Arizona

The Unusual Nature Of The 2008 Election, In More Ways Than One!

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2008, the year of the economic collapse in America, unrivaled since the Great Depression of the 1930s, was a very unusual election year.

This was the first time we had an African American Presidential nominee, and he won the election, despite a majority of white men voting against him.

The country had both candidates for President born off the mainland of America–John McCain in the Panama Canal Zone in 1936, and Barack Obama born in Hawaii in 1961.

The country had the greatest gap in age between the two Presidential candidates in American history–a difference of 25 years between McCain and Obama.

The country had the first college professor (although part time) winning office since Woodrow Wilson 96 years earlier, in 1912.

Barack Obama was the first President from Illinois since Abraham Lincoln 148 years earlier, in 1860.

Barack Obama was the first Northern President elected since John F. Kennedy in 1960, and is the only Democrat to have at least 51 percent of the total vote since World War II, with the exception of Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

The year 2008 saw the first Republican woman nominee for Vice President, Sarah Palin.

John McCain became the second Arizona Senator to lose the Presidency, after Barry Goldwater 44 years earlier, in 1964.

So the 2008 election was a path breaking election in more ways than one!

The All Crucial Hispanic-Latino Vote And The Presidential Election Of 2012: The Doom Of Mitt Romney

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There are many Anglo Americans (non Hispanic and Latino) who wish to imagine that their population will continue to control voting power and election results into the long term future.

That is an illusion, a fantasy, out of touch with reality!

The facts are that Hispanics and Latinos are the largest minority group in America, and combined with Asian Americans and African Americans, will tip to the majority of population, by estimate of the US Census Bureau, in about 30-35 years, by the mid 2040s.

Nothing is going to stop this, and it will influence all Presidential elections and Congressional elections more and more as the years go by.

So the facts about the Hispanic-Latino vote are worth noticing.

We have 50.5 million people of Spanish ancestry, one of every six Americans in 2010, a 13 percent increase since 2000. By 2030, it is expected that there will be a 21.8 percent increase to 78 million Hispanics-Latinos. By 2050 projections, there will be 27.8 percent of the population of this ancestry, about 111 million Americans.

More than six of every ten Hispanics-Latinos were born in America, with Mexicans being nearly two thirds of all people of this heritage, almost 32 million out of 50.5 million, and with Puerto Ricans, (who are automatically citizens), being the second largest group with 4.6 million, over 9 percent of the population of Hispanics-Latinos.

Cubans are third with 1.8 million; Salvadorans a surprising fourth with 1.6 million; Dominicans fifth with 1.4 million, Guatemalans sixth with about one million; Colombians seventh with about 900,000; Hondurans eighth with 600,000; Ecuadorans ninth with about 550,000; and Peruvians tenth with about 525,000.

In order, there are smaller numbers of Nicaraguans, Argentinians, Venezuelans, Panamanians, Chileans, Costa Ricans, Bolivians, Uruguayans, Other Central Americans, and Paraguayans.

51 percent of Hispanic-Latino registered voters are Democrats, with 31 percent Independents, and 18 percent Republican. But only 11 million are registered, and the push is on to register more Hispanic-Latino voters, particularly by the Democrats.

About two thirds of Hispanic-Latino voters have gone for the Democrats in their voting behavior in the past ten years, with the high point for Republicans being George W. Bush in 2004 with 44 percent, dropping to 31 percent for John McCain, and at the moment, 14 percent for Mitt Romney, who has taken a very hard line backing Arizona and other states which have passed discriminatory profiling laws.

If that 14 percent vote holds, or only goes up a bit, then the projection is that Barack Obama will win about 55 percent of the popular vote against Mitt Romney, what could be termed a landslide, since it insures that Obama would win all Hispanic growth states, including Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, and get a larger percentage of the vote in Texas, Arizona and Georgia, all states that over time would trend Democratic in future elections. This does not include other states that are certain to go Democratic in 2012, including California, New York and Illinois.

If Mitt Romney won John McCain’s percentage of Hispanic-Latino votes, he would still lose the popular vote by 54-46, and if he won the 44 percent that George W. Bush won in 2004, he would still lose by 53-47 under typical simulations.

When Mitt Romney said last weekend that if he does not improve his percentage of Hispanic-Latino support, he is finished, he was absolutely correct!

But it is also the Independent and women’s vote that is crucial, plus the issue whether Evangelical Christians, who think of the Mormon Church as a cult, will be willing to come out and vote for Romney, when he is so much a chameleon, hard to believe what he says, whether he has any principles , and whether he can be trusted to keep his present right wing views.

If Romney attempts to modify his right wing views on immigration, he would be likely to lose those conservatives who are unhappy with him, while not winning anywhere near the percentage of votes of John McCain or George W. Bush!

So Mitt Romney is in an impossible position electorally in 2012!

Arizona Ripe For Pickup By Barack Obama In Presidential Campaign Of 2012

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Arizona, the center of anti immigrant legislation, and arguably the ‘looniest” state in America, at least according to Bill Maher, is ripe for pickup by the Democratic Party and Barack Obama in the Presidential campaign of 2012.

Yes, it is true that the legislature is overwhelmingly Republican, and that both Senators (John McCain and Jon Kyl) are Republicans, and that the majority of the House delegation is Republican, and that Governor Jan Brewer is Republican, but yet with the growing Hispanic and Latino population, now about 30 percent, it looks as if Arizona is, over time, going to go the way of California, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado and vote Democratic.

Even Texas in the future, certainly by 2020, is likely to tip Democratic as long as the GOP continues its nativist mentality toward immigrants.

No one is saying that Obama will win Arizona, but there is a good chance that he could, and even if he does not, Arizona is likely to be a closer race than it was in 2008, when an Arizona Senator named John McCain won his home state, but not by as much as one would have thought (about 8.5 percentage points of the vote and 196,000 popular votes).

Disturbing Social Trends: Anti Gay, Anti Labor, Anti Women, Anti Immigrant, Anti Black

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The news seems to be more disturbing by the day, as social trends are moving more and more in the direction of hate, prejudice, bias, and narrow mindedness.

Witness the following examples:

In New Jersey, an immature college student. Dharun Ravi, is convicted on all charges of a hate crime against a gay roommate who he streamed a liaison with another man on a webcam, causing that young man, Tyler Clementi, to commit suicide. What a stupid, and self destructive act by a young man who has now destroyed his life, after having done the same to the unfortunate Clementi, which will lead to Ravi’s prison sentence and likely deportation to India. So we have two promising young men at Rutgers University who have been tragically transformed by the prejudice and discrimination that is too widespread in this country, including by so called “religious good Christians”, which have led not just to this incident, but to the crisis of bullying that has caused many other suicides of gay youth, and this backed by right wing conservatives allied with the religious fanatics who do not promote the love of God, which they claim they believe, while practicing hypocrisy.

Then we have the example of a law firm in Deerfield Beach, Florida, which fired a whole group of workers who dressed in orange shirts for work, planning for “happy hour’ on Friday evening! Just for wearing an orange shirt, these people are summarily dismissed, and Florida state law, being that the Sunshine State is a “right to work” state, the employer can dismiss without any just cause or explanation, an outrage to all working people, who see conservatives and businessmen condemn labor unions which try to make work conditions better for all of us, even those not in labor unions. The average American has benefited from the labor movement over the past century, but yet labor unions are pilloried, and workers are abused, as with this example! And witness the anti labor actions in Wisconsin, Ohio, and elsewhere that have occurred in the past year!

The fight against women’s right to privacy and their dignity continues with restrictive legislation on contraception being pursued in yet more states, most recently in Arizona and Pennsylvania, on top of the outrageous vaginal probe law in Virginia and similar actions elsewhere.

Immigrants are facing widespread discrimination, whether legal or illegal, in Arizona, Alabama and elsewhere, and now we have the case of a basketball player, who is Puerto Rican and a citizen, facing chants of where his green card is, at a game at the University of Southern Mississippi. Immigrants are being abused, harassed, and victimized daily in the discriminatory, nativist mood that this nation has become obsessed with in recent years.

And African Americans, as always, face greater discrimination, so we have the case of a black teenager in Sanford, Florida, shot to death by a Neighborhood Patrol volunteer, who thought this young man was dangerous and suspicious, even though all he had on him was some Skittles and a soda, but leading to being shot in the chest and killed, and so far, no prosecution of what is obviously an unjustifiable action. It does not add to the image of Florida as to its handling of racial matters, reminding us of the days of segregation and lynching in the state’s past a half century and more ago!

The country is disintegrating from within socially, a very worrisome issue that must be addressed, with the one bright spot being media reporting and exposure, and the reality that liberals and progressives will not stay silent in the midst of these disturbing social trends!

The Ides Of March: Significant In The Past And The Present!

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Today, March 15, marks the anniversary of the assassination of Julius Caesar in the Roman Republic in 44 BC, so well depicted by William Shakespeare.

But in America, it is marked by the speech of President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1965, calling for the Voting Rights Act to stop discrimination in voting for African Americans in the South.

Ironically, 47 years later, we are seeing many states, primarily in the South and Midwest, trying to deny the right to vote for the elderly, college students, the poor, and minorities by onerous Voter ID requirements, in many cases for people who have voted for decades without trouble, but now are being told they cannot vote in this year’s Presidential election.

This is all designed by Republicans and conservatives in their effort to defeat President Barack Obama by any means they can find, because they do not have the issues to win the election without utilizing dishonesty. And yet they claim they are trying to prevent voter fraud, which is only a few cases in many millions, far less than even one thousandth of one percent in the past decade!

So the Obama Administration, through Attorney General Eric Holder, has brought lawsuits against South Carolina and Texas, as well as Arizona and Alabama on other issues of racial and ethnic discrimination related to voting and basic human rights. And many Midwestern and Southern states, other than those mentioned, are also setting out to abuse the Voting Rights Act, trying to take us back to the era of Jim Crow voter laws, that denied poor and minority voters their basic rights!

Also, today marks the beginning of what is seen as an end to our engagement in Afghanistan, as President Hamid Karzai is calling for Allied forces to retreat to bases, and remove themselves from Afghan villages. This is the reaction to the tragic massacre by one American soldier last week, the murder of 16 civilians, including nine children and three women and four men, as they slept in their village a mile away from an American military base; and the earlier burning of Korans by American soldiers, leading to the killing of several soldiers by Taliban terrorists.

America has been in Afghanistan more than a decade, and the war is leading to no improvement worth the continuation of the sacrifice of our troops, or those of our allies.

Afghanistan has been the doom of Alexander the Great in the ancient world; the British Empire in the 19th century; the Soviet Union in the late 20th century; and now the US and allied nations in the 21st century! It is time to expedite our exit, and just use drones and the air force against Taliban and Al Qaeda terrorists. Making Afghanistan a democracy is, sadly, a lost cause!

So March 15 past and present has significant meanings we must not forget!

The Clash Of The Future Now: Arizona As Ground Zero

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The state of Arizona is a perfect example of a right wing state clashing with the future, and it is now Ground Zero.

This is the state of Governor Jan Brewer, just about the most despicable woman politician, not an easy thing to say when one thinks of Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, but she fits the bill with her words and actions, including her disrespect shown to the President Barack Obama by pointing her finger at him, and lying about it and many other things.

This is the state of Senator Jon Kyl, thankfully retiring at the end of this year, with his former respectable image destroyed by evidence of bias, prejudice, and loads of stupid statements in the past few years.

This is the state of Senator John McCain, once respectable and moderate, but now old and grouchy and ready to take America into another Middle Eastern war anytime.

This is the state of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, being investigated on charges of violating the rights of prisoners and mistreatment of Hispanics, whether legal or illegal, and not caring about image or violations and abuses, as he promotes a “tough guy” image embarrassing to his state.

This was the state of Russell Pearce, who thankfully was recalled by the voters of his state senate district, but was infamous for anti immigrant and pro gun legislation seen as very extreme.

This is the state of Paul Babeu, Pinal County Sheriff, another “tough guy” and hardline against illegal immigration, who is now shown to have had a sexual relationship with an Hispanic male, which has now become a scandal and will hamper his attempt to serve as a Republican in the next Congress.

This is the state which has a state senate which has banned ethnic studies courses for Hispanics as undermining their “Americanism”, and a state legislature which passed the infamous SB 1070 immigration bill now being challenged by the US government in court.

This is the state which has been judged by NATIONAL JOURNAL to have the second most conservative House of Representatives delegation, only behind, regrettably, my resident state of Florida. Notice that I say “resident”, as this author and blogger still identifies as a New Yorker, the state he lived in, went to school in, and worked in, until moving to Florida in 1989. The fact that New York’s House delegation is rated seventh most liberal, behind only Hawaii and five New England states makes this author proud!

Getting back to Arizona, the state, despite these disgraceful “public servants” and legislative record of discrimination and prejudice, is rapidly changing demographically, and can best be described as having two groups migrating to the state over time—older white retirees, and young Hispanics and Latinos, which guarantees continued clashes, but with young Hispanics and Latinos having the advantage for the future.

Thirty percent of Arizona is now Hispanic, compared to 58 percent white, and over the next decade, it is possible that whites will become less than the majority of Arizonans, and this will affect its politics dramatically.

Some think Arizona could go to Barack Obama, in the Presidential Election of 2012, although that still seems unlikely. But by 2020 and after, the Democrats will have a great advantage, as will be the case in Texas as well.

So the white population is facing a future in which it will NOT control the agenda, the state legislature, or the House delegation or the Senate seats. This is the clash of the future, already displaying itself now, as Arizona is becoming Ground Zero in the recognition of the transformation of America that will be national in the next generation!

A “Brokered” Republican Convention Possible? YES!

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With the struggle going on for the Republican Presidential nomination, a scenario of a “brokered” convention looms.

IF Mitt Romney does not win Michigan and Arizona next Tuesday, and/or loses Ohio and other states on March 6, the “Establishment” Republicans, terrified at the thought of Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich as the party nominee, COULD work together to prevent a majority for either of them, and create a “brokered” convention.

If that were to occur, the first contested convention since 1976, when Gerald Ford defeated Ronald Reagan by fewer than 100 delegate votes (a losing campaign, by the way), then former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, or Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan COULD emerge as the nominee.

It is clear at this time that trying to predict what will happen politically this year is still very much up in the air, as foreign policy or economic crisis could transform the race not just for the GOP, but also for President Barack Obama!

The Advancement Of Gay Marriage Rights In California And Washington State

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Events of this week are very promising regarding the expansion of gay marriage rights.

California’s Ninth Circuit Court has declared Proposition 8, which banned gay marriage in 2008 as unconstitutional, upholding a district court ruling, and this makes it likely that gay marriage will be on the Supreme Court docket very soon, possibly even this year, already full of turning point cases on the Obama Health Care plan, voting rights, and illegal immigration restrictions in Arizona and Alabama.

Additionally, the state of Washington is about to become the seventh state to allow gay marriage, after passage by the state legislature and a soon to be signing by the governor of the state.

So Washington joins Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, and Iowa as states that allow gay marriage, along with Washington DC, and hopefully, it will return to California where it was legal for a period of time before being overturned.

Twenty to thirty years from now, when gay marriage is a normal thing, many will wonder what was the fuss back in the early part of the century, much like when one looks back to before 1967, one wonders why the big deal over racial intermarriage, which was not legal until a Supreme Court decision in 1967.

Marriage cannot be forced on any religious group, but there is no legal reason why gay marriage cannot be done outside of religious institutions that reject change. It is a question of basic human rights, and equal treatment under the Constitution!

Arizona Governor Jan Brewer: The Most Despicable Woman In Public Life!

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Controversy has surrounded other woman politicians, including Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, but neither, or any other woman, quite matches the level of despicable behavior of Arizona Governor Jan Brewer.

Brewer, who never would have been Governor without the move of Janet Napolitano to become Barack Obama’s Secretary of Homeland Security, has proved to be the most outrageous in her behavior and policy making.

Brewer re-emerged in the news this week when she confronted President Obama on the tarmac at the Phoenix Airport and pointed her finger at him in an accusatory manner, a terrible moment of disrespect, worse than anything any Republican officeholder has done before. It is an escalation of the total lack of dignity and respect on the part of Republicans toward our President, never matched in American history! If such a lack of respect had been shown toward George W. Bush by a Democratic officeholder, we would never had heard the end of it, but conservatives applauded her rudeness!

Brewer is so concerned about illegal immigration in her state, without any concern for the loss of life of many refugees who die in the Mexican and Arizona desert. She claims that the Obama Administration has done nothing on illegal immigration, when Obama has increased the number of National Guard troops on the Arizona-Mexico border dramatically.

But even worse than her lack of respect for Obama, and her demagoguery on illegal immigration, is Brewer’s lack of concern about the loss of human life of Arizona residents who need life saving transplants, and are being denied those procedures under the Medicaid program, because the governor cannot find funds to cover it, despite the realization that she has the ability to find ways to raise the money if she really cared.

This is a woman who talks the anti abortion viewpoint, but has no concern about the loss of life of people who have life threatening conditions, and should be given what they need no matter what the cost, including if necessary, god forbid, a tax increase on the very wealthy, who would not miss the small amount of extra taxes, but would be able to feel good that they had helped others to survive and prosper after a transplant.

Instead, these wealthy people are only too willing to spend money, as Sheldon Adelson of Nevada is doing, to support their favorite candidate, in this case Newt Gingrich, to promote their own selfish agendas! In fact, if Sheldon Adelson can give Gingrich $10 million for his campaign, why can’t he personally pay for the transplants of these Arizona victims?

What kind of human being could sleep at night, knowing that by her refusal to do what needs to be done for sick people, most of them young or middle age, that she is condemning them to death, as has happened in a couple of cases of a group of what is now 96 survivors who, apparently do not matter, but if they were fetuses, they would matter!

Jan Brewer is a total disgrace in more ways than one, and an embarrassment who should be repudiated by all decent people! And Sheldon Adelson should “cough” up the money for these 96 Arizonans, in what would amount to a “drop of water” in the “ocean” of his wealth! And he could also take a tax deduction for charity if he did so!

Gabrielle Giffords Leaving Congress: Hopefully Temporary Exit

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Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, victim of an assassination attempt in Tucson just over a year ago, has made a miraculous recovery, and has been an inspiration to everyone of every political persuasion.

Absent for the past year while recovering, and only returning to vote once, the Congresswoman has now decided that she needs more time to recover from her wounds, so she is resigning from her seat to allow her district to have a full time member representing them.

This is a courageous and principled stand, but it causes sadness among fans of Giffords, who wonder if she will ever return to Congress.

While no one can truly know the future, the odds seem excellent that in a few years, being more fully recovered in every way, that Giffords will come back and run for public office again. A key event to consider will be Senator John McCain’s seat in 2016, when McCain will be 80 years old, and supposedly, will decide to retire, making for an open Senate seat.

But meanwhile, full recovery is the emphasis, and the future will come on its own. Meanwhile, only the best can be wished for this wonderful woman, the best example of what we should wish for in American politics and its future!