Iowa

The Die Is Cast: The Midwest And The Presidential Election Of 2012

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With the struggle going on over public service workers in Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, as well as other states, it is clear that the future of organized labor is at stake, but also the future of the Democratic Party and President Barack Obama.

With the reality that organized labor is a large part of the base of the Democratic Party, it is clear that the battleground for victory for the party and its President will be the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa–the heartland of the country.

Also realize that the Republican Party had its birth in the Midwest, and that Barack Obama won all seven states, and nearly won next door Missouri.

To win in 2012, Obama MUST win most, if not all, of these Midwestern states, hit hard by the Great Recession and now led by Republican Governors determined to strike vengeance against the base of the opposition party, organized labor.

And with growing interest in former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, as the one GOP candidate for President who has few negatives, other than not being well known, it could be that President Obama will face a strong conservative opponent in Pawlenty.

Barack Obama’s And Sarah Palin’s Effect On The Republican Presidential Race

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Here it is mid February, less than a year to the Iowa caucuses, and not one Republican has announced for President.

Instead, Indiana Congressman Mike Pence has announced that he will NOT run, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has indicated that while he will not run in 2012, he is leaving the door open for 2016.

Why is no one announcing?

Well, it may be that many potential candidates see a race against President Obama as a difficult one, which indeed it will be. While the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives in 2010, that is no indication that they have an edge in the Presidential race, and the fact that they control the House makes the President able to use them as a foil, and Obama is certain, eventually, to attack the Republicans on domestic policy, and to use foreign policy as a bulwark for his campaign for re-election. It should not be surprising that Jeb Bush prefers to wait to 2016 when there would be an open race without an incumbent, if one assumes Obama has the edge for 2012.

Remember that Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower and Bill Clinton won re-election despite BOTH houses being in the hands of the opposition party in the midterm election!

But also, the uncertainty about Sarah Palin, whether she will run, also muddies up the race.

Palin is looking weak in the polls, and it is hard to imagine she will give up the money making opportunities she now has to run, with the knowledge her earnings would be badly hit while she is a candidate for the White House. But she has just hired a top campaign strategist, and feels a need to react to every slight or criticism of her, including recent ones by fellow Republicans Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and John Thune. Since they are not leading candidates at this point, they have decided to gamble on light criticism or teasing of Palin, but others seen as more serious candidates, including Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, have, so far, avoided such criticism.

But Palin is the so called “800 pound elephant” in the room, and that, along with Obama’s growing strength and the feeling that he has an edge for re-election, is contributing to the fact that candidates so far are reluctant to stick their necks out and announce they are running.

Still, within the next three months, it will be necessary for candidates to announce themselves, in order to have a realistic chance to gain support and financial backing, so whether Obama looks as strong as he does now, or Palin stays out or comes into the race, the die is cast in the sense that announcement of candidacies can only be delayed so far without being seen as no longer serious contenders!

The Ultimate Battleground For The 2012 Presidential Election: The Midwest!

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As a result of the Midterm Elections of 2010, it is becoming clear that the 2012 Presidential Election will be ultimately decided in the Midwest, an area of the country suffering more heavily from the Great Recession, and also an area that is losing a significant number of seats in the House of Representatives reapportionment that will take place, as a result of the Census of 2010!

Even though the Midwest is losing electoral votes because of a smaller relative population as compared to the growing Sun Belt, it still contains states that are among the top ten states in population plus others that are in the next ten states in population!

It is also an area that can presently be described as “purple”, rather than “blue” or “red”, but has moved in the direction of the Republican party in the midterm elections due to the economic hard times and the tendency to blame the party in the White House for the poor economic conditions!

With all of the key Midwestern states electing Republican governors except for Illinois, and many state legislatures and House seats going over to the GOP, it poses a massive problem for the Democrats and President Barack Obama as they look at the electoral scene for 2012!

However, two of those states historically are particularly crucial in a Presidential election–Ohio and Missouri!

Ohio has been the decisive state for the Republican Party, as every Republican President since the first one, Abraham Lincoln, to the last one, George W. Bush, has won Ohio! At the same time, it means that if Ohio goes to the Democrats, as say Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008, the chances of Gerald Ford and John McCain were therefore dashed!

Missouri, if anything, has been the true bellwether state, as every single time since 1900, except 1956 and 2008, the winner of Missouri has become President! And even Dwight D. Eisenhower came close to defeating Adlai Stevenson in Missouri in 1956, and Barack Obama came extremely close to defeating John McCain in Missouri in 2008!

Since the Atlantic Coast of the nation–New England and the Middle Atlantic–is seen as solidly Democratic except maybe for New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and the Pacific Coast also seen as solidly Democratic, while most of the South, maybe all of it including Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, are seen as solidly Republican next time, and much of the Mountain West and Great Plains also solidly “red”, it will be the Midwest which will decide the electoral winner again next time!

So the Democrats and Barack Obama will have to make inordinate efforts to appeal for support in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and cannot afford to lose much of this area if the party and Obama are to win in 2012!

That is one of the reasons why the Democratic Party is planning its national convention in the Midwest in 2012, with St. Louis, Cleveland, and Minneapolis as the key competitors for that honor!

So despite declining population percentages, the heartland of the nation again will be the central focus in the upcoming national elections in 2012!

The Iowa Presidential Caucus Of 2012: A Battle Between Mike Huckabee And Sarah Palin?

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Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is seen by many observers as having an edge to win the Iowa Presidential caucus if she decides to enter the Presidential race.

With her strong support among evangelical Christians and conservative Tea Party activists, it is feared among mainstream Republicans that she would get an early boost in financial support and media exposure if she was to win the first test of voters in that crucial midwestern state.

But if one thinks back to the 2008 Iowa caucus results, the realization is that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, himself an ordained Baptist minister, won that contest over John McCain and Mitt Romney, even though he floundered after that victory.

So if both of these former Governors and Fox News Channel employees decide to compete in this contest, along with many others, it is far from certain that Palin would indeed have an edge to win Iowa!

This far ahead, there is no way to forecast how the caucus would turn out, and remember, it is NOT a guarantee that winning the Iowa Presidential caucus would be the first step toward the nomination of the Republican Party for the Presidency of the United States! It could just be gaining headlines and attention that disappears once the New Hampshire primary takes place!