Newt Gingrich

Will Newt Gingrich Become The “Anti Romney” Conservative Alternative?

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So the “Flavor of the Month” is rapidly losing support in the Republican Party!

With a woman coming out today with a statement that Herman Cain made inappropriate sexual advances toward her, the fourth such woman, and this one willing to show her face, we will soon see the rapid decline of Herman Cain as a Presidential candidate, no great loss, as he had proved to be inadequate in his preparation, and ill informed on one issue after another, and with a crazy 9-9-9 tax plan that would raise taxes on the middle class and help the rich avoid taxes more than now!

With Herman Cain on the decline, after Rick Perry last month and Michele Bachmann the month before, now it looks more likely that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich might become the new “Anti Romney” conservative alternative for the Republican Presidential nomination.

Gingrich has the intelligence, the knowledge, the skills that are needed, no doubt, to run for the Presidency. He is a very skilled debater who would make a confrontation between himself and President Barack Obama the best Presidential debates ever, since the Lincoln Douglas Senate debates in Illinois in 1858!

What he lacks is discipline, control of his rhetoric and personal behavior, and an absolutely horrific record of scandal, poor ethics, and low morals as Speaker, and in his personal life, having had three marriages and two divorces, and a reputation as a womanizer par excellence!

GIngrich has always been one of the nastiest campaigners around, and has made some of the most outrageous statements and issued some of the most disgraceful personal attacks on President Obama. He has no shame, and seems to be immune to anything but his own ambitions and desires.

The thought of a Gingrich Presidency is to imagine someone who would be more hostile to the press and more controversial in the Presidency than anyone we have ever had. It would be damaging to the institution of the Presidency, and lower the reputation historically of that office!

This shows the sad state of the Republican Party, that Mitt Romney is unable to move beyond 25 percent in any poll, and the reality that conservatives do not want him, and are looking high and low for any alternative to the former Massachusetts Governor.

So with rising public opinion poll support, expect Newt Gingrich to become the new “Flavor of the Month” for November!

Nate Silver Gives Odds For Republican Presidential Candidates A Year Before The Presidential Election

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Nate Silver of the NEW YORK TIMES on Friday explained, according to his statistical model, the odds of any GOP candidate for President having the opportunity to win the popular vote in the 2012 Presidential Election..

Note he does not say that any of these candidates will win the election, because, of course, the Electoral College will decide who wins the White House, and four times the popular vote loser nationally (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000) has won the election.

According to his model, the best candidate with the most opportunity to win is Jon Huntsman, the former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China, who has so far made no dent in the public opinion polls.

And yet, Silver’s argument is that with a 2.5% growth of the economy in 2012, a fairly tepid growth thought to be the most likely and best scenario, Huntsman has a 71 percent chance of winning the popular vote, as compared to 58 percent for Mitt Romney. No other candidate can win under this model, with Herman Cain having a 41 percent chance, Rick Perry a 30 percent chance, and Michele Bachmann having a 12 percent chance.

IF there is a stalled economy with no growth, Huntsman’s chances rise to 90 percent, Romney to 83 percent, Cain to 70 percent, Perry to 59 percent, and Bachmann to 34 percent.

If GDP grows only 2.3 percent instead of 2.5 percent, Huntsman has a 73 percent chance of winning, Romney 60 percent, Cain 44 percent, Perry 32 percent, and Bachmann 14 percent.

If the economy grows by the unexpected amount of 4 percent GDP growth, then Huntsman has a 55 percent chance, Romney 40 percent, Cain 25 percent, Perry 17 percent, and Bachmann 5 percent.

Notice that Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are not even considered in this model drawn up by Nate Silver.

It ultimately comes down to what the author has said many times; that Jon Huntsman, despite his poor performance in polls so far, is by far the best bet for the Republican Party against Barack Obama, BUT the Tea Party does not care for him; evangelical Christians will not like him for being a Mormon; and unless he can win New Hampshire, he will have no opportunity to move ahead, and right now it seems unlikely.

And since Romney has many of the same problems as Huntsman, as listed above, and has actually less of a chance than Huntsman among key GOP groups, it looks likely that the Republican Party will blow the chance they theoretically have to win the White House!

The Collapse of Rick Perry: The Disastrous Performance Which Improves The Image Of George W. Bush!

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Texas Governor Rick Perry started off his Presidential campaign with a roar, surging ahead of Mitt Romney in September with 23 percent, and in some polls even more that that.

By mid October, after disastrous debate performances, he fell to 12 percent, and now, after the rude, nasty, aggressive attacks on Mitt Romney at the Nevada debate last week, he has totally tanked to fifth place, with only 6 percent support, in the New York Times-CBS News Poll.

Herman Cain, the “flavor of the month”, is ahead with 25 percent, with Romney second at 21 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich with 10 percent, Ron Paul with 8 percent, and Rick Perry at 6 percent.

And now he has proposed a new tax plan which would make the rich even richer, and hurt the middle class and the poor. And he has embraced the “Birther” myth about Barack Obama, which has been revived by Donald Trump yet again. Perry has also come across as insensitive, divisive, controversial, and personally obnoxious competitor in so many ways, with his personality and viewpoints undermining his candidacy the more one examines him!

Perry is seen by many as a total disaster, and this has led to condemnations by many Republicans, who realize Perry is worse than George W. Bush ever was, and it is clear that the Bush family and its supporters, including brother Jeb Bush, the former Governor of Florida, and Karl Rove, the “Bush Brain” advisor, are working very hard behind the scenes to derail Rick Perry.

Perry, due to his large campaign chest, is going to be part of the race for a long time, but he is an embarrassment to many in the party who see a total calamity ahead!

Why Barack Obama Will Be A Repeat Of Bill Clinton Electorally, Rather Than Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, And George H.W. Bush!

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A lot of political observers seem to think that Barack Obama is doomed to lose re-election, just as Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush did in 1976, 1980, and 1992.

The author will contend that rather than that unfortunate history, Barack Obama will repeat the electoral experience of Bill Clinton in 1996!

The question, of course, is what is the rationale behind this thought of the author?

Gerald Ford–was an unelected President, coming after Watergate, challenged in the primaries by Ronald Reagan, an extremely charismatic individual, who almost took the nomination from him. Ford was unable to unite the party around him after the Reagan battle, despite dumping Nelson Rockefeller for Bob Dole for Vice President. Ford had little opportunity to convince the country that he was deserving of election, and yet ALMOST defeated Jimmy Carter, which he would have done if he had won a few more thousand votes in Ohio and Hawaii! Ford was not seen as all that capable to be President by many people, with the poor economy of the time.

Jimmy Carter–had a difficult last year in office, with the Afghanistan invasion by the Soviet Union, the Iranian hostage crisis, and the challenge in the primaries by Senator Ted Kennedy and Governor Jerry Brown. He faced a charismatic opponent in Ronald Reagan, and a third party opponent in John Anderson. He was not a warm personality, and came across as weak and ineffective.

George H. W. Bush–faced a primary opponent in Pat Buchanan, and a strong third party challenger in Ross Perot. His Democratic opponent, Bill Clinton, had a lot of charisma, and was helped by the strong showing of Perot. And Bush did not have a particularly likeable personality, more respected for his ability than his understanding of average Americans and their lives.

Bill Clinton–engendered strong feelings for and against during his first term, and had charisma dripping off him, as compared to Bush and Bob Dole, his 1996 re-election opponent. Times were good, and he looked strong in his battles against the GOP Congress run by Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. He had no opposition for the second term nomination, and his opponent, Dole, being 73 years old, did not help his challenge to Clinton. Also, Wall Street gave more financial support to Clinton to hedge their bets, frustrating Bob Dole!

Barack Obama–well liked, even by those who do not like what he has done, but he has accomplished a lot in office, particularly in foreign affairs and national security. He has brought about substantial domestic reform despite strong opposition from the Republican party, and has loads of charisma, and tons of funding, including as with Clinton, from Wall Street, which, even if opposed as they were to Clinton and now Obama, hedge their bets and support him more than the Republican nominee, just as with Bob Dole in 1996. Also, there is a good chance of a Tea Party right wing party rebellion if Mitt Romney, the likely nominee, is the choice of the Republican party. The opposition does not have a candidate to excite the nation, so although the economy is horrible, the likelihood is that more Americans will recognize the reality that one does not overcome a near depression overnight, and will decide to stick with Obama, just as they did in the height of the Great Depression with Franklin D. Roosevelt!

The Likeability And Empathy Factor In Presidential Politics

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A factor in how people vote that is often not discussed is what we might call the “Likeability and Empathy” factor.

The average voter wants to LIKE a candidate on a personal level, and feel that the candidate cares about his or her life, shows empathy toward the circumstances of one’s life.

This is particularly true of Presidential elections, when a voter realizes that he or she will have to look at and hear the voice of the winner for the next four years, so they want to like the candidate they vote for.

In that regard, Barack Obama has a great advantage over his GOP opponents, as he is eminently likeable, and is working on improving his empathy image, which has been somewhat lacking, and has been criticized.

Mitt Romney is not likeable, even by his opponents in the GOP race for the Presidential nomination, and seems unconcerned about the plight of the average American. John McCain and Mike Huckabee, among others, could not get along with the former Massachusetts Governor in 2007-2008, and this time around, it is clear that Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman certainly dislike him intensely.

But Newt Gingrich is also not likeable, nor is Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, or Ron Paul. They all demonstrate a mean spirited nature which undermines ability of people to trust them. Even Jon Huntsman comes across to many as a bit haughty in personality, leaving only Herman Cain, maybe, as likeable, but after saying people out of work or not rich should blame themselves, very likely to lose that image very quickly!

The problem for these GOP candidates is that they come across as not having any empathy toward average Americans, who are facing a crisis unmatched since the Great Depression, and therefore, with their mean spirited nature, they are not likeable in the way voters expect from their President.

So Barack Obama has a great edge in the “Likeability and Empathy” factor, and this should not be ignored as a factor in the upcoming Presidential Election of 2012.

The Nevada CNN Republican Debate: Romney Widens His Lead

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The Nevada CNN Republican debate tonight was a clear cut victory for Mitt Romney, but also a time of real conflict between Romney and Rick Perry and Romney and Rick Santorum.

Herman Cain was criticized broadly on his 9-9-9 plan and Romney on Romneycare in Massachusetts; but there was great contentiousness and confrontation throughout the debate, particularly between Romney and the two Ricks, who constantly interrupted the former Massachusetts Governor. Romney lectured both of them in a very strong manner, which helped his case, and the audience seemed quite supportive of Romney.

It seems to the author that despite Santorum and Michele Bachmann trying to draw attention to their differences with Romney and Herman Cain and Rick Perry, that neither gained enough to be a major factor in the Presidential nomination battle.

On the other hand, Newt Gingrich probably gained a bit more legitimacy, as did Ron Paul. Both obviously, even if one does not like their views on issues, are extremely intelligent, and are effective in asserting their views.

So Romney gained; Gingrich and Paul benefited; Perry and Cain did not come across well; and Santorum and Bachmann, despite valiant efforts, did not improve their position in the battle for the nomination.

While Perry has lots of money, and Cain has likeability, it would seem as if Gingrich and possibly Paul, could become the real threats to Mitt Romney, if there is any real possibility of denying him the nomination. But betting money would still be on Mitt Romney as the GOP Presidential candidate in 2012!

The Nevada GOP Presidential Debate: In The Ultimate State Of Illegal Immigration, High Umemployment, And High Foreclosures!

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It is extremely ironic that the Republican Presidential debate tonight in Las Vegas, Nevada, sponsored by CNN, is in the ultimate state of illegal immigration, high unemployment, and high foreclosures!

Here we have Herman Cain talking about electrified, barbed wire, 20 foot high fences to keep refugees from entering the country. He jokes about it, and also earlier had talked about having alligators in moats to stop illegal immigration. Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and even Mitt Romney talk tough about creating barriers, and being hardline about undocumented aliens, as if we are about to deport 11 million people who have become part of our society in a positive manner, but yet face discrimination in states such as Arizona and Alabama!

At the same time, the Republicans have no plans on job creation, and instead refuse to support legislation to keep teachers, fire fighters and police officers on the job, undermining the education and safety of American citizens. They refuse to back any programs for infrastructure or technology advancements, and to extend unemployment compensation to the most desperate! What a despicable state of affairs!

Also, Mitt Romney makes clear that there should be no slowing of foreclosures on housing, effectively throwing people out on the streets of America without any shelter, except maybe their cars, if they still own one!

Nevada is, in many ways, GROUND ZERO, on the most crucial issues of the day, and the Republicans will, hopefully, face tough grilling by Anderson Cooper and CNN on their hard hearted, “tough love”, approaches to crucial issues of survival for those less fortunate in our society!

The Washington Post-Bloomberg GOP Presidential Debate: Romney Still Ahead!

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The Washington Post-Bloomberg GOP Presidential debate tonight in New Hampshire was more of the same: Mitt Romney winning the debate!

Romney continued to look competent, confident, relaxed, smiling, and unruffled. He certainly had a good day, with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie endorsing him, and then sitting in the audience at the Dartmouth College debate in New Hampshire.

Herman Cain was given the seat next to Romney, due to his being second in recent polls, but he was constantly under attack for his 9-9-9 plan, which economists have said will not work, and would particularly harm poor people. It seems as if he probably did not win support based on his responses to the attacks, which seemed lame.

Rick Perry did not improve his standing, which has been in decline, and actually looked confused and uncomfortable when the camera happened to focus on him when he was listening to others speak.

Jon Huntsman, sadly, did not seem to improve his image, despite his great credentials, and it now seems unlikely that he will improve in the polls, unless miraculously he can build up in New Hampshire, the state he is counting on to boost his campaign.

MIchele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich did nothing spectacular to improve their chances, although Gingrich did gain applause for some of his rhetorical lines!

All of the candidates avoided specifics on the economy, and made many claims that were exaggerated, already being pointed out just a half hour after the debate, which simply focused on that subject. It was easier for them to condemn others and call for firings and blame, and to attack the Federal Reserve Board and Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The candidates made it clear they did not want to raise taxes one cent, and yet did not want to cut defense, something which is impossible in reality if taxes are not raised.

Did any of the candidates give hope that the economy would indeed be better under them than under President Obama? If anyone seriously thinks so, they are delusional!

It will be interesting to see the polls in the next few days, as to who ends up second behind Romney. Will Cain keep his second position, or who will replace him as the “anti Romney”? That is the question that most comes out of this debate, with another one scheduled next week, sponsored by CNN in Nevada, one of the states with the highest rate of unemployment!

Presidential Styles: Interpersonal Relationships Important In Level Of Success!

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The American Presidency is a complex institution, with 43 men so far having occupied that office, and the personalities of the Presidents have a great deal to do with the level of success they achieve.

Many have been shy or withdrawn in dealings with others, including the public, the Congress, and the news media, which may surprise the average person, wondering how they were able to win election. Among this group would be included Calvin Coolidge, Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush.

Others had great capabilities as communicators, but somehow could not translate it into warm relationships with Congress, including Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and now clearly, Barack Obama.

Then, there were those who knew how to get what they wanted, including Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Lyndon B. Johnson, and Ronald Reagan, keeping close in touch with Congressional leaders, charming them with White House meetings, including the opposition party!

And then there are those Presidents who don’t quite fit any of the above descriptions, including Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Gerald Ford, and George W. Bush. All were unique in their skills and abilities, having some successes and some failures in office.

A recent Washington Post opinion piece called Obama a “loner” President who finds it difficult to make Congressional relationships, even with his own party, and not particularly liking people as individuals, and much better speaking to the nation as a whole. This could be seen as a shortcoming, which could undermine Obama’s attempt to win re-election!

But then, Obama’s Republican challengers, particularly Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Herman Cain do not exactly engender a sense of warmth in dealing with others!

The “Dark Horses” Of The Republican Presidential Race: Ron Paul And Herman Cain

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It is still nearly three months to the first voting in the Iowa Caucuses on January 3, followed by the vote in the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada Caucuses, the South Carolina Primary, and the Florida Primary, all within the month of January!

The Republican Presidential race has gone from one favored candidate to another, including Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, with three other well known candidates floundering–Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich.

Meanwhile, two other candidates–Ron Paul and Herman Cain–ignored by the mainstream media and many political experts–are suddenly surging and drawing attention, and makes one wonder could either of them actually win the GOP Presidential nomination to oppose President Barack Obama in November 2012?

Paul has certainly been gaining more support, and his views on social and foreign policy issues resonate with many more voters than when he ran four years ago.

Herman Cain, who is African American and the CEO of Godfather Pizza, has been an even bigger surprise to many, and seems to arouse support in an emotional manner.

Today, at the Values Voters Summit in Washington, DC, a group of social conservatives, Ron Paul won 37 percent of the straw vote, with Cain second with 23 percent, way ahead of the other candidates.

Can this really happen–either one being the next nominee of the Republican Party? It seems highly unlikely, but after Barack Obama winning the Democratic nomination and the Presidency in 2008, who can be so sure that it could not happen in the Republican Party, and in the right (or wrong) circumstances lead to one of them in the White House in 2012?