Former Vice President Joe Biden is forming a committee to consider who should be his running mate for Vice President.
The choice of a future Vice President and possible President is crucial, so many of the proposed choices should not be seriously considered.
Any Vice President has to have the experience, the knowledge, the intelligence to take over on a moment’s notice.
That person needs to be much younger than Biden, who will reach 78 two weeks after the Presidential Election of 2020.
Such a person has to have the success of being an officeholder with state wide success.
Such a person should likely not be a Governor, as such a person should be kept busy dealing with the CoronaVirus Pandemic, not running for Vice President.
Such a person should not come from a state where if such person became Vice President, that state’s Senate seat might switch to the Republicans.
So already, just from what this author and blogger has stated, it is his belief that Elizabeth Warren, Stacey Abrams, Gretchen Whitmer, or Michelle Lujan Grisham, and any member of the House of Representatives should automatically be eliminated, such as Val Demings of Florida.
So who is on the list, and clearly stands out, and has already run for President, giving much needed extra national exposure?
Two US Senators are the finalists, with the reality that the Democratic Presidential nominee has always selected a US Senator as a running mate since 1944, except twice.
In 1972, it was George McGovern who chose Senator Thomas Eagleton, but he was forced out due to fears because he had undergone psychiatric treatment, and was replaced by Kennedy brother in law Sergeant Shriver.
And in 1984 ,Walter Mondale blundered in naming Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro as his Vice Presidential choice.
It should also be pointed out that those two times were the most disastrous for the Democrats, running against second term candidates Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, and in both elections, McGovern and Mondale only won one state and Washington, DC in the Electoral College.
Those two US Senators are Kamala Harris of California and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, with California certain to have a Democratic replacement in the Senate.
But Minnesota is much more uncertain, although right now that state has a Democratic Governor, Tim Walz.
But in a followup election after a temporary appointment, Minnesota could not be guaranteed to elect a permanent Democratic replacement in the US Senate.
So while either Harris or Klobuchar (age 56 or 60) are the two best choices, Harris has a slight edge in the sense her Senate seat is safely Democratic, but either woman would make an excellent VP, and a potential President of the United States!
More often than not, a major-party’s ticket will consist of two—one as U.S. President and one as U.S. Vice President—who are from states normally aligned to the party for that current and more recent period.
It does not play this way every time. But, most times it does.
In 2016, Donald Trump became the first presidential winner to not carry his home state since Richard Nixon in 1968. (Like Trump, Nixon claimed New York his home state in 1968. It was carried by Hubert Humphrey. With re-election in 1972, Nixon claimed California his home state. Here in 2020, Trump now claims as his home state bellwether Florida.)
The 1968 Republican ticket—Nixon from New York and Spiro Agnew from Maryland—were the last-to-date major-party ticket in which the home states of both candidates did not carry for what turned out to be a winning ticket.
The 2012 Republican ticket—Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Paul Ryan of Wisconsin—was the last-to-date in which the home states of both candidates did not carry for what turned out to be a losing ticket.
I would anticipate the 2020 Democratic vice-presidential nominee—for presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden of Democratic-aligned Delaware—will come from one of the other 16 Democratic-aligned states: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, or Washington. (I consider Lean Democratic Maine, statewide, and Minnesota and New Hampshire vulnerable for a Republican pickup if incumbent Donald Trump wins re-election and wins a net gain of at least one state. It is historically typical for re-elected incumbents to gain.)
I do consider this: If the United States presidential election of 2020 ends up a Democratic pickup, then a likewise Democratic pickup state could be considered. When it comes to their 2016 margins, and how they may materialize here in 2020, my estimated and probable order (up to ten) are as follows: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (tipping-point state from 2016), Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio. (This does not count congressional districts from Nebraska and Maine. I’m referring to statewide.)
That actually worked for both U.S. President and U.S. Vice President with Bill Clinton and Al Gore with their first election in 1992. (And, yes, no problem in 1996.) But, at that time, Arkansas had carried for all prevailing Democratic presidential winners. That state voted for all winners in the nine consecutive elections of 1972 to 2004. And Tennessee voted with all winners, with exceptions of 1924 and 1960, from 1912 to 2004. So, they were bellwether during that period. Now—they’re as Strongly Republican as former bellwethers California and Illinois, to name two Top 10 populous states, are Strongly Democratic. (Clinton could not carry Arkansas in this day and age. Neither could Ronald Reagan with California.)
Although I am not predicting specifically who, I would lean toward the 2020 Democratic vice-presidential nominee hailing from a state currently aligned at the presidential level for this political party.