Congressional Elections Of 2012

An Embarrassment How Low Congress Is Rated!

Ronald 2 Comments

The United States Congress has become highly unpopular this year, with its inability to get ANYTHING done, including the Debt Ceiling debacle, and now the failure of the Super Committee of Twelve to bring about a budget deal by today.

A poll issued this week demonstrates the embarrassment that the 112th Congress faces, often considered now the worst Congress in American history!

This comes after the 111th Congress was the most productive since the 89th Congress of 1965-1966.

Congress rates at 9 percent popularity, but more than that figure is the reality of what else is unpopular in the poll, and the numbers involved.

The Internal Revenue Service has a popularity rating of 40 percent; the Airline Industry is at 29 percent; Lawyers also at 29 percent; Richard Nixon during Watergate at 24 percent; Banks at 23 percent; the OIl and Gas Industry at 20 percent; British Petroleum during the Oil Spill last year at 16 percent; Paris Hilton at 15 percent; if the United States were to go Communist at 11 percent; Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez at the same 9 percent as Congress; and Fidel Castro at 5 percent!

This is bound to have some effect on the Congressional elections in 2012, and since the House of Representatives majority are Republicans, and the entire chamber faces election, it seems likely that the GOP will lose seats, and probably, control of the majority, while the US Senate only has one third of its seats up in 2012, and so the Democrats might actually keep control of their thin majority in that chamber, and maybe even gain a few seats.

Only 9 Percent In Poll Trust Congress: All Time Low

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The reputation of Congress, always seen in a critical way as an institution, has reached a new low in a New York Times-CBS News Poll, with only NINE percent having trust, compared to 89 percent who don’t.

70 percent think the Republicans favor the rich, and want corporations to pay more taxes, and support a more even distribution of wealth.

The disillusionment seems likely to hurt the Republicans more, and Barack Obama, while only having 46 percent in the polls, has been rising, due to his speaking out and campaigning for his jobs bill, and his foreign policy successes.

So while all incumbents, including the President, have to be concerned about the distrust, in many respects Barack Obama is improving his image, while Congress, and particularly the GOP majority in the House, are seeing their image as the worst ever in polling.

This makes trying to predict what will happen to Congress and the Presidency in the upcoming Election of 2012 even more difficult to gauge.

Republican State Governments Attempting To Create Hurdles For Voting In 2012

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One of the manifestations of the election in 2010 of Republican Governors and state legislatures around the nation is that they have been busy passing restrictions and hurdles on the basic right to vote, in order to discourage or prevent likely Democratic voters from being able to participate in the Presidential and Congressional races of 2012.

More than a dozen states, including Florida, have passed laws requiring voters to show photo identification at the polls, cutting down early voting periods, and putting new restrictions on voter registration drives.

About five million voters could be affected, mostly poor, young, college students, and African American, but also disabled, rural, elderly and homeless, all of whom tend to vote Democratic.

The claims of voter fraud, of people voting who are not who they say they are, has been shown to be almost totally untrue, and to have had no effect on elections, but making it more difficult to vote WILL have the effect of deciding close elections!

The Department of Justice is investigating these laws, in order to determine if they violate the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and it seems likely some will be overturned by such investigation, as well as by some referendums being conducted in this fall’s election.

It is not a good sign when governments try to cut back on the right to vote, particularly when it is promoted by one party against likely voters of the other party!

Barack Obama’s War On Terror: Reason Why, No Matter What The Economy, He Will Win Reelection In 2012!

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Barack Obama decided early on in his administration that he was NOT going to use the term “War On Terror”!

But forget what it is called: Barack Obama has waged a very effective “War On Terror”, has shown he is tough and decisive, has demonstrated aggressiveness in military matters, and has protected the homeland more effectively than George W. Bush and Dick Cheney before him!

His military and intelligence people have hunted down and eliminated dozens, if not more, terrorist leaders of Al Qaeda and the Taliban, and related groups. Of course, the most famous is Osama Bin Laden!

He has utilized drones effectively, and made arrangements for new drone locations to go after terrorists in Somalia and Yemen.

He has given private warnings, now becoming public, to Pakistan and Afghanistan about connections to terrorists.

He has made Iran aware that we will not tolerate their connections with Hamas and Hezbollah in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, and while we are trying to withdraw our involvement with ground troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, we are not abandoning the fight against terrorist elements.

Barack Obama is often called too nice, lacking in aggressiveness in dealing with Republicans, but even that is starting to change as he pursues an economic plan to promote fairness in taxation, and stop victimizing the middle class in favor of the rich!

He cannot quickly create jobs, but he is showing his intent for the long term, and while he is doing this, he has made perfectly clear his aggressiveness and single mindedness to protect us from terrorism and root it out wherever it exists!

This is a long battle that may never fully end, but the waging of the War on Terror worldwide is the ultimate reason why, no matter what the economy, he will win reelection in 2012! The Republican Party will be helpless on this issue, unable to criticize Obama, and they will lose the election and seats in Congress, and possibly control, because of that reality!

The Obama Tax Plan: “Class Warfare”, Or Fairness And Simple Math?

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President Obama has just proposed a deficit reduction plan that would return tax rates for the wealthy back to what they were in the 1990s under Bill Clinton, before George W. Bush gave that elite class a tremendous tax cut, leading to the tremendous deficits we now experience, a major contributing factor to the Great Recession!

Why should the wealthy pay a lower tax rate than the average person? Why should they feel an entitlement to such tax cuts permanently, rather than take on the responsibility to appreciate their success and do their part to contribute to the economic welfare of the nation? Why should they be “privileged characters” who can evade taxes through loopholes and gimmicks?

As Obama said this morning, it is an issue of fairness and simple math!

If anything, the fact that the wealthy have evaded taxes and paid a lower percentage for the past ten years is the true “class warfare”, against the MIDDLE CLASS, which has been decimated by that tax policy!

All polls show the VAST majority of the American people want higher taxes on the wealthy, so Obama is proposing something that is both proper and MORAL at the same time!

Let the Republicans fight it, and Obama will have a great issue against them in the Congressional and Presidential races of 2012. It reminds us of Franklin D. Roosevelt using that issue in the 1930s and winning a landslide second term in 1936!

So let 2012 be like 1936, when unemployment was still very high, but FDR went on to a smashing victory, because the people KNEW he cared about them, and that the Republicans cared only about the wealthy!

What is new about that 75 years after 1936? NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

A Leading Senate Race For 2012: Senator Scott Brown Vs. Elizabeth Warren In Massachusetts!

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It is clear that one of the leading Senate races of 2012, and one of the best hopes to regain a Republican seat, is the potential match up of Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts and Harvard Law School Professor and consumer rights advocate Elizabeth Warren!

Warren helped Barack Obama to create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, but so antagonized Republicans that it became clear that she could not be approved by the Senate to become its head, and the GOP is working very hard to weaken the new agency!

Warren is an inspirational reformer, but it will be hard to win the seat from Brown, who has come across as moderate and mainstream more than any Republican Senator with the exception of the two Maine Republicans, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins! Brown has worked hard to gain support from the normally liberal Democratic constituency of Massachusetts politics.

Warren, being an intellectual, might have trouble convincing blue collar Democrats to vote for her, and additionally, she faces up to six opponents for the Democratic nomination, which is far from guaranteed. The primary takes place a full year from now, and therefore, allows less than two months from winning the primary to the fall election against Scott Brown, who will face no opposition in the Republican Party statewide or nationally, just happy to have another Republican vote for organization of what might be a majority GOP Senate in 2013!

President Vs. Congress: Three Times As Popular!

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Opponents have made a big deal over the fact that President Barack Obama had fallen down to 39 percent in public opinion ratings over the last week, after the stock market gyrations and the Standard and Poor’s downgrading of US debt after the Debt Ceiling Crisis.

But now, Obama has gone back up to 41 percent in new polls, while the Congress, with a Republican House majority, has slipped from 14 percent positive rating to 13 percent, an all time low!

And this comes upon the earlier poll that shows that the Democrats have a seven point edge on the Republicans in a generic matchup for the 2012 Congressional elections.

So the GOP has actually lost public support at a crucial time, and it is involved in a internal struggle between Mainstream Republicans such as Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, and the Tea Party Republicans such as Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann for the soul of the party.

This is only good for President Obama, as columnist Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post points out today in his column!

Democrats Lead By Seven Points In New Poll For Congressional Elections Of 2012!

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A new Gallup poll shows Democrats leading by seven points over Republicans in a generic ballot as to which party they prefer to control Congress in 2013-2014.

This is a wider lead at this point than Republicans had in 2009, which led to a GOP House of Representatives!

The support of the Tea Party is very tepid, and it seems as if the alliance of the Tea Party with the GOP may backfire on them, and lead to the Republicans being pushed out of majority control after only two years, well justified as the Republicans have done nothing positive on the issue of jobs and the economy, and instead have simply stood in the way as obstructionists to President Barack Obama!

Why The Debt Ceiling Legislation Is A Positive Change, Despite Progressive Critics!

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The Debt Ceiling Crisis legislation is facing attacks from the Left and the Right, but when one looks at it objectively, it is a good deal in a broad sense, while certainly not perfect.

What are the advantages of the legislation?

1. It avoids another crisis over the debt ceiling until early 2013, when hopefully, the Democrats might control both houses of Congress and the White House.
2. It fully protects Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid from budget cuts in 2012.
3. It provides real budget cuts in 2012 and 2013 for defense spending, along with equivalent cuts in discretionary domestic spending, which makes it a balanced agreement.
4. It only cuts a little over $20 billion in discretionary domestic spending in 2012, with much of the real budget cuts due in the long run, in 2013 and beyond.
5. The likelihood of a tax increase on the wealthy and corporations is growing, as the President can veto any change before 2013, and if he wins, can continue to prevent the Bush tax cuts from being continued, making it a national campaign issue in 2012, along with protection of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
6. Pell grants for college students will not be affected, which was an important goal for President Obama.

Of course, there are disadvantages including no tax increases on the rich and corporations in the interim; unemployment compensation extensions are denied, highly regrettable; the requirement of a vote on a balanced budget constitutional amendment, although it will not pass; and the formation of a twelve member bipartisan deficit reduction commission, which is highly unlikely to come up with a compromise, but which would then trigger automatic budget cuts of $1.2 to $1.5 trillion, but affecting 2013 and beyond, with defense half of the budget cuts, and none from Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

So while there are problems with the deal, it resolves the issue of the debt ceiling after a long, hard struggle, and hopefully, the Republican Party will be blamed for the crisis, and the fact that the Tea Party people basically held the country hostage for months over this, and it will reverberate against them in November 2012!

The bill has just passed the House of Representatives by a vote of 269-161, with three fourths of the Republicans voting for it, and just half of the Democrats, so what it means is that the Tea Party Movement in the GOP and the progressive left in the Democratic Party united against it, with the moderate center left and right supporting what is to be looked at as the best deal that could be enacted in the midst of this economic crisis. There will be much debate and analysis over time about the history of this crisis, but under the circumstances, there is certainly a sigh of relief that it is over, and there will be no default!

But the battle for the progressive future must now be led by Barack Obama, with no more concessions to the Republicans as we enter the year 2012 and beyond!

Barack Obama And Progressive Disillusionment: What Is The Alternative?

Ronald 1 Comment

With the announcement of a deal on the Debt Ceiling Crisis last night, but still to be voted on today by both houses of Congress without a guarantee of its passage at this moment of writing, the question arises as to what is the future of the progressive movement in America.

Many might say the answer is to give up on Barack Obama and challenge him in the primaries, and or run a candidate on a third party line in November 2012.

If one looks at the history of such efforts, however, it always leads to the worst alternative to progressivism being triumphant!

In November 1967, Senator Eugene McCarthy entered the race for the Presidency against President Lyndon B. Johnson, followed by Senator Robert Kennedy in March 1968, leading to his withdrawal and replacement as the administration candidate by Vice President Hubert Humphrey. The split engendered in the party over the war in Vietnam led to a divided Democratic convention, and the defeat of Humphrey by Richard Nixon, who proceeded to continue the war in Vietnam another four years, something assuredly that would not have happened under a President Humphrey. This tumultuous split in the Democratic Party helped to make for a Republican advantage, and permanently changed the Democratic party, whereby they would only win the Presidency three times out of the next ten national elections.

In late 1979 and early 1980, President Jimmy Carter was challenged in the primaries, for being too moderate and centrist, by both Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts and Governor Jerry Brown of California. The effect of the primary challenge was to weaken Carter for the campaign, with all of the attacks by Kennedy and Brown used by the Republicans against Carter, and Ronald Reagan won the election, setting back the progressive movement dramatically, still having an effect in 2011!

There was similar discontent among some progressive elements with Bill Clinton in his first term, but no revolt or challenge from within the progressive movement, and Bill Clinton, with his faults and shortcomings, was reelected to a second term, the only Democrat to do so since Franklin D. Roosevelt.

So while there can be discontent and disappointment with Barack Obama, that he has not achieved everything that progressives desire, try to imagine President John McCain instead, and try to imagine whether any of the many accomplishments of the Obama Presidency would have been achieved, and the answer is clearly negative.

So when Ralph Nader, who helped to defeat Al Gore by running in Florida in the 2000 election, talks about challenging Barack Obama, the answer is to steer clear of him unless one wants another 2000 election, unless one wants a Republican likely to be further to the right than George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan were in 2000 or 1980.

And when one tries to consider what progressive spokesman could really win the nation in 2012, one comes up empty handed. Certainly, Ralph Nader has no credibility and is seen as fringe in nature. Dennis Kucinich has appeal for some of what he advocates, but has run twice in the Presidential primaries and comes across as loony to many with his personal quirks. Bernie Sanders is appealing to many, but is actually a Socialist, not a Democrat, and could not possibly have broad based appeal. Russ Feingold is probably the most attractive alternative, and has formed Progressives United, an advocacy organization in Madison, WIsconsin, but he is weakened by the loss of his Senate seat in 2010, and it would be better if he ran for Senator Herb Kohl’s Senate seat with Kohl retiring, with a good chance to come back to the Senate in 2012 and promote the progressive cause from that location, in a more constructive manner.

Who else is possible, with any credibility? Realistically, NO ONE, and therefore, there is no alternative but to support Barack Obama, have him and his party fight the good fight over the next 15 months, and work to create a solid majority for progressive causes in the House of Representatives and the Senate!

If that quest is successful, and with a second term and no reelection to face, Barack Obama would likely turn further to the left, stick his neck out, and become more progressive than he has been able to do, logistically, in this first term. With all the criticism that has been and will be made of Barack Obama, he still has the most progressive term in office since Lyndon B. Johnson in the 1960s with his Great Society!