US Census Bureau Population Projections

The All Crucial Hispanic-Latino Vote And The Presidential Election Of 2012: The Doom Of Mitt Romney

There are many Anglo Americans (non Hispanic and Latino) who wish to imagine that their population will continue to control voting power and election results into the long term future.

That is an illusion, a fantasy, out of touch with reality!

The facts are that Hispanics and Latinos are the largest minority group in America, and combined with Asian Americans and African Americans, will tip to the majority of population, by estimate of the US Census Bureau, in about 30-35 years, by the mid 2040s.

Nothing is going to stop this, and it will influence all Presidential elections and Congressional elections more and more as the years go by.

So the facts about the Hispanic-Latino vote are worth noticing.

We have 50.5 million people of Spanish ancestry, one of every six Americans in 2010, a 13 percent increase since 2000. By 2030, it is expected that there will be a 21.8 percent increase to 78 million Hispanics-Latinos. By 2050 projections, there will be 27.8 percent of the population of this ancestry, about 111 million Americans.

More than six of every ten Hispanics-Latinos were born in America, with Mexicans being nearly two thirds of all people of this heritage, almost 32 million out of 50.5 million, and with Puerto Ricans, (who are automatically citizens), being the second largest group with 4.6 million, over 9 percent of the population of Hispanics-Latinos.

Cubans are third with 1.8 million; Salvadorans a surprising fourth with 1.6 million; Dominicans fifth with 1.4 million, Guatemalans sixth with about one million; Colombians seventh with about 900,000; Hondurans eighth with 600,000; Ecuadorans ninth with about 550,000; and Peruvians tenth with about 525,000.

In order, there are smaller numbers of Nicaraguans, Argentinians, Venezuelans, Panamanians, Chileans, Costa Ricans, Bolivians, Uruguayans, Other Central Americans, and Paraguayans.

51 percent of Hispanic-Latino registered voters are Democrats, with 31 percent Independents, and 18 percent Republican. But only 11 million are registered, and the push is on to register more Hispanic-Latino voters, particularly by the Democrats.

About two thirds of Hispanic-Latino voters have gone for the Democrats in their voting behavior in the past ten years, with the high point for Republicans being George W. Bush in 2004 with 44 percent, dropping to 31 percent for John McCain, and at the moment, 14 percent for Mitt Romney, who has taken a very hard line backing Arizona and other states which have passed discriminatory profiling laws.

If that 14 percent vote holds, or only goes up a bit, then the projection is that Barack Obama will win about 55 percent of the popular vote against Mitt Romney, what could be termed a landslide, since it insures that Obama would win all Hispanic growth states, including Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, and get a larger percentage of the vote in Texas, Arizona and Georgia, all states that over time would trend Democratic in future elections. This does not include other states that are certain to go Democratic in 2012, including California, New York and Illinois.

If Mitt Romney won John McCain’s percentage of Hispanic-Latino votes, he would still lose the popular vote by 54-46, and if he won the 44 percent that George W. Bush won in 2004, he would still lose by 53-47 under typical simulations.

When Mitt Romney said last weekend that if he does not improve his percentage of Hispanic-Latino support, he is finished, he was absolutely correct!

But it is also the Independent and women’s vote that is crucial, plus the issue whether Evangelical Christians, who think of the Mormon Church as a cult, will be willing to come out and vote for Romney, when he is so much a chameleon, hard to believe what he says, whether he has any principles , and whether he can be trusted to keep his present right wing views.

If Romney attempts to modify his right wing views on immigration, he would be likely to lose those conservatives who are unhappy with him, while not winning anywhere near the percentage of votes of John McCain or George W. Bush!

So Mitt Romney is in an impossible position electorally in 2012!