Month: November 2011

The Conservative Assault On Mitt Romney Grows: George Will And Erick Erickson

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As the conservatives in the Republican Party move from one candidate to another in their search for the ideal conservative nominee for President, Mitt Romney keeps on chugging along with about one fourth of the vote in every national and state poll.

There is absolutely no inspiration or excitement among conservatives for Mitt Romney, with the feeling that he has no principles that he will not abandon in his quest for the Presidency, if it will gain support for his candidacy.

This is a real weakness that Mitt Romney would have to face if he ends up as the GOP Presidential nominee, and more conservatives daily are indicating they would be unable to accept him.

It is also clear that a Romney Presidency would face major hurdles, as if he gains a dominantly conservative GOP majority in Congress, he will have troubles dealing with them, similar to Barack Obama’s troubles.

The irony is that Romney would probably have more support at times from Democrats, although they also would not be willing to give him too many victories, so as to defeat him for reelection.

But first things first, as now in the past ten days,. well respected conservative George Will, and today, conservative blogger Erick Erickson have made it very clear they cannot accept Romney, and think he would lose to Barack Obama in the Presidential Election of 2012, and would take the conservative movement with him down the drain, and that they cannot tolerate.

So one wonders if a third party effort would develop, or if conservatives would just stay home, unenthusiastic and unwilling to vote for Romney, therefore giving Obama the victory.

So with one year to go to the election, and with growing dissatisfaction with front runner Mitt Romney, the odds in favor of Barack Obama seem to be improving!

Will Newt Gingrich Become The “Anti Romney” Conservative Alternative?

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So the “Flavor of the Month” is rapidly losing support in the Republican Party!

With a woman coming out today with a statement that Herman Cain made inappropriate sexual advances toward her, the fourth such woman, and this one willing to show her face, we will soon see the rapid decline of Herman Cain as a Presidential candidate, no great loss, as he had proved to be inadequate in his preparation, and ill informed on one issue after another, and with a crazy 9-9-9 tax plan that would raise taxes on the middle class and help the rich avoid taxes more than now!

With Herman Cain on the decline, after Rick Perry last month and Michele Bachmann the month before, now it looks more likely that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich might become the new “Anti Romney” conservative alternative for the Republican Presidential nomination.

Gingrich has the intelligence, the knowledge, the skills that are needed, no doubt, to run for the Presidency. He is a very skilled debater who would make a confrontation between himself and President Barack Obama the best Presidential debates ever, since the Lincoln Douglas Senate debates in Illinois in 1858!

What he lacks is discipline, control of his rhetoric and personal behavior, and an absolutely horrific record of scandal, poor ethics, and low morals as Speaker, and in his personal life, having had three marriages and two divorces, and a reputation as a womanizer par excellence!

GIngrich has always been one of the nastiest campaigners around, and has made some of the most outrageous statements and issued some of the most disgraceful personal attacks on President Obama. He has no shame, and seems to be immune to anything but his own ambitions and desires.

The thought of a Gingrich Presidency is to imagine someone who would be more hostile to the press and more controversial in the Presidency than anyone we have ever had. It would be damaging to the institution of the Presidency, and lower the reputation historically of that office!

This shows the sad state of the Republican Party, that Mitt Romney is unable to move beyond 25 percent in any poll, and the reality that conservatives do not want him, and are looking high and low for any alternative to the former Massachusetts Governor.

So with rising public opinion poll support, expect Newt Gingrich to become the new “Flavor of the Month” for November!

Nate Silver Gives Odds For Republican Presidential Candidates A Year Before The Presidential Election

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Nate Silver of the NEW YORK TIMES on Friday explained, according to his statistical model, the odds of any GOP candidate for President having the opportunity to win the popular vote in the 2012 Presidential Election..

Note he does not say that any of these candidates will win the election, because, of course, the Electoral College will decide who wins the White House, and four times the popular vote loser nationally (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000) has won the election.

According to his model, the best candidate with the most opportunity to win is Jon Huntsman, the former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China, who has so far made no dent in the public opinion polls.

And yet, Silver’s argument is that with a 2.5% growth of the economy in 2012, a fairly tepid growth thought to be the most likely and best scenario, Huntsman has a 71 percent chance of winning the popular vote, as compared to 58 percent for Mitt Romney. No other candidate can win under this model, with Herman Cain having a 41 percent chance, Rick Perry a 30 percent chance, and Michele Bachmann having a 12 percent chance.

IF there is a stalled economy with no growth, Huntsman’s chances rise to 90 percent, Romney to 83 percent, Cain to 70 percent, Perry to 59 percent, and Bachmann to 34 percent.

If GDP grows only 2.3 percent instead of 2.5 percent, Huntsman has a 73 percent chance of winning, Romney 60 percent, Cain 44 percent, Perry 32 percent, and Bachmann 14 percent.

If the economy grows by the unexpected amount of 4 percent GDP growth, then Huntsman has a 55 percent chance, Romney 40 percent, Cain 25 percent, Perry 17 percent, and Bachmann 5 percent.

Notice that Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are not even considered in this model drawn up by Nate Silver.

It ultimately comes down to what the author has said many times; that Jon Huntsman, despite his poor performance in polls so far, is by far the best bet for the Republican Party against Barack Obama, BUT the Tea Party does not care for him; evangelical Christians will not like him for being a Mormon; and unless he can win New Hampshire, he will have no opportunity to move ahead, and right now it seems unlikely.

And since Romney has many of the same problems as Huntsman, as listed above, and has actually less of a chance than Huntsman among key GOP groups, it looks likely that the Republican Party will blow the chance they theoretically have to win the White House!

Three Years Since Election Of Barack Obama And One Year To Next Presidential Election!

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Three years ago last evening, at around 11 pm Eastern time, Barack Obama became the 44th President of the United States, a truly historic moment in American history! And tomorrow, it will be exactly one year to the next Presidential election!

It has been a very eventful, tumultuous three years, and many have been disappointed that all of the problems left by the Republican party control of Congress for 12 years and control of the White House for eight years under President George W. Bush, have not been resolved overnight.

Of course, it was truly unrealistic to believe that we would overcome the economic disaster of the Great Recession magically in three years.

But a lot of progress has been made, and in foreign policy and national security, Barack Obama has had an amazing three years.

Also, socially, we have seen great progress in promotion of human rights and the taking of the proper stand for workers, women, gays, and other groups that have not had a fair shake in the past in our country.

Barack Obama may have made people think he could walk on water, but the reality is that progress in many areas, including health care, education, constitutional law, and the environment has been made, but still leaving room for improvement.

To believe that any of the Republicans running for President offer a better future is to dwell in nonsensical dreaming!

The Further Deterioration Of The Presidential Candidates: Can’t We Find Qualified Candidates?

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The deterioration of the Republican Party continues, and it is amazing that whenever one thinks we have reached the “bottom of the barrel”, the situation gets worse.

Many have criticized George W. Bush as not very bright, not very qualified to be our President, and some have unfairly said he is the worst President in American history, a totally inaccurate statement.

But when one looks at all of the faults of George W. Bush, and then examines Sarah Palin who considered running; Michele Bachmann; Rick Perry; and now Herman Cain, honestly it gets worse all of the time and makes George W. Bush look like a genius!

Palin had little knowledge of any subject, but at least had SOME experience in public office.

Michele Bachmann came across as more looney and nutty, but at least had a few terms in the House of Representatives.

Rick Perry came across as making George W. Bush look brilliant, and has proved to be a terrible candidate, but at least he has been Governor of the second largest state for eleven years.

And then we have Herman Cain, with NO qualifications other than having been the head of Godfather Pizza, with NO experience in government at all, and totally coming across as a fool! And then he has sexual harassment charges lodged against him, and he and others start to compare him to Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, who had similar charges against him in 1991, but overcame them and went on to the Court, where he remains after 20 years.

The point is that Herman Cain is actually far worse than George W. Bush, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry!

it is also true that Herman Cain is no Clarence Thomas, who at least has intellectual qualifications, even if one does not agree with his jurisprudence!

So the GOP gets worse and worse and worse, while Mitt Romney flounders with a consistent one fourth of the party for him, and three fourths against him.

And Jon Huntsman, the best candidate the party has to offer, is “dead in the water” with one or two percent!

What a great tragedy for the party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and Reagan!

The Herman Cain Phenomenon And Public Opinion Polls: A Parallel Universe!

Ronald 1 Comment

Herman Cain has had one hell of a week, and yet, unlike Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, he goes up in public opinion polls, while Mitt Romney stays stagnant in his numbers, still only about one out of four Republicans supporting him.

Herman Cain does not know China has had nuclear weapons since 1964.

Herman Cain does not seem to care that his 9-9-9 plan would raise taxes on 84 percent of the people, while lowering taxes on the wealthy.

Herman Cain suggests that we build a fence between Mexico and the United States which is electrified, and also wants a moat with alligators in it to stop illegal immigrants.

Herman Cain says he is against abortion completely, but wants the woman to have the choice on ending pregnancies.

Herman Cain does not know anything about foreign policy, and makes fun of the name of an important ally in the Near East in the war in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, saying he does not know who its leader is and does not care.

Herman Cain believes that it is alright to sexually harass women in the workplace and that no one should be disturbed by this.

Herman Cain has made so many other inane statements and shown a tremendous lack of interest in details on public issues, and seems more interested in selling his book and improving his chances to make money on motivational speeches.

Through all this, apparently, many Republicans either do not believe the sexual harassment charges or think they are no big deal, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, so Cain’s ratings have improved.

It does not matter to these Republicans that Herman Cain has no knowledge or experience in government, and they seem to be willing to “wing” it and let an incompetent, stupid man become the leader of the free world, whose best credentials is that he headed a pizza corporation!

The ability of Republicans and many Americans to live in a “bubble”, in their own version of the “parallel universe” is mind boggling!

Will the American people at large be moronic enough to put into office a businessman who is no Wendell Willkie or Ross Perot, both men having had an intelligent, accomplished career before running for President?

And remember, neither Willkie nor Perot WON, and if Herman Cain somehow becomes our next President, God save the United States and the world!

Have We Ever Had A Dumb, Stupid President? Yes, Warren G. Harding And Andrew Johnson!

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With the growing evidence that many people who run for President are ill informed, lacking in basic knowledge and curiosity about public affairs, and in some cases, plain dumb or stupid, the question arises whether we have ever had a truly dumb, stupid President of the United States!

We are not talking about one’s personality, or level of success or failure as President, but simply someone who was truly the “ordinary” man or woman, who often is not involved or interested in public affairs and does not have the intelligence or knowledge or judgment to be President of the United States!

The question is whether an “ordinary” man or woman should be allowed to ascend to the highest public office, and have the power to affect the lives, not only of Americans, but the world at large.

We have certainly had Presidents who were truly brilliant and intellectual, including John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, John Quincy Adams, Abraham Lincoln, James Garfield, Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, Woodrow Wilson, Herbert Hoover, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. That makes a list of 15 of the 43 Presidents, one out of every three.

Then we have had Presidents who were not brilliant or intellectual, but had great qualifications that made them appropriate for the office of President, including George Washington, James Monroe, Andrew Jackson, Martin Van Buren, John Tyler, James K. Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford Hayes, Grover Cleveland, Benjamin Harrison, William McKinley, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Lyndon B. Johnson, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush, making it a list of 18 Presidents, approximately 40 percent, and together with the earlier list, a total of 33 out of 43 Presidents, about 75 percent of the entire list of Chief Executives.

That leave us with ten Presidents who can be divided into two groups: the military generals who had little or no experience in politics–William Henry Harrison, Zachary Taylor, Ulysses Grant, and Dwight D. Eisenhower, who can at least be given credit as having proved themselves in the military.

And finally, there are six Presidents who can be considered as mediocrity personified–chronologically Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, Andrew Johnson, Chester Alan Arthur, Warren G. Harding, and Calvin Coolidge, but even among them, it is clear cut that TWO Presidents would be considered the closest to dumb, stupid, ill informed, ill equipped to be President, and one was simply a successor not elected, while the other was elected President and was a true disaster!

So if the reader has gone this far, the question is who makes the final cut of the two? They are Andrew Johnson, a terrible choice by Abraham Lincoln for his second term, clearly not thinking about his competence to be President–and Warren G. Harding, who was elected in a landslide by the voters in 1920, and was the absolute total disaster above all Presidents, and did us a favor by dying in office after 29 months as President!

Can we afford nearly a century later to have another Warren G. Harding or Andrew Johnson? Can we afford a Sarah Palin, a Michele Bachmann, a Herman Cain, a Rick Perry? God forbid that were to happen!

Presidential Debate Dates Announced For Colorado, Kentucky, New York And Florida

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The Commission on Presidential Debates has announced the dates and locations for the Presidential debates of 2012.

The first debate will be at the University of Denver in Colorado, on Wednesday, October 3, just about five weeks before the election.

On Thursday, October 11, the Vice Presidential debate will take place at Centre College In Danville, Kentucky, where an earlier debate was held.

Then on Tuesday, October 16, a second Presidential debate will be held at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, also a previous debate location.

Finally, on Monday, October 22, the final debate will be held at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, just fifteen days before the election.

The fact that two of the debates are in “swing states”, the first and the last, is noteworthy, based on the concept of “first impressions” and “last licks or opportunity”!

A planned backup site, in case for some reason one of the debates cannot for some reason be held, is Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, the ultimate “swing” state, which was won by John McCain over Barack Obama by just a few thousand votes, with it taking many days before McCain could be declared the winner in that state.

One should point out that since 1900, only TWICE has the winner of the Presidency lost Missouri, and both times just by a few thousand votes–Dwight D. Eisenhower losing to Adlai Stevenson in 1956, and Barack Obama losing to John McCain in 2008!

The only candidates to be allowed in the debates will be those who have 15 percent support in the polls, with Ross Perot in 1992 being the only third party candidate to have the opportunity to debate the Republican and Democratic nominees. It is highly unlikely that any third party movement will have any chance to reach that threshold!

Herman Cain And The Race Card: Hypocrisy To The Extreme!

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Herman Cain has long made it clear that he does not think race is a factor in American life, and has shown no concern over the high incarceration rate and poverty rate that African Americans are faced with.

He has been quick to poke fun at Barack Obama as not a true black, but instead at himself as a true black who is against affirmative action, against poverty programs, against any consideration of the horrible social conditions that many people of his race deal with daily.

But yet, as soon as he is attacked for sexual harassment, he pulls a “Clarence Thomas”, claiming he is a victim because he is black, that he is being subjected to a “high tech lynching” and a “witch hunt”, and suddenly the conservative talk show hosts use the race card, while attacking Barack Obama if even a suggestion of Obama’s race is brought up as somehow promoting the “black cause”!

The fact is that Herman Cain, now blaming Rick Perry for what is happening, must come to grips with the fact that such a story would not have come about without substantial evidence, and he is simply trying to blame someone else for his own shortcomings, which include incompetence and ignorance about EVERY subject that he brings up or is questioned about!

Is Herman Cain ready for the “big time”? The answer clearly is NO!

Florida Republicans Attempting To Prevent Young Voter Registration And Prosecute Teachers Who Promote Good Citizenship!

Ronald 1 Comment

The Republican Party of Florida and Governor Rick Scott are in the process of promoting prosecution of teachers who encourage their high school seniors to register to vote, the ultimate lesson in good citizenship.

The new voter registration law in Florida, very similar to that in other GOP governed states, makes it much more difficult for people to register to vote, requiring government sponsored ID cards; making it harder for college students to vote on their campuses; cutting down the number of days of voting ahead of Election Day; requiring people who change counties to cast a provisional ballot at the polls, which might not be counted; discouraging the League of Women Voters from promoting registration due to a demand that all signed applications must be handed in no later than two days after applications are completed; and assessing fines of up to $1,000 for delayed submission of applications.

Two teachers are facing fines for having missed the 48 hour deadline for student applications, which prosecutes teachers for promoting good citizenship, and discourages new, young voters.

It is clear that the GOP and Governor Scott are trying to intimidate minorities, young people, the elderly, and the poor so as to manipulate the vote to favor the Republican Presidential nominee in 2012. This is a violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965; the 14th Amendment; the 15th Amendment; the 19th Amendment; the 24th Amendment; and the 26th Amendment; and is being pursued in court as a corrupt attempt to fix election results in Florida, as well as elsewhere, by the Obama Administration.

Meanwhile, however, two teachers face fines, and this is another slap in the face to educators, who already have been shown lack of respect by other legislation in Florida which demeans their profession!