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The Washington Post-Bloomberg GOP Presidential Debate: Romney Still Ahead!

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The Washington Post-Bloomberg GOP Presidential debate tonight in New Hampshire was more of the same: Mitt Romney winning the debate!

Romney continued to look competent, confident, relaxed, smiling, and unruffled. He certainly had a good day, with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie endorsing him, and then sitting in the audience at the Dartmouth College debate in New Hampshire.

Herman Cain was given the seat next to Romney, due to his being second in recent polls, but he was constantly under attack for his 9-9-9 plan, which economists have said will not work, and would particularly harm poor people. It seems as if he probably did not win support based on his responses to the attacks, which seemed lame.

Rick Perry did not improve his standing, which has been in decline, and actually looked confused and uncomfortable when the camera happened to focus on him when he was listening to others speak.

Jon Huntsman, sadly, did not seem to improve his image, despite his great credentials, and it now seems unlikely that he will improve in the polls, unless miraculously he can build up in New Hampshire, the state he is counting on to boost his campaign.

MIchele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich did nothing spectacular to improve their chances, although Gingrich did gain applause for some of his rhetorical lines!

All of the candidates avoided specifics on the economy, and made many claims that were exaggerated, already being pointed out just a half hour after the debate, which simply focused on that subject. It was easier for them to condemn others and call for firings and blame, and to attack the Federal Reserve Board and Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The candidates made it clear they did not want to raise taxes one cent, and yet did not want to cut defense, something which is impossible in reality if taxes are not raised.

Did any of the candidates give hope that the economy would indeed be better under them than under President Obama? If anyone seriously thinks so, they are delusional!

It will be interesting to see the polls in the next few days, as to who ends up second behind Romney. Will Cain keep his second position, or who will replace him as the “anti Romney”? That is the question that most comes out of this debate, with another one scheduled next week, sponsored by CNN in Nevada, one of the states with the highest rate of unemployment!

The “Dark Horses” Of The Republican Presidential Race: Ron Paul And Herman Cain

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It is still nearly three months to the first voting in the Iowa Caucuses on January 3, followed by the vote in the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada Caucuses, the South Carolina Primary, and the Florida Primary, all within the month of January!

The Republican Presidential race has gone from one favored candidate to another, including Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, with three other well known candidates floundering–Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich.

Meanwhile, two other candidates–Ron Paul and Herman Cain–ignored by the mainstream media and many political experts–are suddenly surging and drawing attention, and makes one wonder could either of them actually win the GOP Presidential nomination to oppose President Barack Obama in November 2012?

Paul has certainly been gaining more support, and his views on social and foreign policy issues resonate with many more voters than when he ran four years ago.

Herman Cain, who is African American and the CEO of Godfather Pizza, has been an even bigger surprise to many, and seems to arouse support in an emotional manner.

Today, at the Values Voters Summit in Washington, DC, a group of social conservatives, Ron Paul won 37 percent of the straw vote, with Cain second with 23 percent, way ahead of the other candidates.

Can this really happen–either one being the next nominee of the Republican Party? It seems highly unlikely, but after Barack Obama winning the Democratic nomination and the Presidency in 2008, who can be so sure that it could not happen in the Republican Party, and in the right (or wrong) circumstances lead to one of them in the White House in 2012?

The Crazy Presidential Caucus-Primary System Shows Up Again!

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It is amazing to the outside world and to many Americans how this nation goes about picking its presidential candidates of the major political parties,and it cries for reform pronto!

Just as in 2008 with the Democrats, now the Republicans in the state of Florida have decided they want an earlier date for their primary, and in so doing, they lose some convention delegates, and force the four earlier states that traditionally have voted first in the presidential caucuses and primaries to move them earlier to January, rather than February.

So Iowa’s caucuses will occur at the beginning of January, followed by New Hampshire’s primary approximately a week later, and then by South Carolina’s primary and Nevada’s caucuses, finishing up January with Florida voters participating in the GOP primary there on January 31.

This will force all of the candidates to increase their campaign time in these five states, as they lose at least a few weeks by the earlier dating of the beginning of the nomination process.

With many of the primaries and caucuses scheduled as regional events on March 6, it is still likely that by the “Ides of March”, March 15, that one Republican will have enough delegates to be the nominee of the party.

But the idea that rural, unrepresentative states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and to some extent, South Carolina, have such a major influence on the nomination, calls for massive reform of the whole system, but this is brought up every four year cycle, but never leads to change.

Florida, by breaking the rules and scheduling their primary earlier, and with them being the fourth largest state, and soon to be third, still seems ultimately the most important early state.

But there is no need to be envious of those who run, whether Democrat or Republican, as the whole nomination process is a mess and makes the seeking of the White House a true chore and challenge that wears many candidates out, including in support and financing!

A Major Challenge And Testing Ground For GOP Presidential Candidates: Five Debates In Six Weeks In September And October!

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The eight person Presidential race for the Republican nomination in 2012 now faces a major challenge and testing ground: Five debates over a six week period in September and October are scheduled, bound to thin out the race in a major way!

Debates scheduled to occur are as follows:

September 7 at the Reagan Library in California
September 12 in Tampa, Florida, site of the national convention next year
September 22 in Orlando, Florida
October 11 in Hanover, New Hampshire
October 18 in Las Vegas, Nevada

For political junkies, there is much to look forward to!

The Internal Struggle In The Republican Party: Minnesota Vs. Mormonism!

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With the announcement today that Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels will not run for the Republican Presidential nomination, the race seems more than ever to be one of FOUR who are likely to dominate vote getting in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, the early primary and caucus states next winter!

As one looks at the field, it seems clear that Newt Gingrich has self destructed in his first week as an official candidate. Rick Santorum seems unlikely to take off as a candidate, based on his own past crazy statements and walloping defeat for re-election in Pennsylvania in 2006. Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, and even Ron Paul, will make noise, but are unlikely to poll many actual votes.

So unless someone such as Chris Christie or Jeb Bush suddenly enters the race belatedly, there seem to be four major contenders for actual popular vote support in the primaries and the caucuses early on–Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and surprisingly, Michele Bachmann!

Bachmann is the favorite of the Tea Party people, more even than Ron Paul, who is seen as too old and flaky to be much of a vote getter. Even though she is outrageous in her statements and actions, Bachmann is likely to have a serious following in Iowa at the least, and could affect who of the other candidates benefits by her candidacy.

Bachmann, being from Minnesota, and therefore from the Midwest, poses a real challenge to former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who has been very careful to avoid outrageous statements and actions, and yet is competing for the Tea Party support and for the backing of Midwesterners. Iowa is a crucial state to both, so they are therefore at loggerheads as Bachmann could ruin Pawlenty’s chances. So expect the beginning soon of sustained attacks by each on the other, and increasingly so, as the campaign gets closer to the first vote test in Iowa, which has many evangelical Christians and Tea Party people, and will likely kill off either Bachmann or Pawlenty. So it is the battle of Minnesotan vs. Minnesotan!

But the 2012 race is also of Mormon vs. Mormon, as Jon Huntsman, former Governor of Utah, and seen as a moderate to some extent, is challenging Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, who is also often seen as a moderate. Both are working very hard to wipe such ideas out of voters’ minds, as both oppose health care and support Medicare reform along the lines of the Paul Ryan Budget plan. Both are much more electible on paper, but being Mormons and having the old image of moderation could harm both, and certainly, one will be hurt by the success of the other.

What is likely is that the nomination will come down to Pawlenty vs. one of the two Mormon politicians, with Huntsman being newer and fresher and more interesting a candidate.

So the final struggle is likely to be Pawlenty vs. Huntsman, and it would seem likely that Pawlenty would have the edge, but only if he can overcome the influence of Bachmann with Tea Party faithful.

For the election, Huntsman or even Romney would be a better bet to win than Pawlenty, but the Tea Party influence is such that the bet would be that Pawlenty will be the sacrificial lamb, with the likelihood that Barack Obama would win a major victory, possibly on the level of George H. W. Bush over Michael Dukakis in 1988!

The Effects Of The Latino-Hispanic Vote On The 2012 Presidential Election

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With the rapid growth of the Latino-Hispanic population, from one eighth in 2000 to one sixth of the population in 2010 according to the Census Bureau, the 2012 Presidential Election will be giving President Obama a tremendous edge in states that otherwise would be major battlegrounds.

Assuming a decent turnout for Obama among Latinos-Hispanics, as well as African Americans, Obama is now seen as likely, statistically, to win Nevada and Florida again and have a real shot at winning Georgia, which he failed to win in 2008.

Obama only needs to win 25 percent of the white vote in Georgia, 35 percent in Nevada, and just under 40 percent in Florida to win those states in the electoral college.

Obama’s call today for comprehensive immigration reform, calling on the Republican opposition to work together on this important issue, may be a political ploy, but realistically, if the GOP continues its hard line view on illegal immigrants, as in Arizona, the result is likely to be a smashing defeat in 2012, and this is not considering the issue that the Republicans seem unable to come up with a winner, someone that turns party members on and is likely to draw the votes of other than whites in the population.

It seems to the author that only Jon Huntsman, and possibly Mitt Romney, even have the potential to appeal to non white voters in 2012, but the odds of either being the nominee seems remote at this point of time.

The Republican Vice Presidential Nominee In 2012: Marco Rubio, Brian Sandoval, Or Susana Martinez?

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The reality that Hispanics are now one out of every six Americans, and that they will continue to grow as a percentage of the American population over future decades, is ringing an alarm bell among Republicans, who are starting to realize that if they cannot gain at least a substantial percentage of Hispanic voters in 2012, they have no hope to win the Presidential election against Barack Obama.

So three names come forward as likely Vice Presidential possibilities as a result: Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval, and New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, all newly elected statewide.

But since Florida is the fourth largest state in electoral votes (29), and soon to surpass New York and become number three; and with Nevada (6) and New Mexico (5) being among the smallest states in population and electoral votes even with growth, it is very obvious that Marco Rubio, who has not yet hit the age of 40, is the person to watch for Vice President, no matter who the Republicans ultimately nominate for President!

The Census And Reapportionment: Will The Republicans Self Destruct Their Theoretical Advantage By Their Anti Immigration Stand?

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The census figures for 2010 that came out two days ago indicate, theoretically, that the Republican Party should benefit, as most of the states that gained House seats are considered “red states”.

Specifically, Texas gained four seats, Florida two seats, Georgia one seat, South Carolina one seat, Arizona one seat and Utah one seat, along with Nevada gaining one seat and Washington State also gaining one seat.

Notice that these states have very high immigration rates, especially Hispanic–particularly Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada, and the facts show that the vast majority of new population in these states is due to immigration growth, whether legal or illegal.

So while the GOP can be expected to gain seats in the House of Representatives, as well as the state legislatures for the short term, it is also reality that if they continue to alienate Latino voters who are legal with their anti immigration stand, the bulk of the new population that can vote will be more likely to vote Democratic, which is the normal tradition anyway for Latinos, except for Cubans in Florida.

So even with short term gains by the Republicans, they could indeed “shoot themselves in the foot” politically long term, and rue the day they decided to take a hard nosed stand against immigration, both legal and illegal, particularly in dealing with the children of illegals, who should not be blamed for what their parents did, and therefore deny them the right to become citizens via military service or college education, leaving them in limbo in the only country they remember!

The apparent refusal of the Republicans to consider the DREAM Act will likely reverberate, and benefit the Democrats, and a party that only appeals to whites is doomed in the long run, as the population of the country will be majority non white by 2040 and after!

So this will be a growing factor in American politics as the years of this new decade go by!

Importance Of Latino Vote For Democrats!

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The Democratic Party suffered major losses in the Midterm Elections of 2010, but it could have been far worse had it not been for solid Latino support in many states!

A couple of seats in the House of Representatives were saved because of Latino votes in Arizona, and the Senate seats of Harry Reid in Nevada, Michael Bennet in Colorado, and Barbara Boxer in California were retained due significantly to the Latino vote in those states for the Democrats!

Additionally, the Latino vote also helped Governor Pat Quinn to win in Illinois, and Jerry Brown to win the Governorship of California!

The only place that the Latino vote seemed to help Republicans was in Florida, where Marco Rubio won the Senate seat, but the difference is that Latinos in Florida are more heavily Cuban American, a voting bloc which tends to be strongly Republican. With Marco Rubio himself being a Cuban American, and replacing an elected Cuban American, Mel Martinez, who held the seat until he resigned in 2009, Florida is therefore a special case!

It is clear that the Latino vote can have a dramatic effect on the fortunes of  the Democratic Party in the 2012 elections, and be a decisive factor in the re-election campaign of President Barack Obama!

Female Vs. Female Political Races And More Women Running Against Men: A Record Breaking Year?

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A fascinating part of the 2010 election cycle is the fact that there will be more female vs. female races than we have seen before in American history!

For the Senate, the only such race will be Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer against former Hewlett Packard CEO and Republican Carly Fiorina in California!

For the office of Governor, there will be two all female races–in New Mexico, where Republican Susana Martinez will run against Democrat Diane Denish; and Oklahoma, where Democrat Jari Askins will compete against Republican Mary Fallin! Both Democrats, by the way, have been Lieutenant Governor of their states and still are!

In Congressional races, the most notable is Republican Congresswomen Michele Bachmann of Minnesota against Democratic state legislator Tarryl Clark!

But also running in South Dakota for the state wide Congressional seat are Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin against Republican state representative Kristi Noem!

Of course, there are other women running for high office, but against men! Among them are gubernatorial candidates in California (Republican Meg Whitman), South Carolina (Republican Nikki Haley), and Florida (Democrat Alex Sink). For the Senate, we see Sharron Angle (Republican of Nevada) and Linda McMahon (Republican of Connecticut). Additionally, there are numerous Congresswomen running for reelection, and many women who are opposing men in and outside of the House of Representatives for House seats.

Will this be a major “Year of the Woman” in American politics? Maybe it will not be a record breaker, but certainly women are playing a growing role in American politics, and of course we are not talking here about the numerous women who sit in state legislatures, city councils, boards of education, and other elected bodies, or who are running to be part of these government structures!