Author: Ronald

The Potential Of Justin Amash To “Mess Up” The 2020 Presidential Election Is High

Ronald 33 Comments

Michigan Congressman Justin Amash, elected as a Tea Party Congressman in the Republican “wave” of 2010, went on to a ten year career, including heading the “Liberty Caucus” and being a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, an extreme right wing group that warred against Speaker John Boehner and his successor, Paul Ryan.

Amash went on to vote for the impeachment of Donald Trump in 2019, and to leave the Republican Party, and now he is an announced candidate for the Libertarian Party Presidential nomination.

Considering that Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee received about 3.3 percent of the popular vote and 4.5 million votes in 2016, it is a concern whether Amash could perform at the same level in 2020, and whether it would harm Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the election.

Amash is complicated, as he supports the following that could bring over disaffected Democrats who wanted Bernie Sanders:

He voted against religious institutions being eligible for FEMA grants.

He supported gay marriage being left alone after the Supreme Court ruled in favor in 2015.

He has stated his opposition to political gerrymandering.

He voted against the reauthorization of the Patriot Act in 2011.

He voted against the Trump executive order banning migrating of people from seven majority Muslim nations.

He has stated his support of transgender American rights.

He has opposed building a Mexico Wall.

He has refused to support Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) without agreement that there have been abuses that need to be addressed, while believing in the basic mission of ICE.

He has opposed US support of Saudi Arabia in its war against Yemen.

He has voted against any war against Iran by executive decision, only if Congress agreed by majority vote of both houses of Congress.

And of course, he has been a consistent critic of Donald Trump from the beginning.

So, while Amash is a big Trump critic, he could get disaffected Democrats who are not thrilled with Joe Biden, to vote for him, and that could be a decisive factor in his home state of Michigan and other “swing’ states!

The House Of Representatives Likely To Be More “Blue” In 117th Congress

Ronald 3 Comments

Six months out, it seems highly likely that the House of Representatives, which turned Democratic in the 2018 midterm elections, will be more heavily “Blue”.

The present House balance is 233 Democrats to 196 Republicans, and Independent Justin Amash of Michigan, who left the Republican Party in 2019, and voted for the impeachment of Donald Trump.

There are, presently, six vacant House seats, but four of them being filled soon, and the likelihood is that the two Democratic seats and two Republican seats will remain the same. Two other Republican seats have a vacancy that will not be filled until the November 2020 election.

But if one counts all six vacant House seats, the real balance is 235 Democrats and 200 Republicans, as Justin Amash is leaving Congress as the only Libertarian member. So effectively, the balance is what it was after Election Day in November 2018. Republicans would need a net gain of 18 seats to come back to the majority, and no polls show that happening.

More women and minorities were elected as Democrats than ever before in the House of Representatives, while the Republicans remain mostly white men.

There were big gains, a total of 41 new members of the Democratic majority, and California, the largest delegation, dropped to only 7 Republicans.

The Democrats had their biggest victory since 1974, and won the popular vote by 8.6 percent, an all time high for a party that had been in the minority previously. More than half the population voted, the highest percentage in a midterm election since 1914.

Besides California’s loss of 7 Republican seat, the following states lost multiple GOP seats:

Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Texas–2 seats each

New York, Virginia–3 seats each

New Jersey, Pennsylvania–4 seats each

21 states, altogether, lost 42 Republican seats, and it now seems likely that Democrats will gain more seats in Florida, Illinois, Texas, New York, Virginia, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, with the estimate being at least 10 more seats, leading to a possible majority as high as 245-190, after a few likely Republican gains.

Six Months Out Projection On US Senate: A Democratic Majority

Ronald 3 Comments

Having projected the Presidential Election of 2020 yesterday, today I will project, six months out, subject to change as we get closer to the election, the likely Senate balance in 2021-2022.

It seems very likely at this point that the Democrats will win the majority of the US Senate, and kick out Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader.

And I think the odds of Kentucky defeating McConnell for reelection are growing.

So let us look at state by state for the Senate in the 2020 election cycle.

There will be 12 Democratic held seats and 23 Republican held seats up for election.

This insures that the Democrats will gain seats, and it would seem highly likely that they will gain at least 3 seats, enough for control if Joe Biden wins the Presidency, as his female Vice President would be able to organize the Senate, and break any potential tie votes.

Much more likely is that the Democrats might gain up to 7 additional seats, by winning 8 races, but likely losing Doug Jones in Alabama, but that loss is certainly not an automatic result so the total number of Democrats could go to 53-55 as a maximum.

Other than Doug Jones, who has proved to be an inspiration that Alabama has potential for growth, the other 11 Democratic seats seem safe.

Tom Udall is leaving his New Mexico Senate seat, but it seems safely Democratic, as does Ed Markey’s seat in Massachusetts, although he might lose the Senate primary to Joe Kennedy III, but the seat will stay Democratic.

Turning to the Republicans, the following 11 seats seem safe:

Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming, although Lamar Alexander in Tennessee and Mike Enzi in Wyoming are leaving office, but still both of those states seem safe for Republicans.

So that leave 11 seats safe, but the other 12 unpredictable.

Most likely to go Democratic are in likeliness to occur:

Martha McSally seat in Arizona

Cory Gardner seat in Colorado

Kelly Loeffler seat in Georgia

Susan Collins seat in Maine

Steve Daines seat in Montana

Thom Tillis seat in North Carolina

Less likely to switch parties are in likelihood of occurring:

Joni Ernst seat in Iowa

Pat Roberts (retiring) seat in Kansas

David Perdue seat in Georgia

John Cornyn seat in Texas

Lindsey Graham seat in South Carolina

Mitch McConnell seat in Kentucky

My judgment is that one of those last six seats, likely Iowa, will also go Democratic, which means a gain of 7 seats to 54 or 53 if Doug Jones loses his seat.

But also, Kansas and Georgia (David Perdue) could surprise, and we can hope for a “miracle” that the two most despicable of a horrible group of Republicans, Graham or McConnell, might actually be defeated, along with Cornyn.

So in the best of all worlds, which would be a dream, imagine if the Republicans lost all 12 seats in contention, and did not defeat Doug Jones in Alabama, and we would have the grand total of 59 seats!

But reality sets in, and expect 53-55 seats for the Democrats, subject to changing dynamics, so we will look at this again in October.

Six Months To The Presidential Election Of 2020: A First Assessment

Ronald 33 Comments

With six months and three days until the Presidential Election of 2020, it is time to make a first assessment of the upcoming election.

This author has just published an article on History News Network under my blog “Ronald L Feinman” stating that this upcoming election is the most important since 1940, and one of the five most significant elections in American history, along with 1860, 1864, 1932, and 1940.

Donald Trump is reported going totally off the rails on this, the 75th anniversary of the suicide of Adolf Hitler, and it gets one to think about what may yet happen, as Trump is falling behind Joe Biden in every imaginable poll nationally, and in the “swing” states, including the crucial state of Florida with its 29 electoral votes.

If Trump loses Florida, where many senior citizens retire and are dying in the midst of this CoronaVirus Pandemic, there is no practical way for him to win reelection.

With the pandemic which he is refusing to deal with rationally, only thinking about his election, and willing to endanger any crowd that might gather in Arizona or Ohio in coming weeks, and also wanting children back in school even if it undermines and threatens the lives of their parents and grandparents, Trump is clearly on the road to a massive defeat in November!

So, subject to change, here is my assessment of the upcoming election:

Joe Biden will win the 20 states that Hillary Clinton won:

All 6 New England states and add the second district of Maine, which went to Trump in 2016–33 electoral votes

Middle Atlantic States of New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia, plus Virginia–72 electoral votes

Midwest States of Illinois and Minnesota–30 electoral votes

Mountain States of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada–20 electoral votes

Pacific Coast States of California, Oregon, Washington State, and Hawaii–78 electoral votes

So the “base”, adding the second district of Maine to the total, is 233 electoral votes of 270 needed.

Adding to that are the crucial states that Hillary Clinton lost in the Midwest—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (really considered more Northeast but also considered in western section as Midwest)—46

That brings the electoral vote total to 279, enough to win the Presidency for Joe Biden.

However, the trend is strongly in favor of other states turning “Blue”, with the Second Great Depression upon us, along with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, and the reality that Trump policies have alienated many groups:

Senior Citizens

Suburban Women

College Educated

Lower and Middle Income Voters

Racial Minorities (African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans)

Jews, Social Justice Catholics, Mainline Protestants

Young People Under 35

Independents

Moderate Republicans

Conservative Intellectuals

Of course, one is not saying that all of these groups will vote “Blue”, but it seems highly likely enough will vote that way and cause a smashing defeat for Donald Trump!

So what other states seem likely to go Democratic, in some cases, by small margins?

In order as follows:

Arizona–11 electoral votes

North Carolina–15 electoral votes

Florida–29 electoral votes

Nebraska–2nd Congressional District–1 electoral vote

Ohio–18 electoral votes

Georgia–16 electoral votes

Iowa–6 electoral votes

Montana–3 electoral votes

Kansas–6 electoral votes

Texas–38 electoral votes

So my estimate at this time, six months before the election, is a maximum of 32 states and DC for Biden and 18 for Trump, and 422 electoral votes to 116 for Trump.

The 116 electoral votes for Trump in 18 states would be:

West Virginia 5

Kentucky 8

South Carolina 9

Alabama 9

Mississippi 6

Louisiana 8

Arkansas 6

Tennessee 11

Missouri 10

Indiana 11

North Dakota 3

South Dakota 3

Nebraska 4 (not including 2nd District)

Oklahoma 7

Utah 6

Wyoming 3

Idaho 4

Alaska 3

But actually, Missouri (10) and Indiana (11) could, by earlier history, surprise, and also vote against Trump and support Biden by small margins, meaning there could be 34 states and a grand total of 443 to 95 in the Electoral College for the Democrats!

Remember that Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and Missouri was always with the winner since 1900, except in 1956, 2008 (both by small margins of about 4,000 votes) and 2012 when the margin was larger for the defeated candidate, Mitt Romney!

So the exact parameters of the Donald Trump defeat are not final, but this would seem to be the maximum, as another nearly 4 million Americans today filed for unemployment, a total of about 30 million, one out of five workers in the nation, approximately, which would mean a 20 percent unemployment rate, and growing.

If it goes over 25 percent in coming weeks, it will be worse than even the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the American people soundly defeated Herbert Hoover in 1932, and elected Franklin D. Roosevelt!

And realize that the average family size can be considered probably a family of four although there are many households of fewer than four, but if one considers that as a statistic, that means one out of three people directly are affected by unemployment, an astounding 33-35 percent rate, unimaginable and horrific!

The next President will have a challenge on the level of FDR and Abraham Lincoln!


America Has Lost More People In Two Months Of The CoronaVirus Pandemic Than In 12 Years In Vietnam!

Ronald 9 Comments

The United States had its first loss of life to the CoronaVirus Pandemic on February 29.

Two months later, we have lost 60,000 Americans, more than the Vietnam War loss of over 58,000 from 1963-1975.

No one could possibly have imagined such a horrifying development, something Donald Trump predicted a couple of weeks ago would be the most losses.

But clearly, we are far from the end of this crisis, with predictions that there will be a much bigger wave this fall and winter, coinciding with the seasonal Flu, and also the danger of hurricane season coming upon us soon.

This is one of the darkest moments in American history, a literal nightmare for all of us, as we will likely learn of people we know, and possibly relatives and friends, losing their lives to this pandemic!

Crucial Vice Presidential Choices In American History, Good And Bad

Ronald 3 Comments

As Joe Biden decides soon who will be his Vice Presidential running mate, this is a good time to look at crucial Vice Presidential choices in American history, both good and bad.

There is a myth that the Vice Presidential choice does not matter, but it most certainly does.

Abraham Lincoln, in order to help his reelection chances in 1864, dropped Vice President Hannibal Hamlin in favor of Andrew Johnson. Johnson would go on to be the worst blunder of Lincoln, as he succeeded Lincoln after only six weeks in office, divided the country, and was impeached.

William McKinley lost his Vice President, Garret Hobart, in 1899, due to heart disease. If Hobart had not died, he would have become President in 1901, but instead, it was Theodore Roosevelt, who transformed the office of the Presidency.

Franklin D. Roosevelt dropped third term Vice President Henry A. Wallace in 1944 in favor of Harry Truman, who succeeded him after 82 days as Vice President, and most scholars believe Wallace would have been a terrible choice to be President.

John F. Kennedy could not have won in 1960 without Lyndon B. Johnson, who would carry along to success the domestic goals of JFK, and expand beyond it in the “Great Society” programs in the mid 1960s.

Jimmy Carter had a perfect match for Vice President in Walter Mondale, who became the most active and engaged Vice President, practically a co-President.

Ronald Reagan had no foreign policy experience, and George H. W. Bush was a great asset to him in the 1980s.

Bush made a terrible choice in Dan Quayle as his Vice President, and made everyone pray for his health when he had an “atrial fibrillation” in office.

Bill Clinton was fortunate to have Al Gore as his VP, as Gore helped to direct Clinton on the environment, an issue Clinton had performed poorly as Arkansas Governor.

George W. Bush had a smart, intelligent, capable Vice President in Dick Cheney, except for the reality that he “ran the show” in the first term, and pushed us into unwise wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and managed to make millions of personal wealth from Halliburton.

He is often called the most powerful Vice President in American history, in the sense of his impact and powerful influence in policy under Bush, although somewhat less so in the second term, as Bush separated himself to some extent from Cheney.

The Barack Obama-Joe Biden “Bromance” was extremely close and influential, only matched by the Carter-Mondale partnership.

The relationship between Donald Trump and Mike Pence has been one of total sycophancy by Pence, as he hopes to become President at some point in the future. The evangelical Christian Right has been a major factor in the total degradation, and lack of ethics and morals of the Trump Presidency.

So for good or for bad, the Vice Presidency has made a difference!

Strategies For Joe Biden’s Vice Presidential Selection

Ronald 1 Comment

Former Vice President Joe Biden is forming a committee to consider who should be his running mate for Vice President.

The choice of a future Vice President and possible President is crucial, so many of the proposed choices should not be seriously considered.

Any Vice President has to have the experience, the knowledge, the intelligence to take over on a moment’s notice.

That person needs to be much younger than Biden, who will reach 78 two weeks after the Presidential Election of 2020.

Such a person has to have the success of being an officeholder with state wide success.

Such a person should likely not be a Governor, as such a person should be kept busy dealing with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, not running for Vice President.

Such a person should not come from a state where if such person became Vice President, that state’s Senate seat might switch to the Republicans.

So already, just from what this author and blogger has stated, it is his belief that Elizabeth Warren, Stacey Abrams, Gretchen Whitmer, or Michelle Lujan Grisham, and any member of the House of Representatives should automatically be eliminated, such as Val Demings of Florida.

So who is on the list, and clearly stands out, and has already run for President, giving much needed extra national exposure?

Two US Senators are the finalists, with the reality that the Democratic Presidential nominee has always selected a US Senator as a running mate since 1944, except twice.

In 1972, it was George McGovern who chose Senator Thomas Eagleton, but he was forced out due to fears because he had undergone psychiatric treatment, and was replaced by Kennedy brother in law Sergeant Shriver.

And in 1984 ,Walter Mondale blundered in naming Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro as his Vice Presidential choice.

It should also be pointed out that those two times were the most disastrous for the Democrats, running against second term candidates Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, and in both elections, McGovern and Mondale only won one state and Washington, DC in the Electoral College.

Those two US Senators are Kamala Harris of California and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, with California certain to have a Democratic replacement in the Senate.

But Minnesota is much more uncertain, although right now that state has a Democratic Governor, Tim Walz.

But in a followup election after a temporary appointment, Minnesota could not be guaranteed to elect a permanent Democratic replacement in the US Senate.

So while either Harris or Klobuchar (age 56 or 60) are the two best choices, Harris has a slight edge in the sense her Senate seat is safely Democratic, but either woman would make an excellent VP, and a potential President of the United States!

Donald Trump Has Finally Gone Too Far: A Sense That Trump Has Endangered Public Health And His Own Presidency’s Ability To Survive

Ronald 55 Comments

Through all of the outrages and obscene words and actions of Donald Trump, even through his impeachment trial, the sense is there that Donald Trump has now endangered public health and his own disgraceful Presidency’s ability to survive.

His acting like a Medical Doctor, and giving his stupid, cult like followers advice on medications and now on ingesting or injecting disinfectant into their bodies has led to some hospitalizations and likely deaths. Others are not understanding that the President is totally unhinged and dangerous, and that they should ignore his ranting and raving in his daily, disgraceful displays of insanity!

Trump is now being given advice to stop participating in the daily updates, and on Friday, he took no questions and ended the press conference within a few minutes.

If he has not lost all credibility now, and if he continues to have a “Jim Jones” type effect on his lunatic followers, then those morons will deserve to die, and at least clean our nation of people who support his racism, nativism, and misogyny. The danger he presents to our domestic progress represented by the New Deal of FDR and the Great Society of LBJ, and to a stable foreign policy in support of our allies in NATO and in East Asia is massive.

And now, he threatens to destroy the Postal Service; stop all immigration when it is an essential part of the American success story and necessary for economic growth; eliminate all environmental laws on the books; and to bomb Iran. The latter is a ploy to gain an image as a wartime President, making it possible for him to be reelected, but he must be prevented from any such action.

The pressure to resign, and let Vice President Mike Pence finish the term, will start to grow to prevent a total destruction of the Republican Party, and the sense that he might finally have reached the point, where the nation’s safety and security is at stake.

Clearly, anyone who still will take the view that Trump should be reelected, as Joe Biden and his potential female running mate have this or that fault or shortcoming, is a sign that such person has severe mental illness, and cannot see what is essential for the nation!

That is the resignation of Donald Trump, far more dangerous now, than Richard Nixon was, when he resigned on August 9, 1974!

Americans And Sacrifice, Rather Than Just Self Concern

Ronald 37 Comments

It is infuriating that so many Americans have such selfish, self centered needs, that nothing else matters to them, in the middle of a CoronaVirus Pandemic!

God forbid they cannot get their haircuts!

God forbid they cannot do workouts in gyms!

God forbid they have to be able to get tattoos, a dangerous practice, and really labels them for life as egomaniacs, who have mental issues!

God forbid that women cannot get their nails painted and their hair dyed in a desperate attempt to make themselves look better, as if only appearance matters, not character, intelligence, and decent behavior!

God forbid they cannot forego their urgent need to go bowling, or participate in other sports that will endanger them and others, as they cannot fill their time with such things as reading or music as more significant ways to improve their lives, and make them more interesting to others!

This self centeredness and lack of rational behavior is on full display this weekend in Georgia, and soon in other states, as inconvenience cannot be abided!

Yes, we all want to do what we wish to do, but in the middle of a pandemic that already has killed more than 50,000 Americans and many more coming, how about a sense of reality and common sense, and accept sacrifice in an environment of accepting that we are all in this together, and need to care about more than just ourselves?

79 Days From End Of Impeachment Trial To 50,000 Dead Americans In CoronaVirus Pandemic!

Ronald 5 Comments

On Wednesday, February 5, 2020, the US Senate voted to find President Donald Trump “not guilty” on two impeachment charges.

The next day, Thursday, February 6, 2020, the first American died from the CoronaVirus, a 57 year old woman in California.

78 Days have passed from that first death on February 6, and today, 50,000 Americans have died from the pandemic, and in about two days, the death toll will pass the 54,000 killed in Korea over three years in the early 1950s, and in four days, the death toll will be 58,000, passing the number of Americans killed in Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s!

All of the wars in American history, minus the three big ones (Civil War, World War II, World War I) add up to 130,832, a total likely to be passed, and World War I itself is 116,000. And certainly within possibility is the combination of these two listed numbers, for a total of 246,832 dead!

Hopefully, the World War II total of 405,000 will not be reached, or the Civil War total for both sides of 750,000!

But as stated earlier in my blog entry of April 5, 19 days ago, we could eventually surpass all wars combined, a grand total of 1,404,092. god forbid!

While we might not have avoided this crisis simply by Donald Trump being convicted and removed from office the day before the first death, it is possible to believe that the new President, Mike Pence, would have taken the advice of scientists, after taking office, and would have reacted in a very different and saner fashion than Donald Trump has done in the past 78 days!

Whatever Mike Pence has as shortcomings, it seems reasonable to think the present disaster would have been treated differently, as Pence has acted in a responsible manner since February 26, when he was appointed to head the task force to deal with the pandemic.

Pence can be criticized for being too sycophantic, biting his lip, and keeping a stiff face in public, but seriously working on the burden he was given in a manner that, under the circumstances, was likely the most that could be expected.

This blogger and author wishes to believe that history would have been different had Pence been President, and that he would have been much more proactive.

That reality, if it had occurred, would likely have been an asset in the election campaign, having come in with just nine months to the election and eleven and a half months to the inauguration, and the Republican Party might have been able to count on a possible Pence victory.

But, instead, except for Mitt Romney, the Republicans in the US Senate totally blew their credibility, and now will suffer defeats in Congress of historical proportions, and a massive defeat of Donald Trump on November 3.

To recover from this double disaster, the second Great Depression we are now in, and the greatest health crisis ever in American history, and reelect Trump, is simply impossible, if one goes by historical trends over nearly 250 years.

For the American people to commit, effectively, suicide and reward the person and party that brought about this tragedy, is simply unrealistic to imagine occurring.

If it does, then the nation will, rapidly, decline as a world leader and major power, a trend already provoked by the absolutely insane policies of Donald Trump!