Elizabeth Warren

Twenty Women In The United States Senate In The 113th Congress: All Time High!

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The 113th Congress will have TWENTY women, the highest number in American history!

The 112th Congress had seventeen women, 12 Democrats and 5 Republicans.

The 113th Congress will have 16 Democrats and 4 Republicans, with Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, both Republicans, retiring!

Five new women will join the Senate—Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts,.Tammy Baldwin of WIsconsin, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, and Deb Fischer of Nebraska, with Fischer being the lone Republican. Fifteen women Senators will remain, including three Republicans—Susan Collins of Maine, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. The twelve returning Democratic women include: Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Barbara Mikulski of Maryland, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Diane Feinstein of California, Barbara Boxer of California, Parry Murray of Washington, and Maria Cantwell of Washington.

Also, three states have both Senators being women—New Hampshire, California, and Washington!

And to top it off, New Hampshire not only has two women Senators, but also both House members are women, and the new Governor is a woman, the first state to have an all female representation in Congress and the Governorship!

How far America has come as we enter the year 2013!

The 113th Congress Most Diverse Congress In History

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One of the greatest results of the Congressional Elections of 2012 is the tremendous diversity that will be present in the upcoming 113th Congress, which begins on January 3.

Just in the new membership, there will be:

4 African Americans
10 Latino Americans
5 Asian Americans
24 Women
2 Hindus
1 Buddhist
1 Non theist
4 openly gay
1 openly bisexual
1 gay of color
4 born in the 1980s

It will include such likely stars of the future as:

Joaquin Castro of San Antonio, whose brother, Julian Castro, is Mayor of that city
Joe Garcia, who is the first Cuban Democrat to represent Miami
Ted Cruz, second Cuban Republican Senator, from Texas
Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, first Hindu Congresswoman
Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, first Buddhist Senator
Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Iraq War hero and diabled from her service in the war
Lois Frankel of Florida, former Mayor of West Palm Beach
Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, professor and promoter of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, first openly gay Senator
Patrick Murphy of Florida, youngest member of the new House
Joseph Kennedy III, son of former Congressman Joseph Kennedy II, and grandson of Robert Kennedy

It will be a most interesting Congress coming up in 2013-2014!

The US Senate Changes At Accelerated Pace, But With Little Hope Of BiPartisanship!

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The US Senate, often called the greatest deliberative body in the world, is rapidly changing, as we will see at least 15 new members being sworn in on January 3 or shortly thereafter,

This is due to the retirement of eleven Senators; the primary defeat of one; the upcoming resignation of two; and the death of one.

Eleven of these 15 Senators will be Democrats, including Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Tim Kaine of Virginia, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Angus King of Maine, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and the appointed replacements for John Kerry in Massachusetts who is resigning to become Secretary of State, and for Daniel Inouye of Hawaii, who died in office a week ago.

Four new Senators will be Republicans, including Deb Fischer of Nebraska, Jeff Flake of Arizona, Ted Cruz of Texas, and Tim Scott of South Carolina, by appointment after the resignation of Jim DeMint to become the head of the Heritage Foundation.

At the same time, the longest serving Senators head the committees, and their average age is higher than it has ever been, and we now know, at the least, that the oldest Senator now, Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey, who will be 90 when he comes up for reelection in 2014, is not yet ready to say he will retire, even in the face of a potential challenge in the Democratic primary from Newark Mayor Cory Booker.

So the Senate, seen as a barrier to progress by many, is becoming more divided, by age, ideology, and party, making the likelihood of “crossing the aisle” far less likely in the near future! Bipartisanship is NOT thriving!

The Succession To John Kerry’s Senate Seat Becomes More Interesting!

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With Massachusetts Senator John Kerry about to be announced as Barack Obama’s new Secretary of State for his second term in office, attention is being paid more than ever to who will replace him.

Governor Deval Patrick will make a temporary appointment, but by late June or early July, there will be an election to finish out the term to the end of 2014.

Senator Scott Brown, soon to leave the Senate after losing to Elizabeth Warren, will certainly be the Republican nominee, but this time, unlike January 2010, when he won the Senate seat after the death of Ted Kennedy, it will be much more difficult for him to win in the very heavy “Blue” state of Massachusetts.

The rumors are flying that the widow of Ted Kennedy, Vickie Kennedy, who turned down the chance to run nearly three years ago, might now be interested. And also, Joseph Kennedy III, son of former Congressman Joseph Kennedy II, and now newly elected to Barney Frank’s House seat in Boston, could be a contender, even though only 32, but then Ted Kennedy was only 30 when he took the Senate seat in 1962. Any Kennedy running would be tough to beat.

But there are others also considered possible candidates, including Barney Frank himself, although retiring from the House of Representatives; Congressman Ed Markey, who has served in the House for 36 years; Congressman Michael Capuano; former Congressman Marty Meehan; and even Governor Deval Patrick himself!

One thing is certain: The replacement battle for John Kerry’s Senate seat will be fascinating and combative for sure, including a possible Democratic primary for the seat!

The State Of The Democratic Presidential Field As 2012 Ends

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This author has already, earlier today, made it clear that only four Republicans have any chance to be the Republican nominee in 2016, and, conceivably, to win the next Presidential election, although the odds against them are massive.

What about the Democratic field in a future election where the Democrats have a tremendous edge?

Realize that the likelihood of Barack Obama presiding over a greatly improved economy by 2016 will be a major boon to whoever is the party’s Presidential nominee.

So what is the state of the field?

There are three tiers of candidates, as things now stand.

First Tier—Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, both extremely qualified and experienced, and the best of friends, and if either or both become candidates, they will be the so called “800 pound gorillas” in the race, very hard to overcome. But, of course, if they challenge each other, they could weaken each other and help a third candidate to gain the edge, someone with less experience, and significantly younger, which might be an appealing factor.

Second Tier—Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, Virginia Senator Mark Warner, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren–with all four being strong alternatives, and with one of them possibly able to challenge the two leaders, Clinton and Biden, if they both choose to compete, If neither Clinton nor Biden ends up a candidate, which is conceivable, then these four could be involved in a major competition.

Third Tier—Mayor Cory Booker of Newark, if he becomes Governor or Senator from New Jersey; San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, if he becomes Governor or Senator from Texas; Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick; Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar; New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand; all potential candidates of minority or gender diversity, but all of them less likely to have the opportunity to run, based on others who are competing, and difficulty raising money and supporters against others who are much more described as “heavy weights”, but they all could be possible Vice Presidential running mates.

So this is an early judgment on the Presidential race, and needless to state, there will be much more analysis of these potential candidates as the Presidential race begins in earnest in the second half of 2013, after the first hundred days of the new term! There will be no lack of news emerging on a regular basis, and the fact that this author and others are discussing the race only 30 days after the last Presidential election demonstrates, yet again, that there is no respite from politics, or speculation about the Presidential office and its present and future occupants!

The John Kerry Problem For The Democrats

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The possibility of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry becoming Barack Obama’s Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense creates new problems for the Democrats in the US Senate.

The Democrats gained two seats in the recent elections, and would hate to lose one of those seats, which could happen if Kerry resigned from the Senate, and in theory, gave soon to be former Republican Senator Scott Brown a chance to vie for his seat in a special election, which is how he won the seat of Senator Ted Kennedy in 2010.

But the Democrats have two potential nominees to run against Brown, should Kerry go to the Presidential Cabinet.

One is Governor Deval Patrick, very popular in his second term, and someone who might like to be a United States Senator, and might even have Presidential ambitions. The second popularly elected African American Governor, he would become the seventh African American Senator, and the fifth by popular election.

But also, believe it or not, the new Congressman replacing retiring Representative Barney Frank is Joseph Kennedy III, the son of former Congressman Joseph Kennedy II, and the grandson of Robert Kennedy.

While he only takes the oath of office in January, the new young (32) Congressman with the famous last name could be the choice of the voters in the primary, bringing back a Kennedy to the US Senate.

While he has no real experience to speak of, young Joe could follow in the model of his great uncle, Ted Kennedy, who came to the Senate at age 30 untested, but ended up having a long, distinguished career of 47 years before his death in 2009.

Certainly, a Brown-Kennedy or a Brown-Patrick race would draw a lot of interest, and the odds of the seat of John Kerry remaining Democratic would be quite high, since Brown did poorly in the race against Elizabeth Warren, and has minimum funds left for another race in heavily Democratic Massachusetts.

It would be the first interesting political race of 2013!

Future Potential Presidential Nomination Conflict In Several States For 2016

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It is never too early to think ahead about the Presidential Election of 2016, and as pundits start debating and arguing about potential candidacies for President, it turns out that several states could witness a battle for the nomination among their own office holders, as witness the following:

New York–Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Governor Andrew Cuomo, and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand–all Democrats

Florida—Former Governor Jeb Bush, Governor Rick Scott, and Senator Marco Rubio–all Republicans.

Virginia—Governor Bob McDonnell, Republican, and Senator Mark Warner, Democrat.

Massachusetts—Governor Deval Patrick and Senator Elizabeth Warren–both Democrats.

New Jersey—Governor Chris Christie, Republican, and Newark Mayor Cory Booker, Democrat,

Wisconsin—Governor Scott Walker and Congressman Paul Ryan–both Republicans.

Texas—Governor Rick Perry and Senator Ted Cruz–both Republicans, and Julian Castro Mayor of San Antonio, Democrat

The question is whether if Hillary Clinton ran for President, would Governor Cuomo or Senator Gillibrand challenge her? But also, if Governor Cuomo ran for President, in the absence of Clinton, would Senator Gillibrand also contend?

Also, if former Governor Jeb Bush ran, would Governor Scott or Senator Rubio do the same? Or it could be put another way–would Jeb Bush run if Senator Rubio announced for President, since he has already taken the first step toward running by visiting Iowa, the first caucus state in 2016?

Also, if either Governor Patrick or Senator Warren ran, would the other run?

Also, if either Governor Perry or Senator Cruz ran, would the other enter the race?

And if either Governor Walker or Congressman Ryan announced, would the other run?

The Virginia, New Jersey and Texas cases, with office holders of both parties possible nominees, is more likely to occur, although the odds of Cory Booker or Julian Castro running in New Jersey and Texas likely will be based on Booker defeating Chris Christie in next year’s gubernatorial race, and Castro running for statewide office and winning, such as for Governor or Senator in 2014.

The Virginia rivalry between Republican Governor Bob McDonnell and Democratic former Governor and now Senator Mark Warner is a more likely reality.

There certainly are a lot of possibilities emerging, with the political “junkies” having a feast of speculation!

Rumors Of Replacements For State Department And Defense Department: John Kerry Or Susan Rice, And Chuck Hagel?

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As the second Obama Administration is being organized, there are many rumors about members of the Cabinet leaving.

Among them are Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, and the suggestions being discussed are very intriguing.

It is thought that Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic Presidential nominee, might be angling for the State Department, with his years of experience as Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman as his major credential. Also, United Nations Ambassador Susan Rice is a second thought.

If Kerry left the Senate, it would open up his seat, and Republican Senator Scott Brown, who just lost his seat to Elizabeth Warren, would certainly campaign for it, against an unknown Democrat.

And if Rice received the position, she would be the fourth woman to be in that position, and the second black woman, and the third black person—following Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice, as well as Madeleine Albright and Hillary Clinton.

For the Defense Department, if and when Panetta leaves, the rumor is that former Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, a Republican, and very reputable, would take the position, and that would mark the second Republican Secretary of Defense for Obama, after Robert Gates.

Having both Kerry and Hagel as important cabinet members would be fantastic, and if Rice was selected, she would also be the second black woman in that position with the name of Rice!

Five Republican Senate Seats In Danger Of Being Won By Democrats In 2012

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The usual political line is that the Democrats are in danger of losing control of the Senate, with 23 Democratic or Independent seats up for election in 2012, as compared to only 10 Republican seats.

But actually, five of the ten GOP Senate seats are in play, with Republicans on the defensive!

This includes:

Maine—where retiring Senator Olympia Snowe seems likely to be replaced by Independent Angus King, former Governor of the state, thought to be likely to caucus with the Democrats if he wins, based on greater agreement with Democratic principles.

Massachusetts—where Senator Scott Brown, who replaced Ted Kennedy in 2010, is behind in many polls to consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren, in a state so strongly Democratic that Brown’s victory in 2010 was seen as an outlier.

Indiana—where retiring Senator Richard Lugar may be replaced by Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly , because the GOP nominee, Richard Mourdock, has been labeled a Tea Party extremist, unwilling to work across the aisle with Democrats.

Nevada—where appointed Senator Dean Heller is having a rough race against long term Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley.

Arizona—where Senator Jon Kyl is retiring, but the Republican nominee, Jeff Flake, is facing a surprisingly tough battle against Democrat Richard Carmona. former Surgeon General of the United States. Carmona has a distinguished law enforcement and medical career, and is seen as having a really good chance to replace Kyl, and being Hispanic (Puerto Rican) in Arizona is certainly a positive, as well as his biography.

If one had to put betting money on these five races, it would be a good bet that Maine, Massachusetts, and Arizona will go Democratic in Senate races, with Indiana and Nevada tougher races.

That would mean a three seat gain for the Democrats, making it much tougher for Republicans to become a majority, as then they would need at least six to seven Democratic held seats out of 12 seats seen as in play, with 11 others of the total 23 seats seen as NOT in play!

An analysis of Democratic seats in contention will follow in the coming days!

Scott Brown Vs. Elizabeth Warren: The Key Senate Race Above All Others!

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Massachusetts Republican Senator Scott Brown is engaged in the most combative Senate race of all against Harvard Law Professor Elizabeth Warren for the Senate seat held for nearly 47 years by Ted Kennedy.

Brown won a surprising victory in the special election in 2010 to succeed Kennedy for the rest of his term, and is the only Republican to represent the state of Massachusetts, which has an all Democratic House delegation, a Democratic Governor, and a dominant Democratic majority in the state legislature.

Brown has had a difficult course to follow, and has tried to come across as moderate, like Maine Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, but he has voted over 90 percent of the time with his party, and has refused to back President Obama on almost anything he asked for, including jobs legislation, and is now acting very aggressively against his opponent, who worked with Obama, and helped to start the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, although GOP Senate opposition prevented her from running this new agency, so she decided to run for the Senate. Brown has come across as in bed with Wall Street, gaining a lot of financial support from top banking and corporate interests.

Elizabeth Warren is an inspiring candidate, who clearly is for the middle class and the poor, and comes across as a hero of progressives, who supports the DREAM Act, which Brown is against, and is clearly a strong Obama supporter who would fight for progressive causes in the manner that Ted Kennedy did for so long!

Their second debate last night in Massachusetts demonstrated that Brown is ready to use rhetoric in a way that is divisive, including his derision of Warren as being a professor who may control her students but not him; saying she is not native American because of her appearance despite her assertions that she is; allowing his staff to make fun of native Americans publicly; and making clear that he considers her a left wing extremist not in the mainstream, as he claims he is. When he said that Antonin Scalia was his favorite Supreme Court Justice, then swung to Anthony Kennedy, John Roberts, and finally Sonia Sotomayor, the audience seemed to turn against him.

The debate brought up the issue that if Brown is reelected, he could decide a Republican majority in the Senate, and would have a dramatic effect on Supreme Court appointments of the next President, and would certainly NOT, based on his record and his rhetoric, be following in the tradition of Ted Kennedy!

This race is crucial to the future of the Obama Presidency in so many ways, and with Obama certain to win the state of Massachusetts, the hope is that he will have adequate coat tails to carry Warren into the Senate as his champion, and have Warren join Bernie Sanders and others in promoting the progressive agenda over the next four years!