Mark Begich

The US Senate Becomes More Ideological Than Ever!

Ronald Leave a comment

The US Senate used to be a legislative body with moderate and even liberal Republicans, and moderate and conservative Democrats, allowing for a “crossing of the aisle”, and the creation of coalitions of Republicans and Democrats to promote legislation.

The recent Senate elections further destroyed any such “crossing of the aisle”, and insured more deadlock and gridlock, as moderate Democrats were defeated, and the most moderate Republican Senate nominee was defeated.

I am referring to the defeat of Mark Pryor of Arkansas, and the pending likely defeat of Mark Begich of Alaska and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, on the Democratic side, and the defeat of Scott Brown of New Hampshire, who was often called the most moderate Republican.

When one looks at the new 2015 Senate, who is really “Moderate”?

On the Democratic side, we could say Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Bill Nelson of Florida, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Jon Tester of Montana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, and the almost defeated Mark Warner of Virginia, who shocked everyone, including himself, by his almost loss to Ed Gillespie.

On the Republican side, the list of “Moderates” would include Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, John McCain of Arizona, Jeff Flake of Arizona, Mark Kirk of Illinois, Susan Collins of Maine, Rob Portman of Ohio, and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia.

Some readers might be shocked to see McCain and Flake included on this list, but in comparison to the rest of the GOP, they are, often, somewhat moderate and reasonable, although not reliably so.

This is a sad state of affairs, and not likely to change anytime soon!

The End Of The Political Careers Of Several Politicians

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Tuesday’s Midterm Elections ended the careers of several well known politicians.

Charlie Crist now has the distinction of losing a Senate race as a Republican in 1998 to Senator Bob Graham; losing a Senate race as an Independent in 2010 to Senator Marco Rubio; and losing a gubernatorial race as a Democrat to Governor Rick Scott!

Scott Brown now has the distinction of losing two Senate races two years apart, both times to women, in two neighboring states in New England–to Senator Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts in 2012 and to Senator Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire in 2014. He also won the remainder of the Senate term of Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts early in 2010 over another woman, Attorney General Martha Coakley, who now also has lost the gubernatorial race in Massachusetts on Tuesday to Republican candidate Charlie Baker in a very “blue” state. As far as anyone is aware, Brown is the only candidate to run against three women for a Senate seat, winning once, and losing twice.

While no one can say for sure that one defeat ends a political career, the fact that Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn lost a race for a Senate seat; and that Jason Carter, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, lost the gubernatorial race in the same state, which is grandfather had won 44 years ago on his road to the White House, likely ends their careers.

The same goes for Senator Mark Udall in Colorado, son of former Congressman and Presidential seeker Morris Udall of Arizona; and for Senator Mark Pryor, son of former Senator David Pryor in Arkansas; and the odds seem against Senator Mark Begich of Alaska, whose father, Nick Begich, was Congressman from that state; and for Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, whose dad and brother were Mayors of New Orleans, although those two races are not settled as of this writing, and Landrieu faces a runoff against a heavily favored Republican rival.

Such is politics, in office one day, and out the next, and the bigger losers are their staff members!

Family Heritage May Not Be Enough Now For Winning Or Holding Political Office!

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It used to be that if a candidate or officeholder had a famous family name, that he or she would be assured of election or reelection!

Tuesday’s Midterm elections may show that the tradition of family is no longer operative.

We have the following Senators up for reelection with a strong family history in public office, but all now in trouble.

Alaska–Mark Begich
Louisiana–Mary Landrieu
Arkansas–Mark Pryor
Colorado–Mark Udall

We have the following seeking office with family names.

Georgia–Jason Carter for Governor and Michelle Nunn for Senator
Kentucky–Alison Lundergan Grimes for Senator

At this time, none of the seven above are assured of victory, if one believes the public opinion polls!

Family Names May Not Help Democratic Senators In Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, But Senate Will Remain Democratic With Margin of 53-47 Or 52-48!

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Three Democratic Senators with famous family names and moderate conservative records in office seem likely to be victims of the Republican opposition, and to lose their seats in November.

Mark Begich’s father was a Congressman from Alaska, but Begich seems likely to lose his seat to Dan Sullivan, the GOP nominee for his seat.

Mark Pryor’s father was a Senator from Arkansas, but Pryor seems likely to lose his seat to Republican Congressman Tom Cotton.

Mary Landrieu’s father and brother were Mayors of New Orleans, but although she is known for winning tight races, it seems likely she will lose her seat in the Senate to Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy.

However, these losses are likely to be matched by victories in Kentucky, Georgia, and Kansas, which will make it an even balance, and Virginia, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado, and Oregon are highly likely to remain Democratic. It is also clear that Montana and West Virginia are likely to switch from Democratic to Republican.

So the one seat left to be mentioned is South Dakota, with its four way race of Republican former Governor Mike Rounds; former Republican, now Independent Larry Pressler; and Democrat Rick Weiland, with even a fourth candidate, another Independent, Gordon Howie, making it highly likely that either Weiland or Pressler (who voted for Barack Obama twice despite his earlier GOP service in the Senate) might win this donnybrook of a race and join the Democratic caucus in the US Senate.

So this blogger predicts a final Senate of either 52 or 53 Democrats and Independents, and 47 or 48 Republicans, depending on South Dakota’s final results. That would be a 2 to 3 seat gain in the Senate for the GOP, but control of the Senate continuing for the Democrats!

Republican Weakness In Defeating Democratic Incumbents In Senate Races A Long Term Trend!

Ronald 2 Comments

In all of the discussion of US Senate races in the upcoming Midterm Elections of 2014, many fail to realize the historical record of the failure of Republicans to have much success in defeating Democratic incumbents over a long period of time, while Democrats have been much more successful in that regard.

From 1946 to 2012, only TWICE have Republicans been able to defeat a large number of Democratic incumbents–1946 (10) and 1980 (12).

Since 1982, the number of Democratic incumbents defeated in each two year cycle has never been more than two, and six times there have been NO Democratic incumbents defeated.

Meanwhile, Democrats have defeated Republican incumbents in large numbers many times—8 in 1948; 10 in 1958; 7 in 1986; 5 in 2000; and 6 in 2006.

So to assume that a large number of Democratic incumbents, including Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Mark Begich of Alaska; Mark Pryor of Arkansas; Mark Udall of Colorado; Al Franken of Minnesota; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; Tom Udall of New Mexico; and Mark Warner of Virginia will be defeated, defies history!

Since World War II, the reelection rate for US Senators is 80 percent.

And since 1980, Democrats have defeated 38 Republican incumbents, to just 12 for Republicans defeating Democratic incumbents!

Family Names And Connections Matter In Politics And Will Affect 2014 Senate Races!

Ronald Leave a comment

Many prognosticators have, seemingly, forgotten the role of family names and connections in politics, and how it will help to affect Senate races in 2014.

Mark Begich in Alaska is the son of a former Congressman.

Mary Landrieu in Louisiana is the daughter and sister of former Mayors of New Orleans.

Mark Pryor in Arkansas is the son of a former Senator.

Michelle Nunn in Georgia is the daughter of a former Senator.

These four races are likely to see Democratic wins, which means the saving of the seats in Alaska, Louisiana, and Arkansas, and the gaining of a seat in Georgia!

Do Not Believe Polls Which Predict GOP Senate Majority!

Ronald Leave a comment

So many polls are now predicting that the Republican Party will win control of the US Senate. But polls have been proved wrong before, and the Democrats should not run scared, just run aggressively against the Do Nothing Republicans, similar to what Harry Truman did in 1948!

The Republican Party is wrong on immigration reform; is wrong on the right of workers; is wrong on the treatment of women at work and in their private lives; is wrong on the environment and climate change; is wrong on the need for gun regulation; is wrong on the use of the race card; is wrong on its refusal to promote infrastructure spending; is wrong on its decision to oppose more expenditures on veterans; is wrong in its opposition to ObamaCare; is wrong in its attacks on Social Security and Medicare; is wrong in its efforts to deny voting rights; is wrong in its advocacy of wars everywhere, rather than pursuing diplomacy and peace; is wrong in their anti intellectual, anti science agenda; is wrong in its promotion of theocracy, rather than separation of church and state; and is wrong in its planned strategy to obstruct all judicial and executive nominations and therefore to cripple operation of the courts and government agencies.

The Democrats are likely to keep the following Senators–Mark Pryor of Arkansas; Mary Landrieu of Louisiana; Kay Hagan of North Carolina; Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire; Mark Warner of Virginia; and Mark Begich of Alaska.

They have a good chance of defeating Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, with their nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes; win the open Senate seat in Georgia with Michelle Nunn; win the open Senate seat in Iowa with Bruce Braley; win the open Senate seat in Michigan with Gary Peters; and an even chance to win the open West Virginia seat with Natalie Tennant over Republican Shelley Moore Capito.

The only seats seen likely to switch from D to R are: South Dakota and Montana; while the Democrats have a good shot at winning Kentucky and Georgia. With West Virginia possibly going Republican with Capito, and Maine having a chance that Republican Susan Collins loses to Democrat Shanna Bellows, if such happens, it is no gain by the Republicans.

The best prediction is that the Republicans MIGHT gain two seats, falling four states short of the six needed to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader, with him likely to lose to Grimes in Kentucky, in any case.

The worst case scenario for the Democrats is the loss of South Dakota and Montana; and the loss of West Virginia, therefore meaning a Republican gain of three seats!

And in 2016, with two thirds of the seats being Republicans, the Democrats are sure, in an election where their Democratic Presidential nominee will be heavily favored, to win a large number of additional seats, nearing up to 60 from a possible low of 52 in 2014!

Tom Harkin-Mark Begich Senate Bill On Social Security Longevity Essential To Become Law!

Ronald 17 Comments

Social Security, begun under Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal in 1935, has been a life saver, a guarantee that senior citizens, widows, orphans, and the disabled will always have a safety net.

But with the number of people on Social Security rising rapidly as the Baby Boom Generation ages, there is a need to insure the long term future of the program, not only for people born between 1946 and 1964, but for all citizens who are paying into the program, and want to be insured that they will be able to collect when they reach retirement age, along with widows,orphans and the disabled.

So Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa and Senator Mark Begich of Alaska have proposed what others have suggested over the years, but has never happened.

That is, that there be no limit on income taxed for Social Security, just as there is no limit on income taxed for Medicare!

Presently, the income limit taxed is $113,700 in 2013, with the tax being 6.2 percent of income.

If the income limit taxed is withdrawn, there will be enough funding for Social Security for the long term future, and it is unfair that higher income earners have had a free break from being taxed, putting the burden on the lower income workers!

Additionally, the cost of living increases should be based on inflation reality, rather than the “chained CPI”, which distorts inflation on a lower level than costs which affect senior citizens!

If we do not treat the elderly and the disabled with respect and consideration, what kind of a nation are we, particularly for those who have limited ability to continue to earn income to stay out of poverty, particularly in a time of increased medical costs, high unemployment, and lower home equity for millions of people entering their “golden years”!

Sarah Palin In The US Senate? And We Thought We Were Finally Rid Of Sarah In Politics?

Ronald 5 Comments

Hard to believe, but Sarah Palin, former Alaska part term Governor and 2008 GOP Vice Presidential nominee (thanks to the poor judgment of John McCain), has announced she is considering running for the US Senate seat of Democrat Mark Begich in 2014.

This, coming on the heels of the possibility of Liz Cheney running for a Senate seat in Wyoming already occupied by a conservative Republican, makes one want to drink, even if one is not a drinker! LOL

At least Liz Cheney has a brain and intelligence, although she is a very mean spirited and an overly aggressive and presumptuous woman, who has ambitions for the Presidency over the long haul, if not immediately!

But Sarah Palin? Is this for real? Or is it simply another way for Sarah to make money, gain publicity, and take advantage of her supporters who are as clueless about everything as much as she is?

This woman, who did not even know what the role of the Vice President was constitutionally, now wishes to grace the Senate, and bring the quality of the Senate, already much lower than it was in the 1960s and 1970s, to a new all time low! Can one imagine her in debate, giving speeches on important issues which she has no knowledge of, and never will? She would make the Senate a circus atmosphere, which is the last thing that the upper body of Congress needs!

The fact that polls indicate her popularity is at an all time low makes one think Palin would not find it easy to defeat primary opposition, let alone Senator Begich.

But this woman needs attention, and to live off her fans, and so she will continue to be an annoyance, and if, by some chance she were to win the Senate seat, you can add Sarah to the 2016 mix of potential Republican Presidential candidates, and this would only add to the circus atmosphere already mentioned by this author just yesterday!

The Courage Of Pro NRA Senators Who Voted For The Universal Background Checks Bill

Ronald 8 Comments

Attention has been paid to those Pro NRA Senators who refused to support the Universal Background Checks bill, and who now have suffered drops in public opinion polls in their states, including Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, Ohio Senator Rob Portman, Arizona Senator Jeff Flake, Nevada Senator Dean Heller, and New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte.

Not as much attention has been paid to the Senators of both parties who did not let their basically Pro NRA viewpoints stand in the way of common sense and reality.

These include:

Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania
Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania
Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico
Senator Joe Donnelly of Indiana
Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota
Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Senator Jon Tester of Montana
Senator Harry Reid of Nevada
Senator Mark Warner of Virginia

And shame on Democratic Senators Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Nick Begich of Alaska, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, and Max Baucus of Montana for voting against the Universal Background Checks, and a salute to Republican Senators John McCain of Arizona, Susan Collins of Maine, and Mark Kirk of Illinois, who joined Pat Toomey in support of the legislation!