Electoral College

The Hispanic Future Of America: Danger For The Republican Party!

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New Census Bureau statistics indicate that the Hispanic population is now 50 million, one out of every six Americans, the largest minority in the United States.

Also, one out of every four children in America is Hispanic, and the largest electoral vote states, as well as smaller ones, are being impacted by the growth of Hispanic population, which bodes ill for the future of the anti immigrant, anti Hispanic Republican Party, which has been sowing hate and narrow mindedness in Arizona, Texas, Florida, Colorado, North Carolina and Georgia among other states, but which is guaranteed to reverberate on them over the next decade and beyond!

As young Hispanics become adults, the effect on politics will be massive, and right now, as it is, 60 percent of Hispanics vote Democratic, an overwhelming lead that makes it likely that Texas, in particular, will move from being a Republican state to the Democrats over time, and if that does occur, then the Republican Party will lose the 38 electoral votes of the Lone Star state, and added to California and New York remaining Democratic in presidential elections, the effect will be to make it impossible for Republicans to win the White House in future years!

So as long as the Republicans continue their assault on illegal immigration in such a vicious manner, they will sow the seeds of becoming a permanent minority in American politics, even though right now some think they are on the ascendancy.

In reality, the Republican Party is in the process of committing political suicide!

The States That Will Matter The Most In 2012 Presidential Election

Ronald 1 Comment

When one looks ahead to the 2012 Presidential Election, it is clear what the major battlegrounds will be.

As stated earlier, the Midwest is the major area of the country that will decide who is inaugurated President on January 20, 2013!

President Obama won all of the Midwest except for Missouri, but he is unlikely to win Indiana and Iowa in 2012, and Ohio and Missouri will be difficult, but he will win Illinois and seems likely to win the upper Midwest of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan, particularly after the reaction against Scott Walker in Wisconsin spurred public opinion in favor of the rights of labor to collective bargaining.

North Carolina will be hard to hold on to in the South, but Virginia, with its northern areas bordering on the nation’s capital, and Florida, with South Florida a strong Democratic stronghold and growing anger against Rick Scott’s agenda in the Sunshine State, is also likely to stay Democratic.

In the Far West, it seems likely that Colorado and Nevada will stay Democratic, along with New Mexico, and that Arizona, a center of turmoil similar to Wisconsin and Florida, could go to the Democrats in a close finish.

Pennsylvania also seems likely to stay with the Democrats, as well as the Atlantic and Pacific Coast states.

In summary, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, and Iowa may be lost, but Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada will likely stay with the Democrats, and Arizona and Missouri may switch, with Pennsylvania and Ohio seen likely to be a good possibility as well in a close race, with Ohio less likely to stay Democratic.

With the fact that Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008, even the loss of a few states, but with a chance to gain other states, and with the reality that unemployment is now expected to dip to close to 7 percent by the fall of 2012, it seems clear that any Republican will have a rough time being elected President!

The Census Figures And The Republican Party: Not What It Seems!

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When the census figures came out a week ago, Republicans were rejoicing as the Sunbelt gained seats in the House of Representatives and in the Electoral College vote for President, but the true tale is that the growth of population does NOT favor the GOP long term, particularly if the Republicans do not adjust to the reality of immigration.

It is true that Texas and Florida gained four and two seats in the House of Representatives, along with one seat for Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South Carolina, Utah and Washington State.

But much of the growth in population was Hispanic or Latino, and with the GOP promoting a hard line on immigration, and preventing passage of the DREAM Act for immigrant children, there is a likelihood that Hispanics will NOT vote Republican in these states, and as the voting population grows in these areas, the Democrats have a very good chance of gaining power in many of the Sunbelt states over the next decade.

Additionally, the demographics shows the suburbs of major cities, which used to be reliably Republican, no longer are. The astounding statistic is that John McCain, who had more of an open mind on immigration when he ran for the Presidency in 2008, managed to lose all of the suburban counties surrounding New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit and Boston, as well as the majority of suburban counties surrounding St. Louis and Cleveland. Additionally, except for Orange Country, McCain lost all suburban counties in southern California, and won Orange County by the smallest margin of any Republican in modern times!

Women have been historically Democratic, and independents have moved in that direction, except in 2010, which is likely a blip on the map, not a trend. And even rich people and counties are more than ever moving toward the Democrats, and contributing more to the Democrats.

Not all rich people vote their pocketbook, but also vote on social issues, and the reality is that the number of “have nots” will always outnumber the “haves”, so for the GOP to work against the interests of the struggling middle class, as well as the poor, is counter productive in the long run.

So while the GOP might control redistricting in many significant states and have Governors of their party in control, trying to project a long term Republican advantage electorally is far from guaranteed!