Public Opinion Polls

President Vs. Congress: Three Times As Popular!

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Opponents have made a big deal over the fact that President Barack Obama had fallen down to 39 percent in public opinion ratings over the last week, after the stock market gyrations and the Standard and Poor’s downgrading of US debt after the Debt Ceiling Crisis.

But now, Obama has gone back up to 41 percent in new polls, while the Congress, with a Republican House majority, has slipped from 14 percent positive rating to 13 percent, an all time low!

And this comes upon the earlier poll that shows that the Democrats have a seven point edge on the Republicans in a generic matchup for the 2012 Congressional elections.

So the GOP has actually lost public support at a crucial time, and it is involved in a internal struggle between Mainstream Republicans such as Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, and the Tea Party Republicans such as Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann for the soul of the party.

This is only good for President Obama, as columnist Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post points out today in his column!

The Mid Third Year First Term Presidential Slump: Perfectly Normal!

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When one looks at the history of the Presidency, in the third year of the first term of a President, it is very normal that he suffers a loss in public opinion support, and is usually the low point of his first term, but often has had no effect on future electoral success.

Witness the following examples:

1, Franklin D. Roosevelt in his third year (1935) was denounced as a socialist, a communist, a fascist, and every other dirty name by opponents, including the American LIberty League, Huey Long, Dr. Francis Townsend, Father Charles Coughlin, and others. He went on to a smashing reelection victory, winning all but two states in 1936.

2. Harry Truman in 1947 was very unpopular and predicted to have no chance at reelection, particularly with the opposition party in control of Congress, and some members of his party suggesting he resign, because of the vote of no confidence represented by the Republican 80th Congress. He proceeded to win a miracle upset victory for reelection!

3. John F. Kennedy in 1963 was in deep trouble in the South because of his stand on civil rights, and he was on a campaign swing in the South, trying to mend fences, when he was assassinated.

4. Richard Nixon was at a low point in 1971 over the Vietnam War, with the Pentagon Papers being revealed and attempts of Congress to end the war by cutting funds. It was fear that his Democratic opponent might be strong that convinced Nixon operatives to become involved in the Watergate scandal, but Nixon won all states but one in 1972.

5. Ronald Reagan in 1983 had the highest unemployment rate since FDR, and low public opinion ratings similar to those of Barack Obama now (low 40s), but went on to win all but one state in 1984.

6. Bill Clinton had low public opinion ratings in 1995, particularly after the Republicans took over both houses of Congress, but won reelection in 1996.

7. George W. Bush had a lot of opposition and criticism about the war in Iraq in 2003, but went on to win reelection in 2004.

So it is not a danger sign that Barack Obama is suffering a low point in the summer of 2011, as despite many problems, he still has strong popular support personally, and the opposition Republicans are being blamed by many for the Debt Ceiling Crisis and its aftermath!

So don’t count the President out by any means, as the odds still strongly favor his reelection in 2012!

Republican Party Seemingly On Suicide Mission, Based On Latest Poll On Presidential Frontrunners!

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The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll shows strong evidence that the Republican Party is on a suicide mission regarding the 2012 Presidential Election.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a wide lead over all others, and is praised for his experience, leadership, and good chance to compete with and defeat President Obama.

And yet, the Tea Party Movement within the party is very unhappy with Romney, and were he to be the nominee, they would be a major headache and impediment in his Presidential campaign!

Amazingly, a “non candidate”, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, runs second, and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann runs third in the poll. If Palin is not counted in the poll, Bachmann moves up to second, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul ends up third, with no one else in double digits!

However, Texas Governor Rick Perry, a possible candidate who is flirting with the idea of running, and claims God is behind him, has the next most support with 8 percent.

At this point, Tim Pawlenty, former Governor of Minnesota, and Jon Huntsman, former Governor of Utah, have been total flops, with Pawlenty having only 2 percent support, and Huntsman only 3 percent. It was felt just a couple of months ago that only these two men had a real shot at the nomination, other than Romney, but it has not turned out that way at all!

Instead, it is Tea Party radicals such as Palin, Bachmann and Perry that are competing with Romney, and that is becoming a point of fear and some hysteria among establishment Republicans, who can sense that their party is being destroyed by what is best described as the “cancer” of the Tea Party Movement in their midst!

Obama, The Middle Class, And Small Business: Poll Indicate Widespread Support For The President!

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A new Washington Post-ABC News Poll indicates that the middle class and small businessmen see President Obama as supportive of their interests.

At the same time, the polls indicate that Congressional Republicans are perceived as in league with Wall Street financial institutions and large business corporations.

The middle class issue is won by Obama by 53 -35, while the small business question sees a 48-39 lead for the President.

Meanwhile, majorities across party lines see the Republicans as more concerned about big business and Wall Street.

One would think this would reverberate in Obama’s favor as the country tries to deal with the Debt Ceiling crisis, and will backfire on the Republicans, because the vast majority of the country is not in agreement with the Tea Party Movement that is controlling the House of Representatives majority, to the chagrin of Speaker John Boehner, although he has carefully avoided any comments on the subject!

Quinnipiac Polls Shows Dangers To Mitt Romney In Republican Presidential Race

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Mitt Romney seems to many to be the only hope for “moderate” Establishment Republicans, as at least for now, Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty are both floundering in the polls.

But Romney actually faces great dangers, as Michele Bachmann is surging, as shown in the most recent Quinnipiac poll, having 14 percent to Romney’s 25 percent. Also, two non-candidates, Sarah Palin and Rick Perry follow, with Palin having 12 percent and Perry 10 percent, both considered far Right as Bachmann is!

Also, Barack Obama polls ahead of all GOP opponents for the Presidency, with a lead of 6 points over Romney, 12 points over Bachmann, 19 points over Palin, and 13 percent over Perry!

Obama’s greatest support is among women, leading Romney by 11 points, and Bachmann by 17 points! Among men, Romney only leads Obama by ONE point, and Obama leads Bachmann among men by EIGHT percent! And among independents, Romney leads Obama by two points, but Obama is ahead against all others, by 10 over Perry, three over Bachmann, and by 17 over Palin.

It is clear that the only real hope, as things stand, for the Republican Party, is to nominate Mitt Romney and hope for the best, but even Romney seems weak, and has a major challenge overcoming the Tea Party radicals led by Michele Bachmann, and possibly also Sarah Palin and Rick Perry!

So these are indeed difficult times for the Republican Party, not that they don’t deserve it!

Gay Marriage And The Supreme Court: Anthony Kennedy The Crucial Vote!

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In 1967, the US Supreme Court issued a decision in Loving V. Virginia, declaring interracial marriage constitutional. At the time, there was still widespread feeling among the American people, particularly whites, that interracial marriage should not be allowed, with three out of four in a 1968 poll so declaring. And nearly the same percentage, 73 percent, of all races felt the same way in 1968.

It is clear, also, that a majority of people, particularly whites, were not supportive of the Supreme Court decision in 1954, Brown V. Board of Education, which mandated the end of segregation of the races in public education.

Often, the Supreme Court is ahead of the country in formulating change, and of course, conservatives resent that. But without the Court intervening, progress would be slower or completely halted.

Therefore, with the decision of New York State to allow gay marriage, it is time for gay rights advocates to bring a case to the higher court!

But, of course, there is fear that the conservative Court would rule against it, but that is seen as highly unlikely.

No one can be sure how Justices would vote, but even if one considers that Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Chief Justice John Roberts might vote against, the odds are that Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Stephen Breyer, and Ruth Bader Ginsberg would vote in favor.

That leaves Justice Anthony Kennedy, the true centrist on the Court, who more often votes with the conservatives, but often sides with the liberals. And when one considers that Kennedy was the decisive vote in Lawrence V. Texas in 2003, granting privacy rights to gay couples, one has hope that he would continue to support gay rights, including marriage.

Kennedy also supported the rights of gays to stop being treated as a group deserving discrimination in the Colorado Constitution in Romer V. Evans in 1996, and also in a Circuit Court case in 1980, he showed concern about mistreatment of gays.

The timing is crucial, as Ruth Bader Ginsberg may leave the Court soon, and in the next term in office, if a Republican won the White House, both Ginsberg and Kennedy might be replaced, based on their ages, and the opportunity for a Supreme Court decision in favor of gay marriage might have passed!

And remember, unlike interracial marriage, a majority of Americans in a recent poll support the concept of gay marriage, a massive switch from just a few years ago!

So bring on a Supreme Court case and soon!

The Collapse Of The “Bully Governors” In Public Opinion Polls

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The “Bully” Governors, Republicans in six states, have seen a total collapse of public opinion toward their hard line, mean spirited governing method of arrogance, anti labor, anti education, anti health care, anti elderly, anti poor, anti children initiatives, and sense of entitlement to do whatever the hell they want without consideration of its effect on their states! The Quinnipiac polls show tremendous declines by all six in ratings!

Governor Chris Christie is down to 44 percent support, and yet, there are those who want him to run for President! And he had the gall to tell a constituent in a public meeting that it was none of her business why he sent his children to private schools while cutting funding for public schools in New Jersey!

Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, out to destroy public workers rights and social needs of the state’s population, has a public opinion rating of 39 percent!

Ohio Governor John Kasich is down to 37 percent, while Governor Rick Snyder of Michigan is down to 35 percent!

Maine Governor Paul LePage has a public opinion rating of 31 percent, and has alienated many tourists by eliminating a painting portraying the struggle of organized labor historically in the Labor Department Building in Portland. He has an attitude of being in your face constantly, and has upset more than two thirds of the state by his arrogance and lack of diplomacy and tact in dealing with the news media and citizens!

And the all time low rating goes to the disgraceful Governor Rick Scott of Florida, with 29 percent rating, undermining education and health care in the state, and convincing those college professors who can leave the state, along with other talented people, that the pastures are better elsewhere, and that their children will not be able to get a decent education in the Sunshine State after he has destroyed it! The author personally knows two colleagues with young children who have decided to go elsewhere, and get out before the state totally collapses in regards to social services!

The only good thing about all this is the following:

All six states–New Jersey, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Maine and Florida–went Democratic for Barack Obama, and with the kind of misgoverning of these “Bully” Governors, and the alienation being shown in public opinion polls in all six states, the likelihood is that all six states should remain Democratic, and hopefully, reverse their mistakes on the Governorships in New Jersey in 2013 and the other five states in 2014!

The only question is how the unfortunate citizenry of these states will survive the assaults on them by the “Bully” Governors!

Tim Pawlenty And “Co-Conspirators” Mitt Romney And Barack Obama

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Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is striking out in his Presidential campaign, rapidly becoming the second Republican in the race to implode, after Newt Gingrich.

Pawlenty was critical of Romney on “Obamney Care”, as he calls the former Massachusetts Governor’s health care plan, in a Fox News interview.

But then, in the New Hampshire Presidential debate, when given an opportunity to say the same thing to Romney face to face, Pawlenty came across as weak and ineffective, as he refused to do just that.

This past few days, Pawlenty has been trying to undo the damage, but instead he has made things worse.

His new statement is that Romney and Obama are “co-conspirators” on health care!

What a ridiculous and preposterous statement, and all it does is make it ever harder for Pawlenty to make progress from the depths of public opinion polls, where he resides, and is unlikely to emerge from!

Mitt Romney: Will He Sell His Soul To Be President?

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Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney may be in the lead in public opinion polls for the Republican Presidential nomination, but it is clear that many Republicans are desperately seeking for someone else, whether it is Governor Rick Perry of Texas or Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey or others.

The Tea Party Movement does not like Romney, and neither do evangelical Christians who are suspicious of Romney’s Mormon faith.

Plus, Romney’s health care plan causes discontent, and the feeling that he does not really relate to Republicans voters, or in reality, maybe to ANY voters!

The latter is shown by his insensitive comment in New Hampshire that he is unemployed too, said as a joke to unemployed people he was meeting with. Could he truly commiserate with them, when he has at least $200 million personal fortune behind him?

Also, he made a comment not much noticed right after the New Hampshire debate, but recognized in the aftermath. Romney criticized the federal intervention by the Federal Emergency Management Agency in the days after the floods and tornadoes in the Midwest in April and May. He termed the intervention and spending as “immoral”, said FEMA should be privatized, and declared that deficit spending to help the victims made no sense at all, and burdened future generations with extra debts!

If we pursued what Romney has now advocated, it would mean only wealthy, well connected people would be guaranteed food, shelter, clothing, and protection if a disaster struck. How moral is it for someone to be so heartless and unconcerned about the tragedy of natural disasters?

This is Tea Party Movement extremism to the level of crazy and loony, and is obviously Romney’s attempt to appeal to the extreme right wing of his party, but if he were to win the nomination and become President, would he really pursue such narrow minded views, defying the history of the United States regarding the “general welfare” of the population, as enunciated in the “Elastic Clause” (Article 1, Section 8) of the Constitution? Romney NEEDS to clarify this matter, as an issue to consider regarding voting for him to be our President!

Obama Still At 49 Percent In Public Opinion Polls Despite Pessimism About Economy: Why Is That So?

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President Barack Obama remains popular in the nation, despite the high unemployment rate and the gloomy prognosis about the economic future.

In the latest poll, he stands at 49 percent, a high rating considering the economic situation, and never really has been lower than 47 percent, while his predecessors in office often rated much lower, particularly when economic times were tough.

The question is why this is so!

Part of it is the simple fact that the American people like the President and believe he cares about them.

But also, when the American public looks at the choices offered by the Republican opposition in the Presidential race, they are not enthusiastic, as who is there to be excited about?

There are no thrilling, dynamic candidates who inspire people, and most of the candidates are seen as extreme in their views, and the American people as a whole do not like extremes.

So even with a poor economy, Obama is in good stead as the Presidential battle of the GOP develops for 2012!