Day: July 18, 2010

The Tea Party Caucus: Likely The Republican Party’s Worse Nightmare! :(

The Tea Party Movement may have success this year in the midterm elections, and some Republican officeholders may feel comfortable to ally themselves with the movement, but the likelihood is that if they become influential, they will be the Republican party’s worse nightmare–uncontrollable, radical, alienating many voters, and causing GOP losses in 2012, both for the Presidency and Congress and the state governments! 🙁

Imagine the worst scenario!

Rand Paul becomes Senator from Kentucky!
Sharron Angle becomes Senator from Nevada!
Mike Lee becomes Senator from Utah!
Marco Rubio becomes Senator from Florida!
Pat Toomey becomes Senator from Pennsylvania!
Tom Coburn and Jim DeMint and James Inhofe endorse the Tea Party activists and join in a caucus with them!
Michele Bachmann keeps her Congressional seat, and organizes a Tea Party caucus in the House of Representatives with Tea Party activists who win House seats!

Imagine this and how it will affect John Boehner and Eric Cantor and Mitch McConnell and Jon Kyl and other establishment Republicans!

In fact, a conservative website, REDSTATE, projects the “ideal” leadership for the Senate, including Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn and lesser leadership roles for Marco Rubio and Pat Toomey! 🙁

It is clear that Republican establishment leaders are fearful of the effects of the Tea Party activists, who will certainly be hard to manage and will be “unruly insurgents”, as the Washington Post terms it! 🙁

So the Republicans might gain seats, and even, possibly control, but then their worse nightmare will occur, and they could turn off the nation completely by 2012, if they do not come up with magical solutions to make the American people want to vote them in again in 2012! 🙁

And the Republican presidential candidate list discussed in an earlier blog entry will rue the day that the Tea Party Movement gained such an impact, as they might do this fall! 🙁

An Early Assessment Of The Republican Presidential Race For 2012!

Yesterday, the author commented on how many of the potential Presidential candidates in the Republican party were FORMER officeholders, and how being out of office was a positive factor in running for President!

Today, I am going to do an early assessment of who is likely to run, from the list of 15 possible candidates. I will also mention a few others that are rumored to be thinking of running! I am not looking at the negatives, just the positives on why they might run!


Mitt Romney–a certainty to run, seen by many as the heir apparent as the runner up to John McCain in 2008, the front runner in campaign fund raising, has strong business background, very photogenic, good family image, good speaker.

Jeb Bush–comes from largest state in electoral votes of any potential presidential candidate, seen as effective governor and intelligent conservative, has family tradition of public service, can appeal to Hispanic vote, probably feels pressure to run so that his parents might see a second son become President before their demise.

Newt Gingrich–highly intelligent, a man of original ideas, great communicator, knows how to organize a campaign, can bring the fight against Obama in a way no one else can.

Rick Santorum–only figure from the Senate likely to run, strong conservative credentials, good speaker, can gain a lot of the religious conservatives.

Tim Pawlenty–represents the Midwest, strong conservative credentials, appeals to the religious right, somewhat untested on the national scene, but considered a “new face” in the GOP.

Mike Pence–only Congressman other than Gingrich who might have a serious chance, very good speaker, strong conservative, appeals to the Tea Party Movement, very photogenic.

Ron Paul–will certainly run again as the spokesman for the libertarian right, will draw attention by the differences he represents with others in the Republican party.

John Thune–only sitting Senator possibly to make a run for the White House, very photogenic, and a “new face” which may be an appealing point.

A “wild card” possibility is Republican National Chairman Michael Steele, who has hinted he might run, and would add an African American to the race, although his chances of being the nominee are zero!

So therefore, a good prediction is that eight or nine Republicans will compete for the Presidential nomination. All of them, of course, have their faults and shortcomings, and there will be plenty of time to analyze all of them, and any others who decide to run, but the point above was to show what their strong points and rationales are for running.

Now who WILL NOT RUN for the GOP Presidential nomination:

Sarah Palin–who has been able to have influence and make millions of dollars, without having any responsibility for policy ideas or facing the mainstream media. Why would she give all of this up for a grueling campaign that would require real knowledge, and challenges from opponents far more qualified than she is?

Mike Huckabee–very happy in his career as a talk show host on Fox, has expressed view that he has already done the Presidential race and does not need to do it again!

Haley Barbour–very unlikely that a governor from Mississippi with some statements that are highly controversial on race will choose to run, not a likely serious competitor against many of the others.

Bobby Jindal–still a bit young, has not made a good impression overall, maybe a possibility down the road.

Mitch Daniels–a great unknown, least exposed to national media, seems not to have ambition to run.

Scott Brown–more likely to run for a full term in the Senate, would seem inappropriate for a short term senator who also fights against the mainstream of his party to think of running, would create problems for Mitt Romney if he ran.

Chris Christie–brand new Governor, making many enemies, not fair but honestly NOT telegenic due to weight issues, too early to put himself in the race, but maybe to be considered in the future if successful.

Two others sometimes put on the list are Rick Perry of Texas, longest serving Governor, but not seen as likely to run for the White House; and Marco Rubio, who might be elected Senator from Florida, but too young and inexperienced to be seen as a serious candidate this time around, but possibility in long term future.

So therefore, I forecast NINE candidates running and nine others NOT running!

And among the nine running, the most serious candidates going all the way through the primaries and caucuses process would be: Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, Newt Gingrich, and Tim Pawlenty–plus of course Ron Paul!

I welcome debate and discussion on this early assessment! 🙂