“Establishment” Republicans

The Crucial Importance Of A Democratic Senate And President For The Future

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The battle for Democratic control of the House of Representatives, the need to gain 17 seats, is a bitter one, with right wing groups spending millions to make sure that the Republicans keep control, and prevent any furthering of the Barack Obama agenda.

Due to the reality of gerrymandered districts, created by Republican legislatures and governors, as a result of the 2010 midterm elections, the concept of majority rule has been distorted, with Democrats winning more total votes nationally in Congressional races, but Republicans able to win a majority of seats, and oppose everything Obama wants, and cause a shutdown of the government in October.

Due to the extremism of the Republican House as a result of the “hostage” situation created by the Tea Party Movement, the 2013 session of the Congress has been the worst since records were kept in 1947, but now the “establishment” Republicans are declaring war on the Tea Party right wingers, and trying to insure that the mainstream conservatives, led by Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, will be able to control the future.

At the same time, right wing pressure groups are trying to defeat a group of conservatives in House and Senate primaries, so the civil war may give Democrats the opportunity to gain enough seats to make Nancy Pelosi Speaker again in the 114th Congress of 2015-2016. That would allow the budgetary power of the House Ways and Means Committee to be back in Democratic hands, giving them the opportunity to reverse regressive policies perpetrated by Republicans since 2011.

But even more important is the keeping of a Democratic Senate majority, with the ability to get appointments of the President confirmed by a majority, rather than needing 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. This is particularly important for federal district and circuit court nominees, and for the eventual approval of Supreme Court nominees on the aging Court.

Part of this is also the need to have a Democratic President after 2016, as that reality, plus a Democratic Senate, would guarantee that social conservatism would lose out on such issues, as abortion, gay marriage, civil liberties, civil rights, and so many other issues that are crucial to the long range future of making America a nation of fairness, justice, equality, and tolerance!

Tea Party On The Defensive, And The Civil War In The Republican Party Begins!

Ronald 22 Comments

The results of the off year election yesterday in New Jersey and Virginia demonstrate a defeat for the Tea Party Movement, and the beginning of the civil war in the Republican Party for its soul!

Chris Christie became the front runner for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2016, as a result of his smashing victory over Barbara Buono, the Democratic nominee, for Governor. Christie attracted Democrats, Independents, and Latinos, something no Tea Party advocate could accomplish, and he has become, clearly, the “establishment” choice for now in the Republican Party.

Meanwhile, Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who appealed to the Tea Party Movement, and came out with outrageous stands on interference with sexual privacy, abortion, and global warming, and was also involved in a financial scandal that also undermined Governor Bob McDonnell, lost to Terry McAuliffe, backed by Bill and Hillary Clinton, who he had raised money for in the 1990s. Cuccinelli’s “Puritan” and anti science views caused women, in particular, to vote against him, making clear that if the GOP continues its “war on women” and their rights, they will be slaughtered in Congressional races in 2014 and the Presidential race in 2016.

Before anyone gets too excited about Christie, though, one must realize that the New Jersey Governor is a definite conservative on the issues–health care, education, labor unions, abortion—and he gained most of his support from his reaction to Superstorm Sandy a year ago, including his willingness to work with President Obama directly.

That will be his Achilles heel, however, in GOP primaries and caucuses, as he competes against right wingers such as Ted Cruz and Rand Paul and Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, and there is no guarantee that Christie will survive bruising, bloody primary and caucus fights.

But even if, somehow, he does make it through to the nomination, do not forget that Chris Christie has a short fuse; is highly temperamental when he does not like what one is saying, or opposes him; is still what this author said in the past (a bully); a man who could cause war with his bluntness, as he lacks all diplomacy and tact; and there are hints of corruption and inappropriate actions in his past record, and even some supposed connections to the Mafia.

One can be sure that ALL leads will be followed, and that Christie, who caused “red flags’ for Mitt Romney, making the 2012 GOP nominee pass Christie by for Vice President, will be fully vetted, and it could destroy any hopes he has for the Presidency.

To believe that Chris Christie will be the next President still means one has to be delusional. By comparison, he might be seen as “better” than Cruz, Paul, Rubio, Ryan and others, but ONLY by comparison, nothing more than that!

113th Congress Far Worse Than Least Productive Congress In American History, 112th Congress!

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The 112th Congress of 2011-2012 produced the fewest laws in modern history, a total of 283. It was thought that was a low that could not be surpassed.

But the present 113th Congress is reaching a new low that is hard to conceptualize, as it has passed only 36 laws, and the public opinion rating of Congress is at an all time low, about 10 percent, with a poll showing that a majority of Americans believe that a random group of people chosen to replace the present Congress could do a better job!

Both parties are suffering in public opinion, but the Republican Party brand is in free fall, as a result of shutting down the government for 16 days and threatening rejection of the raising of the debt ceiling. The GOP is involved in a civil war between the establishment and the libertarians and Tea Party Movement, and Wall Street is working to support establishment, mainstream conservatives over the Tea Party brand in Congressional races for 2014, with the distinct possibility that the Democrats have a chance to gain control of the House of Representatives, and keep control of the US Senate.

The gerrymandering of House districts, however, makes taking over the House a major problem for Democrats for the remainder of the decade, but since only 17 seats are needed to gain the majority, the potential is there, if the public opinion ratings of the Republicans continue their collapse that is going on at the moment.

The problem is that a year is a long time in American politics, and anything can happen, as people have short memories!

The One Virtue Of The Government Shutdown: John Boehner And Mitch McConnell Will NOT Support Another Such Shutdown!

Ronald 5 Comments

The one virtue that comes out of the federal government shutdown, which cost the Gross Domestic Product $1.5 billion a day, a total of $24 billion for 16 days, is that it has convinced GOP leaders that the tactic will not work,

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has stated that he will NOT allow another government shutdown, as he is well aware how it has hurt the Republican brand, with nothing gained by the action. He will face a Tea Party opponent in the Kentucky Senate primary, including the opposition of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and Senator Ted Cruz, but this should make a good case for opposition to those Tea Party lunatics who have no concern about the effect on the American economy of what they supported.

Speaker John Boehner has not stated quite the same sentiments, but it is clear that he will not support such a looney concept the next time, as he ended up backing away at the brink of the crisis.

Yes, McConnell and Boehner are both to be condemned for their handling of the situation, but at the end, both were ultimately responsible when push came to shove, and they and the Establishment Republicans have learned a hard lesson,

With the help of Wall Street, the Tea Party lunatics will face challenges in the primaries from mainstream Republican conservatives, and hopefully, some will lose their seats either to these establishment types, or the seats will swing over to the Democrats, with the chance of a Democratic takeover growing, and the likelihood of a Republican takeover of the US Senate a less likely scenario, as a result of the government shutdown and debt ceiling debacle.

As Barack Obama declared, it is time for serious action on immigration, tax reform, and the farm bill, instead of wasting time on what is ultimately a lost cause, the destruction of ObamaCare by repeal, which is NOT going to happen.

Anyone who seriously thinks the Tea Party Movement will triumph in 2014 and elect Ted Cruz President in 2016, with a Republican House and Senate, is certainly using hallucinatory drugs, and needs to be hospitalized for mental observation!

Obama Brilliant: Call For Congressional Vote Will Gain Public Support And Rent Asunder The Republican Party Big Time!

Ronald 24 Comments

President Barack Obama, in the midst of what may be his biggest foreign policy crisis, the planned bombing of Syria over the use of chemical weapons on innocent civilians, has displayed wisdom, coolness, and good judgment in calling for a Congressional discussion and vote, even though he has the authority as Commander in Chief to take action in the name of international law and common decency, morality, and ethics!

The Congress should be called back by Speaker of the House John Boehner immediately to meet on Tuesday, the day after Labor Day, six days early, as this is a crisis which requires debate and vote as soon as possible!

But even if it goes another week, until debate begins, this move by Obama insures that no one can say he took reckless action in a hasty manner!

Of course, the Congress COULD decide NOT to back military action, but that is extremely unlikely, as the Senate is controlled by Democrats, and there are Republicans, a lot of them, who will back Obama, including John McCain and Lindsey Graham in the leadership, but others as well, even if some Democrats refuse to do so!

And in the US House, most Democrats will back the Commander in Chief, and not all that many Republicans, certainly not a majority, are necessary to back Obama!

But what will occur out of this controversy is that the Republican Party, already engaged in its own “civil war” between the so called “establishment” and the Tea Party lunatics, will now see the party rent asunder, cracking into pieces, which will affect the 2016 nomination battle, and the long term future of both groups within the party, with a good chance the GOP, as we know it, will NOT survive!

It will be fun to see the McCain-Graham and other mainstream conservatives fighting against libertarian Rand Paul, and likely Ted Cruz and others of the Tea Party group, and will force Marco Rubio to show if he has “cajones”!

The rhetoric will fly fast and thick, and will show up the Tea Party as dangerous, reckless, lunatic, delusional, and other colorful adjectives, and Rand Paul will see his isolationism, his naivete, his stupidity, his delusional nature, demonstrated for all to see!

And the nation and Barack Obama will come out looking intelligent, knowledgeable, courageous, principled, and we will thank ourselves for the fact that Barack Obama is our Commander in Chief in tough times, as was the case with Lincoln, Wilson, FDR, Truman, JFK, Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Clinton before him!

Sniping Back And Forth Among Republicans: Wonderful To Witness!

Ronald 8 Comments

It is very clear that the Republican Party is bitterly divided on strategy toward President Obama, and on the issue of foreign policy and national security.

So we are witnessing sniping back and forth, and this is a hint of what is to come, as the Presidential rivalries heat up in the coming months!

Examples of the sniping are that between Arizona Senator John McCain and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, with it being clear that the two Senators have no love lost for each other.

At the same time, we see Governor Chris Christie supportive of the gathering of intelligence by the National Security Agency and Central Intelligence Agency, due to the reality that New Jersey suffered the second most losses on September 11, 2001, and being critical of those who are libertarian, such as Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky!

Also, New York Congressman Peter King of Long Island has attacked the Tea Party Movement Republicans who were against aid to New York and New Jersey after Super Storm Sandy last fall!

And Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee of Utah, and Marco Rubio of Florida have been criticized for their threat to shut the government down if ObamaCare is not defunded, with major critics being John McCain, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, Roy Blunt of Missouri, and Richard Burr of North Carolina!

And Establishment Republicans such as former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, former Republican National Chairman Michael Steele, and George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove are shaking their heads at the splintering of the party, and the recklessness of many of the younger members of the party in the House of Representatives and Senate, as they well know that the future of the party is in tatters, if this extremist wing is allowed to become the face and image of the party! Finally,

Finally, Iowa Congressman Steve King’s ranting against immigrants has led to condemnation by Speaker of the House John Boehner and others in the Republican Party.

It looks more than ever as if the GOP is on the way to the worst Presidential defeat for their party since the demise of Barry Goldwater in 1964, nearly fifty years ago, and even Goldwater now looks “moderate” by comparison, and far less reckless!

Defunding ObamaCare Demonstrating Cracks In Republican Party And Its Final Demise!

Ronald 25 Comments

It looks more than ever that a full scale civil war is erupting in the Republican Party in Congress, with 60 Tea Party radicals in the House and 12 Senators joining together to create a new budget and financial crisis with President Obama and the Democrats, unless defunding of ObamaCare is accomplished, but facing vehement opposition from the majority of Republicans in the Senate, and leaving Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, trying to avoid the crossfire and save his own seat in next year’s midterm elections!

The Tea Party is a bunch of anarchistic lunatics, and prominent Senators, including Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ted Cruz of Texas, and Marco Rubio of Florida, by allowing themselves to associate with this extremist group, are setting up. not only a political donnybrook among their own competing desires to be the GOP Presidential nominee, but insuring a conflict of massive proportions with “Establishment” Republicans, and even, fellow conservatives, who see what they are attempting to do to destroy funding of ObamaCare as suicidal, giving the Democrats a fantastic platform which could help to wipe out the Republican majority House of Representatives, and any chance of the GOP to gain six seats and control of the US Senate!

Among the Republicans who have denounced any move on defunding ObamaCare, while not agreeing with the program, are:

Tom Coburn of Oklahoma
Ron Johnson of Wisconsin
John McCain of Arizona
Roy Blunt of Missouri
Richard Burr of North Carolina

Mitch McConnell is trying to stay out of the crossfire, and so is Speaker of the House John Boehner, who is facing pressure from Michele Bachmann and other Tea Party House members.

The more rational Republicans listed above, while certainly strong conservatives, see the GOP being portrayed as reckless and being run by the inmates of an insane asylum, if they were to create a new fiscal crisis, at a time when they desperately want to have the possibility of Republican control of both houses!

Can one just imagine now what it will be like when the ambitious Tea Party Presidential seekers compete against each other, and face the Establishment types in the caucuses, primaries, and national convention three years from now?

It will be great entertainment, great political theater, and we will all be able to watch and witness the disintegration, the dissolution, the crumbling, and the destruction of a once great political party, insuring what will happen anyway, due to the Electoral College math—the election of a Democratic President and a stronger Democratic Party in the future!

The Republican Party is fighting against demographic change and the tides of history, and they are insuring their vanishing from American politics if they continue their destructive path, which seems like an ongoing tornado that cannot be stopped! They MUST stop listening to FOX News Channel and conservative talk show hosts, who have no concern about the future, other than their own financial gains and notoriety!

The Coming Battle For The GOP Presidential Nomination: Marco Rubio Vs. Ted Cruz, With Rand Paul As Wild Card!

Ronald 86 Comments

It is becoming increasingly clear that the battle for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2016 is going to be between Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, with Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky being a “wild card”!

The possibility of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, or Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan to be the nominee seems very distant.

So it will be two Hispanic (Cuban) Senators battling one another, one trying to work with Democrats on an immigration reform bill, and the other on the warpath against all Democrats, as well as Rubio himself, unwilling to make any deals or promote any cooperation with the “enemy” And hoping to benefit from the battle between Rubio and Cruz is Rand Paul, who with his libertarian bent, will have a major problem attracting many conservatives, including the neoconservatives and the Establishment Republicans of Wall Street.

In the end, it will not matter, as no Republican can overcome the Electoral College advantage of the Democrats, as outlined yesterday in a blog entry.

And the concept that Cuban American Senators, who represent three and a half percent of Hispanics and Latinos, will be able to convince large numbers of Mexican Americans, who are 65 percent of all those with Spanish heritage, to vote Republican, is laughable.

So it will be an interesting sideshow, the battle among Rubio, Cruz and Paul, but at the end, we are likely to have Hillary Clinton as our next President!

The Battle Between Bush I Loyalists And Bush II Loyalists Begins Over Chuck Hagel Nomination For Defense Secretary

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Hard to conceive, but the battle between loyalists to President George H. W. Bush and loyalists to President George W. Bush has begun over the nomination of former Republican Senator Chuck Hagel to be Barack Obama’s Secretary of Defense in his second term in the Presidency.

The “old guard” Establishment Conservatives around the first President Bush, including Brent Scowcroft, James Baker, Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice, and the former President himself, have no major problems with Hagel.

On the other hand, the neoconservatives, including Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and conservative ideologues like Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard, Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, Elliot Abrams, Frank Gaffney, John Bolton, and Charles Krauthammer all will find Hagel wanting in his foreign and defense policy views. It is not clear where President George W. Bush will come down, but in theory, he would agree with his key advisers and consultants mentioned above. Note that Powell and Rice are more linked to father Bush, and both were certainly involved in major battles with Cheney, Rumsfeld, and others during the second Bush Administration.

It will be an interesting battle, and it is likely that many Republican Senators will refuse to back Hagel, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, newly sworn in Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who has particularly gone on the attack already against Hagel.

A key person to watch will be Senator John McCain of Arizona, who still harbors resentment that Hagel backed Obama over him in the 2008 Presidential campaign, and vehemently disagrees with Hagel on issues involving Afghanistan and Iraq and Iran. McCain has been attacking Obama on every front lately, but will he concede that Obama has a right to the Defense Secretary he wants?

Stay tuned for the fireworks, particularly to wonder where Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky will take their stand–with the old line establishment figures, which include also many military and naval leaders; or with the neoconservatives who brought us into long, drawn out wars in Iraq and Afghanistan with very little success!

Missouri, Bellwether State, MAY Decide Senate Balance And Presidential Race In 2012

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Missouri, the “Show Me” state, is also the ultimate bellwether of all states in the past century.

Since 1904, the state has ALWAYS gone to the winner of the Presidency EXCEPT twice. In 1956, it voted for Adlai Stevenson over Dwight D. Eisenhower by about 4,000 votes, and the same vote margin occurred in 2008, with John McCain winning over Barack Obama.

Beyond the history of Missouri, the blunder of Todd Akin, the Tea Party and Republican nominee for the Senate talking about “legitimate rape”, has outraged not only his opponent, Senator Claire McCaskill and women across America, but also the Republican Establishment, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Senator John Cornyn, head of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, as well as Karl Rove, head of the American Crossroads SuperPAC that is raising hundred of billions of dollars for the Republican Congressional and Presidential campaign.

However, Mitt Romney has not shown the same willingness to demand that Akin withdraw from the Senate race, and that may be because his running mate, Paul Ryan, cosponsored legislation to deny abortion to rape victims, by supporting “personhood” language that would make fetuses defined as “persons’ before birth.

Additionally, social conservatives are backing Akin, demonstrating the split in the GOP between them and the Establishment Republicans who see electoral disaster ahead.

As a result, the Akin controversy could do the following in November:

Throw the state and its ten electoral votes to Barack Obama, possibly replacing Wisconsin’s ten electoral votes, with the assumption that Paul Ryan might be able to carry his home state for the Republican ticket. It would make the path to victory for Barack Obama a lot easier.

Help Claire McCaskill to retain her Senate seat, and in so doing, improve the chances of the Senate staying in control of the Democrats.

Have an effect nationally on the percentage of the women’s vote that would go Democratic in Congressional districts, possibly affecting the balance of seats in the House of Representatives, and assisting the opportunity of the Democrats to regain control of the chamber.

So this mess could be the decisive turning point of the 2012 election cycle, even If Akin ultimately gets out of the Missouri Senate race. The damage may have been done already, and no chance to reverse the damage!