US House Of Representatives

Barack Obama’s Historical Reputation Is Now Guaranteed, As Speaker John Boehner Concedes ObamaCare Is Here To Stay, And No Attempt To Repeal Will Be Made!

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Today is a momentous day, as the certainty of the survival of ObamaCare has just been declared by Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner!

After working for more than two years to repeal it, the Republicans are throwing in the towel on trying to repeal it.

The Supreme Court, with Chief Justice John Roberts in the majority with four liberals, upheld the law in June, but the GOP still pledged to kill it.

But with the victory of Barack Obama on Tuesday, and with Democrats gaining seats in the US Senate and in the House of Representatives, the battle has come to an end.

This is a major event, worth celebrating, and it insures the historical legacy of Barack Obama, who will always be remembered first for this accomplishment, just as Franklin D. Roosevelt is remembered for Social Security, and Lyndon B. Johnson for Medicare!

Tea Party Nasty, Mean Spirited Conservatism Lost Big: The Republican Party MUST Change Or Be Replaced!

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The Tea Party Movement of 2010 has lost BIG in 2012, and the nasty, mean spirited conservatism it represents must be overcome by the Republican Party, which MUST change or be replaced!

Congressman Allen West of Florida, Congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, Senate nominee Todd Akin of Missouri, and Senate nominee Richard Mourdock of Indiana headline those who lost.

Never again can the Republican Party try to dictate to women about their reproductive lives; never can the GOP attack Hispanics and Latinos in a nasty, mean spirited way and expect to gain their support; never can the party of 2012 allow itself to let religious extremists to control its destiny and dictate religious doctrine to the nation at large; never can they promote foreign wars and aggression as the neoconservatives did under George W. Bush; never can they promote lack of concern for the middle class and the poor, as Mitt Romney made clear in his “47 percent” speech; never can they allow themselves to become the captive of billionaires such as Sheldon Adelson and the Koch Brothers; never can they allow Donald Trump and other jerks like him to take control of their public message: never can they allow racists and talk show hosts, such as Rush Limbaugh, and other extremists and hate mongers to dictate to them—and in many other ways, they must liberate themselves from their demons, or become part of the dustbin of history!

They must become more like the Conservative Party of Great Britain, which is far to the left of the present Republican Party, but still to the right of the Labour Party of Great Britain!

It is up to them, and purging and house cleaning must begin in earnest!

BARACK OBAMA WINS SECOND TERM AT 11:12 PM EASTERN TIME!

Ronald 9 Comments

Barack Obama has done it!

He has won reelection by going over the top in Ohio!

There are still states not settled, including Florida and Virginia, but it does not matter now!

He will now go down as one of the greatest Presidents of all time, after a second term where he will have capital to force the Republican House to deal with him on his own demands!

Much commentary will follow, but right now this is a moment to celebrate, as it is a victory for the American people!

Final House Of Representatives Division: 227 Republicans, 208 Democrats—A 15 Seat Gain By Democrats

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This author’s prediction on the House of Representatives elections is much more difficult, since trying to follow the race in 435 Congressional districts is overwhelming.

But it seems clear that the Republican Party will keep control, as with the gain of the Governorship and state legislative control in many states in 2010, the Republicans had the edge in reapportionment of district lines in the House.

Having said that, the discontent with the Tea Party Movement control of the GOP growing, it seems likely that the Democrats will gain seats, about 15, and make the next House competition in 2014 give them the opportunity for takeover.

Needing a minimum of 25 seats this time, the Democrats will gain, maybe, 60 percent of that, with 15, putting them within reach to gain control with a 10 seat gain two years from now.

The real battle for now will be whether Speaker John Boehner stays, or Eric Cantor mounts a “coup”, and whether Nancy Pelosi remains Minority Leader, or loses it to Minority Whip Steny Hoyer!

Good Chance That Most Despicable Republican House Members Will Lose Reelection On Tuesday

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With the election just three days away, it seems as if some House Republicans, of the Tea Party variety, might be kicked out of their seats in the House of Representatives.

These would include members that this author has written about in negative terms over time, including:

Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
Steve King of Iowa
Joe Walsh of Illinois
Allen West of Florida

The chance to defeat Paul Ryan in Wisconsin and Eric Cantor in Virginia, sadly, seems less likely, but at least Ryan is NOT going to be Vice President of the United States after Tuesday.

But the chance to have Jim Graves, Christie Vilsack, Tammy Duckworth, and Patrick Murphy in the House of Representatives as new Democratic members is something very satisfying!

And in the Florida Congressional district that Allen West represented during these past two years, the election of Lois Frankel over Republican nominee Adam Hasner also seems very likely, another great addition to the House of Representatives!

Urgent To Defeat “Tea Party” Republicans Running For Senate—Akin, Mourdock, Fischer

Ronald 4 Comments

There are three “Tea Party” type Republicans running for Senate seats in the Midwest, who are facing tough fights by Democratic opponents, and the hope is that all three of these irresponsible Republican nominees are defeated.

The three are:

Congressman Todd Akin, challenging incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill in Missouri.

State Treasurer Richard Mourdock, challenging Congressman Joe Donnelly in Indiana.

State Senator Deb Fischer, challenging former Senator Bob Kerrey in Nebraska.

Akin, Mourdock, and Fischer represent extremism that would create more conflict and confrontation in the US Senate. And Akin and Mourdock have made outrageous statements about rape, angering any decent person who cares about women’s rights.

McCaskill has been a courageous Senator, and Kerrey was once a Presidential candidate twenty years ago, who now has been endorsed by his former Republican Senate colleague, Chuck Hagel, a true example of crossing the aisle. Both Kerrey and Hagel were outstanding US senators, and once could wish that both were still in the Senate, but now there is an opportunity to return Kerrey to the Senate.

Donnelly is a responsible moderate Democratic Congressman, who would be a great improvement over Mourdock although neither would fully replace retiring Republican Senator Richard Lugar, defeated by Mourdock in the Indiana Senatorial primary this past spring.

These are certainly key Senatorial races to watch on Tuesday night!

The Theoretical Possibility Of A Romney-Biden White House

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IF by some chance, the electoral vote would be evenly divided 269-269, the House of Representatives, likely to have more states with a Republican majority delegation, would then get to choose the President, as they did in 1800 and 1824, and would then choose Mitt Romney, their party’s nominee.

But if the Democrats continued to control the US Senate, then Vice President Joe Biden would be likely to be chosen, and we would have a split White House, which we only had after the 1796 election, when Thomas Jefferson was the opponent of John Adams, and ended up as his unhappy Vice President, and then defeated him in a tumultuous election in 1800.

The 12th Amendment in 1804 was supposed to prevent such an eventuality again, but it is possible, but highly unlikely, that such a scenario could happen.

This would be bad for America, as certainly Romney and Biden would not get along, and it is well known that Biden has ambitions to run for President in 2016, and would likely oppose President Romney on every issue imaginable, as they might be opponents in 2016, when Romney would run for reelection.

It is interesting to think about this, but no one should worry, as the odds of a tie of 269-269 is highly remote, and every indication from the “swing states” and Nate Silver in the NY Times is that Barack Obama will win the Electoral College without any problem, and win most of the contested states, as many other polls also indicate!

Will 2012 Presidential Election Mirror 2000 Presidential Election?

Ronald 1 Comment

There is a growing possibility that the Presidential Election of 2012 will become a reprise of the Presidential Election Of 2000, where the winner of the popular vote does not win the Electoral College, and therefore does not become President of the United States.

This time, the Democratic incumbent, Barack Obama, would be the lucky recipient, while last time the Republican candidate, George W. Bush, was to become the fourth Presidential nominee to fail to win the popular vote but become President, after John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford Hayes in 1876, and Benjamin Harrison in 1888.

Some would say that such a result, with Obama being reelected, although losing the popular vote to Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, would be “justice” for what happened to Al Gore, the Democratic nominee in 2000.

But there is a major difference, in that Obama is already President, while Bush was competing for the position, but was not yet our President.

It would be the first time that a sitting President was reelected without the popular vote of the American people, and would make Republicans say he was “illegitimate” to be our President, something already said, but still would be a great tragedy,and probably guarantee another four years of stalemate and gridlock.

It would make, more likely, a move by the Republicans, if they controlled the House of Representatives, which seems likely at this point, to move to impeach the President, as they succeeded in doing to Bill Clinton in 1998.

It would be a political circus, which would paralyze the nation, and the Republican Party would do everything it could to undermine Obama, and to attempt to make it seem as if he was a failed President, to stain his name in history, even if they had been unable to dislodge him from the White House.

It is hoped that this whole scenario will not happen, and that Barack Obama will end up winning the popular vote, but with the impending Hurricane Sandy, likely to cut down voting totals in the Northeast and Midwest, considered strongly Democratic at least in the Northeast, it could assist Romney in winning the national popular vote, and even the Electoral College win is certainly possible for Romney, although still considered unlikely.

With the impending storm, there is a lot to pray for, regarding safety of the population in the Northeast and Midwest, as well as the future of the nation after the Presidential Election Of 2012. We are living in very difficult times, and have to hope for reason and tolerance, without any certainty of either occurring!

Democratic Senate Candidates: What Are The Odds For The Senate In 2013-2014?

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Presently, the Democratic Party has 51 seats in the Senate, plus two Independents (Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont), who caucus with them.

What are the odds of the Democrats keeping 53 seats, but at least having a majority of 51 without the Vice President casting the tie vote, and possibly gaining one or two seats?

The odds seem excellent at least to keep control and possibly gain a seat or two, based on recent polling.

At the optimum, IF every one of the contested five Republican seats were to be won, and every Democratic seat was retained, the Democrats could control 58 seats, but that is not, realistically, going to happen.

But a possible gain of one or two seats is possible, when considering all of the contested races.

If, as stated in an earlier entry, the Democrats gain three of the five contested seats of Republicans, most likely in Arizona, Maine and Massachusetts, but lose in Indiana and Nevada, they could have 56 seats, but not all Democratic contentious races are seen as likely to be won.

Those Democrats in races seen as competitive but likely to win include:

Florida—Senator Bill Nelson against Republican Congressman Connie Mack IV.

Michigan—Senator Debbie Stabenow against former Republican Congressman Peter Hoekstra

Missouri—Senator Claire McCaskill against Republican Congressman Todd Akin

Montana–Senator Jon Tester against Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg

Ohio—Senator Sherrod Brown against Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel

Eleven other seats also seem safe, but there are seven highly contested seats that are more problematical.

Connecticut—Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy against Republican Linda McMahon, the owner of the World Wrestling Entertainment organization, who ran against Richard Blumenthal in 2010 and lost, but now is seen as a slight favorite, taking away a Democratic seat if that occurs.

Hawaii—Democratic Congresswoman Mazie Hirono against former Republican Governor Linda Lingle, a race of a Japanese American vs a Jewish American, with Hirono slightly favored, keeping the seat Democratic.

Nebraska—Former Democratic Governor and Senator and Presidential contender Bob Kerrey, against Republican state legislator Debbie Fischer, a Tea Party favorite, with Fischer favored, although Kerrey is a major figure of the past now returning to Nebraska, but if Fischer wins, the seat switches parties from retiring Ben Nelson.

New Mexico—Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich against former Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson, with Heinrich a slight favorite to keep the seat Democratic.

North Dakota—Past state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp against Republican Congressman Rick Berg, with Heitkamp running ahead and if winning, would keep the seat Democratic.

Virginia—former Governor Tim Kaine running against former Republican Governor George Allen, with Kaine ahead and expected to keep the seat Democratic.

Wisconsin—Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, an openly lesbian member of the House, against former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson, with Baldwin running ahead and would keep the seat Democratic.

Best guess is that Hawaii, New Mexico, North Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin will stay Democratic, but Connecticut and Nebraska might switch to the Republicans.

So IF everything works out as projected by the author in the earlier entry on the Republican held seats, it means that seats would remain in the same party’s hands, EXCEPT:

Connecticut and Nebraska would go Republican from Democratic.

Arizona, Maine and Massachusetts would go Democratic from Republican.

So the end result would be a Senate of:

54 Democrats, including Independents Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine.

46 Republicans

Meaning: a ONE seat gain for the Democrats!

So out of the 23 seats that were Democratic or Independent, 21 would remain Democratic.

Out of the 10 seats that were Republican, 7 would remain Republican.

So we have a slightly greater Democratic Senate, if this all works out, and we shall see how accurate this projection is when the elections take place 17 days from now!

Positive Signs For The Obama Campaign And The Democrats

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With 23 days to go to the Presidential Election of 2012, the situation is improving for the Democrats and Barack Obama.

The evidence includes the following:

Joe Biden went on the offensive against Paul Ryan, and demonstrated the falsehoods and deceptions promoted by Ryan and his running mate, Mitt Romney.

Barack Obama is working more diligently at debate preparation, and the Town Hall format of the second Presidential debate at Hofstra University in New York on Tuesday favors his strengths, as compared to Romney.

Early voting statistics in Ohio indicate a massive lead for Obama, a very encouraging development. And no Republicans has ever won the Presidency without Ohio, and the Electoral College still favors the President in most scenarios, as he only needs to win two to three of nine states considered “swing” states, to secure 270 electoral votes.

The Democratic Congressional Committee raised twice the amount of the National Republican Congressional Committee in August.

The Obama campaign has gained a grand total of 4 million contributors to their effort, the most in history.

Many incumbent Republicans are facing tough reelection campaigns, including Michele Bachmann, Steve King, Joe Walsh, Eric Cantor, Allen West, and even Paul Ryan.

The odds of a continued Senate majority for the Democrats are increasing.

The chances of a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives are also increasing, with Democrats rating higher in public opinion polls about Congress, than the Republicans.

Of course, the situation will remain fluid, and there could be last minute changes, but right now, things look promising on all fronts!