Congressional Elections Of 2018

The Battle For The Republican Future After Trump

The Republican Party seems likely to collapse in the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2020, suffering their worst defeat since 1964.

Just as the party collapsed in 1912, and again in 1964, now in 2020, four years late–that is, 56 years, not 52 years—a major regeneration of the party in Congress and the competition for the Presidency seems likely.

It looks right now as if the Democrats will win a lot more than the three to four seats needed to win the majority in the Senate, and that the Republicans will lose another minimum ten seats in the House of Representatives, after losing 42 seats in the 2018 midterm Congressional elections.

And the issue arises, who in the party has a likelihood of competing for President in 2024, with of course, always the possibility someone not yet elected or noticed will enter the fray if successful in this upcoming election.

Youth seems likely to triumph, and there are people in the Senate who can be seen as rivals for the future nomination for President, as well as some not in the Senate.

In the Senate, we have some “old timers”, meaning those who have already run for President, including Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Marco Rubio of Florida. All of them are quite horrific as thoughts as future Presidents, particularly the first two, but really, all three.

Then, we have three others, who clearly, plan to run for President—Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Ben Sasse of Nebraska—and all but Sasse are seen as equally totally horrific.

We also have Nikki Haley, former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor, and for awhile, thought to be “somewhat appealing”, but no more, after her recent total loyalty to Donald Trump, and the halo she once had is gone.

We also have the horror of the possibility of Donald Trump Jr. or Ivanka Trump considering a run!

And we have the disgrace of Florida Senator Rick Scott, who should have been in federal prison for Medicare-Medicaid fraud from years ago, and instead went on to two terms as Florida Governor, and now Florida Senator, winning all three races by about one percent, and all three races very suspect as to vote total manipulation. Just looking at him is enough to make one vomit!

And if one looks to have regular vomiting, think of the disgrace of Fox News Channel’s Tucker Carlson, a true Know Nothing moron, with no ethical or moral compass at all!

Then, there is also Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, who both have handled the CoronaVirus Pandemic responsibly, and are perceived as moderates.

And another Governor, who has handled the crisis horribly, Ron DeSantis of Florida, will probably be angling as well for the Presidency, and makes a Floridian like myself disgusted as to the three state wide office holders in the third largest state, being as obnoxious as Rubio, Scott, and DeSantis!

As an “outsider”, a progressive such as myself, if asked, who could one imagine “accepting” as a future President, and with this progressive hiding his eyes behind a total mask, it would have to be Ben Sasse, Larry Hogan, or Charlie Baker, as the rest of the group totally sickens me.

Likely, one of these fourteen will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024, and the odds will be against Sasse, Hogan or Baker, realistically!

The House Of Representatives Likely To Be More “Blue” In 117th Congress

Six months out, it seems highly likely that the House of Representatives, which turned Democratic in the 2018 midterm elections, will be more heavily “Blue”.

The present House balance is 233 Democrats to 196 Republicans, and Independent Justin Amash of Michigan, who left the Republican Party in 2019, and voted for the impeachment of Donald Trump.

There are, presently, six vacant House seats, but four of them being filled soon, and the likelihood is that the two Democratic seats and two Republican seats will remain the same. Two other Republican seats have a vacancy that will not be filled until the November 2020 election.

But if one counts all six vacant House seats, the real balance is 235 Democrats and 200 Republicans, as Justin Amash is leaving Congress as the only Libertarian member. So effectively, the balance is what it was after Election Day in November 2018. Republicans would need a net gain of 18 seats to come back to the majority, and no polls show that happening.

More women and minorities were elected as Democrats than ever before in the House of Representatives, while the Republicans remain mostly white men.

There were big gains, a total of 41 new members of the Democratic majority, and California, the largest delegation, dropped to only 7 Republicans.

The Democrats had their biggest victory since 1974, and won the popular vote by 8.6 percent, an all time high for a party that had been in the minority previously. More than half the population voted, the highest percentage in a midterm election since 1914.

Besides California’s loss of 7 Republican seat, the following states lost multiple GOP seats:

Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Texas–2 seats each

New York, Virginia–3 seats each

New Jersey, Pennsylvania–4 seats each

21 states, altogether, lost 42 Republican seats, and it now seems likely that Democrats will gain more seats in Florida, Illinois, Texas, New York, Virginia, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, with the estimate being at least 10 more seats, leading to a possible majority as high as 245-190, after a few likely Republican gains.

The Growing Danger Of 2018 And 2020 Elections Being Hacked By Russians And Others With Technological Expertise

It is now clear as the New Year of 2018 begins that America is endangered by the strong likelihood that the midterm Congressional Elections of 2018 and the Presidential Election of 2020 could be subjected to the kind of illegal activities clearly engaged in by Russians, who helped to fix the election results in many states in 2016.

It seems, based on public opinion polls, that the Democrats are heavily favored to gain control of the House of Representatives in 2018, and have a good chance to gain the two seats needed to have control of the US Senate as well.

Also, in many states, the Democrats, at this point, are favored to gain control of Governorships and state legislatures in 2018, an important step toward having an edge in reapportionment of seats in the state legislatures, and in the House of Representatives, after the National Census is conducted in April 2020, affecting the political balance in the entire upcoming decade.

It is not even just Russians, but in theory, with technological expertise, hackers from many unfriendly nations, including China, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan and others, could manipulate and undermine our American democracy.

Our best technological experts have a massive job ahead of them, and it is clear that Donald Trump and the Republican Party are not actively involved in insuring fair elections for either 2018 or 2020, and that Trump will do anything to regain power for another four years, if somehow, he is able to overcome the charges mounting against him.

Trump has no ethics, morals, or scruples, and his party has been willing to go along with him, with only a few rare exceptions of members in both houses of Congress willing to defy him in his lust for absolute power, and the breakdown of the whole American democratic system.

3 Moderate Republicans To Retire (Ileana Ros Lethinen Of Florida, Dave Reichart Of Washington, Charlie Dent Of Pennsylvania), Opening Up Seats To Democratic Gains

Three members of the House of Representatives who are moderates, and who have had strong doubts about Donald Trump all along, have decided to “jump ship”. and not run for reelection in 2018.

In so doing, they, and others who might do the same, are demonstrating the problem of the future of the Republican Party, that it is in danger of becoming an extremist right wing party, which is anti government and the traditions of the Republican Party.

Florida Congresswoman Ileana Ros Lehtinen, Washington Congressman Dave Reichart, and Pennsylvania Congressman Charlie Dent have all decided not to run for reelection, and their loss is not good for the GOP future.

All three are seen as likely to back an impeachment move against Donald Trump, so they have an opportunity to become historic figures in the process of bringing Trump down over the next months.

With Trump repudiating Establishment Republican leadership (Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell), and making a deal with Democrats and moderate Republicans on aid for Hurricane Harvey and a three month extension of the debt limit, avoiding a crisis at the end of September, it is clear that civil war is developing in the Republican Party.

This includes the right wing extremists of the House Freedom Caucus working to form a third party movement, splintering the party into factions that bode ill for the party future in 2018 and beyond.

Jon Ossoff Loses Georgia Race, But All Four Special Elections Show GOP Edge Dramatically Cut From Elections In November 2016

All of the four Congressional special elections, due to sitting Republican Congressmen taking positions in the Trump Administration, were won by Republicans, but in all four districts, the margin of victory was much closer than the races for those seats in November 2016.

It is disappointing that Jon Ossoff lost the race in the Georgia Congressional District, but Karen Handel’s margin of victory is one fifth what it was for Tom Price last year.

The same for Ryan Zinke’s seat in Montana; Mike Pompeo’s seat in Kansas; and also Nick Mulvaney’s seat in South Carolina.

But one must realize all four districts are strong Red districts, so the massive narrowing of the margin of victory is a major story.

The reality is that 23 Congressional districts with Republican wins in 2016 were also Congressional districts won by Hillary Clinton, and none of these four special elections were among those 23 districts.

So it comes down to the reality that IF Democrats can win those Clinton districts, with all of the discontent and turmoil over Donald Trump and the Republican agenda, they would be on the way to a likely gain of the House of Representatives majority in 2018, whereby 24 seats need to be gained.

But to do so, the Democrats must be much more aggressive in their campaigning, and must vigorously work to recruit the best possible candidates, so that they can revive their fortunes before the Presidential Election of 2020.

This is NOT the time to be downcast over the Ossoff defeat, but to applaud how he cut down the Republican party edge in the district by about 19 points, and mobilized thousands of people to become engaged in politics, who had never done so before.

Confidence and optimism are the key words to be emphasized and pursued!

The 38th Earth Day: And Donald Trump Has Declared War On The Environment And Science!

Saturday, April 22, is Earth Day, first declared by Richard Nixon in 1970.

Richard Nixon turned out to be one of the great environmental Presidents, despite his Watergate Scandal.

So was Jimmy Carter, with the best one term record on the environment. Also outstanding on the environment was Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon B. Johnson.

Barack Obama reached the few on the top of the list with his magnificent advancements, which sadly, is being destroyed to a great extent by Donald Trump.

Ronald Reagan was a horrible person on the environment, but Trump is rapidly moving him from the bottom of the modern Presidents on the environment.

Trump has hired Scott Pruitt head of the Environmental Protection Agency, the agency created by Nixon and the Democratic Congress, and Pruitt is like putting a fox in a chicken coop, and is out to destroy and defund the EPA entirely in the next couple of years.

The American people must demand that this war on the environment be stopped, as for a government to be unconcerned about clean air, clean water, and safe environmental conditions at work is a crime against humanity, really equivalent of a war crime, as it indicates no concern about the health and well being of the American people.

Theodore Roosevelt, our greatest environmental President, would be furious if he knew what his Republican Party has done, declare war on nature for the selfish benefit of corrupt corporations only interested in making profits.

Donald Trump is criminal for declaring war on the environment and science, and must be held accountable for the damage he has wrought already.

It should be one of the impeachment charges brought against him in a future confrontation between the President and the Congress, hopefully brought about in 2018 by a Democratic controlled House of Representatives.

Even if that fails to occur, progressives must hold Trump accountable in history for his crimes against the environment!

Trump Drops To 35 Percent In Gallup Poll, With 59 Percent Negative Toward His Presidency

Donald Trump is falling fast in the polls, hitting an all time low for a new President after 70 days, of only 35 percent in the latest Gallup poll.

Trump is striking out at the House Freedom Caucus, threatening primary challengers to the extreme right wing group, not realizing that in their gerrymandered districts, they are likely to beat any primary opponents in 2018.

Trump talks about cooperating with Democrats, but why would they, since he wishes to destroy Obama Care, and has forced an extreme right wing judge, Neil Gorsuch, on them, with the potential for this man who seems to be to the right of Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, to be on the Court for the next 30 or more years, as he is only 49.

59 percent in the latest Gallup poll have a negative attitude toward Trump, and his second Muslim Ban has again been held up in the courts.

His Secretary of the Interior, Ryan Zinke, has admitted that building a Mexico Wall will be a major challenge due to topography, including the Rio Grande River in Texas.

And the Russian connection is being ratcheted up by the Senate Intelligence Committee headed by Republican Richard Burr and Democrat Mark Warner.

Finally, there are reports that former National Security Adviser General Michael Flynn, is ready to testify in exchange for immunity from prosecution so it now seems likely that Donald Trump will NOT finish his term, and that Mike Pence will become President during this term.

Joe Biden Presidential Bid In 2020?

Hard to believe, but Vice President Joe Biden is actually considering the possibility of running again for President in 2020, when he would be 78 years of age.

Biden is leaving public life on January 20, after 44 years of service, close to an all time record, with 36 years as Delaware Senator and 8 years as a very active, involved, and engaged Vice President, who had a major impact on the office.

Everyone loves Joe Biden, even Republicans, who saluted him in a Senate honoring of him this week, as Biden was able, even under President Obama, to cross the aisle and gain some support, even when Republicans were reluctant to work with the President.

Since the election, the feeling has developed that Biden, the “poorest US Senator” in his past, and with working class roots, and knowing how to appeal to the white working class, would have been able to bridge the difference in votes in Pennsylvania (the state he grew up in), Michigan and Wisconsin, and pulled out victory had he been the Democratic Presidential nominee.

If Biden’s son, Beau Biden, had not died in May 2015, it is believed that Joe would have run against Hillary Clinton, and might have been able to defeat her, and even Bernie Sanders, for the nomination, something, however, we will never be sure of, but a thought that will linger.

Of course, many liberals and Democrats will argue that Joe Biden is too old to run again, and that his record in the Senate was not as liberal as Bernie Sanders, and more in line with the record of Hillary Clinton, and that he cannot please millennials and the strong Left in the Democratic Party, which wants new and more progressive leadership in the future.

It is clear that if Biden ran, his warts and shortcomings would be emphasized, including originally supporting the Iraq War, as Hillary Clinton did, and the struggle for the nomination would not be easy, and one wonders if he could actually defeat Donald Trump if Trump ran for reelection.

What is clear now is that there is no way to know the future, after seeing Presidents, including John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and now Donald Trump overcome many hurdles that few thought they could to win the Presidency, so who can say that a well loved, working class guy like Joe Biden at the age of 78, could not win the White House?

This is what makes following American politics so exciting, and also, get this, a Senate seat looks ready to open, as Democratic Senator Thomas Carper, finishing his third term in 2018, is rumored to be planning to retire, so in theory, and by some rumors, Joe Biden could run to return to the Senate and add to his six terms and 36 years in the Senate, and therefore be in elective office, at the time of a Presidential campaign in 2020!

Democrats Only Gain 6 House Seats, 2 Senate Seats In 2016 Elections: Can They Recover In 2018?

The Democratic Party, which looked on the edge of becoming the dominant party in America, at least on the Presidential level, now is faced with the possibility of a long term status as the party that can win the coast lines and the majority of the popular vote for President, but still lose the Electoral College again and again, with twice in the past generation, 2000 and now 2016.

By all estimates, in the long run, whatever that means, the demographic changes in America will insure that the Democrats will eventually have a tremendous advantage, but for now, the situation is gloomy, as the Democrats only gained 6 House seats and 2 Senate seats, and the loss of Russ Feingold in Wisconsin and Evan Bayh in Indiana, when both were heavily favored, was startling.

So the job is to recruit a future generation of leadership on the state level as well as the national level, and unfortunately, the Democrats on the national level have just shot themselves in the foot, by electing once again the same old team (all in their mid 70s) of Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and James Clyburn to leadership of their party in the House of Representatives.

And picking an African American and first Muslim in Congress, Keith Ellison of Minnesota, as the Democratic National Chairman, which now seems inevitable with Howard Dean withdrawing from the race, is not exactly the greatest choice either.

So can the Democrats recover in 2018? They likely would gain some seats in the House of Representatives, but not control, and the Senate will be almost impossible not to lose seats, as 25 of 33 seats up for election are Democratic seats, so the future is gloomy, as the situation now seems.

Three Rising Stars In The Democratic Party: Debbie Wasserman Schultz, And Julian And Joaquin Castro!

As one looks ahead to the future beyond 2014, one can see some bright rising stars in the Democratic Party, who are seen as likely to move up in American politics beyond where they are right now in 2014.

One is Democratic National Chairwoman, Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz of South Florida, who has been speculated about as a future Speaker of the House, but is now considered a likely choice for the Democrats to challenge Republican Senator Marco Rubio in 2016, giving up her chance to accomplish her well known earlier goal. This would be a massive battle of two South Florida “giants” for the Senate seat of the third largest state in America!

Wasserman Schultz would be a “dynamite” figure in the US Senate, a younger version of Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, were she to be elected to the upper chamber.

But if not successful, Wasserman Schultz could be a cabinet member under the next Democratic President, whoever that might be, which is still a highly likely situation to have the Democrats retain the White House in 2016.

Additionally, the Castro Brothers of Texas, Julian and Joaquin, are definite rising stars, with the likelihood that Mayor Julian Castro of San Antonio, could be the Vice Presidential running mate of ANY Democratic Presidential nominee in 2016, being 42 years old by then. He is very impressive as the Mayor of the sixth largest city in America, and can assist in turning Texas “blue”, which is highly likely as the decade moves on.

Meanwhile, his identical twin brother, Joaquin, now a member of the House of Representatives, is seen as likely to challenge Senator Ted Cruz in 2018, and to have a good chance to defeat the highly controversial Senator. This would be the ultimate Latino vs Latino challenge, but with the reality that Mexican Americans in Texas and nationally far outweigh the percentage of Cuban Americans. so Castro being from a group that is about 17 times the size of Cuban Americans, such as Cruz and Marco Rubio, is not to be regarded as something that can be ignored.

So if fortune works out in a good way, we should have Senator Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida and Vice President Julian Castro of Texas elected in 2016, and Senator Joaquin Castro of Texas elected in 2018. And we might see the demise of Senators Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas in 2016 and 2018 respectively!