Ohio

2016: Most Dangerous Year Since Richard Nixon Constitutional Crisis In Late 1973 And Until His Resignation In August 1974!

Ronald 3 Comments

Today, March 15, 2016, is the Ides of March–the day Julius Caesar was assassinated in the Roman Republic in 44 BC.

It is also the day that the Republican Party may suffer its death as a serious political party; the party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and Ronald Reagan!

If Donald Trump manages to defeat both Marco Rubio and John Kasich today in Florida and Ohio, then the GOP nomination battle is over, and a true disaster has occurred!

The idea that Ted Cruz would be an acceptable alternative is ridiculous, as his extremist right wing views would, in many ways, be even more dangerous to our nation than even Trump!

Trump is a Fascist demagogue, with no principles, willing to consort with racists, nativists, misogynists, homophobes, and with white trailer trash that represents the worst of America.

Were he to win, we would face a constitutional crisis on the level, and possibly surpassing it, of the Richard Nixon constitutional crisis in late 1973 and until his resignation in August 1974.

Trump would likely be more dangerous than even Nixon, certainly the worst threat to civility and the Bill of Rights since Nixon!

Thankfully, no scenario with the Electoral College can see either Trump or Cruz winning 270 electoral votes, but the nomination of Trump would represent the demise of the GOP, caused by their own right wing turn in the years since Barack Obama won the Presidency, and they have no one to blame for their mess, except themselves!

The Significance Of Florida And Ohio For The Nomination And Election Of The Next President!

Ronald 25 Comments

So it comes down to Florida and Ohio.

Next Tuesday, when those two states, and others, vote in their primaries, we will know if Donald Trump is the likely GOP nominee for sure or not.

Right now, Trump leads Marco Rubio in Florida and John Kasich in Ohio, and there is no question that if these two contenders cannot win their home states, they are done.

But if they or either one wins their states, then the Trump bandwagon is at least slowed, and the likelihood of a contested convention in Cleveland in July becomes more likely.

Trump has gained the enmity of conservatives, including the two major conservative periodicals, the National Review and the Weekly Standard.  The conservative movement is in crisis, as they foresee an electoral disaster if Trump is the GOP nominee.

It seems much more clear now that the Republicans are fighting a losing battle, as with Michael Bloomberg deciding not to run as an Independent, the odds of the Democrats winning the Electoral College becomes much more certain, with either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.

But ultimately, it is not only these two primaries that are crucial, but also recognition that IF the Democrats win either Florida or Ohio in the fall, they are guaranteed victory, and that likelihood is increasingly likely!

The Comeuppance Of Donald Trump; And Hillary Clinton Barely Survives!

Ronald 5 Comments

So the voters  in Iowa, the small percentage who actually voted, have made their judgment!

It is true that more Iowans participated in the caucuses than ever before, but still less than a quarter of eligible people voted.

But what they have wrought is stunning beyond belief!

Donald Trump got his comeuppance, and it will be interesting to see his public reaction and behavior during this week before the New Hampshire Primary.

Ted Cruz may have won, but he will be bitterly opposed by mainstream Republicans, who are likely to converge around Marco Rubio after New Hampshire, with only John Kasich seen as a possible challenger to Kasich for the mainstream, depending on what happens next week!

Hillary Clinton barely survived, and Bernie Sanders now has a direct challenge to her in New Hampshire, which he is favored to win easily, but the question is whether he can survive beyond that as a viable Democratic candidate.

The odds of Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton as the party nominees, which this blogger predicted on December 31 on here, seems more likely than ever, with Ohio as the crucial battleground, and the reason why this blogger believes John Kasich and Sherrod Brown will be the Vice Presidential choices of the nominees this summer!

Beginning Of Rise Of Sanity? John Kasich Rises In New Hampshire Polls, And Is Endorsed By The Boston Globe!

Ronald 1 Comment

Could it be that Republican voters in New Hampshire are starting to show some sanity?

The latest public opinion polls show a steady rise by Ohio Governor John Kasich, easily the most experienced, most qualified, and most sane and stable of the Republican Presidential field.

Understand that this blogger is not saying he is about to vote for John Kasich in the election this fall.

But were a Republican to win the White House, he could not live with any feeling of peace with any other GOP Presidential nominee.

Kasich is the best the Republicans have to offer, and he is a mainstream conservative, with faults like all candidates, but also a sense of how to govern, with his 18 years in the House of Representatives, and being Chair of the Budget Committee for many years.  And now the Boston Globe has endorsed him.

And despite issues and objections, Kasich has been one of the few Republican governors that has not been totally outrageous and disgraceful!

Ohio is still the crucial state for Republican Presidential nominees, and Kasich would have a good chance to win his home state, and maybe, therefore, win the Presidency.

Remember that EVERY elected Republican President (all but Gerald Ford) has won Ohio!

 

Long Term Political Projections For 2016 And Beyond!

Ronald 1 Comment

As 2016 arrives tomorrow, some long term projections for the upcoming year politically.

Next December, we can see how accurate these projections are:

Donald Trump will NOT be the Republican Presidential nominee, and he will lose both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary.  He will be a sore loser there, and will announce a third party movement, but will win NO states in November, but take away votes from the Republican nominee, similar to Ross Perot in 1992.

The Republican nominee for President will be Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who will select Ohio Governor John Kasich as his Vice Presidential running mate.

Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic Presidential nomination, and will select Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown as her running mate for Vice President to blunt the effect of Ohio Governor John Kasich as the Republican Vice Presidential nominee.  And remember Ohio is the crucial state historically in the Electoral College, as NO Republican has won the White House without Ohio!

Hillary Clinton will become the 45th President of the United States , and Sherrod Brown will become the 48th Vice President of the United States, winning by a substantial margin in the Electoral College, keeping the 242 electoral votes of 18 states (Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii) and the District of Columbia, PLUS the following “swing states”—Ohio (18); Virginia (13)–thus insuring an Electoral College majority of 273 when 270 are required;  but also, in addition, the following:  Colorado (9); Iowa (6); Nevada (6); New Mexico (5); New Hampshire (4)–a total of 25 states and 303 electoral votes.

The only loss for the Democrats will be Florida, which will go to Rubio, a home state favorite, and taking away 29 electoral votes, from the 332 of Barack Obama in 2012 to the 303 of Hillary Clinton.  So Hillary Clinton will win 25 states, instead of the 26 that Obama won in 2012. The final electoral vote will be 303-235.

Hillary Clinton will name Vice President Joe Biden her Secretary of State.

Hillary Clinton will gain the opportunity to select FOUR Supreme Court nominees in her four year term, as follows:  Ruth Bader Ginsburg,  Antonin Scalia, Anthony Kennedy, Stephen Breyer–but of course, this cannot be proved to be correct until that next four year term is completed!

The US Senate will go back to the Democrats, gaining the seats up in Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Missouri, going from 44 seats plus two Independents (Maine, Angus King; and Vermont, Bernie Sanders) to 51 plus 2, effectively 53 seats to 47 for the Republicans, from the present 54 seats for the GOP.  Senator Chuck Schumer of New York will be the Senate Majority Leader as a result.  The President Pro Tempore position will go back to Vermont Senator Patrick Leahy, the longest serving Senator with 42 years and another elected term beginning in 2017.

The US House of Representatives will go from 247 Republicans to 188 Democrats, to a gain of 17 seats, and a new total of 205 Democrats and 230 Republicans.  Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin will remain Speaker of the House of Representatives.

So the line of succession will be President Hillary Clinton; Vice President Sherrod Brown; Speaker of the House Paul Ryan; Senate President Pro Tempore Patrick Leahy, followed by the cabinet officers, beginning with Joe Biden.

We shall see in a year how accurate my prognostications are!  Happy New Year 2016!

The Need For A One Day National Presidential Primary In June Of Election Year, Ending The System That Presently Exists!

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The present Primary and Caucus system is a terrible method that encourages an inordinate amount of attention paid to “small” states with fewer people and an unusual mix of factors that distort and manipulate the process used to choose Presidential nominees.

Why should Iowa in a caucus and New Hampshire in a primary, and South Carolina and Nevada, all totally unrepresentative of the nation and of the political parties at large, have such a dramatic effect on the whole process of nominating Presidential candidates?

If anything, it should be “large” states that represent a diversity of America which, if we are to keep the present system, should go first, such as Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Missouri!

But a better alternative, if it could be arranged, which admittedly would be difficult, would be to have a National Primary Day in early June of the election year, similar to Election Day being in early November.

If this was arranged, there could be two to three weeks of early voting in May, as there is for the election in October.

If this idea was adopted, all campaigning would come to a peak over just a few weeks from early voting to the actual Primary Day, and it would better represent the parties as they get ready for the election, and would undermine extreme right and left from having the impact they often do because of the attention given to them by their being first to vote!

With Jeb Bush Floundering, Opportunity For John Kasich Potential To Rise Grows Dramatically!

Ronald 15 Comments

It is clear that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is floundering in his Presidential bid, with his expression of exasperation at the toil and turmoil of campaigning, his complaints about being attacked by Donald Trump, and his wish he was able to do other things rather than waste his time, is stunning.

Despite his family name, one can say that Jeb Bush is probably done, unless he makes a major revival in today’s  Republican Presidential debate in Boulder, Colorado, sponsored by CNBC.

This opens up opportunity for John Kasich  to emerge as the “Establishment” candidate, and be able to combat the fact that Donald Trump and Dr. Benjamin Carson are in a massive lead in public opinion polls.

Marco Rubio is already showing signs that he is about to destroy his chances, by his announcement that he plans to vote against the budget deal negotiated by outgoing Speaker of the House John Boehner, designed to keep the economy and budget stable until 2017 and the next President, and give incoming Speaker Paul Ryan a breather as he takes over House leadership. This is simply designed to gain support of the extremist right wing Freedom or Tea Party Caucus in the House, a massive error by Rubio.  It is almost as if Rubio, who has now condemned his job in the Senate, saying he has never liked it, is about to push himself out of politics altogether by his reckless behavior.

But also Rubio complaining about being unhappy as a Senator makes one wonder about his character, as the people of the third largest state, Florida, gave him the gift of serving in the Senate, which many people, including this author and blogger, would “die” for, and yet he is complaining about a “plum” job, one of the best one could attain for.  So this also makes Rubio far from the ideal candidate for President, because it makes one wonder whether he is interested in being President no matter what challenges he will face, and would he be able to handle the frustrations of the job, just by asking Barack Obama!

John Kasich has now expressed total exasperation about Donald Trump wanting to deport 11 million people and build a “Trump Wall”, which he considers preposterous; about Dr. Benjamin Carson, who now says he wants to end Medicare and Medicaid completely, along with his many whacko statements and revelations about his background; about Rubio, complaining about being a Senator; and about Bush, who seems not to want to work for the Presidency and wants the job handed to him on a silver platter, as if he is “entitled” to it!

Kasich is expressing what moderate conservative Republicans and outsiders, such as this blogger, feel, and the belief that John Kasich remains the best choice for the GOP, with his long career in the House of Representatives; his business and media career; and now his popular leadership as Governor of the most crucial state for any Republican Presidential nominee, the state of Ohio.

If the GOP had any sense, and its voters had mainstream ideas, John Kasich would be the nominee, but right now, the odds on that seem long.  The question is whether the party will overcome its extremist right wing Tea Party-Freedom Caucus and come into the light of a mainstream alternative to the Democrats, having lost the popular vote five of the last six times for the White House.  If they do not, the Republican Party long range future is doomed!

The Republican “Establishment”: Can It Overcome Donald Trump, Dr. Benjamin Carson, And Carly Fiorina?

Ronald 52 Comments

It has been more than 100 days now of the Donald Trump phenomenon, and for the first time, Donald Trump is not first, ending up second behind Dr. Benjamin Carson, in an Iowa public opinion poll.  It seems as if the Trump surge may be starting to fray at the edges.

But the fact that Dr. Benjamin Carson is now ahead of Trump in Iowa, and the fact that Carly Fiorina, while weaker in polls than she was, is also still in the top few in any poll, one has to wonder will the Republican “Establishment”, which has always controlled the party nomination, except for Barry Goldwater a half century ago, be able to recover and choose the nominee of their party?
The fact that Texas Senator Ted Cruz is also doing better in the polls worries the “Establishment”, as Cruz is despised by John McCain, Mitt Romney, and now, even former President George W. Bush, who so stated that “I do not like that guy” at a fundraiser for his brother Jeb Bush, who is floundering badly in the polls, and has cut his campaign staff and spending, signs of a dying campaign.

But with Jeb Bush in trouble, and Chris Christie not improving his situation either, and predicted by many to be on his way out of the race soon, who is there the “Establishment” can have confidence in?   It comes down to a man who despite some stupid statements and low ratings in the polls still seems viable for some reason, and could run a decent campaign against Hillary Clinton, and at least compete in debates and in experience.

That is Ohio Governor John Kasich, with 18 years in the House of Representatives and in his second term as Governor, with a high public opinion rating, and slowly rising in New Hampshire, with little chance in the Iowa caucuses.

This blogger has said before that John Kasich is the best Republican in the race, although he is no J0n Huntsman, who competed in 2012, and is still the best Republican available to be President, although he is not running, and instead is promoting the “No Labels” movement for a bipartisan choice that could unite Democrats, Independents, and Republicans.

Ohio is the crucial state, as anyone who studies Presidential election history is well aware of, and were Kasich to combine with Florida Senator Marco Rubio, a “new generation” and telegenic figure from the other crucial state of Florida, a man who has some connection to the Establishment, but a foot in the camp of the challengers to the Establishment as well, it would be by far the best general election ticket.

Nobody in their right mind can think that Trump, Carson or Fiorina could actually win the election, but a Kasich-Rubio ticket, or even as some suggest, a Rubio-Kasich ticket of two men a generation apart in age as Barack Obama and Joe Biden are, with the “elder statesman” in the supporting role, COULD have a shot at winning over Hillary Clinton, although the odds are clearly, ultimately, against that scenario for the GOP!

 

 

 

 

Marco Rubio Emerges From “Pack” Of Republicans As “Officeholder” And “New Generation” Of Leadership!

Ronald 4 Comments

It is interesting that in the midst of the “non officeholders” —Donald Trump, Carley Fiorina, Dr. Benjamin Carson—together gaining a majority of the support in most public opinion polls for the Republican Presidential nomination, that we are seeing the rise of Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and to a lesser extent Ohio Governor John Kasich, in the polls, while others, including Jeb Bush, are losing support.

Rubio is taking advantage of the situation to point out that he is on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and that he is a “new generation” of leadership, surpassing his own “mentor”, Jeb Bush!

Rubio has many weaknesses, but the fact that he is Hispanic, is from the  leading “swing” state, Florida, and makes a good personal appearance, are all factors in his rise.

The question is whether he can overcome the “non officeholders” and continue to improve enough in debates to end up as the leader in the polls in the next few months before the Iowa Caucuses occur on February 1.

The Likely “Best” Choice For The Republican Ticket In 2016: John Kasich And Marco Rubio

Ronald 30 Comments

The first Republican debate is long over, and Donald Trump is monopolizing all of the oxygen in the room, but he is a calamity waiting to happen to the Republican Party.

It is clear already that the best ticket the GOP could offer the American people, in November 2016, would be to nominate Ohio Governor John Kasich for President and Florida Senator Marco Rubio for Vice President.

This would offer the American people a 64 year old Congressional veteran, with 18 years in the House of Representatives and 6 years as Ohio Governor—a man who is a clear cut conservative but centrist in nature, accepting Medicaid; accepting gay marriage as established and tolerant of gays and lesbians; having an element of compassion toward the poor working class, drug offenders, and mentally ill people; great experience in balancing budgets as head of the House Budget Committee; great communications ability, including six years as a talk show host on Fox News Channel; a very popular Governor of the crucial state for any Republican to win the White House; who has accepted that climate change exists; has supported gun regulation in the past; has supported criminal justice reform; is open minded on illegal immigration and eventual citizenship; and has an enlightened view of Christianity and its doctrines, so that recently he has been called a Pope Francis type personality.

However, others have said that Kasich has a “prickly” personality; that he has a “hair trigger” temper; that he is condescending, arrogant, and manipulative, which is, of course, quite disturbing. It also has been pointed out that he has weakened labor unions in Ohio, and has undermined public education in Ohio, in favor of charter schools. So, as with any candidate, he has definite shortcomings, but there is also the reality that, in comparison to his rivals, he stands out as having more potential as a candidate, and to have some, if not all, of the proper character traits, with no one having all, unfortunately.

So it is clear that Kasich is not preferable to a Democratic nominee, any of them in reality, but he comes across as the best person in the race on the Republican side at this writing.

At the same time, Marco Rubio, at age 45 in 2016, might be the best choice for Vice President. He has charisma; good looks; is Hispanic (Cuban American); represents another swing state like Ohio is, but Florida is the largest state to be a swing state; and while he is much more conservative than Kasich, he has potential for growth and maturity in his views over time. Rubio would not be thrilled to be Vice President, but it is a stepping stone to the Presidency when he is older and more seasoned. Besides, he has given up his chance to hold his Senate seat, so it would be more enticing for him to accept the Vice Presidency if he fails to win the Presidential nomination of his party.

This would be a team that would easily give the Republican Party their best shot at winning, but if they do not appeal to women, African Americans, Hispanics, the young, and to working class Americans, they have no chance of winning, so they need to moderate their image.

This team of Kasich and Rubio could accomplish what no other combination would be able to do–win the White House for the Republicans!  Having said that, the odds for the Democrats to keep the White House are excellent, and if Trump runs as an independent or third party candidate, it is guaranteed that the Democrats will win, and likely be certain to regain the Senate, and possibly,. even the House of Representative!