moderates

Sunbelt States (Texas, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) Will Make Rust Belt Mid West (Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio) No Longer Factor In Future Presidential Elections By Mid 2020s And After

In the midst of constant rehashing of the 2016 Presidential Election results, one point is being lost by political observers.

The nation is changing demographically very rapidly.

What happened in Virginia on Election Day this year is a sign of the future. Suburbanites, women, minorities, white collar educated, those under 45, and Independents swung over massively to the Democratic Party.

Those trends are not temporary, but permanent, as the older generation, which tends to be more conservative, dies off over the next decade, and the percentage of more educated people grows, and as the percentages of Latinos and Asian Americans start to change Sun Belt states.

So the near future is clearly that the states of Texas, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina will turn Blue, while the Rust Belt Mid West, not as populated with the groups that helped to make Virginia as Blue a state as it is (Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio) may go back and forth from Red to Blue, but in the Electoral College, the Rust Belt Mid West will matter much less than it did in 2016, assisting the victory of Donald Trump.

So one can say with a great amount of assurance that by 2024 or 2028, the Democrats will have the electoral advantage in the Electoral College, and are unlikely to lose it, as the Republican Party continues to alienate even their base of less educated and rural voters, and as the Sun Belt turns Democratic long term.

Of course, as part of this transition, the Democratic Party needs to move to the Left, be more progressive and liberal,and not come across as a moderate alternative to the Democratic Party, as that is the future of the party, to act more like it is the time of Franklin D. Roosevelt or Lyndon B. Johnson. This is what the groups which helped the Virginia victory desire for the future.

Republican Tax Plan Will Hurt Middle Class, Promote More Concentration Of Wealth, And Will Kill Republican Majority Whether It Passes Or Not!

The Republican Party’s attempt to promote “tax reform” will fail, whether it passes or not.

The likelihood is that Republicans in New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California will refuse to vote for it, since it ends deduction of state and local income taxes on tax forms in those states.

It is also likely that a few Republicans in the US Senate will oppose it because of other aspects of the plan that make it uncomfortable to support.

The bill would victimize the middle class, and promote greater concentration of wealth in the top one percent and the corporations.

It would harm the white working class voters who put Donald Trump in office in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The legislation adds $1.75 trillion to the national debt, and cuts so many programs and benefits, displeasing deficit hawks because of the former, and moderates and independents due to the latter.

Charities will be harmed by the legislation, and home builders and real estate agents will be affected by limits on mortgage interest deductions, making people less willing to buy homes, and instead to rent their housing.

Corporations will gain the most from the legislation, and many Americans are angry that many corporations already pay little or no taxes.

The legislation would also hurt Obamacare in a different form, even after failure to repeal it earlier this year, and no replacement is offered for millions of Americans who benefit from it.

The end of the estate tax, which affects so few people, also will displease the average American, who does not understand why all inheritances should be untouched in any way by taxes, as wealthy people have a responsibility to pay their fair share in life, as well as at the end of life, rather than pass on tens of millions to their heirs, without any responsibility to contribute to the future of American society.

Also, medical deductions would be limited, and students who have massive loan payments would not be able to deduct any of them on their tax return, undermining the sick and the young.

One can expect that this legislation will not pass, and therefore will harm the Republican Party, but if somehow it does pass, it also will harm the Republican brand in the 2018 midterm elections!

Jeb Bush Faces Fierce Opposition As He Plans Presidential Run For 2016!

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has become the first Republican to indicate his intention to seek the Republican Presidential nomination in 2016, but he faces fierce opposition from the right wing of his party–the Tea Party, many Congressional conservatives, talk radio, and Fox News Channel.

The feeling of many is that Jeb is too centrist, too much “Establishment” Republican for much of the party that has become extreme right wing.

Jeb is seen as unwilling to cater to the Right; that he wants to run as a moderate Republican; and he continues to back national educational standards, known as Common Core; supports immigration reform, as his brother did in office; and the thought of a third Bush Presidency is not very appealing to many in his party.

Jeb is seen as arrogant, cocky, and condescending to many who do not agree with him, and his family’s close association with Bill and Hillary Clinton, ironic if Bush runs against Hillary, also alienates many in his party.

Jeb has also said it is time for the GOP to stop trying to repeal ObamaCare, and also refuses to say that he will never raise taxes if elected President.

So while he is now seen as the frontrunner for the nomination, the likelihood of his being the candidate in 2016 is seen as highly unlikely, as the party continues its move out of the mainstream!

The US Senate Becomes More Ideological Than Ever!

The US Senate used to be a legislative body with moderate and even liberal Republicans, and moderate and conservative Democrats, allowing for a “crossing of the aisle”, and the creation of coalitions of Republicans and Democrats to promote legislation.

The recent Senate elections further destroyed any such “crossing of the aisle”, and insured more deadlock and gridlock, as moderate Democrats were defeated, and the most moderate Republican Senate nominee was defeated.

I am referring to the defeat of Mark Pryor of Arkansas, and the pending likely defeat of Mark Begich of Alaska and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, on the Democratic side, and the defeat of Scott Brown of New Hampshire, who was often called the most moderate Republican.

When one looks at the new 2015 Senate, who is really “Moderate”?

On the Democratic side, we could say Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Bill Nelson of Florida, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Jon Tester of Montana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, and the almost defeated Mark Warner of Virginia, who shocked everyone, including himself, by his almost loss to Ed Gillespie.

On the Republican side, the list of “Moderates” would include Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, John McCain of Arizona, Jeff Flake of Arizona, Mark Kirk of Illinois, Susan Collins of Maine, Rob Portman of Ohio, and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia.

Some readers might be shocked to see McCain and Flake included on this list, but in comparison to the rest of the GOP, they are, often, somewhat moderate and reasonable, although not reliably so.

This is a sad state of affairs, and not likely to change anytime soon!

Potential For Four State Rivalries For President In Republican Caucuses And Primaries, And The Rest Of The Cast Of Characters!

As the 2016 Presidential nomination battles begin, now that the Midterm Elections of 2014 are history, there is the potential for four state rivalries for President in the Republican caucuses and primaries.

Florida sees the potential candidacy of former Governor Jeb Bush and Senator Marco Rubio.

Ohio sees the potential candidacy of Governor John Kasich and Senator Rob Portman.

Texas sees the potential candidacy of former Governor Rick Perry and Senator Ted Cruz.

Wisconsin see the potential candidacy of Governor Scott Walker and Congressman Paul Ryan.

At this point, it seems likely that the Florida, Texas, and Wisconsin rivalries are likely to occur in reality, while Ohio is more questionable.

But, ironically, it is Ohio that has the best combination of potential candidates who could be serious competitors in November 2016, as both Kasich and Portman, while strongly conservative, come across as having a good chance to compete for the moderate center and Independents, and have not shot themselves in the foot, as five of the six others mentioned above have done on a regular basis.

The only other potential candidate of the above group of eight, who has a chance to accomplish the same as Kasich and Portman, is Jeb Bush.

Rubio, Cruz and Walker represent Tea Party right wing views, while Perry is an also ran and an embarrassment to himself, and Ryan was on a losing ticket with Mitt Romney, and has made no effort to moderate his harsh views on the poor of society, or his budget plans which do not add up to reality.

Add to this list a cast of characters which should be interesting but self destructive: Maryland pediatric surgeon Dr. Benjamin Carson; New Jersey Governor Chris Christie; former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee; Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal; Kentucky Senator Rand Paul; former Pennsylvania Governor Rick Santorum; and of course, 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney!

Oh, and one more Governor, who should not be ignored, as a possible “Dark Horse”, and having the ability to do what Kasich, Portman, and Bush could do–appeal to the center—Indiana Governor Mike Pence!

A Revolutionary Idea: Two Democratic Women That Could Lead To Massive Democratic Victory In 2016 And Beyond!

The assumption is that Hillary Clinton has the great advantage for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2016, but there is great concern that she could have opposition on the Left of her party, and needs shoring up of the base on issues such as Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts represents—attack on Wall Street greed, and advocacy of relief of student loan interest rates, the minimum wage battle, unemployment compensation extension, and other populist issues.

Warren has shown strength in campaigning in “Red” states such as Kentucky and West Virginia, as she supported Alison Lundergan Grimes and Natalie Tennant in their Senate bids.

Warren is a lightning rod who inspires people in states where the masses of the population have suffered under uncaring Republican Governors, Senators and House members, and many people have gravitated to her when they hear her message of speaking for the average American of all backgrounds, somewhat reminiscent of Robert F. Kennedy nearly 40 years ago!

The question is whether Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren could co-exist and work as a team for a national campaign and in an administration after victory.

The question is why not, and while their ages in 2016, 69 for Hillary and 67 for Elizabeth are not the best scenario, it could open up the possibility of one term each for both women in the White House, OR two terms for Hillary with Elizabeth a willing participant in the Vice Presidency.

The two would be a dynamic team, and would inspire women, working class whites, African Americans, Latinos, labor, and progressives, liberals, moderates, and independents in such a manner as to turn “Red’ states “Blue”, leading to a massive victory nationwide and a long term Democratic dominance!

Why cannot America accept two women as their leaders? It is about time to do just that, and it would motivate and inspire the largest voter turnout in American history!

One could project that the so called “swing” states of Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida would all be ‘Blue”, but so, likely, would be Georgia, Kentucky, West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and some possibility in Texas and Arizona, as well!

That would leave only the Great Plains states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma); the Southern states of South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi; the Mountain States of Idaho, Wyoming, Utah; and Alaska as remaining “Red” states.

It is time to consider the revolutionary change of two women leading our government, two talented women of great competence and brilliance—Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren!

Republican Senators And The Minimum Wage Law

The Republican Party has effectively written off those workers who are paid the minimum wage, not caring about how they are to survive in an economy with the situation stacked against them.

It has been nearly a decade since the minimum wage was raised, and people forget that the minimum wage was never raised during the 1980’s, and so the cost of living is way beyond what the minimum wage should be.

Originally established at 25 cents an hour in the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938. the minimum wage should now be about $15 an hour based on inflation, but instead is, nationally at $7.25 an hour for nearly a decade, although some states have raised the limit.

The bill that failed to get to a vote in the Senate, due to the filibuster tactic, would have raised the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour in stages until 2016, but NOT one GOP Senator, not even Senator Susan Collins of Maine, or Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, or a few others thought to have some “moderate” tendencies, voted for the rise in the minimum wage.

Many of the minimum wage workers are breadwinners for their families, and the stress of having too little income also affects their physical and mental health, but obviously Republicans and conservatives do not give a damn about those realities!

Today’s minimum wage is 25 percent below what it was in 1968, an absolute atrocity! Putting extra money in the hands of the working poor would make life easier, add to business profits, and would certainly all be put back into the economy, but the Republicans are determined to punish the poor for being poor, and in so doing, harm children and women, even more than men.

If this is not the new “Gilded Age”, what is it, not only for the poor, but for the dwindling middle class?

This is Scrooge at its best!

What The Republican Party Used To Be And No Longer Is–Rest In Peace!

The Republican Party of the past stood against slavery and slavery expansion, and for racial equality and civil rights, in the age of Abraham Lincoln.

The Republican Party of the past stood for progressive reform in the Progressive Era of Theodore Roosevelt, for conservation of natural resources, labor rights, and the rights of women.

The Republican Party of the 1960s and 1970s used the words “moderate” and “progressive” in its party platforms, and backed wage and price controls under Richard Nixon; support for an equal rights amendment for women; called for help for minority groups; federal funding for mass transit projects; advocated voting rights for Washington, DC in the House of Representatives and US Senate; promoted environmental standards; supported civil rights protesters; backed immigration and rights of workers in a broad context; supported expansion of Social Security; called for campaign finance reform to overcome the power and influence of political action committees; and avoided a stand on abortion rights, acknowledging the controversy over it after Roe V. Wade in 1973, but not condemning abortion until 1980.

The Republican Party of past eras—Lincoln, TR, and the 1960s and 1970s—was a moderate, mainstream party, and could work and negotiate with Democrats.

That is no longer true in the age of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, where even a “moderate” Republican in Massachusetts ten years ago is now selling his soul to the emergent right wing of the party, against all of the principles of the historic Republican Party!

One could say that the GOP is in a state where it could be declared RIP–Rest in Peace!

The Romney-Ryan Ticket As Seen By African Americans, Hispanics-Latinos And Women: Worst Since Polling Began!

The Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan Presidential ticket is in deep trouble, as polls demonstrate the unbelievable gap that they face gaining support among African Americans, Hispanics-Latinos, and women.

In one poll, Barack Obama leads Romney 94-0 among African Americans! Did you see that, ZERO for Romney, a stunning figure!

In one poll, Barack Obama leads Romney 63-28 among Hispanics-Latinos, a 35 point gap!

And among women, Barack Obama, in a recent poll, leads 54-39 percent, a 15 point gap!!

With absolutely ZERO support among African Americans, 35 points behind among Hispanics-Latinos, and 15 points behind among women, the Romney-Ryan ticket is on the road to total disaster, as they are also behind among labor voters, Jews, young people, moderates, Independents, and also behind Obama in all “swing” or battleground states except North Carolina, and almost even in Colorado.

Although they will win more states in the “heartland”, and therefore more electoral votes than Barry Goldwater did in 1964, they are on the way to a worst defeat than any GOP loser—Gerald Ford, George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole or John McCain–since a half century ago!

Republican Party Platform So Far To The Right Politically That It Cannot Appeal To Moderates And Independents!

The Republican Party is formulating its platform a week before the Republican National Convention in Tampa next week, and it is so far to the Right politically, that it will have the effect of alienating to moderates and Independents!

The platform denies any abortions, no matter whether due to rape, incest, or life of the mother.

The platform takes a harsh stand on immigration, in line with the Arizona and Alabama laws now being sued in federal court by the Justice Department.

The platform supports strict ID voters laws, designed to suppress the votes of the young, the elderly, the poor, and minorities.

The platform supports the Ryan budget, including the privatization of Medicare and the massive tax cuts for the wealthy, while cutting Food Stamps, Pell Grants, and other programs for the middle class and the poor.

The platform refuses to accept gay rights, including gay marriage, but also rejects any recognition of civil unions, keeping gay Americans second class citizens!

These are just some of the outrageous planks in the GOP platform, and it is impossible to imagine that sane people will wish to support such a vindictive, extremist platform that would be designed to undermine the rights, freedoms, and privileges of millions of Americans!

Moderate Republicans will flee from a party they no longer recognize, and Independents will, by large margins, swing over to the Democrats, because there will be no alternative choice that is rational and reasonable!