to revive the spirits of the nation, and have the American people believe in the future. Without his victory, there might have been social revolution and bloodshed on a large scale.

Presidential Election of 1960–witnessing the first Catholic President elected (John F. Kennedy) and the promotion of idealism and a new beginning in the advancement of social justice and political reform.

Presidential Election Of 1964–the victory of liberalism with the election of Lyndon B. Johnson, and the defeat of Barry Goldwater and conservatism, therefore insuring the continuation of the New Deal, and the evolution of the Great Society.

Presidential Election Of 1980–seeing the triumph of conservatism under Ronald Reagan, with some modifications of the New Deal and Great Society, and great speeches, but not the conservative “heaven” that many imagine it was, but making Reagan a national icon like Washington, Lincoln and FDR.

Presidential Election Of 2008–witnessing the first African American President (Barack Obama), and his work to provide health care reform, preserve the New Deal and Great Society, and overcome the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

The author welcomes discussion and debate on this post!