Minnesota

British Betting Odds On Democratic Vice Presidential Nominees

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If one goes by British betting odds, the list of potential Democratic Vice Presidential nominees is as follows:

In front is Julian Castro, former San Antonio Mayor, who is presently Secretary of Housing and Urban Development; followed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren; Virginia Senator Tim Kaine; Secretary of Labor Tom Perez (from Maryland); and former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (who was in the Democratic Presidential race).

After those five, the odds on others, in their order, are New Jersey Senator Cory Booker; Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown; and then Minnesota Senators Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar.

Looking at the list, the “safest” choices to make are Castro, Perez, O’Malley, Franken, and Klobuchar, as the first two are cabinet members and not potentially giving up a Senate seat; O’Malley is out of office; and Franken and Klobucar come from a solidly “blue” state that has a Democratic Governor able to appoint a Democratic replacement were either to be elected Vice President.

Warren and Booker come from states with Republican Governors, who would be able to appoint a Republican temporarily as their replacement, while Kaine and Brown comes from “swing states” with a Republican governor in Ohio, and a Democratic Governor in Virginia now under federal investigation in a state which would be Republican if not for northern Virginia’s strong Democratic bent.

The Growing Significance Of Minnesota In The Vice Presidential Sweepstakes For The Democrats!

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Minnesota is a strongly Democratic state, with a Democratic Governor, Mark Dayton, who has been very successful in promoting economic growth in the state.

It also has two Democratic Senators, Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar, both supremely qualified to be Vice President.

It was also the state of Vice President and Presidential nominee Hubert Humphrey in 1968, and Vice President and Presidential nominee Walter Mondale in 1984.

It was also the state of Senator Eugene McCarthy and Senator Paul Wellstone.

Hillary Clinton has to consider both Franken and Klobuchar, as it is assured that either one in the Vice Presidency would be replaced by a Democrat, not assured in other states, including New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia.

Franken would be a great “attack dog” against Republican Donald Trump, and would be the first Jewish Vice President if Hillary Clinton won the White House.

Klobuchar would be the first woman Vice President, and far superior to Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin in qualifications and experience.

Either Franken or Klobuchar would be a worthy successor to Joe Biden to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency!

Potential White Male Vice Presidential Nominees For Hillary Clinton’s Presidential Campaign In 2016

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If Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton decides not to go “radical” and select a woman or a person of minority heritage as her Vice Presidential choice for the upcoming Presidential Election of 2016, she has a long list of potential white males to choose from.

She could go for a Senator from a “swing” state, including the following:

Virginia–Senator Mark Warner or Senator Tim Kaine

Ohio–Senator Sherrod Brown (who I projected on December 31 as the likely choice)

Florida–Senator Bill Nelson

But there are other potential nominees, including:

Incumbent Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, which I recommended on this blog in February 2015, and was interviewed about it by John Hockenberry of THE TAKEAWAY on National Public Radio on January 21 of this year, which can be found under “Interviews” on the right side of the blog

Senator Al Franken of Minnesota

Former Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut

Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon

Of these nine potential candidates, the most likely would seem to be Brown, Kaine, and Franken in that order.

Biden and Nelson will both be 74 this year, five years older than Hillary Clinton, while O’Malley opposed Hillary in the early primaries and Merkley is the only US Senator to have endorsed Bernie Sanders, making them less likely.

Warner seems less likely than Kaine from Virginia, due to his close race for reelection in 2014, one he almost lost, and Murphy, one of the brightest young liberals, is more of a “dark horse”, not mentioned by many, but a possible surprise choice.

The Likelihood Of An Historic Vice Presidential Nomination For The Democrats: A Woman Or A Person Of Minority Heritage

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Speculation has begun about who Democrat Hillary Clinton’s potential choices for Vice President might be, but it seems more and more likely that it will be an historic choice, likely NOT to be a white male, but rather a woman or a leader of minority heritage.

It is true that Democrat Walter Mondale selected New York Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, and that Republican John McCain selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin in 2008, but this time around, the possible candidates for a woman are much stronger choices.

If one is considering a woman, which some think is “radical” to do, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is seen as the most likely choice, but her fame and her age work against her, and it would make more sense to pick a woman who is substantially younger, and could be a potential successor eight years from now–such as Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota or Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington State.

If Hillary wants to select someone from a minority heritage, the best would be Latinos, such as former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, presently Secretary of Housing and Urban Development; or Secretary of Labor Tom Perez of Maryland; and if African American, the best would be New Jersey Senator Cory Booker or former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick.

In another blog entry forthcoming tomorrow, we will consider white males as potential Vice Presidential nominees, with quite a long list of such candidates!

The Possibility Of An All Female Presidential-Vice Presidential Team To Lead America: Hillary Clinton And?

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America could be on the brink of seeing the first all female Presidential ticket!

It is rumored that Hillary Clinton might pick one of the following female running mates:

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren

Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar

Washington Senator Patty Murray

Washington Senator Maria Cantwell

Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow

The most exciting is Elizabeth Warren, but the long range future possible female President, after a theoretical eight years as Vice President, would be Amy Klobuchar or Maria Cantwell, both from safe blue states, and likely to be replaced by another Democrat.

The problem with Warren or McCaskill or Murray or Stabenow is their age, and the future in eight years!

Meanwhile, the Republicans might have South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as a potential Vice Presidential running mate. Another possibility would be New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez.

47 Years Since The Assassination Of Robert F. Kennedy: The Might Have Beens!

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Today, June 5, in the year 1968, 47 years ago, New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy, an active seeker of the Democratic Presidential nomination, had just won the California Primary over Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota.

It seemed as if RFK was on the way to the Democratic nomination, although Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who had not entered the primaries, had a strong backing from party bosses, labor unions, and city mayors and many Senators and Governors, so there was great uncertainty as to what might happen at the Chicago Convention at the end of August.

Tragically, however, history was transformed, as RFK was assassinated by a Palestinian Christian immigrant, Sirhan Sirhan, who was angered at RFK’s backing of Israel in the year earlier Six Day War, in which Israel won territory from Egypt, Jordan and Syria, with the war beginning precisely on that date in 1967!

There is still debate and speculation on the RFK murder, with some believing it was a conspiracy with more than one gunman involved.

In any case, RFK comes closest to any non Presidential nominee to be considered a likely winner of the Presidency, had he not been killed, so therefore the “Might Have Been” issue arises.

My forthcoming book on August 15, available with a 30 percent discount from Rowman Littlefield, with the indicated four digit code, devotes Chapter 10 to the Robert F. Kennedy assassination!

Iowa Freshman Republican Senator Joni Ernst To Give Response To Obama State Of The Union Address: What A Comedy Routine It Will Likely Be!

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One of the nuttiest, wackiest new Republicans in the new 114th Congress has been compared to former Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and former Alaska Governor Saran Palin.

That is Iowa Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who, like Bachmann and Palin, has a great personal appearance, but it is clear that she, like Bachmann and Palin, has very little brain matter upstairs.

This woman acted in a goofy way when she accepted victory in the Iowa Senate race against Congressman Bruce Braley in November. She has spouted Tea Party values, which promote taking us backward and are narrow minded and intolerant. It will be interesting to see how she presents herself tonight, as the Republican response to the State of the Union address of President Obama.

She is an extremely poor replacement for Iowa’s distinguished former Senator Tom Harkin, who was one of the bright lights in the Senate, and sought the Presidency on the Democratic side in the 1992 Presidential race, with this blogger being in support of his candidacy, as the best person in that race.

Despite losing that competition, Harkin served for 30 exceptional years in the US Senate, and Iowa has made a mistake in electing this lightweight woman to be his replacement.

Watching her deliver the response to the State of The Union Address on Tuesday night will, likely, be entertaining, a comedy routine that will likely be repeated on Saturday Night Live, and joked about on Bill Maher’s show on HBO.

It is great to have more women in the Senate and House of Representatives, but somehow, the GOP seems incapable of getting bright, intelligent women to run for public office, as compared to those women who run on the Democratic line. This is a tragedy of major proportions!

Republican Insanity In The House Of Representatives As Speaker John Boehner Is Challenged By Louie Gohmert And Ted Yoho!

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The 114th Congress is due to open on Tuesday, and this first all Republican Congress since the end of 2006 should be one for the books, in a negative way!

Having come off two successive Congresses (112th and 113th), which set records for the most incompetent, unaccomplished Congresses in modern American history, with both having a divided Congress, rare in American history, we can now expect total breakdown, craziness, and outrage to become the norm ever more.

It all begins with a last minute challenge within the GOP to the leadership of Speaker of the House John Boehner of Ohio, who has been seen as the worst modern Speaker in many decades!

Boehner has had trouble controlling his own caucus members in the past four years as Speaker, and had a challenge to his second two year Speakership two years ago, but now he faces another threat to be dumped by his caucus when it meets on Tuesday.

The largest Republican caucus since 1929, but with fewer Tea Party members as a percentage of the total, Boehner should have no problem disposing of his opponents, but the whole idea that two lunatic members of the right wing fringe Tea Party are challenging him, is in itself memorable as to just how much insanity there is the Republican Party of 2015!

Who would think that two of the most looney members of the Republican Party–Louie Gohmert of Texas and Ted Yoho of Florida—would believe they are qualified to lead the House, and be two heartbeats away from the Presidency as a result?

Gohmert, in the House since 2005, joined the loonies of the loonies—Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and Steve King of Iowa—in being part of the “Three Stooges”—the most embarrassing trio in Congress, bare none, and now Ted Yoho, a newcomer as of two years ago, has been competing to join this trio, which now lacks Michele Bachmann, who retired at the end of the last Congress, under investigation for corruption in her 2012 Presidential campaign, which marked the looniest campaign for the White House in memory. Yoho, with a name like that, desperately wants to be noticed, and is unwilling to allow Gohmert to get all the attention, so is making it a two pronged attack on the Speaker.

This should insure that Boehner keeps the position, even though, by all same judgments, he should be kicked out as someone who has disgraced the office, and desperately needs Alcoholics Anonymous, as everyone knows, but few speak out, that he has a major drinking problem that needs attention!

What a statement that the best that the GOP can conjure up for the Speakership of the “People’s Branch”, is Boehner, Gohmert, and Yoho!

The Democratic Party Winners In The 2014 Midterm Elections!

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While the Democrats lost more seats in the House of Representatives, and lost 8-9 seats in the US Senate and majority control as a result, there WERE Democratic triumphs worthy of mention!

Jeanne Shaheen won a second term in the Senate, defeating Scott Brown in the New Hampshire Senate race.

Al Franken won a second term in the Senate in Minnesota.

Jeff Merkley won a second term in the Senate in Oregon.

Dick Durbin won a fourth term in the Senate in Illinois.

Chris Coons won a second term in the Senate in Delaware.

Ed Markey won a first full term in the Senate in Massachusetts, after having a special election victory in 2013 to replace Secretary of State John Kerry.

Cory Booker won a full Senate term in New Jersey.

Tom Udall won a second Senate term in New Mexico.

Jack Reed won a fourth Senate term in Rhode Island.

Mark Warner won a second Senate term in Virginia after a very close race with Ed Gillespie.

Brian Schatz won the remainder of a full term in the Senate from Hawaii.

Gary Peters was a new Senator elected in Michigan, to replace retiring Senator Carl Levin.

In the Governorship elections, Andrew Cuomo in New York and Jerry Brown in California won major victories, and also, Democrats kept or gained control of Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont–a total of ten victories. Their biggest win, however, was Tom Wolf, defeating Tom Corbett, making Pennsylvania, the sixth largest state, run by Democrats again!

It is not that Democrats have a total great number of victories, but it is worth mentioning that they are far from giving up on regaining the Senate in 2016, and many Governorships are likely to go to the Democrats as part of a “wave”, helped along by the strong likelihood of a Democratic Presidential nominee winning in 2016, and by a substantial majority in the Electoral College!

Family Names May Not Help Democratic Senators In Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, But Senate Will Remain Democratic With Margin of 53-47 Or 52-48!

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Three Democratic Senators with famous family names and moderate conservative records in office seem likely to be victims of the Republican opposition, and to lose their seats in November.

Mark Begich’s father was a Congressman from Alaska, but Begich seems likely to lose his seat to Dan Sullivan, the GOP nominee for his seat.

Mark Pryor’s father was a Senator from Arkansas, but Pryor seems likely to lose his seat to Republican Congressman Tom Cotton.

Mary Landrieu’s father and brother were Mayors of New Orleans, but although she is known for winning tight races, it seems likely she will lose her seat in the Senate to Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy.

However, these losses are likely to be matched by victories in Kentucky, Georgia, and Kansas, which will make it an even balance, and Virginia, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado, and Oregon are highly likely to remain Democratic. It is also clear that Montana and West Virginia are likely to switch from Democratic to Republican.

So the one seat left to be mentioned is South Dakota, with its four way race of Republican former Governor Mike Rounds; former Republican, now Independent Larry Pressler; and Democrat Rick Weiland, with even a fourth candidate, another Independent, Gordon Howie, making it highly likely that either Weiland or Pressler (who voted for Barack Obama twice despite his earlier GOP service in the Senate) might win this donnybrook of a race and join the Democratic caucus in the US Senate.

So this blogger predicts a final Senate of either 52 or 53 Democrats and Independents, and 47 or 48 Republicans, depending on South Dakota’s final results. That would be a 2 to 3 seat gain in the Senate for the GOP, but control of the Senate continuing for the Democrats!