The Battle For The Republican Future After Trump

The Republican Party seems likely to collapse in the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2020, suffering their worst defeat since 1964.

Just as the party collapsed in 1912, and again in 1964, now in 2020, four years late–that is, 56 years, not 52 years—a major regeneration of the party in Congress and the competition for the Presidency seems likely.

It looks right now as if the Democrats will win a lot more than the three to four seats needed to win the majority in the Senate, and that the Republicans will lose another minimum ten seats in the House of Representatives, after losing 42 seats in the 2018 midterm Congressional elections.

And the issue arises, who in the party has a likelihood of competing for President in 2024, with of course, always the possibility someone not yet elected or noticed will enter the fray if successful in this upcoming election.

Youth seems likely to triumph, and there are people in the Senate who can be seen as rivals for the future nomination for President, as well as some not in the Senate.

In the Senate, we have some “old timers”, meaning those who have already run for President, including Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Marco Rubio of Florida. All of them are quite horrific as thoughts as future Presidents, particularly the first two, but really, all three.

Then, we have three others, who clearly, plan to run for President—Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Ben Sasse of Nebraska—and all but Sasse are seen as equally totally horrific.

We also have Nikki Haley, former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor, and for awhile, thought to be “somewhat appealing”, but no more, after her recent total loyalty to Donald Trump, and the halo she once had is gone.

We also have the horror of the possibility of Donald Trump Jr. or Ivanka Trump considering a run!

And we have the disgrace of Florida Senator Rick Scott, who should have been in federal prison for Medicare-Medicaid fraud from years ago, and instead went on to two terms as Florida Governor, and now Florida Senator, winning all three races by about one percent, and all three races very suspect as to vote total manipulation. Just looking at him is enough to make one vomit!

And if one looks to have regular vomiting, think of the disgrace of Fox News Channel’s Tucker Carlson, a true Know Nothing moron, with no ethical or moral compass at all!

Then, there is also Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, who both have handled the CoronaVirus Pandemic responsibly, and are perceived as moderates.

And another Governor, who has handled the crisis horribly, Ron DeSantis of Florida, will probably be angling as well for the Presidency, and makes a Floridian like myself disgusted as to the three state wide office holders in the third largest state, being as obnoxious as Rubio, Scott, and DeSantis!

Of course, if Trump is reelected, Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo might also enter the race, but it is assumed for this article that Trump will lose!

As an “outsider”, a progressive such as myself, if asked, who could one imagine “accepting” as a future President, and with this progressive hiding his eyes behind a total mask, it would have to be Ben Sasse, Larry Hogan, or Charlie Baker, as the rest of the group totally sickens me.

Likely, one of these sixteen will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024, and the odds will be against Sasse, Hogan or Baker, realistically!

4 comments on “The Battle For The Republican Future After Trump

  1. D August 8, 2020 10:29 am

    Ronald writes, “Just as the [Republican Party] collapsed in 1912, and again in 1964, now in 2020, four years late–that is, 56 years, not 52 years—a major regeneration of the party in Congress and the competition for the Presidency seems likely.”

    In the 1918 midterm elections, on the watch of two-term Democratic incumbent U.S. president Woodrow Wilson, the Republicans won majority pickups of both houses of Congress. In 1920, they won a Republican pickup of the presidency of the United States.

    In 1966, two years after the Democratic landslide of Lyndon Johnson having won a full term (to the tune of 44 states, District of Columbia, and 486 electoral votes), the Republicans won the midterm elections with overall gains which included a net +47 seats in the U.S. House.

    The 1912 Republican loss of the presidency was the worst unseating of an incumbent U.S. president, as William Howard Taft went from having carried 29 of 46 states, when he prevailed in 1908, down to just 2 (Utah and Vermont, which carried GOP in all cycles from 1856 to 1960 and 1968 to 1988). But, this was during a Republican realigning period of the presidency that kicked off in 1896, when the party won 7 of 9 cycles from that point up until 1928.

    The 1964 Republican loss of the presidency combined with one year following the assassination of Democratic incumbent and 35th U.S. president John Kennedy—and many have said the nation’s people (and voters) were in no mood to have three U.S. presidents in around 15 months—as well as this period with the Democrats dominant in having won 7 of 9 presidential-election cycles from 1932 to 1964. The Vietnam War ended up being the catalyst for the downfall of the Johnson presidency—even though he delivered on Medicare and the Civil Rights Act of 1964—and it ushered in a realignment of the presidency for the Republicans which ran 7 of 10 cycles from 1968 to 2004.

    * * * * * * * * * * *

    Ronald also writes, “Likely, one of these fourteen will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024, and the odds will be against [Nebraska U.S. senator Ben] Sasse, [Maryland governor Larry] Hogan or [Massachusetts governor Charlie] Baker, realistically!”

    The only one on your list I think has any potential is Missouri U.S. senator Josh Hawley. I don’t think he will run in 2024. An example why is that I saw some mention by him of Congress needing to deliver much more substantially with a stimulus for the nation’s citizens. This was in the period with the CARES Act. My response, at that time, was that Hawley having unseated Claire McCaskill, in the 2018 midterm elections, was the right call by 2018 Missouri voters because she likely would not have offered such idea—and that was reasonable to conclude that he, economically, is more to the left than her. (The generally smarter of today’s politicians are the ones who do actually connect, at least to some extent, with the voting electorate. Most incumbents, because they have been in office too long and are stuck in their D.C. bubble, do not.)

    I don’t take Election 2024 as a serious possibility for a Republican pickup of the presidency. I think the Republicans—and I include Missouri’s Josh Hawley—will have to wait until at least 2028 for the next election cycle in which the White House switches to their party. (An opposition party, which fails to unseat an incumbent party, usually offers up a sacrificial lamb of a nominee. Josh Hawley may be smarter than that.)

    I am referring to realigning periods in which the presidency goes to one party, the dominant party, over a period of 30-plus years.

    If Election 2020 delivers a Democratic pickup of the presidency, and it would be with the unseating of a Republican incumbent U.S. president, then it will confirm Election 2008 was the starting point of a realigning period favoring the Democratic Party. (The Iraq War, on the watch of then-Republican U.S. president George W. Bush, was the catalyst for ushering in a Democratic realignment of the presidency in 2008.)

    In all presidential realigning periods, a party which won 3 of 4 election cycles turned out to be the dominant party during that time. The party which one just 1 of 4 was not able to prevent that period of a presidential realignment for the advantaged party.

    Elections 2020 and 2024, I sense, will be won by the Democrats. And if you do a little math exercise, you can note it would run a 40-year parallel to the 1968 to 1984 period. Republicans won 4 of 5 cycles between 1968 to 1984. The in-between cycle, 1976, was the 1 of 5 won by the Democrats. And we may experience it with this 2008 to 2024 period. It would be the Democrats having won 4 of 5 cycles. The in-between cycle, 2016, would turn out to be the 1 of 5 won by the Republicans.

    Even though these presidential realignment periods meet with the approval of people who prefer or self-identify with that dominant party, the minority party can very well benefit with the compromise of being dominant with majority control of Congress.

    During the 1968 to 2004 Republican presidential realignment, with that party dominant in the White House years of 1969 to 2008, the Democrats had the U.S. House from 1969 to 1994 and with the last two years of that period, 2007 and 2008. So, the minority Democrats had the U.S. House in 28 of 40 years. Also during this Republican presidential realignment, the Democrats had the U.S. Senate from 1969 to 1980, again from 1987 to 1994, for a year and half from 2001 to 2002, and again from 2007 to 2008. So, the minority Democrats had the U.S. Senate in 23 to 23.5 of those 40 years.

    The Democrats are proud of the fact that, in the more recent of United States presidential elections, they won the U.S. Popular Vote in all since 1992 with exception of 2004. So, they won the U.S. Popular Vote in 6 of the last 7 presidential-election cycles. Because Republican incumbent Donald Trump is underperforming in the polls just about everywhere, the Democrats will win on this count again here in 2020. So, one can adjust that to 7 of 8 presidential-election cycles. Since the first midterm, which followed Election 1992, and that was in 1994, the period of 1993 to 2020 saw the Republicans dominant in the U.S. House between 1995 to 2006 and 2011 to 2018. That was period of 20 of 28 years. The Republicans held the U.S. Senate for a majority of this period, specifically from 1995 to 2001 and 2003 to 2006 and 2015 to 2020. That is a period of 17 to 17.5 of 28 years.

    * * * * * * * * * *

    I sense the Republicans, as the minority party during this presidential realigning period, are going to end up having to rebuild their party. While the compromise of being dominant with Congress may be nice (and, yes, a U.S. president Joe Biden is the type of corporatist Democrat who would make sure to re-empower the Republicans with the Congress), a party wants U.S. President before anything else. And, in this situation, the Republicans will figure out they have no choice.

  2. Jeffrey G Moebus August 10, 2020 7:50 am

    You know what, Doc? Even if there is an election in November and an inauguration in January, regardless of who “wins,” there is a very good probability that these “United States” of America won’t exist in 2024.

    Impossible, You say? What was the status of the USSR and European Communism in the form of the Warsaw Bloc in 1987? And what was it in 1991?

    A lot can happen in four years.

  3. Ronald August 10, 2020 7:57 am

    Jeffrey, you are so funny, and already backing off on your prediction of gloom and doom, lol, hahaha!

    The difference is, Jeffrey, the Soviet Union was a dictatorship that was extremely corrupt, and the whole history of eastern Europe and Russia is extremely different than the United States history.

    Be assured the US will be around in 2024 and after under a Democratic President and administration, which will erase much of the harm done under conservatives and Republicans in the past half century!

  4. Jeffrey G Moebus August 10, 2020 8:43 am

    How am i backing off my predictions of doom and gloom? i prefaced that comment with “Even if there is an election in November…. .” The operative word here is “IF,” and at this point, it is still a very bif “IF.”

    What do You think would happen if this Election2020’s “October Surprise” was a second 9/11? Or widespread, out-of-control and uncontrollable riots and looting in several major metropolitan cities?
    Or a third wave of C-19 that makes what New York went thru early on just a warm-up?

    And the USSR was more “corrupt” than the United States is now? Now it’s my turn to LoL, HaHaHa. The USSR only had 70 years at concentrating political, economic, and social power among a ruling elite. The USA has been at it for at least 233 years this coming September 17, when the Boyz in Philadelphia pulled off their coup d’etat and effectively cancelled the Declaration of Independence with their new Constitution.

    And what about the history of the United States is so different from that of Russia or the former Warsaw Bloc [or any other Nation, or, more particularly, any Empire] that exempts it from ultimately being destroyed?

    Is it that America is somehow different from all those other nations and Empires, and not subject to ultimate decline and fall after its rise and time at the top of the heap?

    Is that what is meant by America’s “exceptionalism”?

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