Presidential Election Of 1996

Is Ezra Klein Correct That We Are Witnessing The Worst Congress Ever? YES, By A Landslide!

Ronald 3 Comments

The 111th Congress (2009-2010) has been seen by many observers as the most productive Congress since the 89th Congress (1965-1966).

But now, the 112th Congress (2011-2012) has been declared by Ezra Klein, the brilliant commentator of the Washington Post and MSNBC, as the WORST Congress EVER!

Is Ezra Klein correct in his assessment? ABSOLUTELY!

The 112th Congress, as Klein says, has failed to deal with the problems facing the country, and has had as its major agenda the defeat of President Obama for a second term, and in the process, holding Americans hostage in the midst of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression!

Klein points out the following:

No Congress, with records back to the 80th Congress of 1947-1948, has produced such little passage of legislation, with the smallest being the 104th Congress (1995-1996), with 333 laws passed, and Democrat Bill Clinton being relected President in 1996 as a result.

Congress has only a ten percent approval rating, an all time low, with the Internal Revenue Service being at a popularity rate of 40 percent; Lawyers at 29 percent; President Richard Nixon during Watergate at 24 percent; Banks at 23 percent; the British Petroleum Oil Spill at 16 percent; and Paris Hilton at 15 percent, as examples!

The 112th Congress is the most polarized Congress since the end of Reconstruction in the 1870s, and we all know what came after–the GILDED AGE period of corporate dominance, not well looked upon by historians, and reminding us that we are now, in so many respects, in a new GILDED AGE, personified not only by the GOP control in the House of Representatives and in many state governments, but by the wealthiest Presidential nominee in American history, Mitt Romney, worth twice the assets of the last eight Presidents from Richard Nixon to George W. Bush combined!

The Republican majority in the House and Republican opposition in the Senate set back economic recovery in 2011 and right up to this moment in 2012, by any measure! And this Congress caused the loss of America’s credit rating, and seem ready to do it again!

Voting unsuccessfully to repeal the Affordable Care Act THIRTY THREE times is an exercise in futility, and the House of Representatives has wasted approximately EIGHTY hours in doing nothing, two work weeks when they could have been working on job creation legislation!

This Congress has NOT passed any appropriations bills by the deadline of October 1 in 2011, and will not by October 1, 2012, as things stand!

The failure to provide for the future of our infrastructure–roads, bridges, subway systems, and airports– is a major problem for the long term.

Two Congressional experts, Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein, have written a book condemning the paralysis of the 112th Congress, saying it is the worst performance they have witnessed in 40 years of covering Congress!

In sum, the 112th Congress is an embarrassment, and there is no sign of any improvement in the future, particularly if the split Congress continues into the future!

The Misleading Public Opinion Polls: The Electoral College Will Decide The Election, Not A Public Opinion Poll!

Ronald 5 Comments

The public opinion poll industry is, sadly, misinforming the American people, when they try to tell us that the Presidential Election of 2012 is going to be a tight race, some even say, similar to 2000!

The facts are that Barack Obama has to deal with certain factors, including:

Massive HATRED by many people who simply will not accept that we have an African American President and will do whatever is required to defeat him.

The fact that the Citizens United case allows corporations SuperPACS, and billionaires to spend inordinate amounts of money to attempt to poison the atmosphere, and defeat Obama simply by the power of money.

The fact that the Republican Party is trying to disenfranchise millions in 24 states, by refusing to accept alternative forms of identification, such as college student IDs, but, as in Texas, for example, accepting gun permits as an acceptable ID. So we are having poor people, college students, the elderly, and minorities being told they cannot vote, unless they spend large amounts of money, time and travel to acquire what is required under various discriminatory state laws, that violate the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and are veiled poll taxes, outlawed under the 24th Amendment to the Constitution in 1964!

But Attorney General Eric Holder, despite being cited for contempt of Congress for flimsy reasons, is determined to do what is necessary to stop these violations of the right to vote!

In any case, only by race hatred, corrupt fund raising, and violations of the Constitution, amendments and civil rights laws, can the Republicans win, and that is NOT going to happen!

Remember the following, which this author has emphasized again and again!

The election will be won in the “swing states”, the “battleground states”, but there are enough BLUE states already to give Barack Obama a total of 242 electoral votes, 28 short of what is needed, a total of 270 electoral votes, to win the Presidency on November 6!

As stated many times before, these states are: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Washington State, Oregon, California, and Hawaii–18 states and Washington, DC.

The “Swing States” or “Battleground States” are as follows: New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada–eleven states with a total of 129 electoral votes, and all of these states, except Missouri won by Barack Obama in 2008, with Missouri lost by just a few thousand votes to John McCain.

So IF Barack Obama wins Florida, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Ohio and Virginia, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Virginia and North Carolina, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins North Carolina and Ohio, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Ohio and Missouri, he wins the Presidency!

If he wins Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia, he wins the Presidency!

Obama is likely to win Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada right now, while having more trouble in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and New Hampshire.

But he COULD win them all, adding Missouri to the other states he won last time! And he has a shot at winning Arizona, Montana and Georgia, as well, with the growing Hispanic and Latino vote in those states! So he COULD win a total of 32 states and Washington DC in this upcoming election!

So Obama COULD win MORE electoral votes than last time, which has been the case for EVERY two term President since Woodrow Wilson failed to do that in 1916, after winning his first term a century ago in 1912.!

Just for the record, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush are the Presidents who won a bigger second term electoral vote than their first term!

So, readers, stop obsessing and worrying, if you are a supporter of Barack Obama, and to those who are Mitt Romney supporters, stop being delusional and believing that your candidate will be the 45th President, because the 44th President of the United States is coming back: FOUR MORE YEARS FOR 44!

Virginia And Florida: Two “Swing” States With Strong “Blue Areas”: Will It Be Enough For Barack Obama?

Ronald 1 Comment

Two “swing” states, crucial to the Presidential Election of 2012, are also Southern states, which have usually been fertile Republican territory, but not necessarily this time, as they were not in the Presidential Election of 2008.

Those two states are Virginia and Florida, where much of the battle for the Presidency will be centered over the next six months.

Virginia had voted Republican since after 1964, until Barack Obama won it in 2008. The key area that helped bring the Obama victory was northern Virginia, near Washington DC. This area has seen a continuous growth of federal government employees, many of them for the Pentagon in northern Virginia, but also other government workers who have settled in that area of the state. Additionally, many young people, African Americans, and Hispanics and Latinos have settled in Northern Virginia in recent years, and women have been alienated from the Republicans, due to the vaginal probe bill introduced by Governor Bob McDonnell, a leading candidate for the Vice Presidential nomination to run with Mitt Romney.

Virginia is really two states, and in that regard, not all that different than many other states, but the Northern Virginia vote was enough to give Obama the win in 2008, and right now, it seems likely that scenario will happen again in 2012.

Florida is another such case, with South Florida the “blue” area of the state, and helping Barack Obama to win the state in 2008, only the third time since the late 1960s to go to the Democrats (the other times being 1976 and 1996 when Southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton carried the state).

The margin of victory in Florida was gained by South Florida support, just as was so in Northern Virginia, and the growth of non Hispanic Cubans, plus the northeastern and Jewish influence in South Florida, seem likely to give Barack Obama another opportunity to gain the state in a close vote finish in November!

The Democratic Party Edge In The Electoral College Is Reality!

Ronald Leave a comment

In the midst of all of the public opinion polls about popularity of the Presidential candidates, one is tempted to forget that the Electoral College will decide who the next President will be, and the Democrats have a vast advantage since they have a clear edge in most of the larger states with many more electoral votes.

If one candidate wins the top ELEVEN electoral vote states, he wins the election, even if he were to face a massive defeat in popular votes in the other 39 states!

Of course, no one is likely to win all of the top eleven states, but the point is that the Electoral College gives great power to the larger populated states, and all that is required is to win one more popular vote in a state than your opponent to win all of the electoral votes of that state.

So if one looks at the top eleven states, we discover that the Democrats and President Barack Obama have a guaranteed win in California (55), New York (29), Illinois (20), and New Jersey (14) for a total of 118 electoral votes.

Obama also has an edge to win in Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), and North Carolina (15) for a total of 69 electoral votes.

If Obama wins these eight states, he has 187 electoral votes already, not counting other Northeastern, New England, and Pacific Coast states that he is widely expected to win.

The three states that might go Republican are Texas (38), Florida (29), and Georgia (16), but Florida could go Democratic, and even Georgia is considered a long shot for the Democrats.. These three states together have 83 electoral votes. If Obama won Florida, as he did in 2008, and the eight states he is expected to win, which he also won in 2008, he would have 216 electoral votes from just those nine states!

So together, the top eleven states have 270 electoral votes, EXACTLY what is needed to win the White House!

So forget popular vote public opinion polls, as the odds of Mitt Romney winning the election in the Electoral College, let alone the popular vote totals, is not worth betting on, once one realizes the reality of the Electoral College.

Further proof of the difficulty for Republicans to win a vast majority of the Electoral College is the fact of the massive Electoral College wins by Bill Clinton twice (370 and 379) and Barack Obama once (365), while George W. Bush could not hit over 271 and 286 in electoral votes in 2000 and 2004!

The odds are much greater that Barack Obama will surpass his 365 electoral votes of 2008 in 2012, just as Bill Clinton improved his second time around!

2012 Presidential Election: Possibly Another Bush, And Even A Clinton?

Ronald 3 Comments

Speculation is rampant that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush might indeed agree to run for Vice President with Mitt Romney.

After denying it for so long, Jeb now has left the door open, but makes clear he would rather not be on the ticket.

It is interesting how Florida Senator Marco Rubio promotes Jeb, and Jeb keeps on promoting Rubio for Vice President.

Would Jeb Bush help Romney in the Fall campaign? Both yes and no!

Obviously, Jeb is very intelligent, a good speaker, and a mainline conservative, who is not reckless, and does not make loony statements about issues. He is married to an Hispanic (Mexican) woman, is seen by many as a successful Governor of Florida, and in theory, could help to deliver that state to Romney in the fall. He is seen as a potential candidate for President in 2016, and even being on a losing ticket, he probably would gain stature for such a race by coming to the aid of Romney and the party now.

On the other hand, the question is whether there is a desire for a third Bush on a national ticket, particularly with the controversies over his brother, George W. Bush, and his eight years in office. There is believed to be an exhaustion with things Bush at this point of time. And imagine the idea of having a Bush on the national ticket every election since 1980 except 1996 and 2008, six of the last eight Presidential elections! Those who dislike the Bushes, particularly, George W. Bush, might not be willing to vote for Mitt Romney with Jeb Bush on the ticket.

And then, there are still the rumors flying that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton might agree to run for Vice President, in place of Joe Biden, in order to add strength to Barack Obama’s campaign. She laughs it off, and says it will not happen, but if Obama were to ask her, could she really say no?

So imagine an election with a Bush AND a Clinton on the national tickets, which would mark one or both names on the national scene every election since 1980, except 2008, and only not in 2008 because Hillary Clinton lost the nomination to Barack Obama.

There could very well be exhaustion and disgust at the thought of what might be seen as two “royal” dynasties in America, the Bushes and the Clintons!

What Is Wrong With Mitt Romney? The Bethel Bakery And Liberty University Commencement Speech Controversies

Ronald 3 Comments

What is it about Mitt Romney?

Romney has absolutely no sense of propriety, of what is right to do for his own candidacy!

Romney was in the Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania area the other day, trying to relate to “ordinary people” at a gathering, sitting down at a table to have a snack of cookies, provided by a local bakery of reputation, the Bethel Bakery.

So what does he do? He questions whether the cookies are really made by a local bakery, thinking they are from the local 7 11, and thereby insulting the owner of Bethel Bakery, and making the incident yet another embarrassment, and slip up on the part of Romney, who has had so many, it is easy now to lose count! A basic rule of civility is to NEVER criticize food provided by a host!

Heads have to be shaking and eyes rolling over Romney’s ability to self destruct. YES, we are all human and make mistakes, but if Romney can make this many on silly, stupid things, imagine him making decisions on important matters!

Then, to top it off, it was announced that Romney will give the commencement address to the graduating class at Liberty University in Virginia, operated by the son and heir of the dead Christian TV evangelist, Jerry Falwell, the founder of the Moral Majority and Christian Coalition.

Liberty University, now run by Jerry Falwell, Jr, is infamous for condemning homosexuality, and banning any known gay students or faculty. It is also where Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia wrote a masters thesis, condemning “cohabitors, homosexuals, and fornicators”, and also attacked feminists, working women, and contraception by unmarried couples. He also condemned unwed mothers, no fault divorce, the New Deal, the Great Society, and he called for punishment for pornography, homosexuality and drug abuse by the state! This is the man who is Governor of Virginia, and a front runner for Vice Presidential nominee with Mitt Romney!

This is the university that Mitt Romney has agreed to speak before its graduating class! The question is WHY, as this only contributes to putting Romney “in bed” with the extreme right wing Christian conservative fanatics who promote hate and prejudice! Is this the way that Romney wishes to look to the average independent voter, to the average woman, to the average Hispanic or Latino, and YES, to gay men and women, a substantial number who are registered Republican? Is this his way to overcome his Mormon faith, which many right wing conservatives think of as a cult?

What is wrong with Mitt Romney’s head, his thinking pattern, his wife even (who could convince him of the stupidity of doing a commencement speech for the Jerry Falwell school)?

This is why Mitt Romney is going to be a total disaster for the Republican Party in 2012. He makes one long for John McCain in 2008, Bob Dole in 1996, and get this, even George W. Bush in 2000, with his vision of a “Compassionate Conservatism”, before the disaster of the Bush Presidency had a chance to emerge over the next eight years!

History Favors Obama and Democratic Party Second Term Presidencies

Ronald Leave a comment

In the discussion over whether Barack Obama will have a second term of office, one must consider history as a guide.

If one looks at the facts, one discovers that only THREE Democratic Presidents have ever been defeated for re-election–Martin Van Buren in 1840; Grover Cleveland in 1888 (even though he actually won the popular vote by about 100,000 nationally); and Jimmy Carter in 1980.

So in the past 124 years, only one Democrat has lost re-election, and face the facts, Barack Obama is NOT Jimmy Carter and Mitt Romney is not Ronald Reagan!

Grover Cleveland came back to win in the following election over Benjamin Harrison who had defeated him in 1888, being the only nonconsecutive terms President in American history.

Woodrow Wilson had a very close contest against Charles Evans Hughes for re-election in 1916, but won.

Franklin D. Roosevelt still had over 20 percent unemployment when he first ran for re-election in 1936, but won a landslide over Alf Landon, as well as solid victories over Wendell Willkie in 1940 and Thomas E. Dewey in 1944.

Harry Truman overcame all polls and defeated Dewey in an upset victory in 1948, even after the opposition party had won both houses of Congress in 1946.

Lyndon B. Johnson won the biggest popular vote landslide in history over Barry Goldwater in 1964.

Bill Clinton won a solid victory over Bob Dole in 1996, despite having lost both houses of Congress in 1994.

And despite criticisms, Barack Obama has a positive record of achievement in his first term to match that of Wilson and FDR in their first term and Lyndon B. Johnson in his first year, and more than Grover Cleveland, Harry Truman, and Bill Clinton in their first term, and Jimmy Carter in his only term of office.

So don’t bet too heavily on Obama losing re-election in November!

The Secretive Mitt Romney: An Enigma Wrapped Inside Of A Mystery

Ronald Leave a comment

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney may have been running for President for the past six years, but we hardly know him.

His time in public office was limited to one four year term, and he did not exactly endear his state to his personality. Polls indicated he would have problems being re-elected in 2006.

While running for President in 2008 and 2012, his opponents found him to be the least engaging, friendly and approachable of all of their competitors. He was not well liked!

He refuses to talk much about his religion, as if to do so might convince us that a Mormon should not be President. So he is reluctant to let us learn about the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, and that is a failure to communicate which is actually tragic.

He has told us little about his family history voluntarily, and hardly talks about his father, George Romney, who he much admired, but refuses to be as open as his dad was about his tax returns. He also shields his sons from too much being investigated, even though they are all full grown adults with careers and families.

His refusal to release more financial information is a sign of secretiveness, almost of being on the defensive, making one wonder if there are aspects of his financial background that he feels a need to hide.

He has wealthy financial backers, but does not wish to reveal them in depth.

He refuses to reveal his real feelings about anything, and if he became President in 2013, there is no way to know what kind of President he would be–a moderate, a traditional conservative, or a far right winger if the Congress were to be controlled by Tea Party radicals. Would he fight for anything with commitment, or just cave in to powerful forces in either party which might control the Congress?

No one really knows Mitt Romney and his core, and is unlikely to know even if he is President, as he would likely be a blank slate, hard to pinpoint.

Mitt Romney is a mystery, an unknown quantity, who is stiff, plastic, uncomfortable around people. He would be hard to warm up to, and for the average American to connect to on a personal basis.

The last two losing Republican Presidential candidates, Bob Dole in 1996 and John McCain in 2008, both had extensive experience in government and years of news coverage, and gave a feeling that we knew them much better, and in some ways were likeable and approachable.

Mitt Romney remains an enigma wrapped inside of a mystery, not likely to be revealed to the American people by Election Day!

Holy War In Play: Social Conservatives Against Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, And Separation Of Church And State!

Ronald Leave a comment

Social conservatives have always been a problem for the Republican Party since the rise of Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson and the Moral Majority, Christian Coalition and their associated groups, including large numbers of Tea Party Movement activists.

Insisting that separation of church and state are not the beliefs of the Founding Fathers who created our Constitution, the evangelical Right has been exasperated over the performance in office of Republican Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush, and discontented with the candidacies of Bob Dole in 1996 and John McCain in 2008.

So now, a large group of these social conservatives, including many religious leaders and wealthy businessmen, have met in Texas, and decided to coalesce around former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum as the best hope to stop former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination.

More than two thirds of those gathered in Texas decided that Texas Governor Rick Perry and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had too many weaknesses and shortcomings, and that Santorum, who has emphasized his opposition to gay rights and abortion rights, was their “man”!

These religious right wingers are desperate to defeat Barack Obama, but see Romney as a “Massachusetts liberal”, and many are uncomfortable with a Mormon running for the Presidency, as many of them see the Church of Latter Day Saints as a cult.

It will be interesting to see whether the Evangelical Right will be able to stop Romney from being the nominee, and stop Barack Obama from having a second term of office in the White House.

The whole idea of a Mormon candidate against a mixed race President, who is black in appearance, drives these religious fanatics crazy. The whole concept of separation of church and state, and the idea of personal freedom of individuals to control their own lives, drive these extremists to fury and anger.

Hate is the key word here, and it seems likely that the evangelical Right will lose on both counts, and America will be the better for their repudiation!

The Republican Tradition Of “Next In Line” For The Presidential Nomination

Ronald 1 Comment

The Republican Party has developed a tradition of choosing the “next in line” for their Presidential nomination in the past half century, with the one exception of Barry Goldwater in 1964, which became a total disaster.

Witness:

1960–Richard Nixon was “next in line” as Vice President to succeed Dwight D. Eisenhower.
1968–Richard Nixon was “next in line” after the Goldwater debacle, as a “second chance” for the “workhorse” of the Republican Party.
1976–Gerald Ford had succeeded Richard Nixon, and was therefore “entitled” to the nomination of the party.
1980–Ronald Reagan had fought the “good fight” against Gerald Ford and carried the conservative tradition of Barry Goldwater, so was “next in line”.
1988–George H. W. Bush had finished behind Reagan in 1980, and served as his Vice President loyally for eight years, so was “next in line”.
1996–Bob Dole had competed and lost to Bush in 1988, had also competed for the nomination in 1980, and run with Gerald Ford for Vice President in 1976, so was “entitled” to the nomination.
2000-George W. Bush wished to carry on the tradition and heritage of his father, who had been defeated by Bill Clinton, with the assistance of third party candidate Ross Perot in 1992, so was seen as “next in line”.
2008–John McCain, who had been the leading opponent of George W. Bush in 2000, was seen as “next in line”, “entitled” to the nomination of the party.
2012–Mitt Romney ended up second, losing to John McCain in 2008, so is seen by many as “next in line” for the nomination.

Of course, in none of these elections did the “next in line” gain the nomination just for the asking, and that will not happen in 2012 either, but it is, in historical terms, an interesting state of affairs!