Marsha Blackburn

Final Projection On The 2018 Midterm Elections: Democratic House And Senate, And Massive Gain In Democratic Governors

The time has come, the day before the Midterm Elections of 2018, to come up with a final projection on the results.

The sense is that the Democrats are in better shape than many polls indicate, although it might be seen by many as fanciful thinking on my part.

But I sense that the Democrats will do very well on Tuesday, as the first time, other than special elections, to register the people’s view on Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

Yes, there is the loyal base, but that is below 40 percent of the nation.

It seems clear that Independents, Suburban men and women, millennials of both genders, African Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans, the Jewish community, and Social Justice Catholics are united in their disgust at the behavior, policies, and corruption of Donald Trump and his administration.

The American people are a good people overall, and one must remember that Donald Trump lost the popular vote massively, but now all that matters is winning more votes than any opponent, and in that regard, Trump and the Republicans who refused to take a stand against him, are on the way to a massive repudiation by the voters.

That does not mean that every nasty Republican will lose or every Democrat that many would wish elected will be successful.

And it could be that, as in 2016, this blogger and author could be way off in his assessment, and I am prepared for that, as much as one can be.

But my inner being tells me the following:

There are so many Republican seats in play in the House of Representatives, including those that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, that one has to believe that many are turning Democratic in this election—including in upstate New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, and California. So expect that while in theory there could be as many as maybe 71 or as few as 15 gains by the Democrats, my feeling is that a safe number is 40-45 seats, which if 45, would make for about 240 Democrats to 195 Republicans, basically a switch from what it is now.

In the US Senate, the Democrats would have to win a net gain of two seats, which now seems attainable. This blogger senses a gain of four Republican seats—Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, and even Texas with Beto O’Rourke, but with a loss of two seats, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Joe Donnelly in Indiana. But that means Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Bill Nelson in Florida would retain their seats, as all three are tough political leaders. So if this all happened, a bit of a miracle, there would be 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, so the Democrats would control and organize the Senate. This prognosis also means the three leading politicians who this author has placed on his “Dream List” of those he wanted defeated, would be—-Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, and Marsha Blackburn.

As far as Governorships, the Democrats have 16 right now, and my projection is that they would gain the Midwest states of Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Kansas, along with Southern states Florida and Georgia, along with New Mexico, Nevada, and New England states Maine and Vermont, giving them a total of 28 states under Democratic control. This also means that Scott Walker and Kris Kobach would not be elected in Wisconsin and Kansas, making my “Dream List” fulfilled for the first five on the list.

On the other hand, it is likely that Steve King will win in Iowa for his Congressional seat, although this blogger believes David Brat in his Richmond, Virginia Congressional seat, will lose.

So overall, all but Steve King on my “Dream List” to defeat would lose, while all five of my “Dream List” to win—Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Gillum, Stacey Abrams, Richard Cordray, and Gavin Newsom, would be triumphant.

This blogger and author may look silly two or three days from now, but that is my final projection, and we shall see!

A “Dream List” To Defeat: Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, Marsha Blackburn, Scott Walker, Kris Kobach, Steve King, Dave Brat

For anyone who is “progressive”, there is a “dream list” of Republicans to defeat.

This would include Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, arguably the most important of all to defeat, as he is a truly disgraceful man and Senator, hated by his own Senate colleagues, including those of his own party. Back in 2016, this blogger thought Cruz was worse than Donald Trump, and still considers him to be purely evil in his demagoguery, and it is hoped Texas will elect Beto O’Rourke, a truly dynamic and inspiring candidate. That would end Ted Cruz’s future quest to run for President in 2020 or 2024.

Governor Rick Scott of Florida, a truly horrific leader for the past eight years, is among the very worst of all Republican governors. He is now trying to win the Senate seat of Bill Nelson, and as a Floridian for the past 30 years, it is hoped that Nelson, who is a moderate, and therefore perfect for the complex politics of Florida, will be able to retire Scott from public life. Otherwise, expect that Scott might seek the Presidency in 2024.

Marsha Blackburn has been a disgraceful Congresswoman from Tennessee, in the same camp as former Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota in her lack of any compassion or empathy. It is hoped former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen will win the seat of retiring Senator Bob Corker.

Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin may be actually worse than Rick Scott, although both are as terrible as one can imagine as state governors. Seeking a third term, it is hoped that Tony Evers, the Democratic nominee and state Superintendent of Instruction, will retire him and his future presidential ambitions.

Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach has spent his career trying to deny the right to vote, and headed a presidential commission working to deny that right, which was disbanded as a failed concept. Now he is running for Kansas Governor against state senator Laura Kelly, and Kansas desperately needs a Democrat in the Governorship after the failed leadership of former Governor and earlier Senator Sam Brownback.

Congressman Steve King of Iowa is probably the most outrageous and despicable Republican in the House of Representatives, an openly white supremacist, racist, nativist demagogue, who has stirred such outrage even among Republicans, that he might be facing a potential vote of expulsion from the House, if he is reelected. J. D. Scholten is his opponent, and it is hoped he can pull off an upset in that Congressional district.

Finally, David Brat, a former Economics Professor, who defeated Eric Cantor, the House Majority Leader in a primary in 2014 in a Richmond, Virginia Congressional District, and is allied with the Tea Party Movement, faces a real challenge from Abaigail Spanberger. Former Republican Senator John Warner just endorsed Spanberger over his own party nominee, so there is hope Brat will be retired from the House of Representatives.

If four or five of these seven were to be defeated, it would be a celebratory result of the Midterm Elections of 2018!

The States That Will Decide Senate Control—Moderate Democrats Bill Nelson Of Florida, Claire McCaskill Of Missouri, Heidi Heitkamp Of North Dakota

Three “Red” States, those who voted for Donald Trump, have moderate Democratic Senators, who face tough challenges to be reelected.

Those states are Florida and Bill Nelson, Missouri and Claire McCaskill, and North Dakota and Heidi Heitkamp.

Progressives are not necessarily happy with these Senators, as they tend to be far less liberal than most Democrats, but there is no way for the Democrats to succeed and be a majority, if they repudiate those who tend to be more centrist.

So the hope is that Nelson, McCaskill, and Heitkamp can keep their seats, as if they do not, there is no chance of Democrats being a majority in the US Senate, and the potential loss of some of the 49 present Democratic seats would be disheartening.

It is ironic that it seems likely that the Democrats will win Nevada with Jacky Rosen, and Arizona with Kyrsten Sinema, but if they lose any or all three of the presently held Democratic seats, they will end up in negative territory.

Of course, IF the Democrats could produce a “miracle” and win with Beto O’Rourke in Texas over Ted Cruz, and in Tennessee with Phil Bredesen over Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn, along with Nevada and Arizona, the loss of the moderate Democrats would be less significant, as long as at least one of those three seats was retained.

Trump, Republicans, Out To Destroy ObamaCare, Suddenly Lie And Deceive Gullible Voters, That They Wish To Preserve Preexisting Condition Coverage!

Donald Trump and the Republican Party have reached such a low in so many ways in the past two years, but now they are going even lower.

They are clearly lying “through their teeth”, openly on camera, and denying that they have been out to destroy the Affordable Care Act or ObamaCare, from the day that it became law in March 2010.

They have tried in Congress a total of 70 times to repeal the law, including the provision for coverage of preexisting conditions, and they have been willing to take away health care from 30 million Americans.

Their Governors, including Scott Walker of Wisconsin, running for a third term, and Rick Scott, leaving the Florida Governorship after two terms, but trying to win a Senate seat, have openly lied and denied that they have worked to deny their own constituents basic health care, including expansion of Medicaid.

To see them and members of Congress look in the camera and argue with reporters that they are wrong in stating that they opposed coverage for preexisting conditions is mind blowing, as they are lying incessantly, and expecting gullible and ill informed voters to believe them.

Health care has become the number one issue for millions of Americans, and they know that the Republican Party has worked to take away health care, and that should be the decisive issue in pushing the Republicans toward loss of the House of Representatives, and many state governorships.

And since Martha McSally, Congresswoman in Arizona, trying to win the open Senate seat; and Senators Dean Heller of Nevada and Ted Cruz of Texas; and Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, trying to win the open Senate seat, all voted to destroy ObamaCare, it can be hoped that maybe, just maybe, that issue will defeat some or all four of them, and allow the Democrats, hopefully, to win a majority of the US Senate.

Key Republicans To Defeat: Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, Marsha Blackburn For Senate, And Scott Walker For Governor

As the midterm elections get closer, this blogger sees four key Republicans that he hopes will be defeated, as he considers them the worst of the worst of all Republicans running for office.

In ranked order, the first would be Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who this blogger thought was more dangerous than even Donald Trump during the 2016 Presidential campaign. Cruz is a true monster, a very evil force, hated even by Republicans, due to his arrogance and cockiness and his despicable voting record. El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke is running a very close race against Cruz, and there are many who think that even “Red” Texas is ready to be flipped to the Democrats and O’Rourke, as part of a growing belief that Texas will be “Blue” in future years. Nothing would satisfy this blogger more than to see Cruz retired from the Senate.

Second on the list would be Florida Governor Rick Scott, leaving the Governorship, but running for the US Senate against Democrat Bill Nelson. Scott has been a horrible Governor, and should have been in federal prison for Medicare and Medicaid fraud, and his eight years as Florida Governor have been a horror, setting Florida back, and making Jeb Bush look far better by comparison. He has doubled his wealth despite a blind trust, and is outspending Nelson, but polls indicate the election is close, and this man should not be given a Senate seat, and the fact that he won two terms as Governor by very small margins gives hope that Nelson can pull it out, hopefully on the coattails of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum.

Third on the list would be Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker, who is after Scott the most disgraceful governor in the past eight years, doing great harm to the past progressive image of the state of the La Follettes, Gaylord Nelson, William Proxmire, and other reform oriented leaders that made Wisconsin a leader in reform. Walker is another arrogant, cocky leader who richly deserves being retired. The Democrats have nominated the State Superintendent of Instruction Tony Evers, and the race is close, based on public opinion polls.

Finally, on this short list is Tennessee Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn, giving up her certain House seat to run for an open Senate seat in Tennessee, created by the retirement of Senator Bob Corker. Blackburn is an obnoxious, insufferable person, as annoying as former Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann was in her years in the House of Representatives. Blackburn, however, has a tough competition in former Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen, who is ahead of her by a good margin, and hopefully, Bredesen, extremely popular, will soundly defeat Marsha Blackburn.

If all four of these Republicans could be defeated, it would be as if one was in heaven, and right now, there is a good chance that all four will lose out, to the benefit of Texas, Florida, Wisconsin, Tennessee, and the nation at large. Additionally, any plans in the future for Cruz or Walker to run for President again, or for Scott to plan to do so, would be gone, if they lose reelection in the case of Cruz and Walker, or election for Scott.

Possible Democratic Gains In US Senate In Midterm Elections Of 2018

The Democrats have a massive challenge ahead, somehow to reelect all ten “Red State” Democratic Senators, but also, at the same time, to gain at least two additional seats and have a majority of 51 or more in the US Senate.

This is crucial to stop the worst of Trump Administration policies, and to insure that any future Supreme Court or Circuit or District Court judgeships not be as extreme right wing, as are occurring now.

Six seats seem open to switching to the Democrats:

Arizona, where Jeff Flake is retiring, and where Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema is ahead of three potential Republican opponents.

Nevada, where Dean Heller is the most endangered Republican Senator up for reelection, challenged by Congresswoman Jacky Rosen, and she has been ahead of Heller in many public opinion polls.

Tennessee, where Bob Corker is retiring, and former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen is seen as ahead of Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn.

Texas, where Ted Cruz is gaining a serious challenge from Congressman Beto O’Rourke of El Paso, and O’Rourke has raised more money than Cruz, who famously is disliked by all his fellow Senators by the testimony of many Democrats and even Republican colleagues.

Mississippi, where Thad Cochran retired suddenly due to bad health, and will have a special election to fill the seat, temporarily filled, and the hope that an upset is possible, as occurred in Alabama last fall, with Doug Jones taking a normal Republican seat. Mike Espy, former Congressman, Secretary of Agriculture for two years under Bill Clinton, and an African American, is seen as having some chance to take the seat, although not seen as likely to win, but a surprise could occur.

Mississippi, where Roger Wicker faces a challenge from state legislator David Baria, Minority Leader of the state legislature, who is seen as having a reasonable chance to win.

The first three of these six seats seem likely to go to the Democrats, which if true, would allow the loss of one of the ten “Red State” Democrats, and still have 51 seats, but that does not leave much room for error.

If all six seats, magically, went Democratic, and no loss of any of the “Red State” Democrats in November occurred, in theory, the Democrats could have as many as 55 seats, but that is clearly a result with very low potential to occur.

One more issue: New Mexico, where Democrat Martin Heinrich should have no trouble winning, but if former Republican Governor and 2016 Libertarian Party Presidential nominee Gary Johnson decides to run for the Senate, creating a three way race, it could put Heinrich’s seat in jeopardy.

So the challenge for Democrats to gain a Senate majority of 51 votes is clouded by overwhelming challenges!

Growing Opportunity For Democrats To Win Texas And Tennessee, Increasing Possibility Of Democratic Senate In 2019

Indications are that the Democrats are strongly favored to win the House of Representatives majority in November 2018, as only 23 seats are needed as a minimum to gain the majority of 218 to control the lower chamber.

The Senate is more difficult as there are 10 Democrats who face election in states won by Donald Trump, but it is now evident that the prospects for the Democrats to gain up to four seats of Republican Senators are growing.

Arizona, where Jeff Flake is retiring, looks like a likely Democratic win, and Nevada, where Dean Heller is much endangered, seems also likely to go Democratic. Kyrsten Sinema, Arizona Congresswoman is favored over any of three potential Republican candidates in Arizona, and Congresswoman Jacky Rosen is at least even with Dean Heller in Nevada.

But now, Texas and Tennessee also look like possible Democratic gains in November.

Beto O’Rourke, Congressman from El Paso, is really giving Ted Cruz a major battle in Texas, and former Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen is leading Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn by ten points for retiring Senator Bob Corker’s seat.

Hopes are that these four seats can be won to overcome the loss of a couple of seats of the ten endangered Democrats from Trump won states.

Growing Possibility Of Three Women On National Tickets Of Both Major Parties For The Presidential Election In November!

It seems more likely by the day that we may witness having three women on the Presidential tickets of the two major political parties in the upcoming Presidential Election of 2016.

Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, may decide to select Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren or Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar as her running mate, which would be a revolutionary act, and likely, a winning combaination.

At the same time, Republican nominee Donald Trump may decide that he must pick a conservative woman to be his running mate, as an attempt to take away the women’s vote from Hillary.

If so, the most likely choices, based on Trump’s statement that he wants someone who is in the DC establishment, would be either Tennessee Congresswoman March Blackburn or Iowa Senator Joni Ernst.

If however, Trump went to the governors in the Republican Party, he could select Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin, who served in Congress before becoming governor in 2011; or former Arizona Governor Jan Brewer; or South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley; or New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez. The latter two are from minority heritage, with Haley having parents from India, and Martinez being Mexican American, but these two have made it quite clear they do not wish to be considered.

The others mentioned have indicated interest, as has former Alaska Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin, the thought of her being tapped a total nightmare, and highly unlikely.

This blogger would bet at this point that Marsha Blackburn or Joni Ernst are the most likely choices, so imagine an all woman Vice Presidential debate of either Blackburn or Ernst against Warren or Klobuchar!

It would be a fascinating and much watched debate, along with the debates between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton!

Open Campaigning To Be Trump’s Running Mate Should Disqualify These People As Unqualified To Be A Heartbeat Away From Oval Office!

First, we have Donald Trump and his disgusting, insulting campaign for President, out to destroy his opponents in the Republican Party, including now, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan.

Now we have open campaigning by some of the worst possible people to be his Vice Presidential running mate, which should, in this blogger’s opinion, automatically disqualify them as unqualified to be a heartbeat away from the Oval Office!

We shall begin with Sarah Palin, the most obnoxious and moronic possible person to be a heartbeat away. but Palin, ready to work to dump Paul Ryan from the Speakership and his own Congresssional seat, has offered herself to Donald Trump as his running mate, as if she did not do enough damage to John McCain eight years ago. All she has done since 2008 is quit the Alaska Governorship, become a reality star, made millions of dollars on books that only stupid people would read, and had several embarrassing family controversies involving her son and her daughter! She might appeal to the lowest common denominator, the mob that cheers Donald on, but the thought of her being a possible President a second time around, is absolutely horrifying!

Then we have Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin, who has been a total disgrace, promoting fracking in her state, which has caused thousands of earthquakes in the past few years; and who allowed the botched execution of a prisoner with drugs that did not work, causing writhing and tremendous pain, going against the concept of avoiding “cruel and unusual punishment”. Now this woman is openly lobbying to be Vice President.

Then we have Tennessee Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn, who causes one’s eyes to roll every time she opens up her mouth, and made clear she is ready to be Vice President if called upon.

And we have former Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, one of the worst Republican Governors in modern times, who also made her pitch for the Vice Presidency.

And finally, we have former Texas Governor Rick Perry, who clearly has come across as lacking brain matter in a serious way, who had bitterly denounced Donald Trump in a manner that drew respect back in the fall of 2015, but now praises Trump, and made clear he would love to be Vice President, god forbid!

The four women mentioned above may be women, but they have NO qualifications to be President or anywhere near it, and pale in comparison to the outstanding qualifications of Democrat Hillary Clinton.

And Perry, well. . . ., haha you know this is Saturday Night Live material!

Who Among Speculated Vice Presidents For Donald Trump Is “Qualified” and “Acceptable” To Be A Heartbeat Away?

Now that Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican Presidential nominee, with the withdrawal of both Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich, there is much speculation as to who might be his Vice Presidential choice, with at least 17 potential candidates.

Of course, there is always the danger of a “wild card”, someone that no sane person would consider for Vice President, but with Trump, you never know!

It is urgent that a decent, competent Vice President be ready and able in case of an emergency, were Trump to be incapacitated or die in office.

Some of the choices are acceptable if not palatable, but many are horrific choices.

As this blogger sees it, the following potential choices are “acceptable” in no special order:

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez

South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley

Ohio Governor John Kasich

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida

Former Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts

This is a short list of six, with the other eleven being totally unacceptable, including:

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin

Florida Governor Rick Scott

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker

Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama

Dr. Ben Carson of Maryland

Former Speaker of The House Newt Gingrich of Georgia

Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa

Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina

Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin

Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee