George W. Bush

Suddenly, Joe Biden Makes It A Race With Hillary Clinton For 2016!

Here many thought that the Democratic Presidential race for 2016 was over, and that Hillary Clinton would saunter to the nomination without opposition.

True, that former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley were hinting that they might challenge Hillary, but the thought was it could just be an attempt to gain some publicity, and hope that Hillary would not run, giving them the edge simply on intention to run.

Well, forget about that, as Vice President Joe Biden has made it clear that he does not wish to be ignored or overlooked, and that IF he decides to run, it will not be affected by what Hillary does. After all, even good friends compete in life, right? Biden does not want to be seen, certainly at this point, as a “lame duck”, still wanting to be seen as significant and in the game for the next three years as Vice President and beyond.

When one thinks about it, since Richard Nixon, it has been assumed, and often the fact, that a sitting Vice President was seen as a likely successor to the President he served, at least for the nomination. Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, Gerald Ford, Walter Mondale, George H. W. Bush, and Al Gore all became Presidential nominees after serving under Dwight D. Eisenhower, Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton. Nixon and Bush became President, while Humphrey, Ford, Mondale and Gore failed to win the Presidential elections after they were nominated by their party. Only Dick Cheney never considered running for the Presidency, after being Vice President under George W. Bush. Even Spiro Agnew, before he was forced to resign due to scandal, was perceived as the likely successor nominee to Richard Nixon, and the same for Dan Quayle under George H. W. Bush, who tried and failed to win the Presidential nomination in 1996.

So the idea of Biden wanting to run is not at all out of the norm, and when one looks seriously at Joe Biden’s record in public life, all one say is WOW!

The reality is that NO Vice President has EVER had the wealth of experience in public office of Joe Biden!

BIden served 36 years in the Senate, and will have had 8 years in the Vice Presidency, for a total of 44 years in public service by 2016.

Biden is a well liked, admired, gregarious, public figure, even if one does not agree with his viewpoints and record.

It is well known that Biden can build bridges with the Republican opposition, and that Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell like him, work well with him, and that Joe Biden has helped to resolve differences on many issues for the Obama Administration. Biden has been a major player and influence over policy and strategy for President Obama, and has been a loyal soldier when his viewpoints have lost out in the cabinet and national security meetings.

Joe Biden has chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and his expertise in foreign policy, and his knowledge of, and relationships with foreign leaders make him invaluable in dealing with national security and defense issues. He was often thought of as a possible Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense in the past, due to his brilliance in these areas of such great importance to America’s future.

Joe Biden has also chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee, and his knowledge and understanding of constitutional matters and the Supreme Court, make him invaluable on legal controversies, including his advocacy of gay rights and gay marriage ahead of most politicians who have served in Congress or the executive branch.

Joe Biden is a leader, who if he were President, would be able to get things done much more easily, and is a “wheeler dealer” in the mode of Lyndon B. Johnson, but with a more kind and caring edge than the former President, who could be quite brusque and crude at times.

Hillary Clinton has great background and experience, but on pure years and accomplishments, she cannot match Joe Biden, and in fact, NO ONE in public life can do so!

The major shortcomings of Joe Biden are:

His age, which will be 74 and two months if he took the oath of office in 2017, making him the oldest first term President, and in theory, the oldest President altogether, if he had two terms, and left office at age 82 and two months.

His health, the question whether it would hold up, as he had serious health issues in 1987, due to an aneurysm, which required brain surgery, and his son, Beau Biden, the Delaware Attorney General, suffered a similar health crisis a few years ago, also recovering, but making it seem to be a genetic problem, which could arise, although health issues could also arise for Hillary Clinton, and really, for any Presidential candidate or winner of either party at any age!

His tendency to say embarrassing, or sometimes, purely stupid comments, although one could argue all of us do that, but when in high office. it can have reverberations, and there are critics who keep lists of “Bidenisms”, but they do NOT match the moronic nature of comments made by Sarah Palin or Michele Bachmann or Louie Gohmert in the present, or Dan Quayle in the past!

One thing is certain: If Joe Biden were to become President, we would have one of the most lively, colorful, dynamic Presidencies, with Biden being very warm, genuine, sincere, caring, and yet hard nosed enough to get things done and read the “riot act” on his own party members to get things done!

It would be nice to see such a Presidency, which would be inspiring in so many ways.

Having said all of the above, it is clear that if Hillary Clinton runs, she is likely to be the Democratic nominee.

If she chooses not to run, then Joe Biden is the odds on favorite for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

However, if Hillary does not run, or even if she does, it is likely that a “younger generation”, an idea advocated by this blogger in entries before now, are likely to enter the race and make it interesting, including the already named Schweitzer and O’Malley, and if Hillary bows out of the race, possibly Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, and Virginia Senator Mark Warner.

Other Than Hillary Clinton, What Woman Could Be A Viable Presidential Nominee In 2016?

Hillary Clinton is considered highly likely to be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2016, and most think she will, ultimately, decide to run, although there are those who have doubts.

But if Hillary chose not to run, is there any other woman who could be seen as a viable candidate for the White House in 2016?

On the Republican side, really no one is ready and able to mount a serious race, as members of the House of Representatives have never been the nominee of a major political party, other than President James A. Garfield in 1880, and he was, tragically, assassinated in 1881, after serving only a few months in the Presidency.

Yes, there are a few Republicans women governors, but to believe that South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley or New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez or Kansas Governor Mary Fallin can be considered serious Presidential candidates is to be delusional.

As far as women Senators in the Republican Party, there are the highly qualified Susan Collins of Maine, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, but neither seems interested or, really viable, as a Presidential nominee. New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte might be interested, but is not seen by many as a heavyweight in the party apparatus, but rather a person who hangs around Arizona Senator John McCain and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham more than is wise to do.

Of course, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is loved by the Tea Party Movement, but it is laughable to imagine her running, and she has absolutely no chance to win the nomination.

Condoleezza Rice is well qualified, but the former National Security Adviser and Secretary of State under George W. Bush, has always turned down any pressure to run for high office!

So, realistically, if there is to be a woman President, and other than Hillary Clinton, it will have to be a Democrat–and realistically it would be a Senator–one of three, including Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, or Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar.

Warren would be popular with the leftist base in the Democratic Party, but has been in the Senate only one year, and would be 67 in 2016, just two years younger than Hillary Clinton. She inspires many people, including this author, and would fight Wall Street, which few others would.

Gillibrand has been in the Senate since 2010, and is very active and inspiring, but she comes from a state where Hillary Clinton and Andrew Cuomo compete for support, and it is hard to imagine her at age 50 in 2016, being able to mount a campaign for President in 2016. She has made the fight against sexual abuse in the military a major issue, which has been under the radar for much too long.

So that leaves Klobuchar, who has served in the Senate since 2007, and is regarded very highly for her state government experience as Hennepin County (Minneapolis) Attorney for eight years, and can appeal to the heartland of the nation in a way that neither Warren nor Gillibrand could do. Her personality and communication ability is just as good, if not better, than Warren or Gillbrand, and at age 56 in 2016, she is closer to the ideal age to run for President. She is someone with a great progressive record, who has been too often overlooked by news media and others who follow politics.

But one thing is clear: No one is as qualified or outstanding among women politicians as Hillary Rodham Clinton! She has her faults and shortcomings, but no one matches her credentials!

Chris Hayes’ ALL IN Discussion Of Worst President Ever: Interesting And Food For Thought!

Chris Hayes on his ALL IN show on MSNBC last night had a fascinating, nearly 20 minute discussion, with three experts on who was the worst President in American history. Certainly, this was very appropriate for Presidents Day!

This author has written about this before, but the four choices discussed were:

Andrew Jackson
Andrew Johnson
Herbert Hoover
George W. Bush

Seeing Andrew Jackson on the list (actually the choice of Chris Hayes) startled me, as he tends to be listed at about Number 12 or 13 on most surveys, and used to be in the top ten near the bottom. But Hayes made a good case based on the Trail of Tears massacre of native Americans, along with forced removal to Oklahoma, and the destruction of the National Bank as good reasons for putting Jackson near the bottom.

This does not mean that this author agrees he is the worst President, but the arguments were food for thought, but consider that Jackson is on the $20 bill, so it is certainly a bit awkward to label him, possibly, the worst President.

The case for Andrew Johnson is much stronger, and he is usually put in the bottom few, which is where this author would put him, but I tend to see James Buchanan as the worst President.

Herbert Hoover is certainly a failure, the President of the Great Depression, but some sympathy for him in his plight does exist, including by this author.

Now George W. Bush labeled the worst, which is becoming a popular thought, seems somehow a bit unfair, but certainly he would rank in the bottom ten without any doubt.

And of course, besides Buchanan, who I have mentioned is generally seen as the worst President, let us not forget other competitors—Franklin Pierce, Warren G. Harding, Ulysses S. Grant, and to some, although not to this author, Richard Nixon!

Reassessing Presidents On Presidents Day

Here we are again, Presidents Day, and time for reflection on Presidential leadership, and there will be much disagreement, but it seems clear certain Presidents will move up in image, while others will move down in the ratings. Except for Abraham Lincoln and George Washington, all of the below are 20th century Presidents, undergoing the greatest change in ratings. In each category, listing is chronological.

Who remains high in ratings?

George Washington
Abraham Lincoln
Theodore Roosevelt
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Harry S Truman
Lyndon B. Johnson
Bill Clinton

Who is moving up in ratings, if one is honest?

William Howard Taft
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Jimmy Carter
Gerald Ford
George H. W. Bush

Who is moving down in ratings?

Woodrow Wilson
John F. Kennedy
Richard Nixon
Ronald Reagan
George W. Bush

Whose rating does not really matter, as insignificant, historically?

Warren G. Harding
Calvin Coolidge
Herbert Hoover

And finally, what about Barack Obama? What rating would this controversial occupant of the White House gain, in the mind of this blogger and author?

B to B PLUS—very solid in social policy, solid in foreign policy, more difficulty in economic policy! Of course, on economic policy, the Congressional Republicans have caused a lot of the problem!

Where should he be put in the ratings? With three years to go, Obama is certainly in the top 15 of 43 Presidents, and this author would put him closer to 12-13 in the ratings, but subject to change. And one must realize to ignore the Right Wing whackos, as their judgment will have no long range effect, any more than they had with FDR or Lincoln, both bitterly criticized in their tenure in office!

I welcome comment and debate on this listing!

Republican Party Historically On Corruption And Impeachment: It Speaks For Itself!

The Republican Party has a very interesting history when it comes to corruption on the national level, and to the issue of Presidential impeachment.

The “self righteous” party, which tries to convince us that they are “holier than thou”, when it comes to corruption and scandal, has been responsible for the four most corrupt Presidencies in American history, and arguably, the fifth most corrupt Presidency as well!

At the same time, it is the Republican Party, in the 19th, 20th, and now the 21st century, that has constantly pursued the idea of Presidential impeachment as a weapon against Presidents of the Democratic Party!

Witness the following:

The Presidency of Richard Nixon, along with that of Ulysses S. Grant, Warren G. Harding, and Ronald Reagan saw widespread corruption on a regular basis, and these are the four Presidents to have been in charge of the worst examples of corruption in American history, bar none!

Nixon is remembered for the Watergate scandal, but there is much more than that to be recognized as corruption.

Grant is remembered for the Credit Mobilier scandal, but there is much more than that to be recognized as corruption.

Harding is remembered for the Teapot Dome scandal, but there is much more than that to be recognized as corruption.

Reagan is remembered for the Iran-Contra scandal, but there is much more than that to be recognized as corruption.

And, by the way, George W. Bush is remembered for numerous scandals and malfeasance, much of it still hidden, but to be uncovered as time goes by, and once the junior Bush leaves us, when documents become much more available.

There is no one among Democrats who can match these five GOP Presidents in corruption, although many make out Bill Clinton and his personal demons as a scandal on the same level. But most of the so called other “scandals” under Clinton are conjured up, are manufactured, just as with Barack Obama and his so called, but not real “scandals” over Benghazi, the IRS, and other controversies which are not indeed “scandals”, but instead part of the plan to undermine him, as was done with Bill Clinton.

Sure, there were personal scandals under John F. Kennedy, and rumors of scandals under Lyndon B. Johnson, and minor scandals under Harry Truman, and accusations of scandals under Jimmy Carter, but none ever worked out to be on the level of scandals under Nixon, Grant, Harding, Reagan and the second Bush! And only Nixon was a justifiable case to bring impeachment charges, as he actually abused the Constitution and the Presidential office, and was, rightfully, in process of being removed from office, had he not resigned in 1974!

Meanwhile, the Republican Party historically has worked to promote impeachment of Democratic Presidents on a regular basis, and have brought unsubstantiated and unjustifiable charges against:

Andrew Johnson in 1868 over attempt to remove Secretary of War Edwin Stanton

Bill Clinton in 1998-1999 on his personal life scandals

Also, they have promoted impeachment threats or attempted moves to remove:

Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934-1935 over the New Deal
Harry Truman in 1951 over the firing of General Douglas MacArthur
Jimmy Carter in general, working to undermine everything he promoted

So the so called party of enforcing the law and the Constitution has been involved in a systematic attempt to promote the cause of big business corporations and personal power grabbing while moving to undermine most of our Democratic Presidents in the past century and a half!

Part of this is also the attempt, constantly, to besmirch the record in office of Woodrow Wilson, FDR, Truman, JFK, LBJ, Carter, Clinton and now Obama! Conspiracy theories have been rife in the Republican mind!

Realize that since Abraham Lincoln’s election, our first Republican President, there was constant deterioration after, until Theodore Roosevelt still upheld the good image of the GOP overall. But then there was rapid decline after, with a temporary revival under Dwight D. Eisenhower, and then constant decline after, with a smidgen of decency and class under Gerald Ford, and then much more rapid deterioration up to now. The GOP wishes to be regarded with respect, when it does not deserve it, based on the historical realities!

Also, realize that since 1861 to 2017, a total of 156 years, from Lincoln to Obama leaving office, we have had 18 GOP Presidents from Lincoln to Bush II and only 10 Democratic Presidents from Andrew Johnson to Obama. Republicans have held the White House for 88 years and Democrats for 68 years!

So the historical reality of the Republican Party being the party of corruption and lawlessness, and yet having the gall to threaten three Democratic Presidents with impeachment, two Democratic Presidents with actual impeachment, and on the road to impeaching Barack Obama on flimsy charges, speaks legions as to their lack of ethics and morality!

Speaker Boehner: Halt Threat Of Presidential Impeachment NOW!

Speaker John Boehner, we are well aware that you do not agree with the Tea Party whackos in your party, and that you wish to move immigration reform forward, and prevent future crises over raising the debt limit and shutting down the federal government!

We know that you have expressed, recently, your exasperation with these reckless, disobedient, anarchistic elements, but it is now time to put up or shut up, and that means halt IMMEDIATELY ANY talk of impeachment of President Barack Obama!

You know, Mr. Speaker, that Obama is a decent man, who you disagree with on policy, similar to what Senator John McCain said during his 2008 Presidential campaign. But McCain showed guts and courage when he contradicted a moronic woman at a campaign rally, who told him that Obama was a Muslim, not an American, and should not be respected.

It is now time for you to make clear that you will NOT allow any motion for impeachment to move forward, similar to what Speaker Nancy Pelosi made very clear when a small cabal of Democrats called for impeachment of President George W. Bush in 2007. She stated then, that while she disagreed on policy matters, there was no just cause for impeachment, and the idea was immediately dropped!

Speaker Boehner, you know in your heart of hearts, that Obama has done nothing illegal; has not committed high crimes and misdemeanors; and was voted into the Presidency twice by the voters by a clear margin. You should respect that reality, and take impeachment off the table, come hell or high water, in regards to retention of your own Speakership!

No move to impeach Obama will lead to his conviction in any case, so do not besmirch his reputation and his obituary, as sadly, Bill Clinton suffered unjustly in 1998-1999, only harming the Republican Party image and reputation!

And finally, realize that IF Obama, somehow, were to be removed, you and your party would be elevating Vice President Joe Biden into the White House, with less than two years left by the time of the impeachment trial, and that would give Biden the upper hand for the nomination and election in 2016 and 2020, creating the possibility of near to a ten year Biden Presidency, only surpassed by Franklin D. Roosevelt!

Do you really wish to do that, Mr. Speaker, as, after all, Joe Biden would promote the same agenda as Obama, and just might have the ability to get things done that could match Lyndon B. Johnson in domestic affairs?

So, Mr. Speaker, be a profile in courage, and nip the impeachment threat in the bud, as it benefits no one, including your party, and the nation at large!

Mitt Romney Comeback? Give Us All A Break!

The “Establishment” Republicans are running scared, trying to keep the Tea Party Movement from gaining complete control of the party, as it did in a different form when Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater took the nomination away from New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller and Pennsylvania Governor William Scranton precisely a half century ago, leading to a disastrous defeat of Goldwater by President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964!

Their hope had been New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who won a massive re-election victory last November, and who now sees his Presidential campaign, and even his Governorship, lying in tatters, with the question whether he will be forced to resign or face impeachment in the “Bridgegate” scandal and related scandals in a corruption ridden administration, nothing really new in the history of New Jersey!

A second thought has been that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, the son and brother of two Presidents named Bush, with the brother very unpopular after the disasters of his eight years in the White House, might be convinced to run. But Jeb’s mother, former First Lady Barbara Bush, has twice said there have been enough Bushes in the Presidency, and that she did not want her younger son to run. Still, Jeb has hinted he is thinking about it, but after a very long time out of public office, ten years, more than any President in the past except Abraham Lincoln, one has to wonder whether Jeb would have a realistic chance at the nomination, and to be elected by a public wary of the Bush Family heritage.

Of course, those who really want a very qualified “Establishment” Republican may want former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman as their choice, but Huntsman’s problem is that he is TOO qualified, TOO sane, too decent and mainstream, to be the GOP nominee, and he also worked for President Obama, which makes him “persona non grata” to most in the Republican Party.

So in desperation, some are starting to think of a “re-do” of the 2012 campaign, by bringing former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney into the fray once again, for the third time, but after having lost the election in 2012.

But there are many problems with this scenario:

Despite having run twice for the Presidency in 2008 when he failed to win the nomination, and 2012, when he did and lost, it is a fact that by 2016, Romney will have been out of public office for the same amount of time as Jeb Bush, ten years, and unlike Jeb, who had two terms as Governor, Romney only had one term of four years, making him the least experience in public office, compared to any actual Presidential nominee or President, other than Wendell Willkie and Woodrow Wilson.

Additionally, Romney would be nearly 70 at the time he took the Presidential oath in January 2017, only seven months older than Hillary Clinton, and four years and four months younger than Joe Biden, so this would be a truly “old folks home” race if Romney were the nominee.

Finally, Romney has proved to be a chameleon, supporting health care for Massachusetts, but then opposing a similar plan known as “ObamaCare”, and completely remaking himself to please the extreme right wing, but coming across as unprincipled, mercenary, and opportunistic, as well as being a massive liar, on a scale way beyond the norm of any Presidential campaign. He came across, also, as arrogant, insensitive, uncaring, phony, and will never be able to live down the “47 percent” comment, which will be part of the historical record for all eternity! How can Romney “remake” himself, and be taken seriously and seen as truthful, when he has proved to be totally unable to be believed and trusted?

So the best idea is to inform Mitt Romney to forget about it, be happy you are super wealthy, continue to amass that gigantic fortune that you wish to leave to your heirs, so that they do not have work and struggle like the rest of us “peons”, and be thankful you at least had the opportunity to run for the Presidency, which in itself is a special group that goes down in history! Be honest, making money as an obsession, is what you are best at, so go for it, and leave America alone!

The Basic Reality Of Leadership: Character And Public Presence Truly Matter!

As an observer of politicians for the past 50 years, this author is absolutely amazed at how many citizens fail to see that the key issue in supporting and voting for any politician is their character and their public presence.

If one comes across in his or her public role as prejudiced, biased, uncaring, lacking in compassion for those less fortunate through no fault of their own, lacking in empathy, overly aggressive, nasty, belligerent, bullyish, inability to smile, unconcerned about how he or she deals with the media and the citizens he represents, obviously only interested in his own aggrandizement, the question is WHY would anyone support such a person for any public office?

Millions upon millions have voted for and support politicians who fit this description, and this author knows some people who do this! It is absolutely mind boggling why they find such politicians appealing! And it makes me wonder, and has done so, whether knowing these people, and associating with them, really is in the best interests of my own conscience and basic principles!

So, for instance, how anyone could have liked and admired Richard Nixon is beyond this author’s understanding, as it was very clear to me as a young teenager and after, that Nixon was not a man to be trusted.

The same goes for such politicians as Senator Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin; Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina; Senator Jesse Helms of North Carolina; Vice President Spiro Agnew of Maryland; Vice President Dick Cheney of Wyoming; and innumerable other Senators, Congressmen, Governors, cabinet officers, Supreme Court Justices, and other public figures of the past half century, while this author has been aware of what goes on in American government!

This is not saying that because someone is charming and personable and pleasant in public, that he or she cannot be corrupt and despicable, as for instance, Senator John Edwards was, regarding his wife and his cheating on her. He is one of a long list of people who appear to be decent in public, of both political persuasions, who can surprise us with their lies and deception. All of us are able to be fooled by a slick politician, no question about that!

But when one sees people now, running for President or planning to, who are similar to the few cases listed above, one wonders why anyone would support such politicians as Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, as a few examples. And how could anyone, in recent times support former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, former Senator Rick Santorum, Texas Governor Rick Perry, businessman Herman Cain, and former Florida Congressman Allen West, among others, who have worked to poison our political system in an extremely detrimental manner?

The head of this author is shaking in disbelief as to the blindness of so many people, who fail to see that these and others are phones, charlatans, and everything else described above!

A final thought I wish to make is that there are politicians who I have not agreed with on issues, but still consider them decent people on the basis of the description I have given above, meaning they do not have the negative characteristics that I outlined earlier. A short list would include Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H W Bush, and George W. Bush, along with Senators Bob Dole of Kansas and John McCain of Arizona. So it is not an issue of agreement, per se, but how politicians come across in their character and public presence!

And a final “final” thought, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is getting his “just desserts”, as his obnoxious, bullying character is proving to be truth, as to his not having the opportunity to serve as our President, thank god!

Obama’s State Of The Union Speech: Cooperation Where Possible, But Executive Orders When Necessary!

President Barack Obama made another magnificent State of the Union speech last night, and made it clear that where cooperation is possible with the Republicans in Congress, he will encourage it, but he will NOT be powerless IF the GOP does not cooperate!

Instead, he will use executive orders where possible to take action on urgent matters, and he has every right to do so, as executive orders are used on a regular basis by ALL Presidents, with George W. Bush having used it 291 times, Bill Clinton 364 times, Ronald Reagan 381 times, and Jimmy Carter 320 times, as recent examples!

The idea that Speaker of the House John Boehner suggests possible impeachment because of use of executive orders is totally outrageous, another sign that the person two heartbeats away from the Presidency has no regard or respect for the President.

Even though Nancy Pelosi never cared for George W. Bush when she was Speaker, she always showed basic respect for him as the President, and dismissed ideas of impeachment charges against Bush, showing much more class than Boehner has done, and that does not reflect well on his character.

Obama will do what he must do, and to hell with the whacko Tea Party Movement and their anarchistic and racist sentiments!

Jeb Bush: Can He Do What Only Abraham Lincoln, Richard Nixon, And Ronald Reagan Did?

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, the son and brother of two Presidents, is again having his name bandied about for President of the United States, despite his mother, Barbara Bush, saying there have been enough Bushes in the White House, and that more than three or four families have talent for the Presidency. While saying that repeatedly, she always adds that her son is best qualified to be President, so it is an odd statement, to say the least!

But Speaker of the House John Boehner went out of his way to suggest Jeb Bush would be a great nominee, and certainly, the “Establishment” Republicans on Wall Street see him as more likely now than ever before, as their front line of defense against the Tea Party Movement and Ted Cruz et al, and the libertarians and Rand Paul.

Both Cruz and Paul, and really EVERY other suggested nominee, has all kinds of issues with their extreme right wing tilt. That is why New Jersey Governor Chris Christie seemed so appealing to many, after his wide victory for a second term. But now the scandals that have erupted have besmirched his reputation, and in any case, Christie would have had great trouble winning in Iowa, South Carolina, and other states as he is from the Northeast, and seen as too much like John McCain and Mitt Romney, failed GOP Presidential candidates, who are disliked by right wing talk show hosts, conservative think tanks, and the Tea Party right wingers.

So who is left for the “Establishment”? Really, only former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who also was Ambassador to China, under President Obama, an excellent, and really the best choice, but with not a chance in hell of being able to compete, because he is too “moderate” by comparison, too smart, too intelligent, too interested in science and world affairs, too independent minded, and even not allowing his Mormon faith to dictate public policy views!

Huntsman would have the best chance to win of any Republican, but the party has a death wish, and he will not be the nominee. More likely, it would be one of a large group of horrible candidates, including, not only Cruz and Paul, but also Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, and other “nightmarish” candidates!

So the only place to turn for the “Establishment” is to another Bush, who is comparatively a moderate conservative, who has not come across as a “whacko” in office and in his public statements. He has shown tolerance on immigration issues, as with his brother, President George W. Bush, and he seems to have a comparatively open mind.

But his challenge, beyond overcoming the Bush name, after the damage his brother did in eight years in the Presidency, is that Jeb Bush has been out of public office for ten years by 2016, after eight years served as Governor of Florida. While a few military people, including retired ones, have become President, only three non military people have become President with extended periods out of public office.

Abraham Lincoln had 12 years since his one term in the House of Representatives, until his Presidential triumph in 1860.

Richard Nixon had eight years since his defeat for the Presidency in 1960, until his victory in 1968.

Ronald Reagan had six years since his Governorship of California until his victory in 1980.

Note Nixon and Reagan had a shorter number of years, than Jeb Bush has, and Nixon ran for Governor of California in 1962, and Reagan competed for the Presidential nomination in 1976, both two years after they left public office.

And Lincoln, while twelve years since his last time in public office, ran for and lost the Senate race in Illinois against Senator Stephen Douglas in 1858, ten years after his one term in the House of Representatives, and just two years before he won the Presidency.

So Jeb Bush really has no exact comparison to Nixon and Reagan, and comes closest to Lincoln.

The ultimate question is whether Jeb Bush can copy Lincoln, or even Nixon or Reagan. The betting odds on his nomination are less than 50 percent for now, and far less in a race against any Democrat in 2016, particularly Hillary Clinton!