Presidential Election Of 1992

Major Turning Point For Republican Presidential Race: Endorsement Of Newt Gingrich By Powerful New Hampshire Conservative Newspaper

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It has been assumed all along that Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts Governor, was the front runner, and that he would win the GOP Presidential nomination.

Now it can be said that is much less likely as conservative discontent with Romney and his chameleon status, his constant flip flopping on just about every issue, has led the Manchester Union Leader, the leading newspaper in New Hampshire, to endorse former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who has surged to the lead in many public opinion polls after a disastrous start to his campaign five months ago.

Gingrich has many faults and shortcomings that can be utilized against him by President Barack Obama, but he comes across as far more exciting, interesting, and controversial in his actions and utterances than does Romney.

The first question will be whether Gingrich can garner his significant newspaper endorsement with a victory over Romney in the New Hampshire primary, which is practically home territory for Romney, who governed next door, and now has a home in the Granite State.

More than ever, the primary in New Hampshire seems like the turning point it has almost always been, in the sense that since the primary began in that state in 1952, every Presidential winner has won the primary in New Hampshire except Bill Clinton in 1992, George W. Bush in 2000, and Barack Obama in 2008.

It is clear the the Obama team needs to do a lot more preparation for a possible Gingrich candidacy, although at present, they have been assuming a Romney candidacy.

Most observers would think at this time that a Romney candidacy would be more challenging to Obama than a Gingrich candidacy in 2012. But it has been a reality that no one can truly be sure how a Presidential matchup would work out until the actual campaign gets under way in the fall of 2012.

The Herman Cain Phenomenon And Public Opinion Polls: A Parallel Universe!

Ronald 1 Comment

Herman Cain has had one hell of a week, and yet, unlike Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, he goes up in public opinion polls, while Mitt Romney stays stagnant in his numbers, still only about one out of four Republicans supporting him.

Herman Cain does not know China has had nuclear weapons since 1964.

Herman Cain does not seem to care that his 9-9-9 plan would raise taxes on 84 percent of the people, while lowering taxes on the wealthy.

Herman Cain suggests that we build a fence between Mexico and the United States which is electrified, and also wants a moat with alligators in it to stop illegal immigrants.

Herman Cain says he is against abortion completely, but wants the woman to have the choice on ending pregnancies.

Herman Cain does not know anything about foreign policy, and makes fun of the name of an important ally in the Near East in the war in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, saying he does not know who its leader is and does not care.

Herman Cain believes that it is alright to sexually harass women in the workplace and that no one should be disturbed by this.

Herman Cain has made so many other inane statements and shown a tremendous lack of interest in details on public issues, and seems more interested in selling his book and improving his chances to make money on motivational speeches.

Through all this, apparently, many Republicans either do not believe the sexual harassment charges or think they are no big deal, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, so Cain’s ratings have improved.

It does not matter to these Republicans that Herman Cain has no knowledge or experience in government, and they seem to be willing to “wing” it and let an incompetent, stupid man become the leader of the free world, whose best credentials is that he headed a pizza corporation!

The ability of Republicans and many Americans to live in a “bubble”, in their own version of the “parallel universe” is mind boggling!

Will the American people at large be moronic enough to put into office a businessman who is no Wendell Willkie or Ross Perot, both men having had an intelligent, accomplished career before running for President?

And remember, neither Willkie nor Perot WON, and if Herman Cain somehow becomes our next President, God save the United States and the world!

Why Barack Obama Will Be A Repeat Of Bill Clinton Electorally, Rather Than Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, And George H.W. Bush!

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A lot of political observers seem to think that Barack Obama is doomed to lose re-election, just as Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush did in 1976, 1980, and 1992.

The author will contend that rather than that unfortunate history, Barack Obama will repeat the electoral experience of Bill Clinton in 1996!

The question, of course, is what is the rationale behind this thought of the author?

Gerald Ford–was an unelected President, coming after Watergate, challenged in the primaries by Ronald Reagan, an extremely charismatic individual, who almost took the nomination from him. Ford was unable to unite the party around him after the Reagan battle, despite dumping Nelson Rockefeller for Bob Dole for Vice President. Ford had little opportunity to convince the country that he was deserving of election, and yet ALMOST defeated Jimmy Carter, which he would have done if he had won a few more thousand votes in Ohio and Hawaii! Ford was not seen as all that capable to be President by many people, with the poor economy of the time.

Jimmy Carter–had a difficult last year in office, with the Afghanistan invasion by the Soviet Union, the Iranian hostage crisis, and the challenge in the primaries by Senator Ted Kennedy and Governor Jerry Brown. He faced a charismatic opponent in Ronald Reagan, and a third party opponent in John Anderson. He was not a warm personality, and came across as weak and ineffective.

George H. W. Bush–faced a primary opponent in Pat Buchanan, and a strong third party challenger in Ross Perot. His Democratic opponent, Bill Clinton, had a lot of charisma, and was helped by the strong showing of Perot. And Bush did not have a particularly likeable personality, more respected for his ability than his understanding of average Americans and their lives.

Bill Clinton–engendered strong feelings for and against during his first term, and had charisma dripping off him, as compared to Bush and Bob Dole, his 1996 re-election opponent. Times were good, and he looked strong in his battles against the GOP Congress run by Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. He had no opposition for the second term nomination, and his opponent, Dole, being 73 years old, did not help his challenge to Clinton. Also, Wall Street gave more financial support to Clinton to hedge their bets, frustrating Bob Dole!

Barack Obama–well liked, even by those who do not like what he has done, but he has accomplished a lot in office, particularly in foreign affairs and national security. He has brought about substantial domestic reform despite strong opposition from the Republican party, and has loads of charisma, and tons of funding, including as with Clinton, from Wall Street, which, even if opposed as they were to Clinton and now Obama, hedge their bets and support him more than the Republican nominee, just as with Bob Dole in 1996. Also, there is a good chance of a Tea Party right wing party rebellion if Mitt Romney, the likely nominee, is the choice of the Republican party. The opposition does not have a candidate to excite the nation, so although the economy is horrible, the likelihood is that more Americans will recognize the reality that one does not overcome a near depression overnight, and will decide to stick with Obama, just as they did in the height of the Great Depression with Franklin D. Roosevelt!

Herman Cain, Ross Perot And Wendell Willkie: Businessmen As Presidential Candidates

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Herman Cain has become the newest “flavor of the month”, or some would say the “flavor of the week”, in the Republican Party battle to find a candidate who can defeat President Barack Obama.

Right now, he is running high in the polls, similar to Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry in the past few months, but he has many shortcomings.

1. He has NO experience in government and politics, and that makes him unable to understand that government is NOT a business, and cannot successfully be run as a business.

2. He is very ignorant on most issues other than his 9-9-9 tax plan, which economists say would not be a solution to the economic crisis, and would never pass Congress.

3. Cain has no concern about poverty and the struggles of the middle class, and his plans would include the destruction of Social Security and Medicare as we know it, and that does not go across well with a wide swath of voters in polls.

4. He may be popular among those who want a blunt personality, but that is not the way to make progress in diplomacy, and he lacks tact and basic knowledge in international affairs.

5. He would represent a backward trend in the African American community, a person who succeeded and does not care about those he left behind, in many ways an executive branch Clarence Thomas (Associate Justice of the Supreme Court).

Some would say that Herman Cain is this generation’s Ross Perot, the billionaire who ran for President twice in 1992 and 1996 as a third party candidate, and by so running, helped to put Bill Clinton in office and keep him there. But Perot actually, with all of his idiosyncratic nature, actually really addressed one issue that still affects us–the deficit and the national debt. Cain has no such vision or intelligence on the level of Ross Perot.

Others would wish to compare Cain to Republican Presidential nominee Wendell Willkie in the 1940 Presidential Election against Franklin D. Roosevelt, who ran a good race against the New Deal, but still lost by a substantial margin, but in the process, gained respect for his backing of FDR on foreign policy. Willkie’s background as a utilities executive harmed him, but his oratory wowed delegates at the Republican National Convention in 1940, who went berserk and nominated him.

The point is that Cain is no Ross Perot and is no Wendell Willkie!

Interestingly, C Span has a series on Friday nights this fall, mentioned in an earlier post, regarding losing Presidential candidates, and both Perot and Willkie will be portrayed in coming weeks. Willkie will be covered on Friday, October 21; and Perot on Friday, December 9.

This nation has never elected a businessman to the White House, and except for Willkie and Perot (third party), has never nominated one, either. We are NOT going to see Cain match those two in being a choice of the voters in the national election!

A Generation Of Bill Clinton: An Active, Historic, Influential Legacy!

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Today marks a generation, 20 years, of Bill Clinton being a national figure, with him announcing his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for President on this date in 1991.

Considered an underdog at the time, few expected that the Arkansas Governor would end up as our 42nd President!

Bill Clinton went on to serve two full terms in the White House, the only Democrat to do so since Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Today, at age 65, having survived bypass heart surgery in 2005; having overcome impeachment charges in 1998-1999; having had a major impact on American history during his years as President from 1993-2001; having been involved in the unsuccessful attempt of his wife, Hillary Clinton, to be the Democratic nominee for President in 2008; and having seen her succeed in the US Senate and now as Secretary of State under President Barack Obama, Clinton has been “giving back” to America and the world through his Clinton Global Initiative project, and is seen as one of the leading world statesmen!

Bill Clinton has pleased at times, and infuriated at times, those who have witnessed his historic roles in the past twenty years, including the author who has long had mixed feelings about his legacy and his private behavior.

But there is no doubt that Bill Clinton is still a national treasure, and that his Presidential Library in Little Rock will be a much visited place over the years by tourists and scholars, trying to analyze and evaluate the man and his Presidency.

So this is a moment to celebrate for Bill Clinton personally, and for the nation at large!

George Will’s Criticism Of The Republican Party: Too Southernized!

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George Will, the respectable conservative voice on ABC’s This Week with Christiane Amanpour, was sharply critical of the Republican Party this past weekend, in a way the author can totally agree with.

He pointed out that the Republican Party, the party that the South hated for a century because of the Civil War, has become overwhelmingly Southern in the past five election cycles.

Imagine this: 79 percent of the electoral votes the GOP has gained from 1992 to 2008 were in the South! Between that and the Northwest (Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah) , the Republican Party has managed to make itself a sectional party, which Will is concerned dooms it in the 2012 Presidential Election!

Will pointed out that Ohio has been the crux of whether the GOP wins or loses, and probably will be the same in 2012.

The author wishes to remind the reader that EVERY Republican Presidential winner since the inception of the party in the 1850s has won Ohio, so when Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton and Barack Obama won that state in 1976, 1992, and 2008, it guaranteed a Democratic victory.

This statement of Will should be recalled when one feels gloomy about the electoral prospects of Barack Obama, and remember that the Democrats are strong in the Northeast, the upper Midwest, and the Pacific Coast, and it is still their election to lose in 2012!

Does Osama Bin Laden Success Guarantee Second Presidential Term For Barack Obama?

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As a result of the successful raid into the Osama Bin Laden compound in Pakistan, the first thought would be that it gives President Obama a tremendous edge in the contest for re-election as President in 2012.

But before we conclude that, we need to look at history, whether military success insures a political victory.

In at least three cases, two American and one British, exactly the opposite occurred.

British Prime Minister Winston Churchill was the great hero of World War II and the struggle against Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany. And yet, when the British people voted months after the end of the European war, they chose to vote out the Conservative Party of Churchill and put in as Prime Minister the Labour Party leader, Clement Attlee, who served from 1945-1951.

In 1975, President Gerald Ford mounted a successful rescue mission of 39 US Navy personnel from the ship Mayaguez, which had been seized by the radical Khmer Rouge government of Cambodia. While 41 military personnel died in the successful rescue mission, two more than the number saved, it was still seen as a victory to be able to release the hostages unharmed. But in 1976, President Ford lost to Governor Jimmy Carter of Georgia for a full term in the White House!

And in 1991, President George H W Bush was able to mount a UN offensive which defeated Saddam Hussein in six weeks, the very brief Gulf War! Bush’s ratings hit an all time high for any President, 91 percent, but a year and a half later, only 37 percent voted for Bush against Bill Clinton, the second worst defeated President in American history, despite the great and quick victory over Iraq!

So while it would seem likely that Obama gains a great edge for next year’s election by the death of Osama Bin Laden, there is no certainty in any sense of what the future holds!

The Donald Trump Phenomenon: It Can Only Hurt The Republican Party And Help The Democrats!

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Real estate mogul Donald Trump is on a tear, exploiting the “Birther” conspiracy theory about Barack Obama, and he has now surged in some polls to a lead in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2012.

Despite his multiple business bankruptcies, his three marriages, and his tendency to “shoot from the hip” with ridiculous and reckless statements and assertions over many years, Trump is suddenly taking all of the oxygen out of the air in the Republican Party.

Trump is becoming more ridiculous and even stupid as he marches on, now claiming, much like Congressman Ben Quayle of Arizona, son of former Vice President Dan Quayle, did in his campaign for Congress last year, that President Obama is the absolutely worst President in American history!

For Trump to make such a claim, and say Obama has now surpassed former President Jimmy Carter as the worst President ever, shows his absolute ignorance, as if he had studied history, he would well know that there is a long list of Presidents, mostly before and after Abraham Lincoln’s Presidency, that are FAR worse than either Carter or Obama! In fact, in the first estimate of Obama a year ago, he was rated in the top fifteen of the Presidents, while Carter was rated above at least twelve Presidents, putting him in the second tier of three rankings of the Presidents! And Carter seems certain to move up over time, not down to the bottom five or ten, as some like to state, which shows their total lack of knowledge and understanding of the history of the Presidency!

Also, when Trump was asked how many members there are of the House Of Representatives, he was annoyed and refused to answer, a sign that he did not know, putting him in the same camp as being stupid and ignorant as Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum, all of whom have shown they have no clue about any facts or details of our nation’s history!

Why should Donald Trump be expected to know anything other than how to make money, fire people on his television show, and look for constant publicity, since, after all, he inherited his wealth, and has never known what it is to be an ordinary American, who has to worry constantly about staying above water economically?

Rather than study and know the issues, Donald Trump would rather talk about telling China off, seizing Iraq oil revenues, and create constant controversy with his loose mouth?

And get this: Trump is now threatening that if he does not win the GOP nomination for President, he might run as an Independent in the 2012 election, and that with spending up to $600 million of his own money, that he could win the White House! In other words, he would buy the job, much like Rick Scott did in Florida”s Governorship race!

But the difference is that the Electoral College, often much maligned, prevents such a possibility, and NEVER has and NEVER will an Independent be able to win the White House! Ross Perot spent $62 million of his fortune, received 19 percent of the vote, but won no electoral votes in 1992! And Theodore Roosevelt, the much beloved former President, ran as a Progressive in 1912, and won only six states and 27 percent of the votes, and 88 electoral votes, an all time high, but nowhere near winning the Presidency! And this was not just anyone, but rather Teddy Roosevelt!

So stay ignorant and stupid, Donald, and spend your money on your own ego, help the economy in so doing, get your publicity and attention that you constantly need, destroy the Republican Party which is doing a good job by itself in doing so by flirting with the Tea Party, and help Barack Obama, supposedly the worst President ever, to win reelection and continue his great leadership of the nation for another four years!