Midterm Elections Of 2010

The Historical Reality On Midterm Elections!

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There are many predictions that the Republican Party may win either or both houses of Congress on November 2, the day of the midterm elections!

Historical reality is that whenever the party in power has lost one chamber of Congress, it also has lost the other house! Also, on the average since the beginning of the 20th century and the administration of Theodore Roosevelt, the party in power loses an average of 28 seats in the House of Representatives, and an average of 4 seats in the Senate!

Although some prognosticators seem to think that the Democrats will lose enough seats (10) to give up control of the Senate, it still seems a long shot to most! And since the Republicans would have to gain 39 seats to win the House of Representatives, that seems a tall order too, considering that if any seats are lost by the GOP in either house, that makes it all the more difficult for them to gain either chamber! To consider that the GOP will not lose any seats in either house of Congress, at a time when there is an anti incumbent attitude out there, seems an unlikely event!

It seems likely that the Democrats will lose close to the average of seats in both houses, but doubtful they will lose much more, if any, when the dust settles! But we shall see soon enough!

Fighting For The “Soul” Of The Republican Party: Internal Struggles in Florida, Delaware And Alaska!

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It is good to see that some Republicans, considered moderates, are refusing to allow the Tea Party Movement reactionaries to seize control of their party without a fight!

First, we had Charlie Crist, who decided to run as an Independent for the US Senate in Florida, and has a good chance to defeat Marco Rubio, the GOP and Tea Party nominee for that seat!

Then, we had Congressman Mike Castle of Delaware, who has refused to endorse Christine O’Donnell for the Senate after she defeated him in the primary this week, because of her lies and distortions, along with her lack of qualifications!

Now, belatedly, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is attempting to do something only one Senator ever has achieved–win the election by write ins only! Only Strom Thurmond of South Carolina accomplished that in 1954 as a Democrat! Murkowski lost the Senate nomination by a very small margin to Joe Miller, who she and many describe as an extremist with loony views! She attributes her defeat to her earlier unwillingness to come out fighting against him!

Of course, this Murkowski attempt at a write in victory will be very difficult, but she is well known and liked throughout the state, and her father also was Senator and Governor of Alaska! This is also a personal battle between the Murkowski family and Sarah Palin! The likelihood is that this move by Murkowski will fail, but help Democrat Scott McAdams to win the Senate seat!

The odds are that these internal revolts in the GOP will help the Democrats to keep control of the Senate and lose fewer seats than often imagined in the polls!

And should Murkowski pull out a miracle victory, and Crist win and even organize with the Republicans who have repudiated him (which seems highly unlikely), we will still be better off with two “moderate” Republicans than with two right wing fanatics in the Senate!

The future of the Republican party as an opposition is to be what they were historically–a centrist party leaning to the right, just as the Democratic Party is a centrist party leaning to the left–the mainstream where most Americans are then and now!

The worst possible scenario would be if the “Tea Party Eight” all won Senate seats, as that would be a nightmare not just for the Democratic party and the nation, but also for Senator Mitch McConnell and other establishment Republican leaders in the upper chamber!

Using The Power Of The Majority: Finally, The Democrats Are Taking Action On Important Legislation!

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With less than seven weeks to the midterm elections, the Obama Administration is coming out swinging, ready to assert the power of the majority, something the Republicans know how to do when they are the majority!

With the threat that the Republicans might regain the majority, the Democrats are finally moving to take action that may not succeed, but will at least show their intentions!

A small business bill has made it through the Senate, with the help of two “Georges” who are not seeking reelection, and have broken with the Republican filibuster. Senator George Voinovich of Ohio and Senator George LeMieux of Florida broke the filibuster on the legislation, making it a 61-38 vote to pass the bill.

Meanwhile, a Pentagon appropriations bill next week will be the moment where the Democrats in the Senate try to push through the end of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” in the military, and also push through the DREAM Act, which would allow children of illegal immigrants who are in the US through no action of their own, but arrived before age 16, have lived here for at least five years, have graduated high school, and have been in college for two years or served two years in the military, to become American citizens!

It is possible that the GOP will block passasge, but if so, it can be used as a campaign issue against them! It is long overdue for the Democrats to play hardball, and not worry about bipartisanship and cooperation since the Republican Party clearly declared war on the Obama Administration on Day One!

It is time for action on gay rights and immigration, and even though the Democrats have a low rating on their Congressional performance in Gallup polls, the GOP has an even lower score, so let them continue to bottleneck and blockade, and they will, hopefully, suffer at the polls on November 2!

Time For Obama Voters Of 2008 To Recognize Need To Vote In 2010!

Ronald 1 Comment

Every indication is that opponents of Barack Obama, including Republicans and conservatives and Tea Party Movement activists, and many independents, are enthused and motivated to vote, in order to paralyze the President’s agenda, and also to attempt a repeal of much of what he has been able to accomplish domestically, despite the Great Recession we are experiencing! 🙁

The lack of motivation, and the high level of apathy among Democrats and progressives, is threatening any possibility of further achievements in the next two years, including dealing with the economic suffering of millions of Americans! 🙁

Many are unhappy that the Great Recession is still very serious, and many are disillusioned that much of what they hoped would happen, has not occurred!

Many wanted a stronger health care law, and a more severe control of Wall Street! Many wanted to see quicker action on gay rights and many other social issues! Many wanted Barack Obama to be much more to the left than he has been!

BUT, if these Democrats and progressives “sit on their hands” and refuse to give financial support and vote for the party in the midterm elections, the result will be a greater blow to what these activists want!

This is not an ideal world, and while many on the left might wish Obama had done more of his agenda, they need to understand that everything that has been accomplished could be negated if the right wing wins the election, leading to total stalemate and gridlock between a potential GOP Congress and a Democratic President over the next two years! 🙁

What the author has just asserted was also echoed by Vice President Joe Biden last evening in an interview on the Rachel Maddow show on MSNBC!

The Republican Party In Disarray After Christine O’Donnell’s Victory In Delaware!

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The shocking, unexpected victory of Christine O’Donnell over Mike Castle for the GOP Senate nomination in Delaware last night had the effect of causing disarray within the Republican party establishment!

While conservative commentators, such as Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity hailed her victory, the loser of the election, Mike Castle, refused to endorse her, and there was a stunned silence and then slow reaction of support by GOP leaders such as Senator John Cornyn, the head of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, a committee that has seen eight of its preferred choices be rejected by voters, including Charlie Crist in Florida, Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, Mike Castle in Delaware, Rob Simmons in Connecticut, Jane Norton in Colorado, Bob Bennett in Utah, Sue Lowden in Nevada, and Trey Grayson in Kentucky!

Instead, we have as candidates those favored by the Tea Party Movement, many of them coming across as loony and extremist! The question is whether Marco Rubio in Florida, Joe Miller in Alaska, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, Linda McMahon in Connecticut, Ken Buck in Colorado, Mike Lee in Utah, Sharron Angle in Nevada, and Rand Paul in Kentucky can win those Senate seats, and if they do, how much of a headache they will create for the Republican Senate leadership, headed by Mitch McConnell!

And to top it off, Karl Rove, who helped to make George W. Bush President, made it clear that he did not support Christine O’Donnell, who he stated lacked the character and honesty and background needed to be a United States Senator! This has led to outrage by conservative commentators, and makes clear the disarray that exists, and is likely to lead to the defeat of many of these loony candidates!

The Republican Party is in the midst of a crisis that could very well lead to them NOT GAINING many seats in the Senate, and far fewer seats in the House than many polls have projected!

Anything can happen in the next seven weeks, but it is not time for anyone to feel assured that the GOP is about to gain control of either house of Congress!

The Complexity Facing The Republican Hopes For A Majority in Congress

Ronald 1 Comment

It has been much stated that the Republican Party is favored now to win a majority of the House of Representatives in November’s elections, with some chance of gaining control of the Senate as well!

The numbers always quoted are 39 in the House and 10 in the Senate, but it is not quite that simple!

To gain 39 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate also means that the Republicans cannot afford to lose any seats, and if they do, then the number of new Republicans needed in both chambers grows!

To believe that EVERY Republican in both houses running for re-election, and that every open seat that is Republican, will stay Republican is truly a dream beyond reality!

Remember there is a lot of anger and frustration with INCUMBENTS, but in both parties! The Tea Party Movement has been active in trying to defeat Republican incumbents where they can (as for instance Bob Bennett in Utah and Lisa Murkowski in Alaska), and are not automatically willing to back the Republicans when it comes to getting legislation through, if the GOP gains the majority!

So it is not going to be easy for the Republicans to gain enough seats, although it is acknowledged that the Democrats will certainly lose seats! But if by some chance the Republicans do gain enough seats, there will likely be paralysis as far as action is concerned to deal with the economic crisis, as the Tea Party activists who are elected will refuse to back spending and will insist on budget cuts, despite the reality that there is little that can be cut from the major parts of the budget–defense, interest on the national debt, Social Security, and Medicare!

In the light of day, the Republicans might very well regret their majority, as the Democrats will be able to claim by 2012 that they have been a reactionary, do nothing Congress, and the anger and frustration of the people will likely lead to a return of the Democrats to control of Congress, and the victory, probably by a wider margin, of President Barack Obama to a second term as President of the United States!

Alarming Rise In Poverty: Back To The 1960s Level! :(

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An Associated Press investigation demonstrates that the Great Recession, that America is suffering through since its beginning in December 2007, has led to a growing level of poverty unseen since the mid 1960s, which at that time led to the Great Society War On Poverty under President Lyndon B. Johnson! 🙁

This is not an issue of the chronically poor lower class that has always been a problem for America! It is the issue of millions of people, once considered middle class, who have, through loss of employment and loss of homes, become the “new poor” in America! 🙁

The statistics on poverty will be released soon, and might add to the growing burden of the Obama Administration in the upcoming midterm Congressional elections!

The poverty rate has been about 13.2 percent, but is expected to rise to near 15 percent, meaning one out of every seven Americans will be perceived as being in poverty, a total of about 45 million people, of all races, nationalities, and geographic sections of the nation! 🙁

It is forecast that the increase in poverty in one year will be the greatest since records were first tallied in 1959!

The working age population 18-64 is expected to see a rise from 11.7 to 12.4 percent, the highest since 1965 when the War on Poverty began under Johnson!

Tragically, the child poverty rate will be over 20 percent, meaning one out of every five children under 18 will be in poverty, not a good thing for the emotional and physical health of younger people, who are poor without any ability to change the situation! 🙁

The question will be how a GOP Congress would deal with the rising poverty rate, since their basic viewpoint is that people tend to be poor because they fail to try to improve themselves through education and job training because of “handouts” given to them by Democratic Congresses and Presidents! 🙁

Once the Republicans gain control, if they do, of Congress, they will have the burden and responsibility to decide how to handle the highest poverty rate, and the worst economic conditions since the 1930s, and will no longer have the option of just opposing!

So ironically, as some project, if the Republicans gain control and President Obama fights them on the need to help the poor and the unemployed, their newly gained majority could lead to a big turnover for the Democrats in 2012 and a re-election victory for the President!

In other words, a “wave” against the Democrats now could lead to a “wave” against the Republicans two years from now, as the American people express their impatience and anger by the chant of “throw the rascals out!”

The Governorships And State Legislatures: A Crucial Year For Both Political Parties!

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The elections in 37 states this November for the office of Governor, as well as the state legislative battles raging across the country, will have a very powerful effect on the fortunes of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party for the next decade, as this is the year of the census figures, and reapportionment of seats for the House of Representatives and the state legislatures will be determined over the next two years by the election results!

The party that controls the state legislature can use the practice of gerrymandering to set district lines to favor their party for the next decade! In a sense, redistricting allows leaders to choose their voters, instead of voters choosing their leaders! 🙁

The Republican Party is seen as favored to gain more by likely control of more state legislatures, with an estimate of gaining at least ten chambers this fall, which could give them the power to redraw up to 25 congressional districts!

At this point, the Democrats have the advantage, controlling 27 states to 14 for the GOP, with eight states having divided legislatures! But the momentum is against them in this round of such crucial elections!

However, the governorships are also a factor, as a governor can veto redistricting plans of the state legislature, and force the issue into extended court suits, if the Governor is of the party opposite of the legislative majorities!

So although there are 50 states, the larger states with more Congressional members have a greater role, and in those states, the Governorship races are therefore more crucial for both parties to win! Certainly, the most important states would thus include California, Texas, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Georgia, the top nine states, and all of these are battlegrounds, except possibly New York, where Andrew Cuomo is a heavy favorite to overcome either of his Republican opponents!

So the state races, both for the Governorship and the legislative balance, matter greatly, even more this year than usual!

Time To Unleash Obama’s “Secret Weapon” For The Midterm Elections: Vice President Joe Biden!

Ronald 1 Comment

With eight weeks to go to the midterm Congressional elections, and with the Gallup polls showing volatility and flux, it is time for President Obama to unleash his “secret weapon”, Vice President Joe Biden!

Obama is actively being more aggressive, a la Harry Truman, but Joe Biden is naturally a great campaigner, who knows how to inspire audiences and how to go on the attack against the opposition!

This is not a time, again, to act “nice”, as the opposition Republicans have no limits in tactics or speech regarding their purpose to destroy the Obama Administration!

So, Mr. President, it is time to “unleash” Joe Biden, send him out on the road, being as good if not better than Harry Truman, and not worrying about Republican and conservative talk show host criticism!

One good point, among many others, about Joe Biden is that he easily deflects irresponsible criticism, and is willing to anger and infuriate the opposition and still can sleep at night! 🙂

Joe Biden is one of the greatest assets Barack Obama has, and the President MUST utilize him to the fullest, as Joe is totally loyal to his President and will do whatever he is asked to do!

So hopefully, Joe Biden will be a true asset in this midterm Congressional election campaign! 🙂

The House Of Representatives Battlegrounds: Can The Democrats Keep Control?

Ronald 1 Comment

The NY Times has published a detailed look at the battleground states in play for the House of Representatives, which most polls now predict will go Republican in November.

As the Times portrays it, each party has 168 safe seats, with the remaining 99 in play!

However, the projection is that the Democrats lead in 47 and the Republicans in 19, with 33 seats a tossup. So if you count those that lean to one party or the other, the Democrats would have 215 seats, and the Republicans would have 187, meaning the Democrats would only need 3 more seats to keep control of the chamber!

Of course, leaning to one party or the other does not mean it is a guarantee that the elections will work out that way, and voter turnout and enthusiasm will be, as always, a key factor in the results! At this point, the enthusiasm and turnout has favored the Republicans, a bad sign for the Democrats in November if it continues! 🙁

When one looks at the key House races which are tossups, it is noticeable that Pennsylvania has four contested seats; while Florida and Illinois have three competitive seats; and Indiana, Michigan and New Hampshire each have two battleground seats! So 16 of the 33 tossup seats are in states which Barack Obama won. That plus 10 other seats in states which Obama won (Hawaii, Iowa, Maryland, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin) would mean a total of 26 seats, and if these all went to the Democrats, it would give them a total of 241 seats, meaning a loss of 16 seats, a mild loss!

But this is all speculative, and we will simply have to see if the Democrats can change the public mood in the next eight weeks and retain control of the House of Representatives and keep Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House!