Iowa Caucuses

Rick Santorum The Winner In CNN South Carolina Republican Debate

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has had a good day, as he was declared the winner of the Iowa Caucuses this morning, belatedly, by 34 votes over Mitt Romney.

And tonight, Rick Santorum put both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich on the defensive, with strong assaults on their backgrounds, records in office, and suitability to compete with Barack Obama in the fall, during the CNN South Carolina Presidential Debate.

Having been ignored much of the time in earlier debates, Santorum really shone in a way that makes trying to predict the order of finish in the South Carolina Primary this Saturday impossible to predict.

But Santorum, for all of his faults and shortcomings, impressed tonight, in the sense of taking his opponents on in an aggressive manner!

The Romney Vulnerability Factor In Play As South Carolina Primary Is Near

Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts Governor, and supposed front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination, has has a rough week.

First, he performed poorly in the Monday night South Carolina debate sponsored by Fox News Channel, being constantly on the defensive due to attacks by his rivals for the nomination.

As news came out all week about Bain Capital, and the fact that Romney, while refusing to release his tax returns anytime soon, admitted that he only paid 15 percent on his investment income, and “only” earned $364,000 in speaking fees, his polls started to suffer.

Now, today, Rick Perry has dropped out of the Presidential race and endorsed Newt Gingrich. And Rick Santorum has been declared the winner of the Iowa Caucuses by 34 votes, after trailing by 8 votes to Romney.

With Gingrich gaining support in the public opinion polls in South Carolina because of his strong debate performance, and now with Perry’s endorsement of Gingrich, it is more likely that the former Speaker of the House could defeat Romney in South Carolina.

Since 1980, every Republican winner of South Carolina’s primary has gone on to be the GOP Presidential nominee. So if Romney loses, after being declared the loser in Iowa, and only winning what is basically his “home” state, New Hampshire, suddenly Mitt Romney will be extremely shaky and vulnerable in his quest for the Republican Presidential nomination.

The Ultimate Judgment Day For Evangelical Christians: Romney, Santorum Or Gingrich?

So it has come down to this: the ultimate judgment day for evangelical Christians, specifically in South Carolina this Saturday, but really nationally, as well.

Evangelicals always talk about the significance of “family values” in their lives, and that is to be applauded.

So now they must decide the future of the Republican Presidential race. They may talk about “redemption”, but can they really back Newt Gingrich after it has been revealed that he asked his second wife to agree to an “open marriage”, after having cheated with her on his first wife? Gingrich talks about “traditional marriage” being upheld against gay marriage, but is his concept of marriage indeed “traditional”?

It seems to the author that the family lives of Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum fit the image of what evangelical Christians claim to believe, and already, a large group of evangelical leaders last week endorsed Santorum. To top it off, Santorum ended up ahead of Gingrich in New Hampshire, and now has been declared the winner of the Iowa Caucuses over Mitt Romney by a final count of 34 votes, rather than being 8 votes behind.

It will be interesting to see whether evangelical Christians will follow the endorsement of their leaders and support Santorum, or even go beyond their faith and back Romney.

If they back Gingrich, however, it will show their hypocrisy. Opportunism is what it might be called after Saturday.

Mitt Romney’s Running Mate: Who Could End Up As Vice President Next Year?

It may seem premature to ponder who could be Mitt Romney’s running mate for Vice President, after only two contests, the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary, but speculation is already beginning.

It is not an unimportant issue, as one must remember that a Vice President is one heartbeat away from the Presidency, and we have had nine Vice Presidents succeed to the office of President, mostly recently Gerald Ford, after Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974.

We have now had a longer period of no Vice Presidential succession than ever since the first time the Vice President (John Tyler) replaced a President who had died after one month in office in 1841 (William Henry Harrison).

We have had Vice Presidential choices that have been nightmares, such as Sarah Palin in 2008, Dan Quayle in 1988 and Spiro Agnew in 1968, with the latter two making even opponents of George H. W. Bush and Richard Nixon wish for their continued good health!

Many individuals are being speculated about who would not be good choices in one way or another.

Among these are:

Florida Senator Marco Rubio
South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

All of the above are highly controversial in different ways, and would not draw moderates or independents, crucial in an election more than a nomination battle. And all, except Santorum, have been in high office too briefly, so the lack of experience would be harmful, as each has only finished one year in his or her position in government on a national level, with the exception of Christie with two years in office. Santorum lost reelection by a wider margin than just about any incumbent senator in history, when he lost his seat in 2006.

So, a better list would be the following, all adding to Romney, rather than subtracting:

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell
Tennessee Senator Bob Corker
Ohio Senator Rob Portman
Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
Missouri Senator Roy Blunt
South Dakota Senator John Thune
Illinois Senator Mark Kirk

All of these nine, four governors and five senators, have had experience and come across as less controversial, and all would be qualified to take over in an emergency, if that were to happen.

Of course, all would have to be vetted, but on first look, they all seem to be capable of serving as President if need be, and far better than Palin, Quayle or Agnew!

Two New Hampshire Republican Debates In 13 Hours!

With the Iowa Caucuses results starting to sink in, and with the New Hampshire Primary now about two and a half days away, the six remaining GOP candidates for President square off tonight at 9 pm EST, televised on ABC, and at 9 AM EST tomorrow morning on NBC and MSNBC as part of MEET THE PRESS.

To have two debates over a period of 13 hours is in itself amazing, and a real test of ability to hold one’s composure, answer in an appropriate way without obvious mistakes, and make an impression on New Hampshire and national voters.

Mitt Romney is heavily favored, but needs to keep his wide lead over the field, or else it will be considered a defeat by many media sources. He also needs to keep his calm demeanor, and not overreact temperamentally to any attacks by his opponents, of which there are likely to be many, particularly by Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, his closest challengers in the long run.

Newt Gingrich needs to demonstrate that he can be strong, assertive, but not obnoxious or condescending against his opponents, never easy for him, and to stop being a “cry baby” about strong attacks by his opponents, since he was the master of such tactics in his years in the House of Representatives.

Rick Santorum needs to show that he is concerned about other issues than social conservatism, and that he has the ability to draw independent support, which seems unlikely.

Ron Paul is Ron Paul, and is not going to worry about any impressions he makes, as he goes by a different drummer, as the saying goes.

Rick Perry needs to prove he has any legitimacy left, and not stumble as he has so often done in earlier debates, and convince people that he is the better choice for social conservatives, than Gingrich or Santorum, not a likely scenario.

Finally, Jon Huntsman needs to win New Hampshire, or end up a competitive second, as he has built his campaign so much on New Hampshire, ignoring Iowa altogether. If he wins or end up a close second, he can move on to Florida and other states. Otherwise, he is done for 2012!

So that is the summary of what must be accomplished or perceived about each of the six finalists for the nomination, and there will be lots of analysis after the joint debates, with the primary just two days away by their end!

The Multi Headed Monster: The Republican Party “Bloodshed” Ahead!

Now that the Iowa Caucuses are over, any semblance of peace and compromise in the battle for the Republican Presidential nomination is a distant dream.

With Rick Santorum ending up ONLY EIGHT votes behind Mitt Romney; Romney gaining SIX FEWER votes than in 2008; Newt Gingrich furious at his so called mistreatment by Romney related PACs bad mouthing him and his record; Rick Perry strangely deciding to reverse himself and fight on in South Carolina; Jon Huntsman ridiculing Iowa and continuing his quest to turn things in his favor in New Hampshire; and Ron Paul continuing his quixotic quest to turn America and the Republican Party against “big” government and “interventionist” foreign policy, we are far from any resolution of the struggle, and lots of “bloodshed” is ahead of us!

The “Establishment” Republicans and Wall Street Republicans want Mitt Romney.

The “Social Conservatives” can choose between Rick Santorum, likely to gain their mantle due to his success, but also Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich competing for their support.

The “Tea Party Movement” Republicans still believe in Ron Paul.

The more moderate and foreign policy oriented Republicans realize that Jon Huntsman is superior to all others in foreign affairs knowledge, but many want a more aggressive attitude on foreign policy, a la the “neoconservatives”, preferring the hard line of Santorum, Perry or Gingrich.

The Republican Party is a multi headed monster which is looking for its “soul”, but it may NOT have one!

The “Bible Belt”, Religion, And The Republican Presidential Race

After Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucuses by EIGHT votes over Rick Santorum, some saw it as a victory.

But others pointed out that Romney actually received SIX fewer total votes than he did in 2008 in the Iowa Caucuses!

And Romney did not do well among evangelical Christians, which are a very large portion of the Republican vote in Iowa. Considering also that he received just 25 percent of the vote, the same percentage as in 2008, brought to mind that his Mormon faith MAY have an effect in the Southern primaries and other Midwest primaries where evangelical Christians still look at Mormonism as a religious cult, in areas considered the “Bible Belt”!

So Mitt Romney is not seen as overcoming the religion question as John F. Kennedy did in 1960.

But the problem is that Jon Huntsman is also a Mormon, and Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are Catholic, the problem that existed for Kennedy. Only Rick Perry and Ron Paul are evangelical Christians or Baptists, which is predominant in the South.

The question is whether Rick Santorum, who shares the religious and family values of many Southerners, but is a Catholic, can win them over and have an impact in future primaries. He is already trying to appeal to blue collar whites who are often rural in environment and religious more than the rest of the country. Will Perry and Paul have a better shot, particularly in the South, and can Gingrich, who converted to Catholicism, overcome that fact?

The point is that religion COULD be a factor in the final decision as to who the GOP Presidential nominee will be!

Further Proof Of The Importance Of Every Single Vote: Eight Vote Win For Romney In Iowa

There are many Americans who think it is not important to vote, that no one person can have an impact or change a result of an election.

That falsehood was proved to be inaccurate again last night when Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucuses over Rick Santorum by the closest margin of any Republican Presidential nomination contest in its entire history–EIGHT VOTES statewide!

The win is better than a loss, of course, but realistically, Rick Santorum gained a lot more by losing by eight votes than Romney did by squeaking out such a tiny margin, and proving that he still has a problem with conservative and Tea Party Republicans, winning only one out of four votes in a state he has campaigned in since 2007, and doing no better in percentage than he did in the 2008 caucuses.

It looks more than ever that the battle is down to Romney vs the “Anti Romney”, who appears to be Santorum, plus the possibility of Jon Huntsman, but only if he is able to win New Hampshire or end up a very close second.

Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry are, thankfully, no longer factors in the race, even if they decide to remain in the competition.

Ron Paul will continue to compete, but will not be the nominee, and likely will not do as well as third place anywhere else but Iowa.

Newt Gingrich will do his usual “slash and burn” strategy against Romney, copying his entire career in the House of Representatives, but a poor fourth gives him almost no chance to move on into serious competition.

So we are down to three candidates in realistic terms, and possibly only two after New Hampshire next Tuesday!

The Demise Of Michele Bachmann And Rick Perry: Good Riddance!

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Texas Governor Rick Perry have effectively been eliminated from the Republican Presidential race by their poor sixth and fifth place finish in the Iowa Caucuses.

There should be no tears shed over this, as both candidates were absolutely horrible in their performance, and showed high levels of stupidity and dangerous views in their quest for the Presidency!

Never has anyone finishing lower than fourth in Iowa gone on to victory, and only John McCain in 2008 went from fourth to the nomination, but realistically, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich would have to rise magically to first in New Hampshire as McCain did in 2008, and that is NOT going to occur!

Ron Paul ended up, considering his young and naive supporters, a disappointing third, so the race should be seen as down to three candidates: Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, and IF he can produce a miracle in New Hampshire, Jon Huntsman, who did not compete in Iowa, but MUST win New Hampshire to have a chance to move on.

So the Iowa Caucuses have done what they are designed to do–winnow the field of candidates, which is now down to, at most, four or five candidates.

On 40th Anniversary Of Iowa Caucuses And 60th Anniversary Of New Hampshire Primary, A Proposal For Regional Presidential Primaries

Forty years ago, the Iowa Caucuses began, and sixty years ago, the New Hampshire Primary began, and they have become the center of attention in the battle every four years to nominate the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.

There has been much discontent with this system, whereby these two small rural states, unrepresentative of the nation, have a much greater impact on the nomination process than they should be allowed to have.

So the author proposes for the future a Regional Primary system, in which there would be five “Super Tuesdays” spread three weeks apart, starting the second Tuesday in January and ending at the beginning of April, with each four years in a twenty year cycle, a different regional primary going first, and all the regional primaries being rotated so that each primary will, over 20 years, go first, second, third, fourth and last in the voting process, in order to make the system fair and equitable.

Each regional primary would have at least one major state in electoral votes as part of the process, so as to make the impact of all the regional primaries be considered balanced and approximately of equal impact.

There would be a NORTHEASTERN primary–consisting of Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia–11 states and the nation’s capital–with a total of 112 electoral votes.

There would be a SOUTHERN primary, consisting of Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana–12 states– with 135 electoral votes.

There would be a MIDWEST primary, consisting of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma–13 states–with 125 electoral votes.

There would be a SOUTHWEST-MOUNTAIN STATES primary, consisting of Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho–9 states–and 85 electoral votes.

And finally, there would be a PACIFIC COAST primary, with Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska and Hawaii–5 states–with 81 electoral votes.

With the primaries being regional and rotating, all states over a twenty year period would have equal impact, and campaigning would be easier, as the mileage differences would be minor since all the states competing on the same day, and with three weeks between primary dates, would be convenient for campaign swings and travel.

This would be a much better system than the crazy, disjointed one we now have, and would get the American people much more motivated, involved, and likely to participate in the primaries!