Democratic Senate Candidates: What Are The Odds For The Senate In 2013-2014?

Presently, the Democratic Party has 51 seats in the Senate, plus two Independents (Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont), who caucus with them.

What are the odds of the Democrats keeping 53 seats, but at least having a majority of 51 without the Vice President casting the tie vote, and possibly gaining one or two seats?

The odds seem excellent at least to keep control and possibly gain a seat or two, based on recent polling.

At the optimum, IF every one of the contested five Republican seats were to be won, and every Democratic seat was retained, the Democrats could control 58 seats, but that is not, realistically, going to happen.

But a possible gain of one or two seats is possible, when considering all of the contested races.

If, as stated in an earlier entry, the Democrats gain three of the five contested seats of Republicans, most likely in Arizona, Maine and Massachusetts, but lose in Indiana and Nevada, they could have 56 seats, but not all Democratic contentious races are seen as likely to be won.

Those Democrats in races seen as competitive but likely to win include:

Florida—Senator Bill Nelson against Republican Congressman Connie Mack IV.

Michigan—Senator Debbie Stabenow against former Republican Congressman Peter Hoekstra

Missouri—Senator Claire McCaskill against Republican Congressman Todd Akin

Montana–Senator Jon Tester against Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg

Ohio—Senator Sherrod Brown against Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel

Eleven other seats also seem safe, but there are seven highly contested seats that are more problematical.

Connecticut—Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy against Republican Linda McMahon, the owner of the World Wrestling Entertainment organization, who ran against Richard Blumenthal in 2010 and lost, but now is seen as a slight favorite, taking away a Democratic seat if that occurs.

Hawaii—Democratic Congresswoman Mazie Hirono against former Republican Governor Linda Lingle, a race of a Japanese American vs a Jewish American, with Hirono slightly favored, keeping the seat Democratic.

Nebraska—Former Democratic Governor and Senator and Presidential contender Bob Kerrey, against Republican state legislator Debbie Fischer, a Tea Party favorite, with Fischer favored, although Kerrey is a major figure of the past now returning to Nebraska, but if Fischer wins, the seat switches parties from retiring Ben Nelson.

New Mexico—Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich against former Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson, with Heinrich a slight favorite to keep the seat Democratic.

North Dakota—Past state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp against Republican Congressman Rick Berg, with Heitkamp running ahead and if winning, would keep the seat Democratic.

Virginia—former Governor Tim Kaine running against former Republican Governor George Allen, with Kaine ahead and expected to keep the seat Democratic.

Wisconsin—Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, an openly lesbian member of the House, against former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson, with Baldwin running ahead and would keep the seat Democratic.

Best guess is that Hawaii, New Mexico, North Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin will stay Democratic, but Connecticut and Nebraska might switch to the Republicans.

So IF everything works out as projected by the author in the earlier entry on the Republican held seats, it means that seats would remain in the same party’s hands, EXCEPT:

Connecticut and Nebraska would go Republican from Democratic.

Arizona, Maine and Massachusetts would go Democratic from Republican.

So the end result would be a Senate of:

54 Democrats, including Independents Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine.

46 Republicans

Meaning: a ONE seat gain for the Democrats!

So out of the 23 seats that were Democratic or Independent, 21 would remain Democratic.

Out of the 10 seats that were Republican, 7 would remain Republican.

So we have a slightly greater Democratic Senate, if this all works out, and we shall see how accurate this projection is when the elections take place 17 days from now!

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