US House Of Representatives

Could The Lone Star State Really Go “Blue”? If So, The Republican Party Future Is Over!

Latest polls indicate that the Lone Star State, Texas, with the second highest number of electoral votes, 38, could go for Hillary Clinton this year, tipping that state “Blue” four to eight years before it was expected to tilt, based on growth of Hispanic and Latino voting population.

Donald Trump is ahead only by three points, while Mitt Romney won Texas in 2012 by 16 points, so this is certainly a possibility that Hillary Clinton will win Texas this year.

IF she does, she will have a total electoral landslide, with over 400 electoral votes.

North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Utah, all “Red” states, are seen as likely to go to the Democrats, but Texas? Unbelievable!

If this happens, then it is possible that the House of Representatives majority will be in play, and the Senate looks much more likely to go to the Democrats, as we near Election Day in 20 days, but with many voters already having participated by mail or in early in person voting.

When and if Texas goes Democratic, the Republican Party is doomed for the long term, and will never win the White House again, until and unless they reorganize and change their attitudes and policies, including on immigration matters!

Trump Support Hemorraghing Rapidly In “Red” States!

Three weeks to go until the Presidential Election of 2016, and it seems clear, by public opinion polls,that Donald Trump’s support in “Red” states is hemorrhaging rapidly.

His mishandling of the sexual assault allegations has turned many Republicans against him, and his condemnation of Republican leadership, including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, is damaging his ability even to hold on to the loyal Republican states.

So we have evidence that the following states are possible pick ups by Hillary Clinton:

North Carolina
South Carolina
Nebraska (or at least the Omaha area)

One can be quite certain that many of these states will, in the end, still back Donald Trump, but by a much smaller margin than for Mitt Romney in 2012 or John McCain in 2008.

But the first four on the above list look ripe for being picked up by Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.

I will post an entry close to the election on my final projections, and I remind my readers that, independent of Nate Silver in 2012, I projected, as he did, the precise electoral vote distribution-332-206.

I also will publish my projection on History News Network, and will be on radio with Jon Grayson of CBS St Louis, KMOX 1120 AM, Overnight with Jon Grayson, one of the radio shows I have been on, and posted on the right side of the blog, on Election Night at 1 AM ET on November 9, a few hours after the polls have closed, to comment on the results.

Evan McMullin, Independent Presidential Nominee, Could Win Utah’s 6 Electoral Votes

In the midst of all of the attention paid to Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein, there is actually another Presidential candidate on the ballot in eleven states, Evan McMullin, running as a conservative alternative.

McMullin is a possible winner in Utah, with its 6 electoral votes, with his Mormon heritage, and his record as Chief Policy Director for the House Republican Conference, and as a CIA Operations Officer, all by the age of 40, easily the youngest Presidential candidate in a year where three are “elderly” and Gary Johnson is 63.

In a recent poll, McMullin had 20 percent, only a few points behind Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, and with Gary Johnson having 14 percent, so there is a real four way race in Utah, the only state that we see that situation.

McMullin is pro life on abortion matters; accepts gay marriage; is pro free trade; against mass deportation of undocumented immigrants; and supports the basics of ObamaCare, but wants to make a better system. He is critical of Donald Trump on counter terrorism measures, as he has years of experience in that area of policy making.

He could “mess up” the Electoral College, and could become the first non major party candidate to win a state’s electoral votes since George Wallace in 1968.

It is highly unlikely that if he won the state of Utah with its 6 electoral votes, that he would be the decisive factor in who wins 270 electoral votes, but in theory, he could prevent any candidate from winning the required number of electoral votes, and require the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, which has not been used since 1824, to be dusted off once again after 192 years!

If such a scenario developed, there is a slight chance that McMullin could become President, but do not bet on it by any means!

Marco Rubio And John McCain In Trouble As Hillary Clinton Gains in Florida And Arizona

Marco Rubio and John McCain are in trouble as Hillary Clinton gains in Florida and Arizona.

Rubio, who was humiliated by Donald Trump in the Florida GOP Presidential primary, only winning his home county of Miami-Dade, and had the worst attendance record in the Senate, and said he did not like being a Senator, now wants to come back.

But Patrick Murphy, the Democratic Congressman challenging him, is edging closer in polls, as Hillary Clinton seems very likely to win the state, with more Democratic registration, particularly with Puerto Ricans from the island migrating in large numbers in last couple of years to Orlando and other areas of Central Florida.

McCain, always seen as insufficiently conservative by many in Arizona, is witnessing a growing likelihood that Clinton could win Arizona, with increased numbers of Hispanic and Latino voters, and his race against Ann Kirkpatrick, Congresswoman from the First District, being very close in the polls. So after 30 years in the US Senate, and being the nominee of the party for President in 2008, McCain, at age 80, may face mandatory retirement in November!

Donald Trump Determined To Take Republican Party Down With Him, And Must Be Soundly Defeated On November 8!

Donald Trump is becoming more nutty and dangerous by the day!

Just imagine such an unhinged President, a constant constitutional crisis.

This man would be ready to wage war over any slight; dictate to Congress and the courts, even though there is a separation of powers in our Constitution; suspend the Bill of Rights at every criticism by news media; and he would, most certainly, have the most corrupt administration in American history.

He is like a human tornado, totally unbalanced and reckless, and it would seem that even Republicans would work with Democrats to remove him from office by impeachment, but meanwhile, the nation would suffer greatly in both economic and foreign policy crises.

Donald Trump seems determined to bring the Republican Party down with him, and is on the attack against Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Senator John McCain in particular, and he has crazy followers who are following him as if he was a Superman.

He is a menace of massive proportions, and all decent people must mobilize to insure that there is no chance of a close election, as then he can claim it was “rigged”.

Trump needs to lose by a massive landslide, and win less than 40 percent of the vote, and be totally rebuked and punished.

Utah, The Mormon State, Could Vote Democratic For First Time Since 1964, When They Voted Against Barry Goldwater

Utah, the Mormon state, has had an interesting history in their voting patterns on the Presidential elections.

Coming into the Union in 1896, Utah voted for Democrat William Jennings Bryan that year; for Woodrow Wilson in his second term bid in 1916; for Franklin D. Roosevelt four times in 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944; for Harry Truman in 1948; and for Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (over Barry Goldwater).

So if Utah goes for Hillary Clinton, which now seems likely, it will be the first time in 52 years.

With Utah politicians, including Senator Mike Lee, Congressman Jason Chaffetz, and former Governor Jon Huntsman condemning Donald Trump, and with Mitt Romney, the most famous Mormon and 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, being vehemently anti Trump from the beginning of the 2016 Presidential race, it is seen as a blow to Trump having any chance to keep that state loyal to the Republican Party, which is natural in the past half century. Realize that Romney won 3-1 over Barack Obama four years ago!

Republican And Conservative Exodus From Donald Trump Keeps On Growing

The list of Republican and Conservative public figures who refuse to endorse and support Donald Trump is massive. Following is an incomplete but extensive list.

It includes former elected Republican officials such as:

Senator Norm Coleman of Minnesota
Senator Gordon Humphrey of New Hampshire
Senator Larry Pressler of South Dakota
Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine
Governor Jeb Bush of Florida
Governor William Milliken of Michigan]
Governor George Pataki of New York
Governor Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania
Governor Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey
Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
Congressman Ron Paul of Texas
Congressman Chris Shays of Connecticut
Congressman J C Watts of Oklahoma
Congressman Vin Weber of Minnesota

It includes elected Republican officials such as:

Senator Susan Collins of Maine
Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Senator Mark Kirk of Illinois
Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska
Congressman Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania
Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lethinen of Florida
Congressman (and former Governor) Mark Sanford of South Carolina
Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts
Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland
Governor John Kasich of Ohio

Conservative Spokesmen

Glenn Beck
Mona Charen
Erick Erickson
Jonah Goldberg
Stephen Hayes
Bill Kristol
Jennifer Rubin
Ben Shapiro
Charlie Sykes
George Will
National Review editorially
The Weekly Standard editorially

Conservative and Republican Newspapers

Dallas Morning News
Arizona Republic
Cincinnati Enquirer
Detroit News
Houston Chronicle
New Hampshire Union Leader
Chicago Tribune

National Security Officials

Richard Armitage
Michael Chertoff
Michael Hayden
Robert Kagan
John Negroponte
Brent Scowcroft

Presidential Famiilies

George H. W. Bush
Barbara Bush
George W. Bush
Laura Bush
Jeb Bush
Ron Reagan Jr
Michael Reagan

A Real Choice For The Future: Tim Kaine Vs. Mike Pence, One Of Whom Could Be The 46th President Of The United States!

Little attention has been paid by news media to the upcoming Vice Presidential debate, but it really does matter.

One of these two men–Virginia Democratic Senator Tim Kaine or Indiana Republican Governor Mike Pence–will be a heartbeat away from the Presidency, and with their “boss” being either the second oldest or the oldest President at inauguration, that raises the possibility of succession, either by natural causes or by the hated thought of assassination, something that cannot be limited as a potential possibility in a very unsafe environment, both domestic and foreign.

And even if everything goes well, either man could be the heir apparent, and run for the Oval Office four or eight years hence.

It will be interesting to see their body language, their expressions, their knowledge level, their depth, their personality, as neither is known well by the general public.

While both can be said to be basically competent for the job they seek, a look at the public record and utterances of both makes clear that Tim Kaine is, by far, the preferable choice, as he is a mainstream Democrat, while Pence is connected to the right wing of the Republican Party, and has consorted with the Tea Party element in the party in his earlier years in the House of Representatives. Pence has come across as mean spirited, as in the case of an African American man convicted without just cause, finally gaining his freedom with a reversal of his wrongful conviction, but wanting a complete pardon so that his record is expunged, and unable to move ahead in his private life until such happens. But Pence is slow and reluctant to do anything, and one has to wonder, if the race of the individual is a factor.

Being willing to support Donald Trump, no matter what he says or does, might be understandable for a running mate, but it also indicates a lack of principle in asserting his own freedom from the most outrageous Presidential nominee in American history.

Kaine, by comparison, is a humane, decent, genuine, sincere man, who works well “across the aisle” in the Senate, and is admired and liked by many Republican Senators. He has social compassion for the poor, as when he did church work in Honduras, and learned the Spanish language. This is the kind of a man we need to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency, and one can be sure he will be utilized by Hillary Clinton effectively, as has been the case with Joe Biden under Barack Obama, Al Gore under Bill Clinton, and Walter Mondale under Jimmy Carter.

Turnout And Federal Oversight In States With Voting Restrictions The Key To Democratic Victory In November

The biggest obstacle to a Hillary Clinton victory in November is insuring high turnout by African Americans, Latino and Hispanic Americans, young women, college educated men and women, and millennials.

An election requires motivation by voters to come out and vote, and get their friends and family to do so, as well.

Hillary lacks the excitement of Barack Obama, and the charisma of her husband, Bill Clinton, but she is far better qualified than either of them to be President.

So she must work to get people to vote for her as the most equipped of the four candidates—herself, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson, Jill Stein– to be our 45th President.

Additionally, Georgia Congressman John Lewis has called for federal oversight to insure that states that have attempted to promote voter restrictions are prevented from denying people their right to vote, as that could dramatically affect voter turnout as well.

Turnout and federal oversight in states with voting restrictions are crucial, as we cannot allow Donald Trump to become our President, as that would be a never ending nightmare!

Republican Officeholders Hope Split Ticket Voting Will Work In November, But Highly Unlikely To Be A Major Factor

Republican officeholders are hoping that the concept of split ticket voting will work in November, that their constituents will know who they are, and will support them even if they find Donald Trump distasteful.

That is a dangerous assumption, that historically does not work. On the average in recent years, statistics show that only about ten percent of voters, particularly in Presidential election years, actually vote split ticket.

Since 2004, the President who wins has coattail effect, the opposite of the previous generation. It seems that more people are deciding that they wish to give the President the ability to get things done, rather than trying to blockade him from accomplishing his goals.

Of course, a lot has to do with the officeholder’s record in office, and different states have different political cultures.

But it seems likely that with Hillary Clinton favored to win the White House, and so many Republican seats up this round, that we will see, at the least, the gaining of Democratic control of the US Senate, and at least, a closer division in the House of Representatives, although the 30 seat gain needed to win control is a real long shot.

For the Senate, the goal for the Democrats has to be to gain as many seats as possible, as some are likely to be lost in 2018, when in the midterm elections, there are more Democratic seats up. The tendency in recent midterms has been to have a counter reaction against the party of the President, as a way to express disapproval of the President’s record and agenda.