Jon Huntsman

Jeb Bush: Can He Do What Only Abraham Lincoln, Richard Nixon, And Ronald Reagan Did?

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Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, the son and brother of two Presidents, is again having his name bandied about for President of the United States, despite his mother, Barbara Bush, saying there have been enough Bushes in the White House, and that more than three or four families have talent for the Presidency. While saying that repeatedly, she always adds that her son is best qualified to be President, so it is an odd statement, to say the least!

But Speaker of the House John Boehner went out of his way to suggest Jeb Bush would be a great nominee, and certainly, the “Establishment” Republicans on Wall Street see him as more likely now than ever before, as their front line of defense against the Tea Party Movement and Ted Cruz et al, and the libertarians and Rand Paul.

Both Cruz and Paul, and really EVERY other suggested nominee, has all kinds of issues with their extreme right wing tilt. That is why New Jersey Governor Chris Christie seemed so appealing to many, after his wide victory for a second term. But now the scandals that have erupted have besmirched his reputation, and in any case, Christie would have had great trouble winning in Iowa, South Carolina, and other states as he is from the Northeast, and seen as too much like John McCain and Mitt Romney, failed GOP Presidential candidates, who are disliked by right wing talk show hosts, conservative think tanks, and the Tea Party right wingers.

So who is left for the “Establishment”? Really, only former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who also was Ambassador to China, under President Obama, an excellent, and really the best choice, but with not a chance in hell of being able to compete, because he is too “moderate” by comparison, too smart, too intelligent, too interested in science and world affairs, too independent minded, and even not allowing his Mormon faith to dictate public policy views!

Huntsman would have the best chance to win of any Republican, but the party has a death wish, and he will not be the nominee. More likely, it would be one of a large group of horrible candidates, including, not only Cruz and Paul, but also Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, and other “nightmarish” candidates!

So the only place to turn for the “Establishment” is to another Bush, who is comparatively a moderate conservative, who has not come across as a “whacko” in office and in his public statements. He has shown tolerance on immigration issues, as with his brother, President George W. Bush, and he seems to have a comparatively open mind.

But his challenge, beyond overcoming the Bush name, after the damage his brother did in eight years in the Presidency, is that Jeb Bush has been out of public office for ten years by 2016, after eight years served as Governor of Florida. While a few military people, including retired ones, have become President, only three non military people have become President with extended periods out of public office.

Abraham Lincoln had 12 years since his one term in the House of Representatives, until his Presidential triumph in 1860.

Richard Nixon had eight years since his defeat for the Presidency in 1960, until his victory in 1968.

Ronald Reagan had six years since his Governorship of California until his victory in 1980.

Note Nixon and Reagan had a shorter number of years, than Jeb Bush has, and Nixon ran for Governor of California in 1962, and Reagan competed for the Presidential nomination in 1976, both two years after they left public office.

And Lincoln, while twelve years since his last time in public office, ran for and lost the Senate race in Illinois against Senator Stephen Douglas in 1858, ten years after his one term in the House of Representatives, and just two years before he won the Presidency.

So Jeb Bush really has no exact comparison to Nixon and Reagan, and comes closest to Lincoln.

The ultimate question is whether Jeb Bush can copy Lincoln, or even Nixon or Reagan. The betting odds on his nomination are less than 50 percent for now, and far less in a race against any Democrat in 2016, particularly Hillary Clinton!

“Moderate” Conservatives And The Future Of The Republican Party

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Some observers have argued that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie performed “well” at his nearly two hour press conference, on Thursday, answering question after question from journalists about the Fort Lee I-95 scandal, blocking traffic for four days in September, and threatening the health, safety and security of tens of thousands of people all over the lack of an endorsement of the Fort Lee Democratic Mayor for the Republican Governor in the state election campaign.

The fact that Christie held the longest press conference of any politician in history, and spoke longer than the doomed President William Henry Harrison, who spoke an hour and a half when inaugurated in 1841, dying from pneumonia he gained from the rainy, cold weather, dying exactly a month later, is looked upon as a sign of stamina and accomplishment.

But there are many unanswered questions, and Christie is known to have a vicious reaction to critics in the state government, having fired some, and having taken from the State Senate President, Richard Codey, who has been Acting Governor several times, his security protection over a dispute. How petty and nasty this man is, and we already know how he has been disrespectful to teachers and parents and journalists, and revels in being a bully, which he denied, much like Richard Nixon said he was not a crook, revealing himself similarly as exactly that!

Christie could face impeachment or recall, and could be facing criminal prosecution, ironic for a man who was US Attorney, prosecuting and imprisoning others, sometimes unjustly, but making “corpses” on the way to power, with his arrogance and his swagger. It would be only “just desserts!”

But meanwhile, the right wing in the GOP is reveling in the realization that this comparatively “moderate” conservative, who was the frontrunner in many polls for the Presidency, and even led Hillary Clinton in some polls, looks now as if he has fallen on his own sword, as far as the Presidential race of 2016 is concerned.

So who can so called “moderate” conservatives turn to in stead of Christie?

Is there any Republican Governor who could be seen as a “moderate” conservative?

Is there any Republican Congressman who could be seen as a “moderate” conservative?

Is there any Republican Senator who could be seen as a “moderate” conservative?

The silence is deafening as every Republican officeholder today in Congress and the Governorships is far from a “moderate” conservative, other than Christie himself!

They are all “hook, line and sinker” tied to the Tea Party Movement directly, or afraid to challenge that right wing, anarchistic, libertarian movement that hates government, while they all make big salaries and take lobbying money in large amounts, while demonizing poor people, single mothers, children, elderly, veterans, and minorities, and pontificate how the world is coming to an end because of gay marriage! And of course, they are still promoting the “Birther” myth about Barack Obama, while hailing Canadian born Ted Cruz as legitimate to run for President, and loving that he resembles so closely the appearance and tactics of the late Wisconsin “witch hunter of Communism,” Senator Joseph McCarthy!

So who can moderate conservatives turn to?

There are only two realistic possibilities, with neither likely to get very far in the search for a Republican Presidential nominee, and therefore, the GOP is on the road to electoral destruction as a result.

Those two possibilities are former GOP Governors, who have a brain and credentials, but are hated by the extremists on the right:

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman (also Ambassador to China)

Bush has the problem that he is a “Bush”, and has been out of office since the end of 2006, and his brother, George W. Bush, ruined the family brand.

Huntsman has the problem that he is too damned intelligent and knowledgeable, is an independent minded Mormon with an open mind, and had the nerve to work for Barack Obama in China for two years! Imagine that!

Huntsman is, by far, the better of the two, but neither is likely to be a serious contender, and in fact, it could be that neither will announce. But if they do, the right wing talk show hosts, the Koch Brothers and their manufactured Tea Party Movement, and the think tanks will obliterate them, even as now they are celebrating the “political death” of Chris Christie, much too arrogant and abusive as he is!

But really, except for being somewhat more “moderate”, how is Christie really different from those to his right? Their personality traits and character are not really all that different to begin with!

So the GOP is worse off because of the Christie Scandal!

Governors And The Presidential Election Of 2016

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It has often been pointed out that more Governors have been elected President over the course of American history than Senators.

From 1900 on, the following Presidents were earlier Governors of their states—Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.

The argument is that being a Governor prepares one better for the Presidency than serving in the national government in Washington, DC.

Whether this is true or not, the argument now is that the national government, and particularly the Congress, is so engaged in stalemate and gridlock, that the best choice in the Presidential Election of 2016 would be to go once again for a Governor or former Governor, as occurred four times of the past six Presidents, and seven of the past ten national elections.

So if that is the case, what is the market among Governors?

First, the Democratic side:

Martin O’Malley of Maryland
Andrew Cuomo of New York
John Hickenlooper of Colorado
Mark Warner of Virginia
Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Jerry Brown of California
Howard Dean of Vermont
Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Dannel Malloy of Connecticut

Now the Republican side

Chris Christie of New Jersey
Jeb Bush of Florida
Scott Walker of Wisconsin
Bobby Jindal of Louisiana
Rick Perry of Texas
John Kasich of Ohio
Jon Huntsman of Utah
Nikki Haley of South Carolina
Mike Pence of Indiana
Brian Sandoval of Nevada
Susana Martinez of New Mexico
Rick Scott of Florida

So, at least in theory, nine former or sitting Democratic Governors and twelve former or sitting Republican Governors are potential Presidential nominees.

Having said that, it is clear that some of these two groups are highly unlikely to be a candidate, or to have any realistic chance to be the nominee, including for the Democrats: Brown, Dean, Malloy, and Patrick, and for the Republicans: Scott, Martinez, Sandoval, Pence, Haley, and sadly (because he would be the best choice for the GOP long term), Huntsman.

For the Democrats, O’Malley and Cuomo and Warner (who has also served in the Senate), would be the best choices, were it not for the “800 pound gorilla” of Hillary Clinton and the slightly smaller version of Joe Biden. Were it not for them, these three listed Democrats would be a great term to compete for the nomination. Hickenlooper is also a good candidate, but would not be considered as likely to have a good chance, and Schweitzer might very well run, based on recent comments and activities, but the odds for him, especially against Clinton and Biden as things now stand, are extremely high of failure, and even of being mostly ignored by political pundits.

For the Republicans, Christie and Bush would be the most likely to have a real opportunity for the Presidency, but with the Tea Party Movement, neither is very popular, to say the least. Walker might be a better bet on that score, with Jindal seeming less attractive as time goes by, and Perry a real long shot based on his past performances. The “dark horse” to watch would be Kasich, who had a long career on Capitol Hill and knows how Washington works, and despite his mixed record in so many areas, is personally appealing, unlike any of those listed In this paragraph, in many ways the most appealing personally other than Huntsman.

If one had to bet which of each list would have the best chance, all things being equal, one would say O’Malley for the Democrats and Kasich for the Republicans, but the odds are that it will be someone from Capitol Hill–Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden for the Democrats, and Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or Paul Ryan for the Republicans, with the Democrats having the clear edge in the Electoral College, because of the support of the Atlantic Coast and Pacific Coast, and the likelihood of strong support in the upper Midwest and Illinois and Iowa, along with Virginia, an unmatchable scenario for the Republicans, as we look at the political situation as 2013 ends, but always subject to changing times that are unpredictable.

Disllusionment With Washington Opens Up Possibility Of State Governors Again Having Advantage For Presidential Race!

Ronald 3 Comments

Much of the time in American history, there has been disillusionment with the Washington DC establishment, and a desire to have an “outsider” being our President.

Only three Presidents of the past century were elected directly from the Senate—Warren G. Harding, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama—while a total of six Governors or former Governors were elected to the Presidency—Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush. Additionally, former Governors who were Vice President first, and succeeded during the term—Theodore Roosevelt and Calvin Coolidge–were also elected to a full term.

So the present anger at Washington and everything it represents opens up new opportunities for sitting or former Governors in both parties, such as follows:

Democrats—Andrew Cuomo of New York, Martin O’Malley of Maryland, Deval Patrick of Massachusetts

Republicans-Chris Christie of New Jersey, Jeb Bush of Florida, Jon Huntsman of Utah, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, John Kasich of Ohio, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Rick Perry of Texas, Susana Martinez of New Mexico

Having said this, one still has to wonder if the Democratic Governors can overcome Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or Mark Warner or Elizabeth Warren or Amy Klobuchar or Cory Booker.

And one has to wonder if the Republican Governors can overcome Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum and others.

The Tea Party Attack On Chris Christie: Wonderful News For Democrats!

Ronald 4 Comments

The right wing Tea Party attacks on New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, making clear that his victory means nothing for the Presidential campaign of 2016, is great news for Democrats, as it indicates that the Republican Party is insuring its own defeat by attacking moderate conservatives such as Chris Christie, along with Jeb Bush and Jon Huntsman.

We have seen Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and James Inhofe taking negative stands on Christie’s victory, and if any of the first five are the GOP nominee in 2016, it will make for an easy landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, or any other Democratic nominee for the White House!

And the bitter attacks of right wing Talk Show hosts Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and others only adds to the destruction of the GOP brand!

If the GOP cannot appeal to African Americans, Hispanics, women, gays and lesbians, young voters, and labor, it has absolutely no possibility of regaining the White House or control of the Senate anytime soon, and the House of Representatives is also put into play.

The rhetoric will fly fast and furious as the GOP self destructs before our eyes, and it will be a display that makes the 2012 Republican brand look more rational by comparison, although it most certainly was not that at all!

Potential Republican Presidential Candidates And Foreign Policy, As Compared To Hillary Clinton And Joe Biden

Ronald 2 Comments

The Republican Party is offering potential Presidential candidates who have no clue on world affairs, or have dangerous views on foreign policy, and/or have no experience to speak of in diplomatic situations.

The following potential candidates have NO credentials at all in this important area in a world that is changing rapidly:

Rand Paul
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan
Rick Santorum
Rick Perry
Chris Christie
Jeb Bush
Bobby Jindal
Scott Walker
John Thune

it is true that Rand Paul and Marco Rubio sit on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and that Jeb Bush’s brother and father were President of the United States, and foreign policy has been discussed within that family.

But compare that to Hillary Clinton, who was Secretary of State for four years, and learned about foreign policy under her husband, President Bill Clinton, in the 1990s.

And Vice President Joe Biden had 36 years in the Senate, including time as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and now is in his second term as Vice President, intimately involved in foreign policy issues.

So NONE of the GOP potential Presidential candidates have any real, valuable experience, except in speaking out on issues they know nothing about!

Foreign policy will be a most important issue in 2016, so who could the GOP run who could compete with either Hillary or Joe, and give them a real challenge?

The only person who fits this profile is former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China, and earlier Ambassador to Singapore, Jon Huntsman, who is a moderate mainstream conservative. He is very talented, brilliant, multilingual including Chinese, and knows and understands world affairs!

But would the Republican Party have the brains and intelligence to choose Huntsman as their Presidential nominee?

The answer is ZERO, and because of that, the GOP does not offer experienced, qualified candidates for the Presidency on foreign affairs, such as Richard Nixon, George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole, and John McCain in the past!

Sniping Back And Forth Among Republicans: Wonderful To Witness!

Ronald 8 Comments

It is very clear that the Republican Party is bitterly divided on strategy toward President Obama, and on the issue of foreign policy and national security.

So we are witnessing sniping back and forth, and this is a hint of what is to come, as the Presidential rivalries heat up in the coming months!

Examples of the sniping are that between Arizona Senator John McCain and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, with it being clear that the two Senators have no love lost for each other.

At the same time, we see Governor Chris Christie supportive of the gathering of intelligence by the National Security Agency and Central Intelligence Agency, due to the reality that New Jersey suffered the second most losses on September 11, 2001, and being critical of those who are libertarian, such as Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky!

Also, New York Congressman Peter King of Long Island has attacked the Tea Party Movement Republicans who were against aid to New York and New Jersey after Super Storm Sandy last fall!

And Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee of Utah, and Marco Rubio of Florida have been criticized for their threat to shut the government down if ObamaCare is not defunded, with major critics being John McCain, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, Roy Blunt of Missouri, and Richard Burr of North Carolina!

And Establishment Republicans such as former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, former Republican National Chairman Michael Steele, and George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove are shaking their heads at the splintering of the party, and the recklessness of many of the younger members of the party in the House of Representatives and Senate, as they well know that the future of the party is in tatters, if this extremist wing is allowed to become the face and image of the party! Finally,

Finally, Iowa Congressman Steve King’s ranting against immigrants has led to condemnation by Speaker of the House John Boehner and others in the Republican Party.

It looks more than ever as if the GOP is on the way to the worst Presidential defeat for their party since the demise of Barry Goldwater in 1964, nearly fifty years ago, and even Goldwater now looks “moderate” by comparison, and far less reckless!

George W. Bush And Immigration Reform: Is Bush The Last GOP President We Will Ever See?

Ronald 6 Comments

Former President George W. Bush, who has been very quiet, and stayed out of the public spotlight for four and a half years, has come out in full support of the Senate bill on immigration reform, a cause he lost in 2007, but feels deeply about, and he was able to gain 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004, compared to Mitt Romney’s 29 percent in 2012.

Bush spoke of a “benevolent spirit”, of a “confident and successful nation” which embraces immigration, but the Republican Party of 2013 is very different than the “compassionate conservative” image that Bush cultivated, and he has little clout or respect among Republicans today.

So it is clear that unless the Tea Party Movement cancer is overcome, we are likely going to look back in the future, and say that George W. Bush was the last Republican President we would ever see take the oath of office as the occupant of the Oval Office!

A new moderate, centrist political party will eventually arise to replace an extremist, right wing party that fails to understand that the American people will not accept their mean spirit, their refusal to accept the demographic changes in America, their desire to make the rich wealthier and push the middle class into poverty, and denounce those who are poor, blaming them for their own degradation!

The American people want an optimistic spirit, a compassionate government, and on this issue, at least, former President George W. Bush; his brother Jeb Bush; Senator John McCain; former China Ambassador Jon Huntsman; and a small percentage of Republican Senators and others affiliated with the party understand this, and could be the basis of a new party which gets the message of the vast majority of the American people!

The Beginnings Of The Republican Field For The Presidency In 2016 Start To Emerge: More Circus Like Than 2012!

Ronald 11 Comments

Anyone who is clear headed knows that the GOP Presidential field of 2012 was a circus, with such horrible, embarrassing candidates as Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, and Newt Gingrich, all having the effect of making Mitt Romney the LEAST horrible candidate for the White House!

But already, in July 2013, we can see the likely Republican field for the Presidency in 2016 emerging, and if anything, it is more circus like than 2012!

It begins with the two “Ricks”, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry, both true embarrassments to themselves and to others, but both believing that God is behind them, and that they will emerge as the next President of the United States, despite the reality that they both represent regressive, mean spirited, and reactionary views out of tune with the changing American electorate!

Then, there are the following potential candidates, all of whom have major flaws and shortcomings that insure they will have a rough time becoming the nominee of the Republican Party for President:

Ted Cruz
Rand Paul
John Thune
Paul Ryan
Scott Walker
Bob McDonnell
John Kasich
Bobby Jindal

Then, there are the potential candidates who would have some appeal to the mainstream, but likely will self destruct due to their catering to the Tea Party Movement, or their refusal to do just that, including:

Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Jon Huntsman

Also, do not dismiss the concept of a Senator Liz Cheney, daughter of the former Vice President, running for President if she wins the Wyoming Senate seat coming up in 2014!

But in the end, the Republican battle for the Presidency is a lost cause, as it is clear that Hillary Clinton, or any other Democrat, will have the Electoral College edge for the Presidency, along with the popular vote edge in a nation moving away on a long term basis from the Right Wing message that the Republican Party seems bent on perpetuating, at its own destruction!

Mitt Romney Right On One Matter: Alternatives For 2012 GOP Nomination Were Worse Than Him!

Ronald 6 Comments

A forthcoming book by Dan Balz of the Washington Post reveals that 2012 GOP Presidential nominee Mitt Romney did not wish to run, and his family overwhelmingly did not want him to run, but that he decided to do so because of his conclusion that the alternatives for the nomination were worse than him!

For once, and only once, Mitt Romney is correct in his judgment, as the alternatives of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul were all much more unacceptable, basically a comedy team!

Only Jon Huntsman, who had no chance to be the nominee, was a far better choice than Romney!

The Republican Party had the worst combination of choices for President of a major political party in the entire history of Presidential elections, and they deserved the defeat they suffered, and will, assuredly, face the same future in 2016!