Michelle Nunn

The End Of The Political Careers Of Several Politicians

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Tuesday’s Midterm Elections ended the careers of several well known politicians.

Charlie Crist now has the distinction of losing a Senate race as a Republican in 1998 to Senator Bob Graham; losing a Senate race as an Independent in 2010 to Senator Marco Rubio; and losing a gubernatorial race as a Democrat to Governor Rick Scott!

Scott Brown now has the distinction of losing two Senate races two years apart, both times to women, in two neighboring states in New England–to Senator Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts in 2012 and to Senator Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire in 2014. He also won the remainder of the Senate term of Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts early in 2010 over another woman, Attorney General Martha Coakley, who now also has lost the gubernatorial race in Massachusetts on Tuesday to Republican candidate Charlie Baker in a very “blue” state. As far as anyone is aware, Brown is the only candidate to run against three women for a Senate seat, winning once, and losing twice.

While no one can say for sure that one defeat ends a political career, the fact that Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn lost a race for a Senate seat; and that Jason Carter, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, lost the gubernatorial race in the same state, which is grandfather had won 44 years ago on his road to the White House, likely ends their careers.

The same goes for Senator Mark Udall in Colorado, son of former Congressman and Presidential seeker Morris Udall of Arizona; and for Senator Mark Pryor, son of former Senator David Pryor in Arkansas; and the odds seem against Senator Mark Begich of Alaska, whose father, Nick Begich, was Congressman from that state; and for Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, whose dad and brother were Mayors of New Orleans, although those two races are not settled as of this writing, and Landrieu faces a runoff against a heavily favored Republican rival.

Such is politics, in office one day, and out the next, and the bigger losers are their staff members!

Family Heritage May Not Be Enough Now For Winning Or Holding Political Office!

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It used to be that if a candidate or officeholder had a famous family name, that he or she would be assured of election or reelection!

Tuesday’s Midterm elections may show that the tradition of family is no longer operative.

We have the following Senators up for reelection with a strong family history in public office, but all now in trouble.

Alaska–Mark Begich
Louisiana–Mary Landrieu
Arkansas–Mark Pryor
Colorado–Mark Udall

We have the following seeking office with family names.

Georgia–Jason Carter for Governor and Michelle Nunn for Senator
Kentucky–Alison Lundergan Grimes for Senator

At this time, none of the seven above are assured of victory, if one believes the public opinion polls!

Two Democratic Senate Women Nominees On Way To Victory, Insuring A Democratic Senate Majority In 2015-2016!

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As stated yesterday, the odds of two Democratic women Senators keeping their seats is highly likely–Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire and Kay Hagan in North Carolina.

Since the Democrats are bound to lose some seats in the US Senate, this is a good omen, but it is added to by the strong likelihood of two women running for the Senate in “Red” states, Kentucky and Georgia, who are seen as new women members of the upper chamber.

These are Alison Lundergan Grimes of Kentucky and Michelle Nunn of Georgia, who will counteract the likely loss of Democratic seats in Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana.

Grimes has had to fight a rough battle against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but the top two Kentucky newspapers have endorsed her, and the negativism and nastiness and obstructionism of McConnell makes him the number one target to defeat for Democrats nationwide. McConnell has done nothing for the large poor population, both white and black, in his state, and has been the cheer leader of every attempt to prevent Barack Obama from having any success in his time in the Presidency. In that, McConnell has failed, and it will be a glorious moment when he is forced to concede to Grimes, who has proved she is a tough lady, and that she will be a positive force in the Senate over the next six years.

Michelle Nunn, daughter of respected former Senator Sam Nunn, has run an excellent race against business David Perdue, who brags about his success at outsourcing jobs. Nunn is ahead in most polls, and is very competent and qualified, and like Grimes, is seen as likely to win, and this blogger predicts their success, along with Shaheen in New Hampshire and Hagan in North Carolina.

Tomorrow, we will look at three highly endangered seats–in Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

Washington Post 95% In Belief Republicans Will Win Senate In November: Totally A Delusion!

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It is amazing that the Washington Post is predicting by a percentage of 95 percent that the Republicans will win the six seats needed to control the US Senate in 2015-2016.

Even if they do, which is highly unlikely, with two thirds of the seats in 2016 having incumbent Republicans, it is certain that the Democrats, if they lose control will regain it with a major margin in 2016!

But to believe that the Republicans will gain six seats is belied by the likely defeat of Pat Roberts in Kansas and Mike Rounds in South Dakota, both which no one had thought possible to go to the Democrats.

And those who think Mary Landrieu is not going to win her seat in Louisiana forget her ability to survive, as the only sane major figure in a state which includes Bobby Jindal and David Vitter, both disgraces in every possible manner!

And Mitch McConnell in Kentucky is not going to win his seat this time around against Allison Lundergan Grimes, and Georgia will go Democratic as well with Michelle Nunn, which means even if the Republicans win six seats, they will lose three in those those two states and Kansas, and will not win one of the so called three “guaranteed” states of South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia!

North Carolina with Kay Hagan seems safe, while admittedly, Arkansas, with Mark Pryor, is in more danger.

Expect overall a three seat Senate gain for the Republicans, with the Senate going from 55-45 to 52-48, including a likely four independents, from Maine, Vermont, South Dakota (or Democrat Rick Weiland winning instead of Independent Larry Pressler), and Kansas!

The Democratic Women In Senate Races

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The role of women in the Democratic Party Senate races is becoming much more significant, and at this time, there is a good chance that many will be successful, including the incumbent women and the challenger women.

In the first category, we have Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina, and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire.

In the second category, we have Senate candidates Natalie Tennant in West Virginia, Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, Michelle Nunn of Georgia, and Amanda Curtis of Montana.

At this point, two months before the election, the odds are good for Landrieu, Hagan, Shaheen, Grimes and Nunn, with Tennant and Curtis more likely to fail to be elected to replace retiring Jay Rockefeller and Max Baucus.

With 16 women Democratic Senators, it is likely that we will see  a few more in 2015!

Women Will Decide Senate Control In 2014!

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Women will decide Senate control in 2014, both in candidacies, and in voting!

With the GOP attack on women at work, women and reproductive freedom, women and the issue of rape, and the proper role of women in the family, it is hard to imagine that women will not rise up against the Republican Party, trying to take away its freedom in so many areas.

The religious control over the Republican Party is a danger to all women, even those stupid enough to vote Republican because the men in their lives tell them to vote Republican for Jesus Christ!

IF Michelle Nunn in Georgia, and Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky can win their Senate bids, the Republican Party will not win control of the Senate!

And there is too much expectation that Shelley Moore Capito will defeat Natalie Tennant in West Virginia, when both Senators and the Governor have been Democrats, and Tennant winning a massive victory for Secretary of State in her last campaign, so there is a good chance that the Democrats may keep that seat, denying the GOP a switched seat!

And also, to assume that Susan Collins will keep her seat in Maine over Shanna Bellows, is to assume a lot, since Mainers are individualistic, and the Democrats have an edge in that state in voter registration! It is also an independent state to the extreme, and already has Angus King as an Independent in the Senate. When Collins refused to back a minimum wage increase, her reputation as a moderate, and the so called “best” Republican Senator from the viewpoint of a Democrat, suffered, and it would be better if Shanna Bellows, who has worked for the American Civil Liberties Union, were to win that seat!

So women will decide, both on the ballot, and in voting, what happens to the US Senate in 2015-2016!

The Rise Of The Women Candidates In The Democratic Party!

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Women already have 16 of their gender as Democrats in the US Senate, as compared to four Republicans.

Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire all face challenges, but are likely to win their reelection bids.

At the same time, Michelle Nunn in Georgia, Allison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, Natalie Tennant in West Virginia, and Shenna Bellows in Maine all have reasonable chance to win their races, with Tennant facing another woman, Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia; and Shenna Bellows facing another woman, Senator Susan Collins in Maine.

Meanwhile, in gubernatorial races, Wendy Davis in Texas; Allyson Schwartz in Pennsylvania; and Mary Burke in Wisconsin have competitive races for the Democrats!

The likelihood is that there will be at least 22 women in the Senate, with 18 being Democrats, in the 2015 Senate, and that at least one of the three Democratic women running for Governor will win, and possibly two of them!

Family Names And Connections Matter In Politics And Will Affect 2014 Senate Races!

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Many prognosticators have, seemingly, forgotten the role of family names and connections in politics, and how it will help to affect Senate races in 2014.

Mark Begich in Alaska is the son of a former Congressman.

Mary Landrieu in Louisiana is the daughter and sister of former Mayors of New Orleans.

Mark Pryor in Arkansas is the son of a former Senator.

Michelle Nunn in Georgia is the daughter of a former Senator.

These four races are likely to see Democratic wins, which means the saving of the seats in Alaska, Louisiana, and Arkansas, and the gaining of a seat in Georgia!

Do Not Believe Polls Which Predict GOP Senate Majority!

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So many polls are now predicting that the Republican Party will win control of the US Senate. But polls have been proved wrong before, and the Democrats should not run scared, just run aggressively against the Do Nothing Republicans, similar to what Harry Truman did in 1948!

The Republican Party is wrong on immigration reform; is wrong on the right of workers; is wrong on the treatment of women at work and in their private lives; is wrong on the environment and climate change; is wrong on the need for gun regulation; is wrong on the use of the race card; is wrong on its refusal to promote infrastructure spending; is wrong on its decision to oppose more expenditures on veterans; is wrong in its opposition to ObamaCare; is wrong in its attacks on Social Security and Medicare; is wrong in its efforts to deny voting rights; is wrong in its advocacy of wars everywhere, rather than pursuing diplomacy and peace; is wrong in their anti intellectual, anti science agenda; is wrong in its promotion of theocracy, rather than separation of church and state; and is wrong in its planned strategy to obstruct all judicial and executive nominations and therefore to cripple operation of the courts and government agencies.

The Democrats are likely to keep the following Senators–Mark Pryor of Arkansas; Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; Mark Warner of Virginia; and Mark Begich of Alaska.

They have a good chance of defeating Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, with their nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes; win the open Senate seat in Georgia with Michelle Nunn; win the open Senate seat in Iowa with Bruce Braley; win the open Senate seat in Michigan with Gary Peters; and an even chance to win the open West Virginia seat with Natalie Tennant over Republican Shelley Moore Capito.

The only seats seen likely to switch from D to R are: South Dakota and Montana; while the Democrats have a good shot at winning Kentucky and Georgia. With West Virginia possibly going Republican with Capito, and Maine having a chance that Republican Susan Collins loses to Democrat Shanna Bellows, if such happens, it is no gain by the Republicans.

The best prediction is that the Republicans MIGHT gain two seats, falling four states short of the six needed to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader, with him likely to lose to Grimes in Kentucky, in any case.

The worst case scenario for the Democrats is the loss of South Dakota and Montana; and the loss of West Virginia, therefore meaning a Republican gain of three seats!

And in 2016, with two thirds of the seats being Republicans, the Democrats are sure, in an election where their Democratic Presidential nominee will be heavily favored, to win a large number of additional seats, nearing up to 60 from a possible low of 52 in 2014!

Hope And Reform Possible For Georgia With Michelle Nunn And Jason Carter

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The state of Georgia has the potential to move into the Democratic camp for the offices of Governor and Senator in 2014, with the announcement that Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn (1972-1997), is running for Senator to replace Saxby Chambliss, who is retiring, and Jason Carter, grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, is running for the Governorship that his grandfather held from 1971-1975 before his run for President.

Both are progressive oriented, and would humanize government again in Georgia, which has, sadly, fallen into disarray with the Republican dominance of the state government and Congressional delegation majority in recent years.

The growing Hispanic-Latino vote offers promise for Georgia to turn blue in the future, and quality candidates such as Nunn and Carter bring optimism to those who hope it can happen in 2014!