Supreme Court

The Likelihood Of Joe Biden Succeeding Barack Obama: Less Than 50%

Ronald 2 Comments

With the second term of President Barack Obama beginning, already the news media is speculating on the likelihood of Vice President Joe Biden running for President, and the odds that he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016, and become our next President.

Biden is certainly encouraging speculation, while saying he has not made up his mind. It is clear that he would like to run, but even he admits that the success or lack of success of the first two years of the second term of Obama, on top of his first term, will have a dramatic effect on his decision to run, and the odds of his having a good chance to become the 45th President of the United States.

Biden has a long record in public office, actually greater in number of years than any President of the United States having come to the Senate at the minimum age of 30, serving six terms (36 years), and now on his second term as Vice President, which, when he completes it, will mean he has served 44 years in national office.

Biden knows Washington DC like few know it. He also knows how to work with the opposition Republican Party in a manner unseen since Lyndon B. Johnson, although Johnson had a much more unorthodox approach to bargaining, and “wheeler dealing”, than the much more proper and mannerly Joe Biden.

But he also has a long list of gaffes, most not harmful, except to those who oppose him, and his liberal views have alienated major groups, as he has worked on issues highly controversial, including gun rights, women’s rights, gay rights, civil rights, foreign policy, Supreme Court nominees, and protection of the Great Society and New Deal programs, including the so called “entitlements”.

And his age, now 70, meaning he would be 74-78 in a first term, and 78-82 in a second term, is not a plus, as we only had one President beyond the age of 70, Ronald Reagan, who seemed to be in decline in his second term of office, finishing it at age 77 and about 49 weeks,

And there is the challenge of Hillary Clinton, whose public opinion ratings are higher than Biden’s, although there is much doubt that she will, ultimately, run for the Presidency. This author and blogger has already theorized, at the beginning of January, that Hillary will decide not to run. Her performance in testifying today at the Benghazi, Libya hearings of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will be crucial in any plans she might have, after a good rest and recovery period, to run for President in 2016.

And of course, there is the “younger” or “newer” generation of political leaders who have interest in running—including Governors Andrew Cuomo of New York and Martin O’Malley of Maryland, both taking strong leadership on gay marriage and gun regulations in their states; plus others, including Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and even possibly others, including Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado.

So the likelihood of Joe Biden running, while good, is not, automatically going to give him an edge in a field of many likely challengers. And of course, even if many Republicans like Joe Biden personally, it is certain, and obvious, that they are building up a long list of issues to use against the Vice President, should he end up as the Democratic nominee for President in 2016.

Lyndon B. Johnson Forty Years After His Death: Mixed Legacy

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Forty years ago today, President Lyndon B. Johnson died at the age of 64, two days after the second inauguration of President Richard Nixon, an event he did not attend due to poor health.

Johnson had only been out of the Presidency for four years and two days, and one has to wonder had he run in 1968 and won, whether he would have died in office from the stresses and burdens of the job, and particularly the ongoing war in Vietnam.

Vietnam will always be the ultimate “Achilles Heel” of the Johnson Presidency, with the President hating foreign policy and just wishing for the Vietnam mess to go away, but his fateful decision to commit a half million troops to the war doomed the unity he had experienced in his landslide victory in 1964 over Senator Barry Goldwater, the greatest popular vote victory percentage in American history!

Johnson did so much good in expanding the vision of the New Deal of FDR, the Fair Deal of Harry Truman, and the New Frontier of JFK, and accomplished everything they pursued, and failed to accomplish in their Presidencies. And just yesterday, President Barack Obama evoked the image of the Great Society, and the goals that he outlined to expand that Great Society a half century later, after a long time in the political “wilderness”.

Without Johnson as President, we would not have had the following, in many cases, EVER up to now:

Medicare
Medicaid
Immigration Reform
Federal Aid to Education
Civil Rights Act
Voting Rights Act
War on Poverty—Office of Economic Opportunity, Job Corps, Project Head Start, Model Cities, and other programs
Environmental Legislation
Consumer Legislation
National Public Radio
Public Broadcasting System
National Endowment For The Arts
National Endowment For The Humanities
Gemini and Apollo Space Programs
Cabinet Agencies–Department of Housing and Urban Development and Department of Transportation
First African American appointments to the Cabinet–Robert Weaver–and the Supreme Court–Thurgood Marshall

Can anyone imagine NOT having most, if not all, of these programs and agencies?

Some might have been accomplished over time under other Presidents, but it is hard to conceive that much of it would have occurred with the rise over time of the conservative movement to power under Ronald Reagan, and Reagan’s impact on the next thirty years of American government until now.

As always is true of any President, Lyndon B. Johnson will remain highly controversial, but it is worth remembering his positive legacy on this, the 40th anniversary of his death, while not overlooking the damaging effect of his foreign policy actions, particularly in Vietnam.

40 Years Of Roe V Wade: Abortion Controversy Remains Red Hot!

Ronald 6 Comments

Forty years ago today, the Supreme Court in a 7-2 decision, declared the right of women to an abortion, with three Richard Nixon appointments to the Court–author of the decision Harry Blackmun, and Chief Justice Warren Burger and Associate Justice Lewis Powell—joining two Eisenhower appointees—Potter Stewart and William Brennan—one Johnson appointee, Thurgood Marshall—and one Roosevelt appointee, William O. Douglas—in the majority.

Only Associate Justice Byron White, appointed by Kennedy; and William Rehnquist, appointed by Nixon, were in the minority.

Forty years later, the pro life and pro choice movements are still locked in constant combat, but with public opinion polls showing 54 percent want abortion rights retained all of the time or most of the time, with 44 percent against. And 70 percent in a poll do not want to see Roe V Wade overturned.

But meanwhile, Republican state legislatures in the past two years have passed a total of over 130 laws restricting the rights of abortion, and curbing the number of abortion providers.

Four states have made it almost impossible for women to obtain an abortion—Mississippi, Arkansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

So the federal allowance for abortion may exist, but in the South and Great Plains areas of the nation, it is becoming nearly impossible for abortions to be obtained, no matter whether it is because of rape, incest, life of the mother, or just any other reason, whether seemingly justifiable or not.

Abortion is an emotional issue, and one that most people would say needs to remain legal and safe but also RARE, and should not be used as a method of birth control, or because of reckless personal behavior. It is not an issue that will disappear anytime soon, but for now, the odds of reversing Roe V. Wade on the national level are remote, as Barack Obama will not appoint a Supreme Court Justice who gives any hint of wishing to overturn what many call the most controversial decision of the latter half of the 20th century.

Conflict Between Presidents And Chief Justices Quite Common Historically

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It is well known that President Barack Obama and Chief Justice John Roberts do not have a warm relationship, with Roberts chosen by George W. Bush, with Obama voting against his confirmation, and with the two men having totally different ideological views. Despite that, and the annoyance of Roberts over Obama’s condemnation of the Supreme Court for the Citizens United case of 2010, Roberts saved “ObamaCare” in June 2012, legitimizing it for the future, and gaining the anger of Republicans and conservatives. Who can say for sure how the relationship between Obama and Roberts will develop in the second term, and whether Roberts will surprise with more support of the administration than just the health care issue?

But the fact of their antagonism is not new in American history, as it is actually quite common that the Chief Justice is picked by a President of one ideological view, and will often clash with a future President of another party during his tenure on the Court.

The examples of such antagonism, far worse than the Obama-Roberts relationship, follow:

Thomas Jefferson and Chief Justice John Marshall (appointed by John Adams), on the Marbury V Madison case of 1803, dealing with Judicial Review. They were also distant cousins, who personally disliked each other.

Andrew Jackson and Chief Justice John Marshall (appointed by John Adams), on the removal of the Cherokee and other Indian Tribes after the Worcester V. Georgia and other similar cases in the 1830s.

Abraham Lincoln and Chief Justice Roger Taney (appointed by Andrew Jackson), over the Dred Scott V Sanford case in 1857, and the President’s use of war powers during the Civil War years until Taney’s death in 1864.

Franklin D. Roosevelt and Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes (appointed by Herbert Hoover), over Supreme Court decisions during the New Deal years, and specifically FDR’s Court “Packing” Plan in 1937.

Richard Nixon and Chief Justice Earl Warren (appointed by Dwight D. Eisenhower), who Nixon had criticized in earlier years, and were rivals in California politics,and Warren trying to leave office under Lyndon B. Johnson, so Nixon would not replace him, but unable to do so due to controversy over Johnson’s nomination of Associate Justice Abe Fortas in 1968, leading to rejection, and Warren’s replacement, Warren Burger, being chosen by Nixon in 1969.

Bill Clinton and Chief Justice William Rehnquist (appointed by Ronald Reagan), who had major disagreements on policy, but Rehnquist conducted himself well at the Bill Clinton Impeachment Trial in 1999.

So the antagonism and rivalry of Presidents and Chief Justices is nothing new!

The Truth About Presidential Executive Orders From 1893-2013

Ronald 3 Comments

New statistics have emerged regarding the use of Presidential executive orders, now being hotly contested because President Barack Obama is issuing 23 such orders on gun regulation, in the aftermath of the Sandy Hook Massacre.

All Presidents from Grover Cleveland’s second term through Obama’s first term are covered in assessing how much these Presidents utilized executive orders. Thanks to New York Magazine for these statistics.

So for conservatives and Republicans, they can be excited to point out that Franklin D. Roosevelt, who they hate, issued, by far, the most executive orders. But of course, FDR presided during the Great Depression and World War II, the greatest crises since the Civil War, and, of course, FDR also served three complete terms and started a fourth before dying in office.

But after FDR, one discovers that Herbert Hoover was a close second in the four years of his term, having to deal with the Great Depression erupting in his first year in office. Of course, some conservatives think of Hoover as a progressive, but that is a major misunderstanding in fact!

Woodrow Wilson comes a close third, and this makes conservatives feel justified that it is Democrats, such as FDR and Wilson, who are the biggest “villains” on executive orders.

But then, how does one explain that below Wilson are Warren G. Harding and Calvin Coolidge, not much behind Wilson, but adored by conservatives? And next is William Howard Taft, considered a conservative when Chief Justice of the Supreme Court a decade after his Presidency. These three Presidents are Republicans, imagine that!

The list continues in order as follows:

Theodore Roosevelt
Harry Truman
Jimmy Carter
John F. Kennedy
Gerald Ford
Lyndon B. Johnson
Richard Nixon
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Ronald Reagan
Bill Clinton
George H. W. Bush
William McKinley
George W. Bush
Barack Obama
Grover Cleveland

Hey, wait a minute here! Obama is next to last of these 21 Presidents? How is that possible, after the rhetoric employed by Republicans such as Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky? Could it be that Paul does not know the facts, and does not know history very well? You know the answer!

And executive orders have become quite rare after Truman, so were most utilized by the eight Presidents from TR through Truman.

In other words, Barack Obama has NOT abused the executive orders authority, and has hardly used it, and Republicans TR, Taft, Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover all used it an amazing amount of times!

But do conservatives really care to know the truth? Again, the answer is obvious!

The Impeachment Threat Against Chief Justice John Roberts: Totally Ludicrous!

Ronald 1 Comment

The right wing extremists are at it again, now threatening to move to impeach Chief Justice John Roberts IF he swears in President Barack Obama next weekend for his second term in office.

The “Birther” movement, led by Orly Taitz and others, and still insisting that Barack Obama is not eligible to be President because he was born in Kenya, is leading the movement to force Roberts out of office, a totally insane and ludicrous idea!

As has been stated earlier in another entry, a President can be sworn in by ANY judge, and examples of such are Lyndon B. Johnson sworn in by Federal District Court judge Sarah Hughes on Air Force One after the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963; and Calvin Coolidge, sworn into office in the middle of the night in Vermont by his own father, a local justice of the peace in 1923.

And if Roberts refused to swear in the President, which he will not do, then ANY of the other Supreme Court Justices, such as Ruth Bader Ginsberg, Stephen Breyer, or Anthony Kennedy, could do the same. Does the “Birther” Movement plan to impeach all of the members of the Supreme Court?

And were Roberts or any Supreme Court Justice to be impeached by the House of Representatives, which is highly unlikely, particularly for Roberts, who was appointed by George W. Bush, there is no chance of gaining a two thirds vote in the Senate to remove him from office! With a Democratic Senate, not even half the votes would be obtained, even if all 45 Republicans were to vote to convict, something that is absolutely NOT going to happen!

All that the “Birther” Movement is doing is adding to its image as a group of wing nuts, not worthy of newsprint or any other public attention!

And Chief Justice Roberts, a man who has wished to avoid controversy, now can commiserate with President Obama, particularly after Roberts’ crucial vote upholding “ObamaCare” in June of last year, a path breaking moment in the history of the Court and of American reform!

Right Wing Lunatics Never Let Up On Aim To Destroy Barack Obama!

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The wing nut right wing never stops attacking Barack Obama!

They claim that Obama is a Muslim President, despite the fact that the President has been responsible for the killing of more Muslims than George W. Bush. Obama has utilized the drone program in Afghanistan effectively, and has been able to end the lives of many terrorists, including Osama Bin Laden and other Al Qaeda and Taliban leaders, but it is never enough!

Glenn Beck, the lunatic, has now said that if any of his staff members mention Obama’s name in the next four years, they will be fired. He plans to avoid mentioning Obama at all, but if so, how will he continue to make his millions as a demagogue dividing America, since his whole living has been based on destroying Obama with his reckless rhetoric?

And there has been a plan by the far right to try to prevent the Electoral College from counting electoral votes, but that was done in early December in all of the state capitols, and the joint session of Congress today will see Vice President Joe Biden open up 51 envelopes and announce the results of the Electoral College. And even if one or two electors are disloyal, Barack Obama and Joe Biden will be declared the winners of the election, since their margin of victory in electoral votes is 62 votes more than the 270 needed to win!

And World Net Daily, an extremist, conspiratorial news website, has suggested that Chief Justice John Roberts announce that he will refuse to swear in the President for another term on Inauguration Day. In actual fact, Roberts will, assuredly, do no such thing, as he worries about his own reputation and that of the Supreme Court, and is not about to destroy his own image and reputation, which has been promoted by his decisive vote in the ObamaCare case in June of 2012!

But even if by some fluke, Roberts went crazy, it is not a requirement that the Chief Justice must give the oath to the President. ANY judge or Justice can do so, and one can be certain that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg or Justice Stephen Breyer or even Justice Anthony Kennedy would take on the responsibility if Roberts was to go off the deep end and destroy his whole career by refusing to do so.

And, finally, Lyndon B. Johnson was sworn in on Air Force One by a woman federal district court judge, Sara Hughes, on November 22, 1963, after the assassination of John F. Kennedy, so again, it does not even have to be a Supreme Court Justice who swears in the President.

It is clear the right wing lunatics will stop at nothing to attack and destroy Barack Obama, but while they make money off gullible and stupid people, it does not change the reality that Barack Obama is the choice of the American people, has accomplished a lot in his first term, and despite constant barriers, will achieve a lot in his second term, and go down as one of our better Presidents in American history!

Second Term Presidencies Are Difficult: The Odds Against Success Of Barack Obama!

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When one examines two term Presidencies, it is clear that there is a great likelihood of disappointment and failure as the President becomes a “lame duck”, and particularly, so after the midterm elections, as everyone looks forward to the race for his successor in office.

The following Presidents had difficult second terms:

Thomas Jefferson–with the Chesapeake Affair
James Madison–with the British attack on Washington DC during the War of 1812
Ulysses S. Grant–with the Panic of 1873 and exposure of the Credit Mobilier scandals
Grover Cleveland–with the Panic of 1893 and the Pullman Strike
Woodrow Wilson–with the First World War and the Treaty Of Versailles and his stroke
Franklin D. Roosevelt–with the failure of the Supreme Court “Packing” Plan and Recession Of 1937-1938
Harry Truman–with the Korean War and the Red Scare (McCarthyism)
Richard Nixon–with the Watergate Scandal
Ronald Reagan–with the Iran-Contra Scandal
Bill Clinton–with the Monica Lewinsky Scandal and the Impeachment Trial
George W. Bush–with the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars and Hurricane Katrina and failed attempt to privatize Social Security

The only Presidents to have successful second terms were:

George Washington
James Monroe
Andrew Jackson
Theodore Roosevelt
Dwight D. Eisenhower

Barack Obama hopes to bring about:

Immigration Reform Legislation
Gun Control Legislation
Climate Change Legislation
Stability in International Affairs

The likelihood of success is very doubtful, however, with so much division, conflict, turmoil, and polarization, caused by the Tea Party Movement and the Republican control of the House of Representatives.

At most, Obama might be able to promote changes in the judiciary, particularly on the Supreme Court, if vacancies occur, as is expected, but even there, it is assured there will be major battles over every appointment, and the possibility of filibustering nominees.

This reality is already showing itself with the interference and opposition to Susan Rice to be Secretary of State, before she was ever considered for nomination, and now Chuck Hagel, a possible choice for Secretary of Defense, who despite being a Republican, has already built up major opposition in the party that he represented in the Senate for 12 years from the state of Nebraska!

There seems the likelihood that no matter what Obama does or says, he will have vehement opposition, not only during the first two years, but even in his last two years as a “lame duck”, having less influence each month as the Presidential Election Of 2016 approaches!

A Day To Celebrate Promotion Of Human Rights: 150th Anniversary Of Emancipation Proclamation!

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Today marks the most momentous day in all of American history, regarding the promotion of human rights! It is the 150th anniversary of the issuance by President Abraham Lincoln of the Emancipation Proclamation!

Lincoln had issued the Preliminary Emancipation Proclamation on September 22, 1862, five days after the bloody Battle of Antietam, the bloodiest day in the Civil War. His entire cabinet was opposed to what he did, and had doubts about the final issuance of the Emancipation Proclamation 100 days later.

But Abraham Lincoln had the guts, the courage, the conviction that ending slavery was an essential part of the advancement of American democracy, and would help promote the victory of the Union forces over the Confederacy.

Lincoln knew that the Emancipation Proclamation was only a pledge to end slavery, and that the only true way to bring it about was military victory, and the passage two years later of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, an event excellently portrayed in the movie LINCOLN, with Daniel Day-Lewis portraying the events leading to the passage of that amendment by the House of Representatives.

Slavery’s end did not mean an easy time or adjustment for African Americans or the nation, as racial violence and discrimination would be a sad part of the future, but it was a necessary step forward on the march of human rights, including later passage of the 14th Amendment, the 15th Amendment, the 19th Amendment, the 26th Amendment, the various Civil Rights Acts (1866, 1875, 1957, 1960, 1964, 1965, 1968), and significant Supreme Court decisions on civil rights of women, minorities, labor, young people, and gays and lesbians.

The march of time has been toward the granting of greater human rights, but it all began with Lincoln’s courageous gamble, 150 years ago today, and for that, as so much else, all Americans should salute him today!

And it is inspiring to see massive lines at the National Archives in Washington, DC, as the Emancipation Proclamation is on view for a limited time to celebrate the event, but with the need to preserve a document which is in fragile condition after a century and a half of existence.

What Lincoln did in 1863 is connected to the whole long range story of American history, the expansion of human rights for all, and this is what draws foreigners to wish to come to America, the land of liberty and opportunity!

Progressive Victories In 2012

Ronald 2 Comments

As the year 2012 comes to an end in the next few days, it is worth looking back to what progressive victories there have been in 2012.

The clear cut victory of Barack Obama is an event still reverberating in the emotions of this blogger, and the strong belief that the Obama coalition is solid, and will carry beyond him and affect politics over the next one to two generations! Any Democrat who is nominated for President in 2016 would be the favorite to win the White House, as the nation becomes more “blue” in states such as Arizona, Georgia and Texas.

The likelihood of the US Senate staying Democratic is also a conclusion from the events of 2012, as it was truly miraculous that every seat was retained, three gained, and only Nebraska lost to the Republicans in 2012. While 2014 again will see more Democratic seats (21) up than Republican seats (14), the odds of the Democrats losing a net total of six seats and losing control is extremely unlikely, and the possibility of gaining more seats is also very likely with the Republican party turning ever further to the Right politically, and further alienating the rapidly changing demographics of the country.

The biggest surprise of the year was the decision of Chief Justice John Roberts, a Bush II appointee, to back ObamaCare, guaranteeing its survival and success despite many barriers past, present and future. This was the most important decision of the Supreme Court in a long time, in the sense of its long range impact on the nation!

The great progress of gay rights and gay marriage was a wonderful event, with the likelihood of gay marriage being upheld by the Supreme Court, at least in some limited fashion, by June of next year.

The rise of the prominence and numbers of women in politics was exciting, and the true star of the year in that regard was Elizabeth Warren, the newly elected Senator from Massachusetts, who could become a Presidential possibility very quickly.

The massive contributions of Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton make them the two best decisions on personnel that President Obama made four years ago, and they have had an extremely positive effect on the historical record and reputation of Barack Obama.

The power of wealthy millionaires and billionaires to control the politics of America suffered a smashing defeat, an event thought unlikely after the Citizens United decision of the Supreme Court in 2010.

The reactionary and hateful agenda of the far Right, both politically and religiously, also suffered a great repudiation, and proved once again that optimism and progress win out over fear and regression, as long as the American people become engaged and involved in the agenda, and realize the threat to the great progress made in the past 80 years by the New Deal, Great Society, and the many political, social and economic reforms brought about by forward looking Democrats and Republicans in Congress, and by the leadership of Presidents of both parties who saw the need for more government intervention and regulation–including Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Notice that Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush are not included in this list, as they both set back the concept of fairness and equity that all of the other Presidents, including some Republicans, made part of their agenda, to the dismay of the right wing forces in America!

So 2012 has been a triumph in many ways for progressivism, liberalism, and the goals of the Left in American politics to make a society of justice, equity, and compassion!