Latinos

The All Crucial Hispanic-Latino Vote And The Presidential Election Of 2012: The Doom Of Mitt Romney

Ronald Leave a comment

There are many Anglo Americans (non Hispanic and Latino) who wish to imagine that their population will continue to control voting power and election results into the long term future.

That is an illusion, a fantasy, out of touch with reality!

The facts are that Hispanics and Latinos are the largest minority group in America, and combined with Asian Americans and African Americans, will tip to the majority of population, by estimate of the US Census Bureau, in about 30-35 years, by the mid 2040s.

Nothing is going to stop this, and it will influence all Presidential elections and Congressional elections more and more as the years go by.

So the facts about the Hispanic-Latino vote are worth noticing.

We have 50.5 million people of Spanish ancestry, one of every six Americans in 2010, a 13 percent increase since 2000. By 2030, it is expected that there will be a 21.8 percent increase to 78 million Hispanics-Latinos. By 2050 projections, there will be 27.8 percent of the population of this ancestry, about 111 million Americans.

More than six of every ten Hispanics-Latinos were born in America, with Mexicans being nearly two thirds of all people of this heritage, almost 32 million out of 50.5 million, and with Puerto Ricans, (who are automatically citizens), being the second largest group with 4.6 million, over 9 percent of the population of Hispanics-Latinos.

Cubans are third with 1.8 million; Salvadorans a surprising fourth with 1.6 million; Dominicans fifth with 1.4 million, Guatemalans sixth with about one million; Colombians seventh with about 900,000; Hondurans eighth with 600,000; Ecuadorans ninth with about 550,000; and Peruvians tenth with about 525,000.

In order, there are smaller numbers of Nicaraguans, Argentinians, Venezuelans, Panamanians, Chileans, Costa Ricans, Bolivians, Uruguayans, Other Central Americans, and Paraguayans.

51 percent of Hispanic-Latino registered voters are Democrats, with 31 percent Independents, and 18 percent Republican. But only 11 million are registered, and the push is on to register more Hispanic-Latino voters, particularly by the Democrats.

About two thirds of Hispanic-Latino voters have gone for the Democrats in their voting behavior in the past ten years, with the high point for Republicans being George W. Bush in 2004 with 44 percent, dropping to 31 percent for John McCain, and at the moment, 14 percent for Mitt Romney, who has taken a very hard line backing Arizona and other states which have passed discriminatory profiling laws.

If that 14 percent vote holds, or only goes up a bit, then the projection is that Barack Obama will win about 55 percent of the popular vote against Mitt Romney, what could be termed a landslide, since it insures that Obama would win all Hispanic growth states, including Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, and get a larger percentage of the vote in Texas, Arizona and Georgia, all states that over time would trend Democratic in future elections. This does not include other states that are certain to go Democratic in 2012, including California, New York and Illinois.

If Mitt Romney won John McCain’s percentage of Hispanic-Latino votes, he would still lose the popular vote by 54-46, and if he won the 44 percent that George W. Bush won in 2004, he would still lose by 53-47 under typical simulations.

When Mitt Romney said last weekend that if he does not improve his percentage of Hispanic-Latino support, he is finished, he was absolutely correct!

But it is also the Independent and women’s vote that is crucial, plus the issue whether Evangelical Christians, who think of the Mormon Church as a cult, will be willing to come out and vote for Romney, when he is so much a chameleon, hard to believe what he says, whether he has any principles , and whether he can be trusted to keep his present right wing views.

If Romney attempts to modify his right wing views on immigration, he would be likely to lose those conservatives who are unhappy with him, while not winning anywhere near the percentage of votes of John McCain or George W. Bush!

So Mitt Romney is in an impossible position electorally in 2012!

Yom HaShoah, Holocaust Remembrance Day: A Reminder Of The Threat Which Remains

Ronald Leave a comment

Yom HaShoah, Holocaust Remembrance Day, marking the commemoration of the six million Jews killed by the Nazis in World War II, is a somber day annually.

President Barack Obama marked the occasion this morning by calling for greater efforts against Holocaust denial and anti Semitism, and vigilance against current and future atrocities.

There was also commemoration at the Pentagon and at the US Capitol, and the President will visit the US Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington DC on Monday with Holocaust survivors.

It is not just Iran that is seen as a threat against the Jewish people. Worldwide, and in the United States, there are groups that celebrate Adolf Hitler’s birthday, which ironically is today, There are also right wing militia groups which promote hate and prejudice against Jews, as well as other minorities, including African Americans, Hispanics and Latinos, Asian Americans, and Native Americans.

Particularly in Florida, the location of the third largest group of Jews and Holocaust survivors after New York and California, Anti Semitism is a major problem that is of concern every day.

But the commemoration reminds us of what happened 70 years ago, and it must not be allowed to be forgotten when the last Holocaust survivors pass away in the next ten to twenty years!

What Is Wrong With Mitt Romney? The Bethel Bakery And Liberty University Commencement Speech Controversies

Ronald 3 Comments

What is it about Mitt Romney?

Romney has absolutely no sense of propriety, of what is right to do for his own candidacy!

Romney was in the Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania area the other day, trying to relate to “ordinary people” at a gathering, sitting down at a table to have a snack of cookies, provided by a local bakery of reputation, the Bethel Bakery.

So what does he do? He questions whether the cookies are really made by a local bakery, thinking they are from the local 7 11, and thereby insulting the owner of Bethel Bakery, and making the incident yet another embarrassment, and slip up on the part of Romney, who has had so many, it is easy now to lose count! A basic rule of civility is to NEVER criticize food provided by a host!

Heads have to be shaking and eyes rolling over Romney’s ability to self destruct. YES, we are all human and make mistakes, but if Romney can make this many on silly, stupid things, imagine him making decisions on important matters!

Then, to top it off, it was announced that Romney will give the commencement address to the graduating class at Liberty University in Virginia, operated by the son and heir of the dead Christian TV evangelist, Jerry Falwell, the founder of the Moral Majority and Christian Coalition.

Liberty University, now run by Jerry Falwell, Jr, is infamous for condemning homosexuality, and banning any known gay students or faculty. It is also where Governor Bob McDonnell of Virginia wrote a masters thesis, condemning “cohabitors, homosexuals, and fornicators”, and also attacked feminists, working women, and contraception by unmarried couples. He also condemned unwed mothers, no fault divorce, the New Deal, the Great Society, and he called for punishment for pornography, homosexuality and drug abuse by the state! This is the man who is Governor of Virginia, and a front runner for Vice Presidential nominee with Mitt Romney!

This is the university that Mitt Romney has agreed to speak before its graduating class! The question is WHY, as this only contributes to putting Romney “in bed” with the extreme right wing Christian conservative fanatics who promote hate and prejudice! Is this the way that Romney wishes to look to the average independent voter, to the average woman, to the average Hispanic or Latino, and YES, to gay men and women, a substantial number who are registered Republican? Is this his way to overcome his Mormon faith, which many right wing conservatives think of as a cult?

What is wrong with Mitt Romney’s head, his thinking pattern, his wife even (who could convince him of the stupidity of doing a commencement speech for the Jerry Falwell school)?

This is why Mitt Romney is going to be a total disaster for the Republican Party in 2012. He makes one long for John McCain in 2008, Bob Dole in 1996, and get this, even George W. Bush in 2000, with his vision of a “Compassionate Conservatism”, before the disaster of the Bush Presidency had a chance to emerge over the next eight years!

Modesty And Humility: Not Traits Of Mitt Romney, As Compared To Wealthy Presidents!

Ronald 3 Comments

Mitt Romney was born with a “silver spoon” in his mouth to a father who was a success story in the auto industry.

Mitt Romney had the opportunity to attend Harvard for a law degree and a business degree.

Mitt Romney was able to use personal contacts, through his wealthy family, to multiply the wealth of the Romney family.

Mitt Romney grew up with an attitude of entitlement, that he was ordained to lead because of his family connections and business contacts.

Mitt Romney is not the first modern President to have similar advantages.

Theodore Roosevelt had these advantages. So did Franklin D. Roosevelt,. John F. Kennedy, George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush.

But none of the above wore their wealth quite like Mitt Romney!

All of them engaged in politics more than Mitt Romney, who took the route of the least government service and experience, a minimum four years as Massachusetts Governor.

All of the other wealthy Presidents at birth had their own character flaws and shortcomings as we all do.

But none of them were cocky and arrogant, at least in public, quite like Mitt Romney is!

And none of their wives quite acted as Ann Romney is displaying, also an attitude of entitlement and arrogance!

It is one thing to be wealthy. It is another thing to boast about it, to emphasize it, to be cocky and arrogant, and act as if one is entitled!

What Mitt Romney and Anne Romney lack is a sense of modesty and humility!

The other Presidents tried very hard to make the American people forget their personal wealth and status, although, of course, it was there for all to see!

But Mitt and Anne Romney exude wealth, and make it out to be a virtue they wish to publicize.

And no one really likes a wealthy person who acts this way. It is not a nice character trait to brag or to boast.

Rather, it is nice when one goes out of his or her way to divert attention to one’s wealth, and to show concern for average Americans who are not so fortunate.

So Theodore Roosevelt showed concern with labor rights.

So Franklin D. Roosevelt showed concern about the poor during the Great Depression.

So John F. Kennedy planned a War on Poverty, and concern about racial discrimination.

So George H. W. Bush showed concern about the problems of the disabled and handicapped.

So George W. Bush showed concern about health care prescription costs for senior citizens.

How has Mitt Romney displayed concern for those less fortunate than himself?

The answer is that he has NOT displayed concern for anyone less fortunate, wanting to see the auto industry collapse, as just the tip of the iceberg as to his lack of care about how ordinary people are affected in their daily lives. He has displayed lack of concern about labor rights, the plight of the poor, discrimination against Hispanics and Latinos, and the cutting of Medicaid for the disabled and elderly.

This man has no “heart”, and while one who is cynical might argue that the other wealthy Presidents were just putting on a facade of concern, the old saying goes: Action speaks louder than words!

Arizona Ripe For Pickup By Barack Obama In Presidential Campaign Of 2012

Ronald Leave a comment

Arizona, the center of anti immigrant legislation, and arguably the ‘looniest” state in America, at least according to Bill Maher, is ripe for pickup by the Democratic Party and Barack Obama in the Presidential campaign of 2012.

Yes, it is true that the legislature is overwhelmingly Republican, and that both Senators (John McCain and Jon Kyl) are Republicans, and that the majority of the House delegation is Republican, and that Governor Jan Brewer is Republican, but yet with the growing Hispanic and Latino population, now about 30 percent, it looks as if Arizona is, over time, going to go the way of California, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado and vote Democratic.

Even Texas in the future, certainly by 2020, is likely to tip Democratic as long as the GOP continues its nativist mentality toward immigrants.

No one is saying that Obama will win Arizona, but there is a good chance that he could, and even if he does not, Arizona is likely to be a closer race than it was in 2008, when an Arizona Senator named John McCain won his home state, but not by as much as one would have thought (about 8.5 percentage points of the vote and 196,000 popular votes).

Latest Estimate On Presidential Election Results: Obama An Easy Winner Of Second Term!

Ronald 3 Comments

We are now a little more than six and a half months until the Presidential Election of 2012.

The latest estimates on the Electoral College, which will decide who takes the Oath of Office as President of the United States on Sunday, January 20, 2013, make it clear that President Obama has a clear edge to be re-elected.

According to the Associated Press, the Democrats have solid leads in 14 states and the District of Columbia, leading in five New England states, four Mid Atlantic states and the District of Columbia, plus Illinois, and the three Pacific Coast states and Hawaii, for a total of 186 electoral votes.

Obama also leads in four “swing states” in the crucial area of the Midwest (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota), along with Pennsylvania, with a total of 56 electoral votes.

So when you add these 18 states and the District of Columbia, it adds up to 242 electoral votes, only 28 short of the number needed to win the election.

So to believe that Obama will not gain 28 electoral votes as a minimum out of a grand total of 296 remaining electoral votes requires true delusion by those who predict a Mitt Romney and Republican victory!

Nine states are said to be “Up For Grabs”, all “swing states”, including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, for a grand total of 105 electoral votes

So if Obama wins Florida, he has won the election. If he wins Virginia and North Carolina, he has won the election. If he wins Ohio and Colorado, he needs only ONE more vote to be elected, which could come about from New Hampshire’s 4, New Mexico’s 5, Nevada’s 6, or Iowa’s 6.

Obama will probably not win all of the “swing states”, but to imagine he will lose all of them, or enough of them to lose the election, is a figment of a person’s imagination!

Were Obama to win all nine of these states making for a total of 27 states plus the District of Columbia, he would have 347 electoral votes.

Three states lean Republican, but could go to Obama theoretically if everything worked out in an ideal fashion–Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri. Indiana went to Obama in 2008, while Missouri went to John McCain by fewer than 5,000 votes. Arizona could go to Obama because of the rapidly rising Hispanic-Latino vote in a state which has promoted discriminatory laws against them. These three states have 32 electoral votes among them. Were everything to break right, it would allow Obama a grand total of 379 electoral votes and 30 states and the District of Columbia.

The other twenty states are solidly Republican, but with the possible exception of Georgia, with its growing number of Hispanics and Latinos Were the unbelievable but possible win by Obama in Georgia, it would mean 16 more electoral votes and a final grand total of 395 electoral votes in 31 states and the District of Columbia!

One might ask why Obama could end up with fewer electoral votes than 2008, if winning all of the states he won then. The answer is that states that are anti Obama have more electoral votes than they did, under reapportionment that goes into effect once a decade. These states include South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona and Utah.

Meanwhile, states which went for Obama in 2008 lost seats–New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Iowa.

Three states that went for Obama in 2008 gained seats–Florida, Nevada and Washington, while two states which went for McCain in 2008 lost seats–Louisiana and Missouri.

So this is the state of affairs regarding the Presidential Election of 2012 with a little over 200 days left in the Presidential campaign!

Lack Of Enthusiasm For Mitt Romney Within Republican Party: Danger Sign For November!

Ronald Leave a comment

Mitt Romney is the least popular GOP Presidential candidate in modern history, ten points lower than John McCain was in 2008.

He is losing among women, Independents, Hispanics and Latinos, based on many public opinion polls.

He has a lack of enthusiasm among religious voters, Southern whites, Midwesterners, conservatives, and even young voters

His major support are those over $100,000 income, corporate interests, and people of his own Mormon faith in states such as Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, and Arizona.

Romney simply has no natural constituency, and as things stand now, he could very well lose by a massive landslide, with Barack Obama winning close to his electoral vote total of 365 in 2008, and possibly winning more electoral votes!

Mitt Romney has become, at least at this point, a totally uninspiring candidate, and the odds of his recovery to the point of winning the Presidency seem extremely remote!

While Gone In DC, The Republican Presidential Race Ended!

Ronald 4 Comments

While the author was gone on vacation in Washington, DC, the Republican race finally came to an end.

Now, some of you might say that Ron Paul is still in the race, but let’s be serious: Mitt Romney is the GOP Presidential nominee, with both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum having stopped campaigning.

This does not mean that Mitt Romney has an easy road to the nomination, as he still needs several hundred delegates, and has not received the endorsement of either Gingrich or Santorum.

Newt Gingrich left the race primarily for economic issues, and Rick Santorum left due to the illness of his youngest daughter, Bella, and his realization that he might very well lose the Pennsylvania Primary two weeks from now.

By both leaving the race, they remain eligible for consideration in 2016, if Romney does not win the White House, even though one would have to say that for either to believe in their hearts that they have a real chance to be President in the future is purely delusional!

But Mitt Romney now has to face the reality, that in seeking the GOP nomination and selling his soul to the right wing of his party, he has lost credibility completely among middle of the road Americans, and yet is not trusted by the right wing or the evangelical Christians who look on his Mormon faith as a cult.

So Romney cannot be sure that evangelicals and conservatives will actually vote for him in November, and therefore, could lose some of the South and Midwest.

But he also trails terribly behind Barack Obama with women, Hispanics and Latinos, and Independents, and it will be hard to recoup.

And in polls, Romney is not well liked or trusted, and comes across as distant, aloof, and not able to relate to us.

And with Tax Day coming at the end of this week, the Democrats will do their best to remind us that Romney has not released his tax returns, except for the year 2010, while providing John McCain with 23 years of returns when he was considered a possible running mate by McCain in 2008. Why not release all of these tax returns?

The answer is that it is clear that Romney has something to hide, including the reports that he has loads of his $250 million fortune in the Cayman Islands and in Swiss banks!

That makes Romney look very unpatriotic, and unwilling to do his fair share to help the nation, seeing paying higher taxes due to his good fortune, as something that a rich person should feel for the blessing that he was able to accomplish his wealth, and owes it to the country to help its future, rather than just go by the legal limitation of the minimum he needs to pay, due to accounting tricks!

Romney is now said to be “mischievous and naughty” by his wife Anne, often acting like one of their sons, but that does not ring true, and even if so, it does not make up for his unwillingness to understand the plight of the average American, and his stiffness and aloofness and reserve around people he cannot easily relate to.

Americans like to feel that they like their President, and Romney is, unfortunately, simply not a warm and pleasant personality.

That, above all, is his ultimate doom, as it was for Thomas E. Dewey in 1948, who Romney looks more like by the day–an intelligent, qualified person who simply could not relate to the American people he wished to govern.

And get this: both Dewey and Romney grew up in Michigan! Dewey’s campaign against Harry Truman in 1948 went from a landslide lead to a total collapse, against a President who gave the Republican Party “hell”. In the case of Romney, he is way behind with little prospect of recovery, but also running against an incumbent President who is copying the Truman method of giving the Republicans “hell”!

Mitt Romney’s Endorsement By Jeb Bush And What It May Mean

Ronald Leave a comment

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has had a good 24 hour cycle, with the major win in Illinois, support from a wide band of voting groups, and the endorsement by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

Bush is one of the heavyweights in the GOP, and his endorsement, held off to now, is a prized one.

It would seem that former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, ending up 12 points behind, will have less opportunity to move ahead, although he might win Louisiana this weekend. But he would have to win WIsconsin on April 3, and his home state of Pennsylvania on April 24, to remain alive, and nothing in this regard is certain.

Meanwhile, with Newt Gingrich ending up last, behind Ron Paul, in Illinois, it would seem that it is time for the former House Speaker to leave the race, but his ego, and the fact money is still rolling in, means he will wish the publicity to continue running, even though he has only won South Carolina and Georgia.

Ron Paul has won nowhere except the US VIrgin Islands, but he is not about to withdraw either.

The goal of the three stragglers is to prevent 1,144 delegate votes for Mitt Romney on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Tampa in August, and the promotion of the first contested convention since Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford fought it out on the convention floor in 1976.

Bush’s backing of Romney is certainly a sign that the “Establishment” Republicans want unity, seeing it as essential now to organize against President Barack Obama.

And there is now speculation that Jeb Bush might accept the Vice Presidential nomination with Romney, but that seems highly unlikely. Bush certainly would help with Hispanic and Latino voters, and mainline conservatives, but Bush does not seem like the type to be number two on anyone’s ticket.

Are Virginia, North Carolina And Colorado The Ultimate Deciders Of The Presidential Election Of 2012?

Ronald Leave a comment

A new study comes up with the conclusion that the ultimate swing states for the Presidential Election Of 2012 are Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado.

These states have in common the following: growing numbers of well educated, high income voters with technology expertise in significant technology hubs; plus large increases in Hispanic and Latino population; and large components of women who are also more educated and professional and will not tolerate the attack on women that the Republican Party is engaged in nationally, in many states, and on conservative talk radio.

These states all voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but switched to Barack Obama in 2008, and the trend toward the Democrats, including also Independent voters, seems hard to reverse by the Republican Party and its candidate for President, whoever that will be!