With the bitter debate over health care still raging, the thought develops that next year’s midterm election could end up similar to 1994, after Bill Clinton had lost the battle for health care reform, and the Republican party seized the majority in both the House and the Senate for the first time in 40 years.
The odds of this happening again are slight, however, as no matter what the GOP may have accomplished in 1994, the situation is different now, as the mess we are in in both domestic and foreign policy is due to a Republican President who lost all credibility, and the Republicans today offer no alternative in any important way except to be negative, and their leadership in both houses is uninspiring.
Also, Obama won a solid victory and Clinton had only won 43 percent of the vote in 1992. With the country in much worse shape and with the GOP NOT offering real alternatives and having the image of extremism surrounding them, it is highly unlikely that those who go and vote are going to be persuaded to change their view, as long as they see Obama trying to improve our economic situation and international image.
Will the GOP gain seats? Likely for sure in the House, but unlikely or not by much in the Senate, but in any case, not enough of a change to be imagining a GOP takeover in either house or even all that much change in the party balance.
There may be a 30-35 percent minority strongly against the Obama Presidency, but the “base” is not going to be enough to have a dramatic effect on Congress next year or to mount a major challenge to Obama in 2012, UNLESS some dramatic development or new political face comes along to change the political climate. While that is certainly possible, it is highly doubtful!