Presidential Election Of 1876

The Supreme Court On Trial IF It Destroys Health Care Reform: Creation Of A Constitutional Crisis

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The US Supreme Court is in the midst of a crisis of massive proportions, if it destroys the Obama Health Care reform in June.

It will create a crisis in health care for about 50 million Americans, and affect young adults, senior citizens, and people with pre-existing conditions in a massively negative way.

It will undermine the major effort of the Obama Administration to bring health care into the 21st century, and on the same level as every other democratic nation in the world, many of whom have had national health care for all for decades.

It will also put the Supreme Court as an institution on trial, as it is already perceived as overly partisan, with many of the decisions decided on party line vote, based on which party’s President chose the members of the Court.

It will also make it even more obvious that the election will have the effect of deciding the future direction of the Court, based on which party gains the Presidency and has control of the US Senate. This has always been true, and has been mentioned by this author numerous times on this blog.

This Court could undermine public faith and respect for the institution itself, doing even more damage than the Bush V. Gore case of 2000, and the Citizens United case of 2010.

The Court has been a hot political issue in the past in election years, including:

1800-Thomas Jefferson vs. John Adams, with the power of the Court a key issue, and Adams’ last minute appointment of Chief Justice John Marshall leading, despite opposition of Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe and Andrew Jackson, to a very powerful Supreme Court shaped by Marshall.

1860–The election of Abraham Lincoln, who attacked the Dred Scott decision that stated that a slave owner could take his slave anywhere in the United States, and helping to lead to the secession of the South, and the coming of the Civil War.

1876–An election where the popular vote loser, Rutherford B. Hayes, was chosen by a committee which included five Supreme Court Justices, when no one was able to win the contested electoral votes of three Southern states–Louisiana, South Carolina and Florida.

1912 and 1924–Third party (Progressive Party) candidates Theodore Roosevelt and Robert La Follette, Sr., respectively, proposed limitations on the powers of the Supreme Court .

1936–Franklin D. Roosevelt made the Court an issue because of its constant declaration of New Deal laws as unconstitutional, and tried to “pack” the Court by a proposal to add six new Justices for each one on the Court over the age of 70, an idea soundly defeated in 1937.

1968–Richard Nixon campaigned against the “liberal” Court of Chief Justice Earl Warren, who then had to swear him as President in January 1969, but retired shortly after.

2000–The Supreme Court on a partisan vote stopped the vote count in the state of Florida, thereby awarding George W. Bush the Presidency over Al Gore, with a margin of victory in Florida of 537 votes statewide.

2012 could be another such case of a President confronting a defiant Supreme Court to the will of the majority in Congress and the American people!

Ten Other Presidential Elections That Transformed American History For Better Or Worse

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In addition to what are considered the ten most important Presidential elections in American history, there are also ten other elections that transformed our history, as history would have been different had the results been the opposite of what they were.

In chronological order, these elections are as follows.

Presidential Election of 1844—If James K. Polk had not won over Henry Clay, the likelihood of gaining the Pacific Northwest by treaty with Great Britain, and gaining the Southwest by war with Mexico, together the greatest land expansion since the Louisiana Purchase under Thomas Jefferson, would have been far less likely. But also the Civil War might have been delayed without the battle over freedom or slavery in the Mexican Cession territories gained from the war.

Presidential Election of 1864—An election often ignored, if Abraham Lincoln had not won over General George McClellan, who he had fired from Union Army military leadership, the Civil War, in its late stages, might have ended differently in some form, hard to determine.

Presidential Election of 1876—If the Electoral Commission and Compromise of 1877, giving Rutherford B. Hayes victory over Samuel Tilden, had not occurred, after a disputed election result in Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina, there might have been civil war erupting all over again.

Presidential Election Of 1896—If William McKinley had not defeated William Jennings Bryan, there might have been no Spanish American War, no Filipino Insurrection, and no gaining of overseas colonies, as Bryan opposed the idea.

Presidential Election Of 1916—If Woodrow Wilson had not squeaked out a victory over Charles Evans Hughes, he had readied plans to hand over the Presidency to Hughes early, with the Secretary of State resigning, Hughes being named Secretary of State, the Vice President resigning, and then Wilson resigning. Wilson left behind a hand written memorandum to this effect, concerned about the transition of power as the dangers of World War I came closer to the possibility of American participation.

Presidential Election Of 1928—If Herbert Hoover had lost to Alfred E. Smith, the likelihood of a very different reaction to the onset of the Great Depression in 1929 might have led Smith to being the equivalent of Hoover’s successor, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and his New Deal.

Presidential Election of 1968—If Hubert Humphrey had defeated Richard Nixon, it is likely that the Vietnam War would have ended earlier, and that there would not have been a Watergate scandal, and instead a continuation of the Great Society begun by Lyndon B. Johnson.

Presidential Election of 1976—If Gerald Ford had defeated Jimmy Carter, it is likely that after 12 years of Republican control and growing economic and foreign policy challenges, that the Democrats would have retaken the White House in 1980, and there would have been no Ronald Reagan Presidency.

Presidential Election Of 1992–If George H. W. Bush had not had to deal with an economic recession and the third party challenge of Ross Perot, the second highest popular percentage third party effort in US history, it is very likely that Bill Clinton would never have been President.

Presidential Election of 2000—If the popular vote recount in Florida had been continued, and the Supreme Court had not intervened to declare the election over, then Al Gore would have become President instead of George W. Bush, and there might not have been a September 11 terrorist attack, the resulting war in Afghanistan and Iraq, and likely not a tremendous growth in the national debt from $5 trillion to $10 trillion

How much history would have been different if only the results of these elections had been other than what they were!

Nate Silver Gives Odds For Republican Presidential Candidates A Year Before The Presidential Election

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Nate Silver of the NEW YORK TIMES on Friday explained, according to his statistical model, the odds of any GOP candidate for President having the opportunity to win the popular vote in the 2012 Presidential Election..

Note he does not say that any of these candidates will win the election, because, of course, the Electoral College will decide who wins the White House, and four times the popular vote loser nationally (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000) has won the election.

According to his model, the best candidate with the most opportunity to win is Jon Huntsman, the former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China, who has so far made no dent in the public opinion polls.

And yet, Silver’s argument is that with a 2.5% growth of the economy in 2012, a fairly tepid growth thought to be the most likely and best scenario, Huntsman has a 71 percent chance of winning the popular vote, as compared to 58 percent for Mitt Romney. No other candidate can win under this model, with Herman Cain having a 41 percent chance, Rick Perry a 30 percent chance, and Michele Bachmann having a 12 percent chance.

IF there is a stalled economy with no growth, Huntsman’s chances rise to 90 percent, Romney to 83 percent, Cain to 70 percent, Perry to 59 percent, and Bachmann to 34 percent.

If GDP grows only 2.3 percent instead of 2.5 percent, Huntsman has a 73 percent chance of winning, Romney 60 percent, Cain 44 percent, Perry 32 percent, and Bachmann 14 percent.

If the economy grows by the unexpected amount of 4 percent GDP growth, then Huntsman has a 55 percent chance, Romney 40 percent, Cain 25 percent, Perry 17 percent, and Bachmann 5 percent.

Notice that Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are not even considered in this model drawn up by Nate Silver.

It ultimately comes down to what the author has said many times; that Jon Huntsman, despite his poor performance in polls so far, is by far the best bet for the Republican Party against Barack Obama, BUT the Tea Party does not care for him; evangelical Christians will not like him for being a Mormon; and unless he can win New Hampshire, he will have no opportunity to move ahead, and right now it seems unlikely.

And since Romney has many of the same problems as Huntsman, as listed above, and has actually less of a chance than Huntsman among key GOP groups, it looks likely that the Republican Party will blow the chance they theoretically have to win the White House!

Tenth Anniversary Of Bush V. Gore Supreme Court Decision: Its Effect On America! :(

Ronald 1 Comment

This weekend marks the tenth anniversary of the Supreme Court intervention in the 2000 Presidential Election, the infamous case of Bush V. Gore.

The Republican majority Supreme Court took an unconstitutional action, unprecedented in American history, when it interfered in the vote recount in Florida to declare George W. Bush the winner over Al Gore by the measly margin of 537 votes despite a substantial popular vote lead of Gore, throwing the 25 electoral votes of Florida into the Bush camp, and making him the closest winner of the Electoral College since the 1876 Presidential Election, when Rutherford B. Hayes was declared the winner of the electoral college by one vote, despite a popular vote lead by Samuel Tilden.

There was nothing in the Constitution that provided for such a Supreme Court intervention, and for a Court with Antonin Scalia preaching “originalism”, it was a shocking abuse of power, but with no recourse by Gore or anyone else, as the old adage of Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes reverberated: “The Constitution is what the Supreme Court says it is!”

The effects of eight years of the George W. Bush Presidency have been massive, most of it bad, and one has to wonder how the nation would have been under eight years of Al Gore.

Of course, conservatives and Republicans will be praising the fact that Al Gore never made it to the White House, but it is clear that in many ways, life would have been different in America had Gore taken the oath of office.

Among the differences:

1. The war in Afghanistan would have been on the front burner, not on the back burner, and Osama Bin Laden would likely have been captured or killed, instead of being allowed to escape.
2. The Iraq War would likely have not been waged, and instead the problem of Iran likely would have been addressed in a way whereby Iran would not be the major menace it is today in international affairs, as the Iraq War only strengthened Iran in the Middle East.
3. The reaction to Hurricane Katrina would have been far different, and New Orleans would be further along toward recovery with far less loss of life at the time of the tragedy.
4. The national debt would not have been doubled, as it was from 5 to 10 trillion under Bush, as the massive Bush tax cuts would not have occurred, and the massive spending on two wars at the same time would not have been done.
5. The Medicare Part D legislation would not have occurred, but if it developed in any form, would have been paid for, not adding massively to the national debt.
6. Torture would not have been endorsed by President Gore as it has been by President George W. Bush.
7.We would not have witnessed the abuse of power by Vice President Dick Cheney, who scarred the Vice Presidency’s reputation.
8. There never would have been a second time in the Defense Department for Donald Rumsfeld, who served earlier under President Gerald Ford, and that would have been good for the military who go into our combat operations.
9. Movement on the environment, particularly on global warming and climate change, would have been further accomplished than it has been.
10. The issue of poverty, which was being pursued as a future subject for consideration by Bill Clinton in his last year as
President, would have been a major agenda item by a President Gore.
11.The Gore Presidency would have been, generally, another age of progressive reform, more the true successor to the Great Society of Lyndon B. Johnson, than the comparatively disappointing Presidencies of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton in the eras of domestic reform.
12. Health care reform would likely have been passed years earlier than it has been under President Barack Obama.

It is clear that America today would be a very different country had only the Supreme Court stayed out of the Presidential Election of 2000, and the nation today suffers from the tragedy of eight years of George W. Bush! 🙁